Age-20 breakout candidates, Red Wings offseason news, Phil Kessel talk and Steven Stamkos' ideal move …

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Here are is a stat pack from last year sorted by individual high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes of the 19 year olds with fantasy relevance from last season.

Of the group, it is likely Nikolaj Ehlers and Robby Fabbri carry as much perceived fantasy value as anyone, outside of Leon Draisaitl, maybe.

Ehlers started and ended the season scorching hot, and Fabbri had an exceptional playoff run.

Dylan Larkin is currently ranked 134th at ESPN and 140th at NHL.com, which both seem reasonable. However, I suspect his stock will rise, and the sophomore won't be available in drafts at that position when we're drafting this fall.

Larkin's World Cup of Hockey appearance will likely boost his perceived value higher, too.

     – – – Related: See analysis that compares Dylan Larkin vs. Robby Fabbri here – – – 

It was interesting to see him rank below a number of others in HSCF60 after what was a highly successful first season, but it also reaffirmed the rookie wall he hit. Larkin scored just seven points through his final 28 games of the regular season and returned a minus-15 rating, remember.

It is likely best to assume Larkin is neither as good as he was to start nor as bad as he was to finish his rookie campaign, but it is unlikely he's not drafted well ahead of Sam Reinhart and Sam Bennett.

But, how much better is Larkin than Reinhart and Bennett? As a fantasy asset entering his second year in the league, should Larkin be ranked two rounds — or more — ahead of them?

Reinhart (26 points through final 38 games) and Bennett (22 points through final 38 games) actually improved as the season went along, and they're no less set for key offensive minutes heading into this season as Larkin is.

It's something to keep in mind as more rankings are released and we have a better feel for where players are going to be and should be ranked and drafted.

David Pastrnak is another interesting case.

Entering his third season, a step forward offensively seems probable, but Pastrnak's most frequent linemates at five-on-five last season were David Krejci and Loui Eriksson. The trio ranked 33rd in the league in goals per 60 minutes among lines with at least 280 minutes of five-on-five ice time.

The company above and below their 2.33 GF60 at five-on-five is somewhere between underwhelming and awful.

Add in the lengthy point droughts Pastrnak hasn't been able to curb early in his career, and despite excellent skills, it is unlikely a significant step forward is in store.

The peaks and valleys will likely stabilize going forward, but in any weekly formats, you cannot count on an offensive player who posts a single goal through 17 games during two separate point droughts. This is especially true when Pastrnak was nowhere close to two shots per game.

Draisaitl is actually ranked lower than Larkin at both ESPN AND NHL.com, but I don't suspect that'll be the case in most upcoming drafts, at least it shouldn't be.

Edmonton is going to reshuffle, and the Oilers are going to be a more competitive team next season.

Expect Draisaitl to return similar numbers to his 2015-16 showing, at worst, which means you're looking at a 55- to 60-point return without any significant offensive growth. His strong chemistry with Taylor Hall helps (2.8 GF/60 and 51.6 CF% at five-on-five), too.

Larkin will not be skating with anyone as offensively gifted as Hall, and Larkin also doesn't have the benefit of having Connor McDavid the focus of opposing teams.

Too much will unfold over the next few months to know what to expect from William Nylander. He should post 50-plus points, and be a solid fantasy option, but there might still be room for more, depending on what happens with Toronto.

We know Nylander is ready to produce at the NHL level, and we know Toronto is going to have a better offensive team next season. We don't know how many other incoming talents will be there to make it a huge jump or just a modest jump.

Regardless, Nylander slots in somewhere among the top options from the group depending on positional eligibility and what the Toronto lineup looks like after the summer.

Including Nick Ritchie, Jake Virtanen and Jared McCann was more for perspective, as they're all late-round options in deep leagues. And with Aaron Ekblad essentially established, he isn't worth looking at in depth, either.

Reinhart and Bennett are the players who are most attractive to me after this short stat grab. They were highly regarded coming out of junior and produced well in their first seasons, especially in HSCF60.

Reinhart's 13.57 mark was tied with Max Pacioretty and 86th in the league among skaters with at least 500 minutes of ice time, whereas Bennett's 12.85 HSCF60 was higher than Matt Duchene (12.62) and Jack Eichel (12.61).

