Taking a close look at why two young players – Kevin Hayes and Ryan Strome – took a step back this season…

This week we shine the Cage Match spotlight on two young players who took a step back in production this season – Ryan Strome and Kevin Hayes. Can both right their ships in 2016-17, and can poolies still bank on either one ultimately fulfilling lofty expectations that accompanied them into 2015-16? Time to find out – Cage Match starts now!

Career Path and Contract Status

Strome was selected 5th overall in 2011 after posting 106 points in 65 games to finish 3rd in OHL scoring for 2010-11. New York opted to not rush Strome’s development, allowing him to return to the OHL for two more seasons, where he equaled his 1.63 points per game pace of 2010-11 in the form of 162 points in 99 more games.

After 37 games in both the AHL (49 points) and the NHL (18 points) for 2013-14, it was all but certain Strome would remain with the Isles for the entire 2014-15 campaign. And that he did, posting 50 points in 81 games while showing rare consistency for a 21 year old by scoring at least seven points in every full month of the season. So imagine the surprise of poolies when Strome dropped all the way down to 28 points in 71 games this season, failing to score seven points in any single month and even ending up briefly back in the AHL.

Hayes was drafted 24th overall in 2010 by the Blackhawks. He opted to play four years of college hockey, where he improved his point per game output each season, culminating in 65 points in 39 games in 2013-14. During this time Hayes hadn’t signed with the Blackhawks, who ultimately lost his rights in August 2014, followed by Hayes immediately signing with the Rangers as a UFA.

In 2014-15 Hayes stepped in and played 79 games for the Blue Shirts, producing a very solid 45 points, only to then dip to 36 points this season. Although he didn’t implode as badly as Strome, Hayes’ drop-off was at least as disappointing to astute poolies, what with 29 of Hayes’ 45 points in 2014-15 having come in his final 36 games, resulting in 2015-16 expectations that arguably rivaled those for Strome.

Both players are RFAs this summer. Strome’s just completed ELC counted $0.863M against the cap per season and had an AAV of $1.712M, while Hayes’s deal had a similar yearly cap hit ($0.9M) but more than double ($3.75M) the AAV of Strome’s.

Ice Time

I thought this data might offer a justification for each player’s decreased production; but as we can see, that’s simply not the case. In fact, Hayes not only gained 0:37 of Total Ice Time, but his percentage of Ice Time spent on the PP nearly tripled (from 4.6% to 11.5%) while shedding 0:25 of SH Ice Time.

For Hayes to have seen his production drop in the face of these Ice Time improvements is concerning; however, the news is arguably worse for Strome. That’s because Strome’s Total Ice Time was actually up by a few seconds; and although he lost 0:39 of PP Ice Time per game, he shed nearly as much SH Ice Time (0:35). In view of Strome’s Ice Time this season versus last, perhaps it could’ve been reasonable for him to have stayed at or near the 45 point range; but to see his point total plummet by nearly 50% was an entirely different – and troubling – situation.

The million dollar question is what will happen to their Ice Times next season (and beyond). I use the phrase “million dollar question” on purpose, since the answer will depend at least somewhat on the amount (and term) of each player’s RFA deal this summer, although chances are neither will enjoy a big advantage over the other in this area, given their ages and career outputs this far.

A related factor that will bear upon the near term Ice Time for both players is the top six depth/ options on their respective teams for 2015-16. The Rangers have no UFAs that were ahead of Hayes on the depth chart, which in turn might make it more difficult for him to see more (or better quality) Ice Time next season. On the other hand, the Islanders are at risk of losing two major offensive contributors in Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielsen as UFAs. Even if the Islanders opt to bring in a UFA forward (or even two), when the dust settles there’s a better chance that Strome will be positioned for additional and/or improved Ice Time due to offseason personal moves of his team than Hayes, whose Rangers will likely stick to the status quo.

Secondary Categories

What jumps off the page is Strome’s SOG per game dropping each season. There’s at least a small silver lining in that he had only 18 SOG in 12 games before his “wake up call” demotion to the AHL, which means he upped his average to exactly 2 SOG per game in 59 NHL contests once he returned. Although that still would amount to a continued downward trend, one can argue the situation isn’t quite as bad as it might first appear. On the other hand, a glass half empty mentality would view 2 SOG per game as still quite lackluster in view of his past totals, whereby if he can’t even match his rate from 2014-15 after being demoted, then what hope is there that he’ll get the message and right his ship?

