Ramblings: Reflecting on the Isles; More on Caggiula (May 9)

Dobber

2016-05-09

Ramblings: Isles post-mortem; more thoughts on Caggiula; Khokh is gone; Boudreau should relax; and more…

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In case you don’t follow me on Twitter or missed this Thursday, or you don’t subscribe to our newsletter, this year’s products are now available for presale in the shop. The first product – the Fantasy Prospects Report – will be available for download on June 1. That’s 23 days away!

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Spoiler Alert: The Islanders are out.

Very unexpected, at least for me. After seeing a first round in which John Tavares refused to let his team lose, this round was a big disappointment. And I say this even though a Tampa Bay win pretty much ensures that I’ll defend my playoff trophy in my one (27-year) keeper league. I was just certain that the Isles would push through. But TB shut Tavares down. Pointless in his last four games after posting 10 points in seven games.

He reminded me of Steve Yzerman in that first round (ironically, now the GM of Tampa Bay), and now I can’t help but think of what Yzerman went through to win a Cup. At the age of 30 and 31, Yzerman took a lot of flack. “Not a leader”, or “unable to push his team over the top”. He had taken the Wings to the Final, but lost to New Jersey in four straight. Then he took the Wings to the Semi-Final, but lost to the Avs. Each time, he learned. The first seven years of his career were spent just trying to take the ‘loser’ Red Wings safely and consistently out of the basement and into the playoffs. Then it was a struggle to get out of the second round. With each passing year he seemed to get more willpower. It took him until the age of 32 before he won his first Stanley Cup and now what is his legacy? Does anyone even remember that his leadership was once questioned? Hell no.

So Tavares learned a little more this year, and he took his team a little further. Next year I think he’ll push even harder. He’ll be that much more difficult to contain.

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So what can the Islanders blame? Injuries? Well…no. Sure, Jaroslav Halak, Mikhail Grabovski and Anders Lee would have helped. But, uh…so would Steven Stamkos, Anton Stralman and JT Brown!

Newsday describes Halak’s groin injury as “severe”. He still has two years on his contract at $4.5 million. Assuming he gets healthy with a full summer off, he has to be their No.1 goalie next season. That’s too much to stick on the bench, though we’ve seen that sort of thing before (ahem – Howard). But do you think Halak’s agent, Allan Walsh, will sit quietly while his client is stuck as a backup? Hell no.

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The Islanders in the playoffs (in no particular order)…

Most Impressive: John Tavares, Alan Quine, Shane Prince, Ryan Pulock

Least Impressive: Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome, Johnny Boychuk

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All four of Nikita Kucherov’s goals in this series were scored in the third period. Nothing more I can say about this guy that I haven’t already said.

Don’t look now but Jonathan Drouin has nine points in 10 playoff games.

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The Islanders have three unrestricted free agents coming up – Kyle Okposo, Frans Nielsen and Matt Martin. I have a feeling that Nielsen re-signs with them, but they lose the other two. Just a gut feeling, nothing more to base it on.

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I got into a bit of a Twitter conversation about Drake Caggiula, in that they disagreed with Ian Gooding that he was a bad fit with Edmonton. After first explaining that I didn’t write those Ramblings (they just appeared on my Twitterfeed), I nonetheless agreed with Gooding. In fact, when I saw the news as to where he signed, my first thought was – horrible. My second thought was that he’d be a great fit for Philadelphia. My third thought was Vancouver, which is what Gooding was thinking.

Players and their agents need to think about their best odds of becoming an NHLer. Players, because that’s ultimately the goal (and don’t assume it will come to pass – just ask Greg Carey or Matt Carey or Casey Wellman or Stephane Da Costa). Agents, because they want to line their pockets with cash and the best way to do that is to see to it that their client gets an NHL salary. You need to identify the teams that have a need for your skill set, either immediately or within two or three seasons depending on the player’s age. Because once he’s 26, he’s not getting a second look in training camp.

