Lots of NHL Draft talk, Mikkel Boedker, PP Breakout Candidates, Reto Berra and more …

 

Reto Berra stands as a sneaky good value to round out your goaltenders next fall. Florida is an emerging team, and No. 1 goalie Roberto Luongo is 37.

The Panthers have 15 back-to-back games next season, and Luongo has started 61 and 60 games the past two seasons. That leaves approximately 20 starts for Berra, and most likely, 15 of those starts will come against the weaker opponent in a back-to-back setting.

That's probably a worse-case scenario, too.

Berra ranks fifth among all goaltenders with at least 1000 minutes in five-on-five save percentage over the past two seasons, according to Puckalytics.com. Former-backup Al Montoya checked out 57th out of 67 eligible goalies.

Obviously, no one should confuse Berra with a middle-round pick, but 12 wins with excellent ratios are nothing to shake a stick at. He'll also be an intriguing option in daily contests.

 

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Listening to Episode 95 of The Hockey PDOcast with guest Jonathan Willis, I was tipped off about Mikkel Boedker's underwhelming even-strength production. Willis had him pegged as a free-agent bust unlikely to live up to the contract he'll sign this summer.

19 of Boedker's 51 points this season were of the power-play variety, and entering his age-27 season, the prime offensive years are likely in the rear-view mirror.

 

Folks, this is a player who checks out better as a third-line winger than a top-six scorer. Be wary of overexcitement and don't be surprised if he doesn't land with an analytics-savvy team this summer.

 

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The notion of Boedker's production being inflated by his power-play numbers made me wonder who could really benefit from an uptick in PP points.

First, here is where Boedker fits in points subtracted by PP points. It isn't exactly a who's who of fantasy musts. Games played considerations in mind, of course.

 

Here is a list of players of interest who had at least 40 points last year with fewer than 10 PP points.

 

J.T. Miller

There have been a lot of trade rumblings involving the Rangers, and Miller's ascension last season could make it easier to part with a more established forward. He averaged just 1:33 of PP time per game last year but flashed huge upside with a strong midseason run.

 

He ranked 45th in points per 60 minutes at five-on-five and 30th in goals per 60 minutes last season. His first 50-point campaign is just some added power-play time away.

 

Dylan Larkin

Not to dive too deep into Larkin again, but his lack of production with the man advantage is somewhat puzzling. Larkin averaged 2:14 per night on the power play, so he wasn't a complete afterthought up a man.

With Pavel Datsyuk out of the picture and a potential passing of the guard, Larkin should build on his rookie season in terms of power-play production. The issue is he might have to in order to cover a potential drop in even-strength results.

 

Nino Niederreiter

Here was Niederreiter's finish after Mike Yeo was fired February 13, playoffs included.

 

His power-play time didn't fluctuate significantly, as he averaged 2:00 minutes for the season. There will be a third bench boss in charge this fall, though, so it'll be interesting to see where Niederreiter fits into Bruce Boudreau's plans.

Entering his age-24 season, Niederreiter is a solid bet to produce a career year and flirt with 50 points. Any shot at a true breakout will require a huge increase in his PP numbers, though.

 

Brock Nelson

Even with 10 fewer power-play points last season than in 2014-15, Nelson only dropped from 42 to 40 points in 2015-16. Kyle Okposo and Frans Nielson could both be gone, and Nelson should have a chance to earn more power-play time next year after he averaged 38 fewer seconds in PP time from 14-15 to 15-16.

At just 24, Nelson still has room for another point jump and 50 points are likely with a return to his previous results on the power play.

 

Charlie Coyle

Thomas Vanek's absence should secure more power-play time for Coyle. And Coyle should see more offensive minutes than previously mentioned Nino Niederreiter, although, that isn't a lock.

The fact Coyle has improved in each of his first three seasons and is now completely in his prime improves the likelihood of another step forward offensively. Six power-play points aren't enough for a true breakout showing, though.