It's a single statistic, so it isn't to suggest Reinhart or Bennett should be valued more than Pacioretty, Duchene or Eichel. It does show Reinhart and Bennett were successful offensive players, though, and given their pedigrees and solid rookie seasons, they should return a nice profit with a selection in the late middle rounds of drafts.

This is solid cast of players with oodles of potential, and the thought process is landing an Aleksander Borkov-type breakout from one of these guys in the later stages of drafts. For my money, targeting Reinhart or Bennett has the floor-ceiling combo at a better cost than Draisaitl, Larkin and Nylander.

What do you think?

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Rick Roos pitted Larkin and Fabbri in a main-event calibre cage match yesterday.

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Following up Dobber's Alexander Radulov talk yesterday, the Red Wings are believed to have offered him a one-year deal worth between 4 and five million.

More of interest from the article, Detroit is planning to re-sign Darren Helm and Drew Miller. The issue here is that Helm and Miller are going to be asking for deals above entry-level pay, and in the case of Helm, he's likely after numbers similar to Casey Cizikas.

One of the biggest misuses of cap space is paying depth players more than entry-level price. The Pittsburgh Penguins are proving that this year — no?

Re-upping with Helm and Miller also limits the fantasy upside of Tomas Jurco, Teemu Pulkkinen, Anthony Mantha and others.

Kyle Quincy and Brad Richards will not be offered contracts before July 1. It means Brendan Smith and Xavier Ouellet should see a full season of work in the league, barring Detroit looking outside the organization for blue line help.

Richards is short of fantasy value, but he is still an excellent real-world pivot who drove possession and offense for Detroit this season (54.0 CorsiFor percentage and 53.5 goals for percentage at five-on-five), and as long as his asking price is reasonable, he could have a Matt Cullen-like impact for a contender next year.

It wouldn't be shocking to see Detroit miss the playoffs next year.

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The Halifax Mooseheads made a splash last weekend at the 2016 QMJHL Entry Draft.

Remember, the Moose made a major splash back in 2011 when they selected Jonathan Drouin second overall in the draft, and then Halifax acquired Nathan MacKinnon in a blockbuster deal.

Maybe we'll have some drama with the NHL Entry Draft this year.

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I want Phil Kessel to win the Conn Smythe, too. We're less than a year removed from Steve Simmons' hot dog story, after all.

Does Kessel deserve the award?

Sure, or at least, he is no less deserving than anyone else on the Penguins. A case could be made for Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby and Matt Murray, but Kessel has been the man who has provided timely offense time and time again.

Obviously, the series isn't over and Pittsburgh might not actually win. But still, Kessel should win the Conn Smythe.

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Had a discussion this week about Steven Stamkos looking for a $10 to $12 million, short-term deal (two years), and then hope the salary cap jumps, so he can have a bigger market to sign a longer-term deal at a similar price point.

It is understandable that players want to ink long-term deals and punch their Set for Life ticket, but this might be one of the worst seasons to be an unrestricted free agent.

An expansion draft looms, and the salary cap could decrease. Additionally, the market is flooded, goaltenders aside.

Or, what about a one-year deal to stay in Tampa Bay?

After Tampa Bay played so well without Stamkos, it seems unlikely they match his lofty demands on a long-term contract.

A short-term deal with the Lightning will give the team another shot at the Stanley Cup next season, and it also allows Tampa Bay — and Stamkos — an opportunity to re-evaluate in the future.

If Stamkos is chasing a Stanley Cup, his best bet is returning to Tampa Bay. It might not be the best scenario for Stamkos' fantasy value, though. He won't ever supplant Tyler Johnson as Jon Copper's go-to center, and Johnson will likely continue to play with the superior wingers.

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Carry over from Dobber's Ramblings Wednesday:

Get the Fantasy Prospects Report here – it’s out now and you can download it one second after you buy it. Don’t fall behind! I’m targeting June 12th for the release of the update on the FPR (may be earlier if the Pens close it out in five). Included in the update: Some error fixes/missing hyperlinks/Addition of Rankings to the draftee player profiles/Mock Draft/and 10 new profiles – including one for Jake DeBrusk, who is easily the most popular player that was missed in the first release.

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Keep tabs on all the latest trade rumors and offseason happenings in the rumors section of the forum.

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Enjoy Game 5, Dobberheads.