Bolts/Pens, Bernier, Mason, Klingberg, Eichel, Team Canada, and more

****

Pittsburgh advanced to the Stanley Cup Final with a 2-1 Game 7 win over Tampa Bay. I wouldn't go so far to say "one of the best ever" but this game was absolutely enthralling from start to finish. When hockey fans think of "Game 7 Intensity" this is a game to think of

The big news before this Game 7 was that Steven Stamkos would return to action after having not played since the end of March. While there would assuredly be a some rust to shake and “game shape” to get into, this was an automatic move to put him back in once he was cleared by the doctors. He slotted in as the centre on the second line.

The first period was scoreless, and there were only 13 combined shots, but those numbers weren’t indicative of the play. It was an incredibly fast-paced period, with both teams busting hard on offence and defence. Just because there weren’t an abundance of chances for either side doesn’t mean these teams were playing tentatively. Quite the opposite, actually.

The scorelessness did not last long into the second period, as the Penguins took advantage of a Tampa line change, and Bryan Rust fired a beautiful shot over Andrei Vasilevskiy’s glove on a clean shot from the high slot. It really was a heck of a shot:

Rust goal pic.twitter.com/esamkqNfj2

— Stephanie (@myregularface) May 27, 2016

Jonathan Drouin would tie the game before the 10-minute mark of the second on a gorgeous shot of his own. I hesitate to include too many GIFs, but the shift to the middle and subsequent shot displayed a good deal of his skill set:

Drouin goal pic.twitter.com/sYXUk2T1yC

— Stephanie (@myregularface) May 27, 2016

Rust gave the Pens their lead back under a minute later on a jam play at the side of the net that squeaked through Vasilevskiy. To that point, Rust’s performance was eerily reminiscent of Max Talbot in 2009, albeit a round early.

Until the final commercial break of the second, despite the 2-1 score, Pittsburgh was thoroughly dominating Tampa Bay. Thoroughly:

Uh Tampa? pic.twitter.com/pHFsY9Oid0

— James Mirtle (@mirtle) May 27, 2016

The score would remain 2-1 for the Penguins after two periods, despite Pittsburgh having a 29-10 shot advantage. Were it not for the squeaker by Rust, it would have been a tie game. Such is hockey.

Pittsburgh hung on to their 2-1 lead in the third to stamp their ticket to the Cup Final. Again, I cannot reiterate enough how incredible this game was to watch. The speed, the intensity, the playmaking, the saves, all of it. 

One final word: My hat is off to the Tampa players. I will admit my preseason Cup bets were on Dallas and Pittsburgh, so I had a vested interest here. All the same, given the injuries to Stralman and Stamkos, Tampa more than exceeded the expectations I had for them. It's easy for me to say, but there shouldn't be any head-hanging on their part for the playoff performance. 

Pittsburgh and San Jose kick off the Final on Monday in Pennsylvania. 

****

Mason

One goalie situation I’m keeping an eye on for next year is in Philadelphia. Steve Mason may very well be a very good goalie, as noted in yesterday's Ramblings on adjusted goals. He does sport a .922 save percentage in 173 regular season games for the Flyers, so this isn’t just a fantasy.

Through the first 16 games of last season, the Flyers allowed 33 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five, or 29^th in the NHL with only Ottawa worse. I used the first 16 games because that was before Shayne Gostisbehere was called up. From that point through the rest of the season, they were 18^th at 29.5 shots per 60 minutes.

Obviously that’s not all an impact by Gostisbehere, whose possession numbers weren’t overly impressive anyway. But the Flyers improving defensively is crucial because fewer shots, as long as Mason is solid, means a lower goals against average. It also, theoretically, should mean more wins.

Mason was injured at times last year, and the overall numbers weren’t eye-popping. With an improved defence – hopefully those prospects can help in some way – and a healthy season, Mason could be a steal in drafts next year. For those that wait on drafting goaltending, put a star beside his name.

Bernier

It’s no secret that John Bernier was pretty bad last year. His .908 overall save percentage was the worst of his Leafs tenure, and the worst since his debut season when he played just four games. He was near the bottom in adjusted five-on-five save percentage, and even found his way to the AHL early in the year.

One big point here is that the Leafs were trying to be bad. Despite that approach from management, their underlying possession numbers improved dramatically compared to the Carlyle era, and the defensive aspect was is of importance here; Toronto finished 17^th in high-danger chances against per minute at five-on-five last year, while on aggregate, they were last in the NHL over the previous two seasons.

The Leafs should be better this year than they were last year, presumably now that they’re trying to win (from an organizational standpoint). The assumption here, thus, is that with the kids having gained some experience, and an improved roster overall, that the team will be even more stout defensively. That should help the save percentage of their goaltenders, and hopefully keep the goals against averages down in the process.

Bernier, from his debut through the end of the 2014-2015 season, was a .924 goalie by adjusted save percentage at five-on-five. That number put him in the same range as guys like Marc-André Fleury and Devan Dubnyk. While Bernier probably won’t ever be a true top-tier goalie, it’s reasonable to think he’s better than he was last year.

I will be buying in fantasy for the 2016-2017 season. My guess is that he will be drafted outside the top-20 goalies, meaning there may be an opportunity to have him as a third goalie on fantasy teams in 12-team leagues. This is, of course, all assuming there won’t be another true number-1 brought in, and there really isn’t much on the free agent market as it is. Being an average goalie on a solid defensive team pays dividends in fantasy. At a low draft cost, Bernier is worth the risk.