Hayes’ SOG rate increased; however, in the face of his drop in points, that raises its own set of concerns, since you’d expect his points to increase as well, rather than fall, given that he’s shooting the puck more. Otherwise, things stayed pretty much the same across the board for Hayes, who, like Strome, has average to slightly below average production in PIM, Hits, and Blocked Shots.

If we’re looking for reason to be optimistic with Hayes, he has produced above 0.5 points per game over his young NHL career despite barely getting any PP Points. But just as was the case with Strome, you can flip that optimism around and argue that if Hayes was unable to produce more on the PP despite his PP Ice Time nearly tripling from 2014-15 to 2015-16, that doesn’t bode well for him getting more PP Ice Time or improving his output with the man advantage.

Luck-Based Metrics

Hayes’ 5×4 IPP for 2014-15 isn’t included in the table because he didn’t have the required 50+ minutes of 5×4 Ice Time for it to be charted.

This data helps paint a clearer picture for both players. We can understand why Hayes’ production dropped, as not only was his Shooting % a bit on the high side last season, so too was his 5×5 IPP. But in digging up IPP data I noticed something interesting – Hayes led all NHL forwards in primary assists for 2014-15. Yes – all forwards. And Strome was fifth! If we look at the past seven full seasons, only one player (Gabriel Landeskog) who finished in the top five in primary assists in at least one of those seven seasons has yet to post 70+ points in a campaign, and Landeskog has hit 65 points. While of course history is not always repeated, this gives poolies reason for optimism regarding both players, especially in the face of their 2015-16 declines in production.

And it’s a good thing there’s at least some reason for encouragement, since much of the other data here is disconcerting. After all, Hayes saw his points total fall despite his OZ% actually rising to 62.1%, which was 14th highest among 239 forwards who played 60+ games this season. Meanwhile, Strome’s OZ% increased substantially; and although his 5×5 IPP fell, his 5×4 IPP was up considerably.

What we see is both players having produced worse than 2014-15 despite their teams essentially having bent over backwards to put them in a more production-friendly playing environment for 2015-16. In the face of data like this, poolies have to stop and wonder two things – (1) do both players truly have what it takes to succeed, and (2) are they putting forth enough effort to give their teams confidence in them?

Who Wins?

At the outset, I’ll say that despite what was said above, each player could represent a decent “how the mighty has fallen” type of buy low in fantasy. By that I mean – when younger players enter a season with significant accompanying hype and expectations, then don’t deliver, things tend to make a 180, leaving them underhyped and undervalued in terms of fantasy for the next season.

Assuming that, indeed, both players see their values drop considerably and to roughly the same level, Strome wins the match. Not only did he already hit the 50 point mark, but he did so without a lot of unsustainable luck. Yes – his 2014-15 was terrible; however, it’s something one would think both Strome and the Isles can write off and move on from. Plus, the Islanders will have an offensive void based on the likely departures of Okposo and Nielsen, with Strome figuring to get an Ice Time and opportunity boost even if the Islanders sign a UFA or perhaps two.

Hayes has shown he has talent, what with leading all NHL forwards in primary assists in 2014-15. But his better production that season can be more easily linked to good luck, in the form of a high 5×5 IPP and OZ% and a somewhat higher Shooting %. And what’s also troubling is his OZ% rose even higher this season amid his decreased production. Plus, there’s unlikely to be added top six time available to Hayes next season.

In one-year leagues, Strome is a potential sleeper – provided you resist the urge to grab him too early. If he’s still around when 40 point forwards are being taken, then he’s probably worth a shot, since unlike most in that range he has a realistic chance at giving your team 50+ points if things line up well for him. As for Hayes, he’ll most likely finish in the 35-45 point range again. Thus, tread lightly; and maybe look to him as a waiver wire grab if he plays his heart out or there are injuries to top Ranger forwards.

If you own both players in keepers, you should hold and hope. As noted above, it’s possible that both could be keeper league buy lows, although you might want to wait to land Hayes, since things aren’t aligned for him succeed in 2016-17, in which case his price could go down even further.