Ramblings – Laine, Shipachyov, Kucherov and more (May 23)

Dobber

2016-05-23

Rambling about Patrick Laine, further thoughts on Vadim Shipachyov, Zack Kassian and more

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I have had much to say about the World Hockey Championship this year. I usually don’t because I only put on the game if I’m around a TV (or at my desk) and a game is on. But when it’s over I do like to review some of the performances by the young players. So while I don’t really care how Corey Perry does, I do care how Patrick Laine does. And while Mikko Koivu’s performance doesn’t interest me one way or the other, Cam Talbot’s does. I key in on the prospects and the lesser-proven guys. In the case of the prospects, it’s interesting to see how well they perform against men. Even though many key players are not at this tournament, many teams in it are still good enough to be considered NHL-caliber. So you’re seeing how players do in that environment.

Laine, who is projected to go second overall next month, was named the IIHF MVP of the tournament. He had seven goals and five assists in 10 games. He wasn’t the top scorer, but he was dominant in every game I saw (which admittedly was only two, plus a partial three more). His fantasy value in my eyes has increased dramatically over the last two months. I still think of Auston Matthews as elite to the caliber of a John Tavares – which is one step down from Crosby/Malkin/Ovechkin/McDavid. But I now consider Patrick Laine just a tiny bit below though. Like Stamkos. I don’t think getting a ‘Stamkos’ instead of a ‘Tavares’ is a huge letdown for fantasy owners.

Matthews, by the way, had nine points in 10 games.

The leading point-getter of the tournament is Vadim Shipachyov. According to several sources, including Igor Eronko and Elliotte Friedman, Shipachyov intends to play in the NHL next year. He made about $2.25 million in the KHL last season so I think the bar is set for him to make at least $3 million next season. I doubt a team goes further than two years to start, similar to Artemi Panarin. But Shipachyov is 29 years old so he may be looking for even more security. Shipachyov, who had 18 points in 10 tournament games), plays on a line with Artemi Panarin and Evgeni Dadonov (remember him?). He played with Panarin in the KHL. Friedman said that Montreal was in the lead to sign Shipachyov, but with how well he played at the Worlds, a handful of other teams are now in the mix.

Dadonov, who had 13 points in 10 games, is also looking to return to the NHL. He’s a free agent now, after being Carolina property since leaving the NHL several years ago. He was a 40-point guy with a bit of upside then…and he’s a 40-point guy with a bit of upside now. I have little interest in Dadonov. But sign me up for the Shipachyov fantasy hockey fan club. He won’t have a Panarin-like impact though – he’d need a Patrick Kane to do that. But he’ll put up his share of points, especially if he signs for three years or more because the team will have so much invested in him that they’ll give him all the opportunity in the world to thrive.

An interesting find while poring over the stats: former fringe NHLer Dustin Boyd finished sixth in faceoff success, winning 57 of 88 draws for 60.7%. That alone is deserving an NHL look in a checking capacity.

The aforementioned Talbot played 10 games for Team Canada and allowed just 10 goals (0.940 SV%).

I was disappointed to see promising Habs prospect Martin Reway manage just one point in seven games for Team Slovakia. Not when Tomas Jurco gets five points…You can read our scouting report on Reway here.

In case you were not yet aware, Team Canada won the Gold. I just realized I went through all of the above without once mentioning that…

Spector’s Hockey rounded up a few good rumors on Sunday (as usual). I have some comments. Basically because I can’t keep my opinions to myself even in the best of times…

– The Rangers aren’t getting Stamkos, come on. And they’re not going to get enough for Rick Nash to make trading him worth their while.

📢 advertisement:

– I 100% agree that the Penguins will leave Marc-Andre Fleury available next summer in the expansion draft. Getting that contract off the books and then riding Matt Murray is a very desirable outcome. Plus it would save them from losing another promising young player such as a Derrick Pouliot.

– The Oilers are looking for a backup goalie who will be good, yet won’t create a ‘goaltending controversy’ and will sign for around $1 million. Of the options listed – Chad Johnson, Al Montoya, Carter Hutton and Michael Hutchinson – I like Montoya the best.

