Ramblings: Petr Mrazek, Mike Hoffman, Trades and more (June 21)

Neil Parker

2016-06-21

USA TODAY Sports Images - Petr Mrazek

 

Petr Mrazek dubbed the No. 1 (again?), Mike Hoffman contract squabbles, a trio of trades and more …

 

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Buckle up. There was a lot of news Monday.

 

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This is a solid article from James Mirtle that sets the stage for the upcoming week.

And some of the dominos have already dropped.

 

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General manager Ken Holland confirmed what every one knows by dubbing Petr Mrazek as the No. 1 goaltender entering training camp.

Jimmy Howard is a prime trade candidate, but he has a hefty cap hit the next three seasons ($5,291,666). Age, injuries and underwhelming play are also negatives. It's amazing Howard started the first two games of the playoffs.

Mrazek's run from early November through February was incredible:


 

However, he struggled down the stretch with a .886 save percentage and a 3.44 goals-against average through is final 16 appearances, which was the likely reason Howard grabbed the starts in Game 1 and 2 against Tampa Bay.

Mrazek's midseason run included historic numbers at five-on-five, and while there's no questioning his talent, Mrazek likely isn't ascending to the top of his position anytime soon.

Mrazek did nurse a groin injury in late February and March, so it might have impacted his play.

For our fantasy purposes, it's safe to rely on Mrazek as a low-end No. 1 for your virtual club, but he would look a lot better as your No. 2. Based on early rankings from ESPN and NHL.com, Mrazek is in No. 2 territory.

Detroit is expected to be aggressive over the next few weeks, and should continue to be a competitive club again. Mrazek should approach 35 wins with a .920 Sv% and a 2.40 GAA.

I suspect he'll be undervalued next fall, and is currently undervalued in keeper/dynasty setups. The Red Wings have some obstacle in their way right now, but shipping out Howard and Pavel Datsyuk's contract should help them be major players in a stocked free-agent market.

And quickly, sure Holland said it was going to be difficult to move Datsyuk's contract, but what do you expect him to say? He's jockeying.

 

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Sticking with the Red Wings briefly, Holland also said Anthony Mantha will receive every opportunity to crack the roster in training camp.

If he sticks in a scoring-line role, Mantha will return 20-25 goals and 40-50 points. Detroit has a hole in their lineup for a sized-skilled winger, and Mantha fits the need.

 

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Jonathan Marchessault's agent said Tampa Bay has shown interest in re-signing Marchessault, and that Marchessult wants to return.

There isn't a lot of fantasy value in a return to Tampa Bay, and there likely isn't a lot of fantasy value attached to a relocation.

Still, he posted a point-per-game run over eight games in December with an uptick in ice time, especially of the power-play variety. Similarly in late February, Marchessault scored four points through three games with extended minutes.

He's likely good enough for a top-six role on a weak team, but at 25, fleeting opportunities in scoring roles are likely all he'll receive.

 

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San Jose acquired 20-year-old center Maxim Letunov from Phoenix.

“Max Letunov is a player that our amateur guys identified in his draft year,” general manager Doug Wilson said. “He was one of the top offensive guys as a freshman at UConn. … We think he’s a great fit. We’re going to get him bigger and stronger as he progresses through his college career, but he’s just really a player that we’ve identified that fit our needs going forward.”

And, here is the latest take from the DobberProspects:

Arizona traded Maxim Letunov's rights and a 2017 sixth-round pick to the San Jose Sharks in exchange for a 2017 third-round pick and a 2016 fourth-round draft pick. This seems like a odd trade since Letunov was looking like an excellent prospect after a strong freshman season at UCONN, setting the school's rookie scoring record for points, assists and goals. New Coyotes General Manager John Chayka had this to say on the trade: "Signing an NCAA player with lots of development still left is always a concern. That becomes compounded when you have depth at center like we do with our prospects. It's a good fit for San Jose." 

Full profile here.

This is a wait-and-see situation, as Letunov needs to fill out his 6-foot-4 frame, which likely means it'll be a few years before he's fantasy relevant outside of cavernous keeper/dynasty setups.

 

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Ottawa Senators general manager Pierre Dorion said there was a "cone of silence" on contract talks with Mike Hoffman.

That's not good, and this is my go to point when it comes to Hoffman. Cliffy, don't bogart that tweet, my friend.

The Senators are stuck in a semi-rebuild as a middling team, Hoffman is a piece to build around, not toy around.

Here's his start to last season:

 

 

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There are only a handful of players who can post those numbers. It wouldn't be surprising to see him in a new uniform if this isn't tidied up soon.

