Huge Ramblings today. Tons of fantasy hockey insight, trends- more than usual!

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Matt Moulson scored last night. His sixth. Can you imagine? We knew he fell on hard times. We expected as much. But six goals?

Buffalo signed a free agent out of the NCAA named Casey Nelson last week. A defenseman with above-average offense and very solid defensively. I didn’t think too much of it – perhaps a Danny DeKeyser, maybe? But last night he had two assists and now has four points in his three career NHL games. It’s enough of an impression to at least keep an eye on him for next year, though I doubt any defenseman for the Sabres will top 45 points in 2016-17 and if one does it will be Ristolainen. Nelson is being paired with Bogosian and you can read more on Nelson here.

It seems like every time I turn around Tom Kuhnhackl is lighting it up. But then I look at his game logs and I see that he’s just having the odd great game mixed in with lengthy droughts. His two points last night mark his third multi-point game in nine games…but the other six games were goose eggs. He’s had real solid ice time these last three games and his hits and blocked shots (for a forward) are nothing to sneeze at. He’s looking like a 200-hit forward (potentially).

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Thomas Greiss ended a 1-5-1 skid with a solid performance against Carolina, stopping 27 of 28. The Isles play Columbus and Pittsburgh next and I think he’s back to being a safe play for now.

My pick to lead the NHL in second-half scoring, John Tavares, is crapping the bed. He has four points in his last eight games and right now will be lucky to have 65 points at the end of the season (he has 59). Yes, he’s becoming a more complete player and in the long run it will push him into the elite…but that’s of little consolation to his fantasy owners. Unless those owners are in a keeper league and can reap the benefits over the next decade. Let’s hope this ‘learning curve (?)’ doesn’t bleed into next season.

As long as Tavares is a 65-point player, the rest of the roster suffers offensively. When he gets back up to being an 85-point guy there will be about six Islanders who suddenly spike in value.

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Elias Lindholm may be disappointing with his production, but lately his other numbers have been ridiculous. Last night he had five SOG, three hits and three BLKS. In the last seven games he has 22 shots, 19 hits and 10 BLKS (amazing for a forward). You can get data like this easily in his game log (found here – bookmark it).

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Six losses in seven games for the Bruins. Are they going to back into the playoffs? Suddenly the Flyers are a better team (one point back but in two fewer games) and the Red Wings are just a point behind. Blame Boston’s atrocious home record of 16-17-5.

How did Tuukka Rask lose that game? I didn’t see it. How did it happen? He faced 15 freakin’ shots! If your team holds the opposition to 15 shots…and said opposition boasts all of one player who can score (seriously)…how do you not win? In his last six games, Rask is 1-5-0, 2.48 GAA and 0.901 SV%. Not ugly numbers at all (other than the win/loss ratio), so what’s going on? This stretch of games is what separates the Patrick Roys (the goalies who want it) from the wannabes.

Brad Marchand scored his first goal in nine games. Suddenly, his reaching the 40-goal mark has become unlikely. He needs five in the remaining five games.

Brett Connolly left the game with an injury (knee). Not that it matters to any fantasy owners, given his big one point in his last 10 games.

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Brutal! Duncan Keith going “oops…I was just, uh, swinging my stick around”. He got the game misconduct and to me this is a two- or three-game suspension so stay tuned for that:

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Artemi Panarin has two points in his last nine games and is minus-5 in that span. You knew he wasn’t going to keep up his insane pace, but even as recently as early February I kinda thought he’d get 70 points. Six points in 12 games for Panarin’s linemate Patrick Kane (minus-7). Kane’s pace is now 100 points exactly. He needs six points in five games.

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Thomas Vanek has been back for three games now since being scratched, and he has zip to show for it. Not even a shot on goal last night.

Erik Haula started the season on a nine-game pointless drought. He also went 15 games without a point in December. But currently he has points in nine consecutive games (plus-7). The way he’s played in the second half…this has to be enough momentum to carry into next season, no? Without the sluggish start he could easily be a 55-point player. I’d bank on 45 and hope for more. He doesn’t have the greatest upside, but he can be useful in fantasy.

With 10 points in his last nine games, Nino Niederreiter is at 43 points and could flirt with 50 – easily a career high. Just a great stepping stone. He’s now blossoming into that power forward we envisioned six years ago. See how patient you need to be with stud prospects who just get drafted? In leagues he was a hot commodity when he was drafted, still coveted a year later…then his price came down when he was back in the AHL. A couple of years after that, his owners soured on him and gave him up for a song. And now, nearly six years after playing his first NHL game, he is finally just starting to ascend to fantasy stud status.

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As I write the Ramblings after the game, I click the NHL’s player profile and the game logs don’t have the game in yet. I got to the Frozen Pool profile and not only is the game in there (even during the game), but also the line combo (during the game)….