Zack Kassian signed a one-year contract extension with the Oilers on the weekend. He’s taking a risk, but if he signed for two years it would be the Oilers taking the risk. We all know Kassian’s recent history. And I don’t pretend to know whether or not the guy is stable in terms of his mental state. But when he joined the Oilers I thought he looked good. He could fill a third-line role and sub in on a scoring line in short stints. As a power forward, the offense deemed to be his true potential often doesn’t show until he’s 26 or 27. His career high of 29 points (2013-14) will easily be surpassed if he can stay healthy enough to play 75 games. But he’s of fantasy interest because of his hits and PIM. Even playing 70 games he should take a run at 150 PIM.

Max Reinhart is reportedly poised to sign a contract with a team in the German League. The oldest Reinhart brother.

Trevor Daley is out for the postseason with a broken ankle and so Olli Maatta drew back into the lineup. He played well in 17:21 of action and picked up an assist and was plus-2. Justin Schultz saw the second most ice time for him in these playoffs at just over 15 minutes.

But the story of the game was of course Nikita Kucherov. His three points last night included scoring the tying goal and setting up the OT winner. Can you say ‘clutch’? He has seven points in his last three games, just when the Lightning needed him most. In his playoff career Kucherov has 42 points in 43 games.

According to Elias Sports Bureau, just three players have scored 10 or more postseason goals in two different postseasons before turning 23: Jeremy Roenick, Evgeni Malkin and now Nikita Kucherov (who has 11 now).

HBK watching the H-B-K line…

Striker 2016-05-23 at 09:29Log in to Reply

I 100% disagree Fleury will be exposed in expansion. Fleury will be traded this summer to save cap space & there by make this whole who do you protect argument moot.
- Dobber Sports 2016-05-23 at 09:38Log in to Reply
  
  If Fleury is traded then I 100% agree with you that he won’t be exposed in expansion. Duh. If a team acquires a player at great cost, that team will not expose the player in an expansion draft one year later.
  
  So “IF” the Penguins still own Fleury next summer, he will be exposed in an expansion draft.
  
  Quick question – do I need to add obvious disclaimers to each statement I make from now on? ;)
  - Striker 2016-05-24 at 07:38Log in to Reply
    
    No but why make this comment then?
    
    ” I 100% agree that the Penguins will leave Marc-Andre Fleury available next summer in the expansion draft. Getting that contract off the books and then riding Matt Murray is a very desirable outcome. Plus it would save them from losing another promising young player such as a Derrick Pouliot.”
    
    This is what I’m responding to. I’m sorry but I read this to mean this is what you believe. Are you speaking tongue in cheek? Your constantly making opinions on what players will do points wise in the future this is no different. Say what you think will happen then. I took you to believe this is what you feel will happen as you said I 100% agree that the Penguins will leave Marc-Andre Fleury Available. I’m not physic & wasn’t aware I was supposed to be looking for underlying meaning.
- Micchar 2016-05-23 at 18:23Log in to Reply
  
  What expansion draft is everyone talking about here? Why do so many keep talking about it like its a done deal?
  - Dobber Sports 2016-05-23 at 18:53Log in to Reply
    
    It’s widely accepted as something that will happen. NHL and NHLPA have spent much of the past two months discussing the rules of the expansion draft and honoring contracts, etc.
  - Striker 2016-05-23 at 22:14Log in to Reply
    
    Because we know it’s a given. I have been discussing expansion for close to 2 years & although I didn’t know the specific’s; # of keepers, I knew it was going down, it is all essentially playing out to plan. Expansion will happen by at least 1 team with play starting in the 2017-18 & I would be shocked if Quebec isn’t included making 2.
Striker 2016-05-23 at 09:33Log in to Reply

Is this your next Plotnikov assessment? I remember you trying to sell him hard after a decent showing in the worlds.

I wasn’t buying then & not buying now.
- Dobber Sports 2016-05-23 at 09:36Log in to Reply
  
  I don’t remember selling Plotnikov hard at all. Just floated him as a possibility. And I’m certainly not selling Shipvanyov hard now. There you go again, twisting words.
  - Striker 2016-05-24 at 07:53Log in to Reply
    
    I would suggest you go back & reread your ramblings from say early August through late September last season & read some of the comments threads. You’ll even find a few with us debating Plotinikov. With several other writers here as well. Playing against a bunch of border line NHL players except for primarily Canada is meaningless as to what a player may or may not accomplish in the NHL. Just go look at the US’s roster in this tournament. It’s a joke.
    
    As for Shipachyov.
    