 

Cody Ceci is nearing a deal. He's a fine depth defenseman with some upside down the road, but being behind Erik Karlsson, Dion Phaneuf and potentially an incoming rearguard hinders his upside. Those in leagues using real-time stats would love to see him throw a few more body checks to hit the triple-digit mark in shots, hits and blocked shots.

He'll also need more power-play time after averaging just 32 seconds per game last year.

 

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Here is a level-headed approach to signing aging players from St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong:

“I think what you find now, the players that signed in their mid-to-late 20s, that was the premium contract,” Armstrong said. “Now there’s a group of players that want that second premium contract. That’s difficult to branch out and think where guys are going to be at (age) 34-35-36.

“I’m not worried about 2016-17, or ’17-18. But when you start projecting out long-term, players, wear and tear on their body, their production decreases and you need to have a contract that can stand the test of time.”

The just of the article is Jaden Schwartz is going to get paid, and if it means David Backes and Troy Brouwer hit the open market, that's the sacrifice.

Just for comparison:

 

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Lists are fun this time of year, and here are the five dos and don'ts for the Vancouver Canucks, in the opinion of The Province's Ben Kuzma.

The No. 2 don't:

I don't completely disagree with his point, it's a grind and players wear down playing physical hockey over the course of the season.

But, citing Jared McCann is shortsighted. Rushing and leaning on a slender 19-year-old pivot was the problem. Or perhaps, it's was not having a better option that was the problem.

Plus, it isn't like Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin are pillars of strength. They've fared alright in the daunting Pacific Division over the years.

 

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Jakob Chychrun's stock has plummeted somewhat after an underwhelming showing with the Sarnia Sting this year. He's still a lock to go in the first round and has star potential, though.

Here's a solid read on Chychrun, and I'd suspect he is selected 10th overall Friday, give or take a few picks.

 

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There were a few other deals Monday.

Dobber hit up Andersen here, Yandle here, and Vesey here.

 

Frederik Andersen was my top breakout goalie last fall at USA TODAY, and while there are some injury concerns, this was the best goaltender on the market and he's proven to be an elite fantasy option when in the crease. Splitting time has been the only downfall.

There could be some ups and downs over the immediate two seasons, but for the back half of his five-year contract, Andersen could be a league-winning netminder, assuming he's healthy.

Dobber does a great job of accounting for injuries. Sometimes there are patterns that develop, but sometimes things just happen. For the most part, we have to bake in a few games lost each season, but at some point an injury prone player is going to have a healthy season.

If Darren McFadden can do it, anyone can.

Personally, I'm not concerned with Andersen's spotty history with minor ailments.

 

The Keith Yandle deal tells me Florida isn't going to be re-signing Brian Campbell, and they see a window with Roberto Luongo that is closer to closed than open.

There isn't much to add to what Dobber laid out. I was overly impressed with Michael Matheson, but I don't see him as ready to make the jump as a rookie and excel through an 82-game season. The Colton Parayko comparison works, but Parayko's best offensive stretches basically aligned with when one of Kevin Shattenkirk or Alex Pietrangelo were out of the lineup, remember.

With Campbell gone, and Dmitry Kulikov involved in trade rumors, this is an excellent fit for Yandle and Florida.

 

Vesey isn't signing with Buffalo.

Peter Donatelli, who represents Jimmy Vesey, had this to say about the Buffalo Sabres acquiring the rights of his client from the Nashville Predators: "In our opinion, the only thing that has happened is now the Sabres have stepped into the shoes of Nashville for exclusive rights [to negotiate] until Aug. 15. However, at this time, it doesn't change Jimmy Vesey's intention to become a free agent on Aug. 15."

Maybe he considers Toronto, but it seems most likely he rides shotgun with David Krejci or Patrice Bergeron next year in Boston. A 20-20 rookie campaign is very much within reach in that setting.

 

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And, here is a final list.

The Tragically Hip albums ranked.

Enjoy the day, Dobberheads.

 

 

15 Comments

  1. Steve 2016-06-21 at 06:33

    Do you realize by cone of silence they meant they are not talking to the media about the contract talks? That is a good thing. That does not mean they have been silent with Hoffmans camp.

    • Neil Parker 2016-06-21 at 08:44

      Hoffman situation can’t be spun positively.

      • Steve 2016-06-21 at 08:58

        That’s ridiculous. Yes it can. Maybe if you read the full quote rather than relying on clickbait journalism of 2016:

        “On Mike Hoffman, we have a cone of silence. I don’t think that using the media on either side is a beneficiary to getting something done. I’ve got to say that the people at Octagon (Mike’s agents) have been tremendous, nothing’s gotten out, nothing’s gotten out on their side, and we’re really trying hard to get something done”.

