Top 65 Keeper League Defensemen – July
Dobber
2016-07-05
The Top 65 defensemen to own in your keeper league.
These are pulled from the Top 300 Keeper League players list. In your points-only keeper leagues, here are the top 300 players to own. Remember, positions don't matter (so a defenseman may be undervalued here vs. in your league). Other factors – potential points longterm, their likely 3YP, their current pace, proneness to injury, the strength of their team and offensive coaching system, distance from career peak age.
This month I spent some time on figuring out a formula that would properly value defensemen as we go further down the list (say – beyond the first 50). I failed. I'm okay with the first 65, but the rest I had to manually go in there and move players around and it's still not great. So this month, we'll go with the Top 65. At issue is the fact that the lower on the list you go, the lower the rating – when you reach a player with a 6.5 rating and he goes up or down 1.0 rating points, he moves up or down 30 spots! They're just so close that the slighest tweak results in wild swings – so, using the current year's production variable (just one of many variables, but just using a simple example), if a player is expected to get 30 points and he gets off to a hot start and you tweak that variable to 35 points, he moves up too much and too quickly.
| Def. Rk | Player | Team | Rating | July | June |
| 1 | Erik Karlsson | OTT | 135.7 | 11 | 11 |
| 2 | John Klingberg | DAL | 100.6 | 29 | 28 |
| 3 | Brent Burns | SJS | 99.1 | 31 | 29 |
| 4 | P.K. Subban | NSH | 86.9 | 47 | 50 |
| 5 | Oliver Ekman-Larsson | ARI | 82.6 | 59 | 57 |
| 6 | Kris Letang | PIT | 80.4 | 64 | 61 |
| 7 | Roman Josi | NSH | 71.5 | 78 | 79 |
| 8 | Kevin Shattenkirk | STL | 65.6 | 96 | 88 |
| 9 | Dustin Byfuglien | WPG | 65.1 | 97 | 97 |
| 10 | Duncan Keith | CHI | 64.9 | 98 | 91 |
| 11 | Drew Doughty | LAK | 64.7 | 99 | 96 |
| 12 | Keith Yandle | FLA | 63.2 | 107 | 99 |
| 13 | John Carlson | WAS | 59.4 | 120 | 115 |
| 14 | Shea Weber | MON | 59.4 | 121 | 110 |
| 15 | Mark Giordano | CGY | 58.1 | 123 | 122 |
| 16 | Tyson Barrie | COL | 57.3 | 129 | 124 |
| 17 | Shayne Gostisbehere | PHI | 54.4 | 137 | 134 |
| 18 | Victor Hedman | TBL | 53.6 | 138 | 135 |
| 19 | Ryan Suter | MIN | 44.2 | 163 | 158 |
| 20 | Morgan Rielly | TOR | 43.5 | 164 | 162 |
| 21 | Dougie Hamilton | CGY | 42.7 | 165 | 166 |
| 22 | Justin Faulk | CAR | 39.5 | 174 | 171 |
| 23 | Aaron Ekblad | FLA | 39.5 | 175 | 174 |
| 24 | Sami Vatanen | ANA | 37.3 | 182 | 176 |
| 25 | Nick Leddy | NYI | 36.6 | 183 | 178 |
| 26 | Rasmus Ristolainen | BUF | 33.0 | 193 | 193 |
| 27 | Alex Pietrangelo | STL | 31.9 | 198 | 187 |
| 28 | TJ Brodie | CGY | 31.6 | 200 | 183 |
| 29 | Seth Jones | CBJ | 30.8 | 202 | 200 |
| 30 | Brent Seabrook | CHI | 30.7 | 204 | 188 |
| 31 | Adam Larsson | EDM | 25.7 | 213 | 384 |
| 32 | Marc-Edouard Vlasic | SJS | 24.6 | 218 | 212 |
| 33 | Jake Muzzin | LAK | 24.6 | 219 | 216 |
| 34 | Anton Stralman | TBL | 24.5 | 220 | 215 |
| 35 | Ryan Ellis | NSH | 23.7 | 225 | 221 |
| 36 | Ryan McDonagh | NYR | 22.5 | 235 | 235 |
| 37 | Jake Gardiner | TOR | 19.4 | 262 | 257 |
| 38 | Torey Krug | BOS | 18.8 | 266 | 268 |
| 39 | Mattias Ekholm | NSH | 18.8 | 267 | 266 |
| 40 | Colton Parayko | STL | 18.2 | 273 | 280 |
| 41 | Jacob Trouba | WPG | 17.7 | 284 | 306 |
| 42 | Matt Dumba | MIN | 16.9 | 289 | 299 |
| 43 | Matt Niskanen | WAS | 15.9 | 304 | 296 |
| 44 | Niklas Kronwall | DET | 15.8 | 308 | 289 |
| 45 | Michael Stone | ARI | 15.2 | 320 | 307 |
| 46 | Ryan Pulock | NYI | 14.7 | 327 | 361 |
| 47 | Hampus Lindholm | ANA | 14.4 | 329 | 328 |
| 48 | Nikita Zaitsev | TOR | 14.3 | 331 | 322 |
| 49 | Derrick Pouliot | PIT | 14.3 | 333 | 331 |
| 50 | Dion Phaneuf | OTT | 14.2 | 336 | 326 |
| 51 | Nathan Beaulieu | MON | 14.0 | 338 | 345 |
| 52 | Cam Fowler | ANA | 13.9 | 339 | 332 |
| 53 | Alex Goligoski | ARI | 13.5 | 346 | 249 |
| 54 | Tyler Myers | WPG | 13.1 | 351 | 357 |
| 55 | Dennis Wideman | CGY | 13.0 | 352 | 343 |
| 56 | Damon Severson | NJD | 12.7 | 356 | 329 |
| 57 | Cody Ceci | OTT | 12.6 | 358 | 370 |
| 58 | Colin Miller | BOS | 12.4 | 364 | 355 |
| 59 | Shea Theodore | ANA | 12.2 | 367 | 364 |
| 60 | Noah Hanifin | CAR | 11.8 | 369 | 463 |
| 61 | Darnell Nurse | EDM | 11.7 | 370 | 374 |
| 62 | Jared Spurgeon | MIN | 11.5 | 371 | 344 |
| 63 | Joshua Morrissey | WPG | 11.5 | 372 | 372 |
| 64 | Brandon Montour | ANA | 10.8 | 373 | 382 |
| 65 | Oscar Klefbom | EDM | 10.8 | 374 | 400 |
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Bit low on Colton Parayko I think, Sure only one year of data, but I see a lot of people above him I would have a lot less. I would say he will get more points, and have more TOI and PP than half of those above him at least. Perhaps taking into account a healthy Shattenkirk, and while that will have impact, I don’t think you get discovered playing at that level and then scaled back all that much.
Krug is awfully low, is it because of his offseason surgery?
Subban or Letang with roto scoring G, A, +/-, SOG, PPP, Hits. I’m thinking Subban based on Letang’s health issues. Letang being the risk/reward pick.
Depends on how easy/great your IR settings are. May not be a bad thing to take Letang if he only misses 10 games and you have an IR with a deep FA pool
I think the issue here is that Gardiner is too high. I neglected to tweak him properly and he should be down a good 10 spots or more. I’m pretty happy with where Krug/Parayko are otherwise. Most would have a problem with Ellis being higher (I think he has more upside than Krug/Parayko in terms of offense) and Larsson (I’m alone on an island in thinking he’s going to be pretty good)
Where’s Erik Johnson?
where is Mike Green?
is he really worse than Montour? no longer 35pts?