    “But sign me up for the Shipachyov fantasy hockey fan club. He won’t have a Panarin-like impact though – he’d need a Patrick Kane to do that. But he’ll put up his share of points, especially if he signs for three years or more because the team will have so much invested in him that they’ll give him all the opportunity in the world to thrive.
    
    But sign me up for Shipachyov fantasy hockey fan club. That seems like a pretty wringing endorsement to me. Ok not a hard sell if you say so but that’s what I get from this comment & I’m not buying nor signing up, in fact I’ll simply stop posting comments as I don’t wish to argue either. Debate certainly but you take a personal approach as opposed to supporting your argument or opinion. “There you go twisting words again.” I’m not trying to twist words that’s what I get from your comments. Now if you would like to clarify them so I might better understand them awesome. I’m listening & reading.
    
    Better yet I’ll just stop reading.
    - Dobber Sports 2016-05-24 at 08:23Log in to Reply
      
      I’m sorry to let you down, Striker. I do my best but I’m just always so wrong. Can you start doing these Ramblings for me? Then I could free up that time for myself, rather than waste it.
      What did I say about Panarin last year? Were you “buying” it?
      
      I haven’t stated my motto for quite some time, so you may not have been a reader long enough to know what it is: “When you’re right 52% of the time, you’re wrong 48% of the time”. My goal is to give readers that 2% edge.
      
      If you think Shipachyov will have 0 advantage with a three-year one-way contract that pays good money, then I’ll leave you to that opinion. But to me, it nudges the odds of success upwards just a little. And fantasy hockey is all about taking advantage of those little probability increases.
      
      Last year Plotnikov got “some” hype. I projected 30 points for him in the Fantasy Guide. And this is what I said about Plotnikov:
      
      “Sergei Plotnikov – The 25-year-old boasts size (6-2, 205) and strength. He’s a power forward who has consistently produced offense at second-line rate in the KHL. He played in the World Championships with Malkin, though not on the same line. However, the plan is to start him on that line. Caution – the last hyped Euro free agent the team brought in was Janne Pesonen. Never heard of him? Exactly. ‘Plans’ don’t always translate into success and Euro free agents rarely succeed. Worth taking a flier on late in your draft, but make it as late as you can – he needs to produce well enough to keep Kunitz or Perron out of the top six, which is a very tall order.”
      
      I’m not seeing a lot of “selling” here. I’m seeing a lot of sensible strategy with caution.
      - Dobber Sports 2016-05-24 at 08:24
        
        I’ll await your retraction ;)
      - Striker 2016-05-24 at 08:51
        
        I drafted Panarin in 2 of my the 3 fantasy leagues, took him early to be sure no 1 would cut me grass, which happened in the 3rd league with an owner from 1 of the other leagues. I just actually acquired him in trade from that GM just before the playoffs started & our trade window opened again before the playoffs started. I sent Hall, Ellis; who I can’t protect, & a 7th round pick; 20 team league 12 man protected roster, 24 players, 14 dressed positionally head to head format, for Panarin, M. Murray; As Fleury will be traded this summer making Murray Pittsburgh’s #1, & a 2nd. Like taking candy from a Baby.
        
        I also took a flyer on him in 2 of my 20 team draft pools, 1 15 players deep, the other 20, all points driven; goals, assists, PPG’s, SHG’s & OTG’s generating bonus points & bonus points for D goals.
        
        In a few other posts, I supported your Panarin assessment & provided an opinion as to why. Did the same for why Plotinkov wouldn’t be worth drafting.
        
        A communication issue. A simple response or addition to your opinion about Fleury would have been if not traded. Again I took what you wrote to be an opinion & wasn’t aware I had to try & extrapolate your opinion & to respond with a confrontational response is your prerogative. It’s your site & I’m just a customer essentially.
        
        Like I tell many when bitching about issues with there team. If your that unhappy put your money where your mouth is & stop supporting them & giving them your money. I’m a Bruins fan & although not fully happy with the results, support most of the personal decisions, not all certainly & direction the team has chosen for the reasons the have been forced to do so.
        
        I just let my 2 Canucks seasons tickets go after more than 25 years as a seasons ticket holder. I hate Benning & his assets management decisions have been beyond brutal. I’ll spend my 8K+ elsewhere.
        