 

Jeff Skinner

Since entering the league, Skinner's 1.02 goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five is ranked 15th best among skaters with at least 4000 minutes. For comparison, Patrick Kane and Joe Pavelski trail him.

Skinner scored 60 power-play points through his first four seasons over 259 games (0.23 PP points per game), but he's returned just 14 PP points through 159 games over the past two seasons (0.09).

With three 25-goal seasons on his resume through six seasons before the age of 24, Skinner has proven to be a high-end scorer. And now, he's just entering his prime. His surroundings are slowing becoming more talented, too.

Still, you cannot draft his with confidence until the late middle rounds.

 

Tomas Hertl

Patrick Marleau stands in Hertl's way right now. And it's a big if, BUT, if Hertl leapfrogs Marleau and joins the No. 1 power-play unit … look out.

25 of Marleau's 48 points were of the power-play variety last year. Let that sink in.

Again, it's a big if, but a speculative reach on the if could pay off huge.

 

Ondrej Palat

Chalk Palat's down year up to his health, and the health of his teammates.

His career numbers aren't that out of whack considering he had played just 22 games before January 9, and returned only two goals and six assists to that point.

Palat stands to be one of the biggest bargains in fantasy and likely one of the safest bounce-back candidates going. Expect him to be available well into the middle rounds.

 

Brandon Saad

Head coach John Tortorella cannot be trusted for our fantasy purposes, and this is perhaps the most telling case:

Saad played his fewest power-play minutes per game in 2015-16.

With top-unit minutes and opportunities, you can add 10 points onto Saad's totals, and he likely finishes 2015-16 with 35 goals. Only eight players scored 35 goals last year.

Tortorella is a fantasy killer, and you should handicap his impact when approaching Blue Jackets.

 

Chris Kreider

Development/progress isn't always linear, but fantasy owners had to be disappointed with Kreider's 2015-16 showing, as it was essentially a repeat for 2014-15.

In power-play terms, it was identical with eight PP points.

Still, Kreider shows better than he returns, and that makes for tough fantasy analysis because his size-speed-skill combo has star potential. He's a millionaire's Valeri Nichushkin.

Either the previously mentioned J.T. Miller or Kreider are going to emerge as bigger producers next season, likely. But the idea that Kreider has a major breakout ahead seems far fetched now.

25 goals and 50 points are obtainable and anything beyond should be viewed as a bonus. Still, at least when you're drafting him, you know you're grabbing a-heck-of'a talent.

 

Jonathan Toews

It was surprising to see Toews show up on the results, but it also highlights a trend in his career. He hasn't hit 20 power-play points since 2010-11. The easy suggestion is he'll bounce back with five or six more PP tallies next year to push him closer to a respectable 65 points for the season.

However, the emergence of Artemi Panarin was as noticeable on the power play as it was at even strength. The rookie posted 24 PP points, which certainly cut into Toews' total.

Toews' decline is correlated more with the linemates he carries, which is primarily a 37-year-old Marian Hossa. It shouldn't surprise anyone if Toews rebounded to 65 points next year, but it also shouldn't be a shock if he failed to eclipse 55.

 

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Draft Patrik Laine over Auston Matthews this year, and do so in dynasty/keeper and seasonal leagues.

Laine's foot speed is a shortcoming, but those are concerns of past generations. Laine is going to be a fantasy star, and likely the best goal scorer entering the league since Tyler Seguin or Vladimir Tarasenko.

The wings are shallower than center. Matthews is a special player and potentially a point-per-game player in short order, but he's going to be tasked with much more going forward. Laine is being brought in as a mercenary. He's joining Winnipeg to score.

Matthews will develop into a franchise center with talented scorers surrounding him. Laine is going to score with a strong supporting cast feeding him.

Laine might not be the better real-world player, and he might not be the better fantasy player. But, both he and Matthews have tremendously high floors, and Laine has the higher ceiling.

I'll leave you with this.

While both players are 18, Matthews was born in September, whereas Laine was born in April. At first glance, it's roughly a half-year difference, but those dates mean an entire hockey season.