Do the Oilers have a need for a small (5-9, 170), skilled player who could thrive in the top six but struggle in the bottom six? Uh, hasn’t that been their problem for two or three years now – too many players of that particular stock? Even if the Oilers get rid of Nail Yakupov this summer and they draft a defenseman or a checking-line forward, they still have the top six locked up. No room for Caggiula, even if Ryan Nugent-Hopkins was moved too. Even if Caggiula was moved to the wing. But let’s assume that the amount of top draft picks the Oilers trade this summer is equal to the number of top draft picks they’ve traded in the last five summers – zero. They may not trade to clear space at all and in fact that’s even likely given their track record! Granted, Caggiula could force the issue by playing some lights-out hockey in training camp. But why put it to such chance?

Dumbest reason I’ve seen so far: “because he gets a shot at playing with Connor McDavid.” It might be accurate, but that doesn’t make it any less done. Again – you have to look out for numero uno.

Anyway, Caggiula had several teams that he could have signed with and had increased odds of making the squad. Philly, Vancouver, Pittsburgh, Carolina. Could you imagine the Penguins doing with Caggiula what the Blackhawks did with Panarin?

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Montreal prospect Artturi Lehkonen signed an ELC with the Habs and will cross the pond to play in Hamilton next season. The Finn, who is profiled in the upcoming Fantasy Prospects Report, has scoring-line upside and ranks 79th on my Prospects List.

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Well, it’s official. Alex Khokhlachev has signed to play for SKA St. Petersburg of the KHL next season. And that closes the book on his NHL dream. I doubt we see him back here to take another crack at it, but stranger things have happened.

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Again I’ll say this – big mistake for the Ducks to fire Bruce Boudreau and good on the Wild for hiring him. But I’m curious as to why he rushed the decision? He didn’t even take a moment to sit on his deck and enjoy a cold one. It seemed like he just hopped on a plane and flew across the continent every three or four days until he decided on a job. He had a job waiting for him. Several teams wanted him. So why not take a two-week vacation and make a decision in June or July? He’d probably drive his salary up by delaying, too. So why did he rush it? In fact, he didn't even need to interview. He could have just had his agent tell teams "if you want him, make an offer, starting with a blank check". Then when he returns from his tropical island he could have picked which team he wants to coach and filled in whatever number he wanted on the contract. Some people just don't know how to stop working…

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Wanna see a sample of what Drake Caggiula does?

 

 

16 Comments

  1. isle b. 2016-05-09 at 02:16

    I’d be shocked if Matt Martin doesn’t re-sign with the Isles, surprised if Nielsen walks, and be surprised if Okposo doesn’t walk.

    Martin: 90% stays w/ the Isles
    Nielsen: 80% stays w/ the Isles
    Okposo 25% stays w/ the Isles

    • Phil 2016-05-09 at 05:27

      My feeling as well.

    • Dobber Sports 2016-05-09 at 06:42

      I’m more 50-80-10 in your order

      • isle b. 2016-05-09 at 14:17

        I don’t know. Martin seems pretty plugged into the NY/LI community and breaking up that 4th line would be like breaking up the Hanson brothers (the Charlestown Chiefs kind, not the boy band kind).

  2. Striker 2016-05-09 at 06:46

    I wouldn’t be so sure that NYI retains any other than Martin. With the move to the Barkley Center NYI has lost 2000 seats per game of revenue. Perhaps ticket prices were higher to help off set this decline in ticket sales this year but NYI lost 14 million last season so I would be surprised if Snow can afford to keep Nielsen as well. He easily get 5 mil per as a UFA.

    With all the other RFA’s to be signed & other UFA’s to be signed or replaced I just don’t see NYI paying Nielsen. NYI has a bunch of kids coming several of who are ready if not very close & I assume Nielsen will be replaced in trade when Hamonic is moved.

    I know Snow wants a similar D for Hamonic; is there 1, his contract makes him unique, but that just doesn’t make sense to me from another teams perspective. I guess a Hamonic for Trouba is a possibility but that contract situation looks to be a mess potentially & has hold out written all over it if he ends up having to negotiate with Snow.