        Deleted link. That’s my retraction. My last word.
      - Dobber Sports 2016-05-24 at 09:06
        
        Thanks
        One thought on Panarin – it was 1000x easier to draft him on September 24th than it was on September 17th, for example. Just seeing, or reading about, one exhibition game, made it a much easier call for any fantasy GM paying attention. In your typical 12-team fantasy league, only three or four GMs were paying enough attention to roll the dice like that.
        
        Shipachyov falls somewhere between Panarin and Plotnikov. I don’t think he flops as badly as the latter, nor becomes a superstar like the former. But much will depend on his team and linemates – and his ice time. And the latter will be influenced by his contract. In deep leagues like mine, he’s in my Top 20 to draft right now and that’s without knowing where he’ll play. Panarin was drafted 10th last year (and probably was the fourth best pick of the draft after Connor, Jack, and Klingberg)
      - Striker 2016-05-24 at 09:37
        
        Agreed on all counts.
        
        I have Conner on all 3 of my prospects lists, add dropped him in January. The point at which I start targeting this seasons Major Jr. & College players, I also picked up Vesey, Wierenski & D. Strome swapped out at that same time. Our pools allow for 7 player prospect lists but once they play 40 NHL games they must be activated, but any prospect not taken in our reentry draft in mid September isn’t eligible to be selected again until the 1st Saturday in January via add drop based on standings.
        
        I participate in 3 fantasy leagues but manage 8 as administrator & Commish. It fits well with my day job. As I live in airports & hotels 90% of the year. These are deep expensive fantasy leagues & very competitive. 20 team leagues, 24 man rosters, 7 player prospects lists. In all but 1 we protect 12 each year. 2 C’s, 2 LW’s, 2 RW’s , 2D’s, a G & 3 wild cards. Your prospect list carry’s over unless they hit their 40 regular season games played threshold. The other is 9 keepers. 2, 2, 2, 2 & 1. We dress 3 C’s, LW’s, RW’s, 4D & a G every week. We play head to head positionally by points but you generate a game score. My centers plays your centers & if I win I get a goal. If I beat you by more than 5 fantasy points I get a bonus goal at all skater positions. Goalies the differential is 8.
        
        The 1st league was started in 1991 in Vancouver; 16 teams originally, 12 still in place; 2 died, 1 was brain damaged in a car accident & the other left us when European soccer was picked up in Canada by I believe it was Sportsnet about 15 years ago, the other 7 leagues were spin off’s from the original & now spread all over the world by GM’s but are based out of Penticton, Calgary, Toronto, Edmonton, 2 in Vancouver, San Jose & the last 1 started is based out of Houston Texas, primarily a group of clients listening to my BS for far to long. 1 entered 1 of our Vancouver pools 10 years ago & 3 years ago spun off the Dallas unit. Who would have every thought we would have 19 GM’s; I currently manage a team until an owner can be found, from essentially Texas & another league in southern California; 20 GM’s, playing in a 5K annual participation fantasy hockey league?
        
        My world is black & white. I struggle with grey although except it exists. I’m a chemical engineer. I live in absolutes.
        
        See this is a discussion. A long 1 but a far better form of communication. I’ll try to be less absolute. No promises but I’ll try. I value your opinions & should I respond it’s as I disagree strongly but it doesn’t mean I don’t respect yours.
      - Striker 2016-05-24 at 08:28
        
        You haven’t let me down in anyway. Just making a comment. You just seem to respond in a negative way. If you don’t want us to debate or comment then perhaps eliminate a comments section.
        
        I took you to believe what you stated & I took it at face value & offered a varying opinion. You responded with. Do I need to state the obvious. Duh!
        
        All good, best regards to you & yours.
      - Dobber Sports 2016-05-24 at 08:43
        
        Thank you sir. It’s the wording you use that gets me. Not “I disagree” or “I don’t think that will happen” or “I believe something else”. Instead it’s “not happening” and “no way”. You don’t leave 1% chance that you could be wrong, or that I could be right. You speak in absolutes. Sorry if I respond with daggers drawn, but that’s probably the reason.
        
        That being said, what did you think of the quote I pulled from my Fantasy Guide? To me, I thought that one was “Game, Set and Match” on the discussion. So I want my just dues! ;)
      - Striker 2016-05-24 at 09:01
        
        I have made positive responses to your writing style & opinions. Mostly when having these discussions. In the world we live in those that support or agree with our comments are generally silent. In this scenario there is no debate or discussion if we agree so why post a comment. I guess I could post a comment like I agree 100%. It’s only when we disagree, generally strongly, the absolutes you speak to, that 1 steps up & responds.
        