Also, Laine played goalie until he was 12.

 

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Here are a few quick thoughts from the draft. I'm going to keep my eye on DobberProspects and link to their Ramblings as soon as I catch they're released.

 

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I'm a Leafs fan, and I wanted Auston Matthews. I wanted the franchise center to compliment the contingent of offensive players already complied.

I also hope Toronto is finished and sits on this core for another season. Maybe they finish 10th, maybe they take a run at the playoffs, or maybe they have a lottery team.

No need to rush. Except to grab Alex DeBrincat, of course.

 

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Jim Benning looked petrified at the podium. It is almost as if there was no preparation for the draft not playing out like it was posted at HFBoards' Vancouver forum.

Columbus made a calculated choice. Feel free to debate it, but who knows less than 24 hours after the draft whether it was the right decision.

Pierre-Luc Dubois might be the right fit for the Blue Jackets, perhaps they know something others don't.

I don't know enough about Olli Juolevi, but all indications are that he's the most complete defenseman in the draft, so no shame on Vancouver, but it wasn't the player they wanted, and Benning looked gaffed.

 

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Edmonton took the best player available at fourth overall, and now they have an abundance of riches to overpay for a right-handed shot for their blue line.

Don't say they gave up too much when the deal goes down. Sometimes you have to lose a deal to improve your hockey club, and many fantasy championships have been lost because people are too proud to cough up a bit too much despite the fact it makes their team better.

If Peter Chiarelli does nothing, it is worse than overpaying for what is the biggest need. The time is now in Edmonton. Sidney Crosby won his first cup at 21. Connor McDavid's time is ticking.

 

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Calgary had a great night.

They grabbed their No. 1 goalie — with experience, I might add — and nabbed Matthew Tkachuk.

Elliott is a No. 2 goalie for fantasy, and Tkachuk adds to an envy-worthy group of Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett and Johnny Gaudreau.

Plus, the Flames have oodles of cap space with just Gaudreau and Monahan to re-sign.

With that defense, Calgary has to push hard for a playoff spot next season. Of course, assuming Glen Gulutzen can shore things up a touch in the possession department.

Back tracking, no I don't think Elliott is the answer, but he is good enough to win games and make a run.

After you make a run, who knows?

Here's Cliffy's take on the Elliott deal.

 

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It's funny to hear analysts talk about how the player selected 27th overall fits in with the current lineup. In this case, it was Brett Howden bringing size for an undersized forward group.

Howden's likely three years away from regular duty in a best-case scenario. There is an idea of what things will look like, but Ondrej Palat and Tyler Johnson will be closing in on 30 years old by the time Howden is even sniffing a prominent role.

Spinning this to keeper/dynasty players, remember, the most important season is always the next season. If you're in a rebuild, identify a core of three or four untouchables and assemble a group of players who have a chance to improve their stock significantly over the next season or two.

Flip assets as your core grows in numbers and age with improving each season in mind. Banking on everything falling into place perfectly three years down the road could pan out, but so much can change, and it isn't like your leaguemates are sitting around not looking ahead.

 

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I didn't really comprehend the trades Montreal made. They appear very lateral, outside of shipping out a "soft" player for a "gritty" player.

Considering the minimal fantasy value in most setups, it's a pretty simple shake. Lars Eller adds some depth to the Capitals, and Andrew Shaw is clearly viewed as a superior fit than Eller for the Canadiens.

 

Cliffy covered the deal here.

 

I'm not sure the Capitals top-nine forwards doesn't look like like this:

Alexander Ovechkin – Nicklas Backstrom – T.J. Oshie

Andre Burakovsky – Evgeny Kuznetsov – Justin Williams

Marcus Johansson – Lars Eller – Jakub Vrana

 

With Jason Chimera an unrestricted free agent and Vrana still needing to prove himself, I don't suspect Johansson or Eller lose much of the little fantasy value they had. This looks like an insurance deal for Washington — in case Chimera can't be brought back.

 

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Be well, Dobberheads. Enjoy Day 2.