    I see RNH & Davidsson coming from Edm for Hamonic & something; some form of contract dump. NYI then signs a Demers or Polak as a UFA a B grade Dman a 4/5 or 5/6 guy to round out their top 8. Pulock will be a full time NHLer next season.

    • Dobber Sports 2016-05-09 at 06:52

      Don’t forget – new Islanders ownership fully takes over now. Money won’t be an object in their first year at the helm

      • Striker 2016-05-09 at 07:09

        I’ll believe it when I see it. I have no reference point yet for new ownership & their potential willingness to spend. NYI has 11 forwards either signed or pending as RFA’s; Cizikas, Strome, Prince & Quine at forward & they have several prospects banging on the door. Martin makes 12. That doesn’t leave much room at the inn.

        RNH replaces Neilsen, Davidsson & a UFA Dman combined replace Hamonic & round out the 8 D.

        NYI’s roster is set for next season having to do essentially nothing but make 1 trade, sign 1 UFA Dman & promote 1 or 2 of the young studs coming & presto NYI will be better team. These kids, including Tavares still have room for significant growth & development.

    • number54 2016-05-09 at 10:04

      So in one breath you’ll say the Isles have money troubles and in the next you’re suggesting they pick up RNH, who’s due a cool $6mil? Just what kind of asset COULD the Isles even send back the other way to make $6mil look like a salary dump?

      • Striker 2016-05-09 at 10:15

        As I said I think another asset from NYI is sent in a salary dump.

        Did you read that far?

        I think that player will be Kulemin if you would like me to be specific. A player that would greatly help Edm’s bottom 6.

        Boom. The salaries balance out. NYI gets a #2 C to play behind Tavares at nominally more than it would cost to retain Neilsen & Prince assumes Kuelmin’s role for a fraction of the cost. Deal makes sense for both teams.

  3. Jeremy Campbell 2016-05-09 at 08:14

    Hedman went into beast mode vs the Isles, very impressive! Good hiring by the Wild to get Bruce! There are rumours that the Sens might get Crawford to be an assistant head coach, but if that happens that would be awkward for Boucher I think for many reasons. I’m hoping the Preds and Stars win tonight to force game 7’s!

  4. Tom Collins 2016-05-09 at 08:37

    Re: Drake Caggiula

    I wonder how much of that decision is the Panarin effect. I’m sure when he signed with the Hawks, people were thinking he could never crack the top six and would have been better going somewhere else. Now he’s a 70-point guy playing with Patrick Kane.

    On the flip side, look at guys like Justin Schultz. Signed with Edmonton thinking there was no competition and flopped.

    My guess is you’ll see more players sign for higher-risk/higher-reward teams rather than take the easy route (seriously, who was the last one to sign for an easier route that actually had an impact?).

    • number54 2016-05-09 at 10:00

      I’m going to disagree with you there in the sense that when Panarin signed, the Hawks were looking like they were in fire-sale mode, having Patrick Sharp on the way out, along with Richards and Versteeg. Panarin’s real competition at that point was… Andrew Shaw? Bryan Bickell? Marco Dano? If you look at the Hawks’ top-6 last summer, there were some obvious holes after Kane, Toews and Hossa. Basically, a spot there was Panarin’s to lose, and with a team that was still regarded as a legit contender. So in his case, I think when Chicago made an offer it would have been tough to turn down.

      • Stu Campaigne 2016-05-09 at 10:04

        Even more so when you consider that nobody had any idea if Kane was actually going to be allowed to participate in the upcoming season.

      • Tom Collins 2016-05-09 at 13:01

        Not really. Panarin signed last April, when the Hawks were on their way to a Cup ring and before Kane’s off-ice issues. The projected top six were probably projected to be Kane, Toews, Hossa, Shaw and Saad (taking Sharp out of the equation), I would have guessed at that time that Teravainen had a much better shot at the top-six than Panarin.

  5. Kevin 2016-05-09 at 09:55

    Dobber, only slightly related to hockey, but your favourite horse won the KD yesterday….Nyquist

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