        Let me be clear & give you the credit you request & rightfully deserve. You are dead on the vast majority of the time, if you weren’t I wouldn’t be reading or visiting your site regularly hitting at least 3 ads per visit just to try & help. I only weigh in when I fully disagree with the comments or opinions stated & really it’s not very often. Only when I think you must have still been drunk when posting. Ha-ha! No ill will intended. Boys will be boys. Boy would I like to take back some comments & trades I made well seriously under the influence & usually at totally the wrong time well after 2AM.
      - Dobber Sports 2016-05-24 at 09:08
        
        Thanks and sorry for the misunderstanding. I need to give you the benefit of the doubt. Everyone is not out to get me ;)
        
        PS – Writing Ramblings after drinking? Me? haha – those are when I get really bold and witty, and uncensored. May not be a bad thing!
      - Striker 2016-05-24 at 09:54
        
        Sorry if I offended you. Not my intention. I’m a very strong personality. Comes from being 53, self employed since 30 & having to deal with idiots, morons & French Canadians all my life. Sorry bad joke. Ha-ha!
        
        With a PHD in chemical engineering I’m no brighter than anyone else really, just seriously schooled, not Mensa smart, my IQ is only 129, well with age restrictions & alcohol consumption about 12 today. Ha-ha! but my deductive reasoning skills are off the chart, my clients call me the General & never deviate from my recommendations, ever, as I drop them if the do, as they later try to blame me for deviating. Just always interested in the 5 W’s; who, what, where, when & why, & how. 7 years to complete my degree, get my masters & 6 to write my thesis. I was that kid every 1 found really odd growing up; not pocket protector bad but I carried a pencil case, slide ruler & what was then a very basic scientific calculator then & if not a great athlete probably would have had no friends. Ha-ha!
        
        I love fantasy hockey. My favorite hobby & the NHL is simply the means to enjoy such & the income stream it generates is extreme both in management fee’s & winnings. My wife has a sign that hangs in my office that reads. “We postpone this marriage for hockey season.” I don’t have the heart to tell her that’s 365 but being away so much she doesn’t have to see it really. She’s good at spending the cash though.
      - Dobber Sports 2016-05-24 at 10:06
        
        Now that I know you better, it will be easier to take it with a grain of salt.
        
        It sounds like I should be recruiting you to write!
      - Striker 2016-05-24 at 13:34
        
        I’ve been approached many times on numerous sites, even considered starting my own but hard to make the time. Neil & I discussed it quite often last season I just can’t make it work even though I would enjoy it. I own my own business. I employ 25 people in 7 countries & at any given time have 100+ contracted workers, geologists, drilling crews, market analyzers, support personal, etc providing services I can’t justify with full time employees. I front end the business, essential golf, eat, drink, socialize & attend a ton of meetings which are primarily a complete waste of my time but pay very well.
        
        I’ve also carved out a weird niche managing these 8 fantasy leagues which pays shocking well, which is just gravy to subsidize me for the vast hours to do so. Never mind I’m a Nazi running these leagues; the General as they call me, I have a ton of success in all pools I participate in fantasy or otherwise as those deductive reasoning skills come into play. I chew up box scores. I monitor all line combinations, TOI in all situations & although I follow a whole range of new world stats the only 1 that really serves my purpose outside of quantity & quality of ice time; old world stats, is zone starts. I have serious issues with how this other data is being accumulated, analyzed & it’s potential validity in trying to determine a players fantasy value. I started my 1st draft hockey pool in 1981 & have been running pools ever since.
        
        I here you. I post to the hockeybuzz occasionally but to many people not even addressing hockey specific issues there. Primarily Lyle Richardson’s, Spectorshockey rumour section. People there tend to be centered on debating & discussing hockey & appear fairly well informed. On many sites we see a ton of people that are either young, can’t see the big picture, are homers or simply troll. This isn’t the old NHL where teams can just throw money at a problem if inclined or able; had the money, & do what ever they wished. So many other factors in play now with the cap, the current waiver rules, RFA status coming at such a young age, etc & now with expansion looming. All these issues factor into play when trying to address player personal decisions in today’s NHL.
        
        Again sorry for coming on so strong.