****

John Klingberg

Klingberg had 10 goals and 58 points last year, and it somehow still feels like a letdown, doesn’t it? Funny how that works sometimes.

I think part of that feeling is that he had such a hot start and slowed down as the year wore on. Klingberg had 27 points in 24 games on December 1^st, and 31 points in 52 games from that point on. That second set of numbers are far from poor, but anyone in head-to-head leagues was probably a little underwhelmed given how Klingberg's season started.

There may be room for improvement in one area though: Klingberg managed a point on less than 40-percent of the five-on-five goals that Dallas scored with him on the ice. The elite puck-moving, offensive defencemen like Karlsson, Burns, Letang, Hedman, and Giordano were all above 45-percent. Assuming the Stars score at about the same rate as last year, and Klingberg plays a full season, a progression in this department can add 4-5 points next year to his total.

Next year, Klingberg will be in his third season, on a team still loaded with offensive talent, and should see at least a modest increase in minutes. There is room for improvement in both his five-on-five totals and his power play point totals (22 of those last year). Don’t be surprised if he gets to 65 points in a full year. If he can keep those shot rates increasing, he could border as a top-5 roto defenceman.

****

The final rosters for the World Cup of Hockey are set to be announced today (Friday the 27^th), and while there isn’t much fantasy relevance here, it is a pretty big announcement for hockey in general. Regardless of the format, this will still be a tournament of all-stars. There are a couple of situations I’m intrigued by personally.

Brent Burns

Obviously, Burns has ripped through the NHL production-wise over the last two seasons from the blue line. He hasn’t slowed down in the playoffs, either, with 20 points in 18 games.

What makes this interesting is in previous tournaments, we’ve heard from Team Canada brass about how important chemistry is, and that plays a factor in team selection (ahem, Chris Kunitz in Sochi). While Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic haven’t necessarily been joined at the hip with San Jose, they do have over 500 minutes on the ice together at five-on-five over the last two seasons, and presumably know each other's on-ice tendencies otherwise.

There will be tough decisions on Canada’s blue line, and extremely talented players will be left off; in my mind, one of Subban, Letang, or Burns isn’t on this team (though they all should be). Playing the offensively-gifted Burns with the defensively-stout Vlasic seems like a good route to go, but I’m not selecting the team.

Brad Marchand

Coming off a career year, Brad Marchand is a player that has been joined at the hip with a teammate, and that is the already-selected Patrice Bergeron.

Over the last four years, Marchand and Bergeron are nearly a 60-percent CorsiFor tandem, which is pretty near unheard of, given that the sample is over 3000 minutes. That number is Kopitar-With-Williams-level stuff. They can score, they can defend, they can do everything together that a team might need in a short tournament. Give them a talented right winger, and watch them fly.

The team will be stocked from top to bottom, and a lot of hard decisions will have to be made. Given the propensity for picking chemistry, though, and how good Burns and Marchand have been, it’ll be tough to leave either of them off the roster. I will say, of the two, Burns probably is a lot more likely than Marchand. We shall see. 

****

I just want to lob this into the internet: if you have the number-1 pick in your keeper league draft next year – assuming it’s deep enough that guys like MacKinnon aren’t being thrown back into the pool – what trade would you consider for the top pick next year? Whether the intention is to draft Auston Matthews or Patrik Laine, how much would have to come back the other way for the pick?

I was thinking of this because last year in a keeper roto league, I had the fourth overall pick, and offered that pick plus P.K. Subban for the first overall pick (McDavid) and was refused. I was not willing to part with more than that. What would it take to pry the pick from you this year?

****

Speaking of elite draft picks, one name that I don’t see a lot is Jack Eichel. Obviously, at this moment, future prospects are the topics of discussion, and McDavid is always lingering in the background. Maybe it’s my own isolationism, but it seems Eichel is kind of getting lost in the shuffle.

With 24 goals and 56 points, it was a pretty good rookie year for Eichel. For the sharp fantasy owner, it’s probably a good thing there is so much press around names like Connor McDavid, Shayne Gostisbehere, Artemi Panarin, and now Laine/Matthews. That’s what I mean when I say that Eichel is kind of getting lost in the shuffle.

Back to Eichel's production, the list of teenagers with a season of 24 goals and 56 points since the 2005 lockout is as follows (from Hockey Reference):

Assuming Jeff Skinner is Eichel’s worst-case scenario, this is a pretty prestigious list. Note that Eichel averaged nearly three shots per game as well, which is another really good indicator. He also finished with the third-most high-danger scoring chances of any forward that were age 20 or younger. More than guys like Nathan MacKinnon and Dylan Larkin.

If Eichel’s ADP can fall to the fifth round in draft season, that may be worth taking a bite. Guys with ADP’s between 49-60 last year were Nick Foligno, Marian Hossa, and T.J. Oshie. For next season, I would take Eichel over any of those names. Hopefully the lack of media coverage, or should I say, the dispersal of media coverage across all the other young stars, doesn’t boost his ADP, and makes Eichel a good value next year.

*stats from Hockey Reference, Hockey Analysis, and War On Ice. Cap information from Cap Friendly.