        I also find it odd how you only look at his stats through December 29. How is that useful? Hoffman is a nice piece but not a franchise player. If he can’t agree to something reasonable then I would absolutely trade him for a decent haul. He has no leverage on his part.

        • Dobber 2016-06-21 at 09:17

          Drilling into a player’s stats in half-season chunks is a great way to find hidden potential, or disturbing trends. That’s how it’s useful. My .02.
          You are correct, he is certainly not a franchise player, more of a potential complimentary star

          • Neil Parker 2016-06-21 at 09:38

            That smaller sample size shows his upside/ceiling, which is high. In Hoffman’s case, it shows he is a capable scorer, and that span aligns pretty well with when Kyle Turris started to become ineffective because of the ankle injury.

            I completely agree that random spans aren’t overly telling if there isn’t context.

            Hoffman is capable of being an offensive catalyst for a first or second line, but when there wasn’t the same offensive balance, it clearly hurt his production. It hurt everyone else on Ottawa, with the exception of Mark Stone and Erik Karlsson. A case could be made Mika Zibanejad was better down the stretch, too.

        • Neil Parker 2016-06-21 at 09:30

          I never said he was a franchise player. And, if Ottawa valued him properly, they’d be taking the approach Doug Armstrong is with Jaden Schwartz.

          The organization hasn’t handled Hoffman well on and off the ice. You can disagree, that’s cool. I’ll say this again and again, fantasy sports wouldn’t be a very fun, if everyone agreed.

          I read the tweet, and it sounded more of the same from Ottawa brass toward Hoffman. There was nothing to click because it was immediately available via Twitter, so that little dig is irrelevant. And if I had the time to double-check everything on Twitter, I’d be spending it doing something other than double-checking everything on Twitter.

          Maybe Hoffman’s better off with another organization for poolies. I don’t have a strong opinion. Hoffman is a talented scorer and viable fantasy option in all formats. So, on a fantasy hockey site, I added my take. That’s why I’m here.

  2. ChrisP 2016-06-21 at 07:59

    I wonder if Letunov’s camp had already mentioned something to the Coyotes about not wanting to sign with them or at least possibly hinting it and that’s why they dealt his rights?

    • Neil Parker 2016-06-21 at 08:44

      They didn’t view him as a fit any longer, I read somewhere.

    • number54 2016-06-21 at 16:11

      As the ramblings pointed out, and I agree, I think the problem is that the Yotes have too much depth at center in their system with Domi, Strome and Samuelsson all a stone’s throw from the NHL.

      I don’t think they got good value in this deal (they drafted him with a 2nd, developed him, then traded him for a 3rd), but that doesn’t change their rationale in wanting to move him.

  3. Chunky's Choice 2016-06-21 at 09:36

    Phantom Power is the best tragically hip album. Best lyrics, tightest songs, no bar-band blues-rock. It’s one awesome gem after another.

    • Dobber 2016-06-21 at 09:52

      ?? I think Phantom Power was the start of their decline. Up to Here to this day is my favorite album, period. And Road Apples sits firmly in my Top 5. Fully Completely and Day For Night would also crack my Top 20. You make me want to give Phantom Power another listen, with a different attitude…

      • Neil Parker 2016-06-21 at 09:56

        In Violet Light is the Mike Hoffman of Hip albums.

        • Stu Campaigne 2016-06-21 at 10:57

          I see what you did there. It’s a good life, if you don’t weaken.

      • Chunky's Choice 2016-06-22 at 01:40

        You and I have different tastes in tragically hip my friend. Up to here and road apples would be pretty low on my list. Fully completely is when they just started to get interesting. I do agree with you about Day For Night though, i think that’s my #2 favourite. Trouble at the Henhouse continued its moody/creepy vibe, but Phantom Power was the peak, no more masturbatory guitar filler, just brilliant pop songs that REM could only dream about writing. Music at Work recreated that sound but it’s like they forgot about actually writing songs, I’d say that’s where the decline began. In violet light seemed to return to the moody vibe and then i lost interest after that. Still listen to phantom power all the time though. Do give it another chance, maybe with more of an REM / early-Beatles / Buddy Holly attitude and less of a springsteen / tom petty / doobie brothers attitude??

    • Ian Gooding 2016-06-21 at 14:06

      I’m with the CBC blogger on this one. Fully Completely is the Hip’s best album.

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