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Montreal rookie Sven Andrighetto has seven points in his last eight games. His ice time has been very strong over the last nine games and his PP time is up over 50% of the team’s available (i.e. he’s been on the first unit). If you want help with offense and SOG, he’s probably sitting on the wire and he’s worth a grab.

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Ray Emery has joined the Flyers on a tryout basis. This means two things. One, that Michal Neuvirth is not coming back soon. And two, the team doesn’t trust Anthony Stolarz. I honestly thought Stolarz was fairly close – as in, he could back up next season. But clearly not. Read more on Stolarz here.

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Petr Mrazek was pulled for the fifth time in 19 games. He gave up two goals on seven shots, so he was on a short leash. His full season numbers are still fantastic so I have zero worries about him for next year. Frankly, it’s Jeff Blashill I’m worried about…

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Oh boy. So the underrated Connor Brown can pile up the points at the NHL level too? So often you see prospects put up huge points at the lower levels, but there is something in their game that sees to it that they get very little in the way of opportunity. Nine times out of 10. But a lot of these guys, despite the glaring weakness, will put up the numbers in the right situation. Look at Jason Allison! I don’t care if he’s wading through molasses to get to the net, if he’s getting 90 points I’d put him out there. Anyway, Brown was drafted 156^th in 2012. And after getting 128 points in the OHL in 2013-14 he led all AHL rookies in scoring with 61 points last year. Now he’s up with the Leafs. He tallied three assists last night and has six points in seven career NHL games. I think the Leafs are going to sign some good free agents this summer and in fact I guarantee it. So the two or three spots that remain for prospects will be hotly contested. But if Brown keeps doing this, which of Nikita Soshnikov, William Nylander and Zach Hyman get demoted? Read more on Brown here.

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Jonathan Bernier’s last six games: 4-2-0, 1.53 GAA and 0.952 SV%

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Brian Elliott gave up a goal! After returning from injury he had shutouts in three consecutive games, but was then rested on Saturday while Jake Allen pitched a shutout. So the Blues have gone four straight without giving up a goal. Colorado finally solved them last night at the end of the first, but that’s all they would score. Elliott has stopped 91 of 92 shots.

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Elliott Friedman’s 30 Thoughts went up yesterday and had some fantastic insight as always. But this time it’s enough to make me want to discuss it here.

1. He says that Peter Mueller is looking at an NHL return. This isn’t just the crappy Mueller who failed to make the Blues last year on a tryout, but rather a new Mueller. ‘New’ in the sense that he may work with Adam Oates, who has been working with players on key skills that they could improve on. Mueller, in my opinion, plays the game different from how he approached things prior to his serious concussions. If Oates can break that barrier down, then you may have something. And as Friedman points out, Mueller is 28 and in his prime.

2. The smart money is on the Toronto Maple Leafs signing Jimmy Vesey. I get into it more here, but basically the Leafs drafted his brother and hired his father. And now, as you know, he told the Predators that he won’t sign with them but will instead explore free agency.

3. Another great point Friedman makes is the fact that five of the top nine players in total games played (playoffs and season) over the last six years are Chicago players. Fatigue? Could be a reason for their little slowdown. Brent Seabrook has played 618 regular season and playoff games since 2009-10, that’s more than any other player.

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Thank you everyone who posted a question for me in the forum Monday. I answered about 35 of them. I’m active in the forum, generally, but especially this week. I tend to be in there a lot while working on the Fantasy Prospects Report – it makes for a nice break every hour or so. Which means if you have a question and post a thread, chances are I will see it.

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Rick Roos gives you his final “Buy Low and Sell High” article for the season, courtesy of Sportsnet. Read it here.

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The 10^th annual DobberHockey Interactive Playoff Draft List is released a week from Friday. If you’ve never bought it before, it’s an excel spreadsheet with my formulas in it. On one tab are my picks – that’s if you need something quick, or you’re lazy, or you just really really trust me. On the main tab though, you select the winners of each round. Games and production for each player adjusts accordingly. You then run the list and can sort by team or by points. Then you print. Run multiple scenarios. Hell, I run two scenarios and print them both. Depending on how the draft starts, by the end of the second round I set aside one list and roll with the other one. Because  you can’t have just one game plan – what if your game plan is to push for Washington, but then you pick eighth and their top six scorers were already taken? Well then, you have to discard that particular list/scenario and roll with Plan B. I do it every year and honestly I probably win these things once every four years. That’s a very good success rate.

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And the countdown continues. Steve Laidlaw’s Ramblings – just three to go! His last day is Saturday and then he’s off until September. You’ll probably see him do two or three Ramblings over the summer whenever there is downtime for him, but his regular duties will shift to Cliffy and Parker!

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Any issues with the footer loading still? I got it fixed. So they say. So let me know if they’re wrong and it’s still broken. Looks good to me though.

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Late late late. Shame on you Jake Virtanen: