Ramblings: Wings, Lou, Doan, Rask and more (July 13)
Dobber
2016-07-12
Rambling about Halak vs. Elliott, the Red Wings, Lou, Doan, Rask and more …
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I solicited questions in the comments area of the Ramblings Monday and there were some interesting topics that I’ll tackle today…
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Jaroslav Halak vs. Brian Elliott
I like this one because each is a topic unto himself. It’s also very relevant to me because I actually own both Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak as my third and fourth goaltender and both of them are on the bubble for expansion protection. We can only protect 10 players, I’m already protecting Cam Talbot and Craig Anderson. But my 10th spot is up for grabs and Halak and Elliott are in the mix.
These two are fairly equal in value. On one hand you have Halak who is on a better team and is getting the bigger contract. So even though Thomas Greiss stole the net from him while he was injured, I think Halak gets it back. Just look at Team Europe – Halak will be the starter and Greiss will be the backup or the No.3. But Halak is also a Band-Aid Boy, so the risk is of course there.
Then you have Elliott, who finally has the net to himself but will probably be too injured to get more than 55 starts. He’s also on a pretty bad team that will win at least 10 fewer games than the Islanders.
How I’m dealing with it – I think the two are equal. But Halak couldn’t get me a bucket of pucks. Nobody wants him. Whereas there is plenty of interest in Elliott. So I’m going to try to get two or three assets for him and keep Halak (update: see below for more on this).
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Another commenter asked me to discuss how I think Adam Larsson is going to be the next Pronger. Instead, I’ll discuss how it’s not my responsibility to help readers properly absorb and interpret statements correctly. That’s actually the responsibility of your parents and your teachers. If you read something and interpret it in a wrong way, and then regurgitate it to others as something I (or anyone on the Internet) said, then that’s on you and the people who assisted in your development!
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Why is Lou nickel-and-diming the franchise’s future?
The commenter is referring to Lou Lamoriello and the Toronto Maple Leafs. Specifically, how Lou refuses to give bonuses to his top draft picks. Adam Larsson, for example (fourth overall), did not get bonuses in his entry-level contract.
I don’t really enjoy defending Lamoriello because frankly I’m not a fan. I think and hope that he’s just there as mentor for Kyle Dubas until Dubas is ready. He’s there to show how to deal with the different personalities around the league, from agents like Allan Walsh to NHL execs like Bill Daley to other GMs such as Ken Holland. I think and hope that Lou is not the sole decision maker in any trade process or contract discussion and in fact I think (and hope!) that he plays a minority role in those things while Shanahan, Dubas and Mark Hunter do the legwork.
But in this case, there is smoke but no fire. Lamoriello is not hijacking relations between the Leafs and Matthews. Auston won’t play without those bonuses, and the Leafs won’t hesitate to give them to him. Lou gave bonuses to Mitch Marner. He’s no longer held back by cash concerns as he was for years with New Jersey. Now it’s merely salary cap concerns. But Auston will get the max for everything, don’t worry. The delay is just in how the bonuses are structured – the timing of the payments, the thresholds that need to be reached. The Matthews camp is angling hard to get as much of that bonus money as possible up front and guaranteed. Dubas (and Lou) are probably insisting on something basic such as actually making the team, and maybe a bigger obstacle such as winning the Calder Trophy. But push comes to shove and the team will cave on most of these things.
This whole issue is just Maple Leafs mania. A mountain out of a molehill. Lou will go before the Leafs ever lose Matthews. Long before.
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Example of Connor McDavid’s bonuses from last season (the max of $2.85 million in bonuses):
– Top six forward in ice time per game on the team, minimum 42 games (achieved)
– 20 goals, 35 assists, 60 points (did not achieve)
– 0.73 points per game, minimum 42 games (achieved)
– Top three forward on team in plus/minus, minimum 42 games (achieved)
– All-rookie team (achieved)
– All-Star game (did not achieve)
– All-Star game MVP (did not achieve)
– Top 10 in points-per-game average in the NHL, minimum 42 games (no idea)
– Among top five vote getters for Hart or Selke trophies (did not achieve)
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I was asked about the Red Wings and their lack of attention to their defense corps this summer…
They cleared up cap space by moving the Datsyuk contract, but then what? Well, they probably wasted a little bit too much on Darren Helm. They could have let him walk. But aside from that (since perhaps you believe it helps the reputation of the franchise among players by staying loyal), they signed Thomas Vanek, Steve Ott and Frans Nielsen. I honestly don’t think Vanek will pan out, but at that dollar figure it was well worth at least checking and giving him a try. The other two are great character guys, so I think the Wings did a great job of adding the character and intangibles that they were lacking up front. For years, Ken Holland has had this conveyor belt of prospects that rolled in a couple of good ones each year. But these last few years, the prospects have been of one type – skill. So they needed Ott’s sandpaper and Nielsen’s two-way talent.
But the big weakness is on defense. Detroit has a ton of very promising prospect defensemen and I think this caused Holland to hesitate in addressing the shortcoming three years ago. And two years ago. And last year. After all –you’re Holland and you just signed a great NCAA prospect in Danny DeKeyser and you have Brendan Smith looking great as a rookie and you have Ryan Sproul, Xavier Ouellet, Alexey Marchenko and later Joe Hicketts and don’t forget how good Brian Lashoff looked early on. The problem is, Smith hasn’t taken a big enough step forward. The others can’t be written off, but none of them are going to be stars. So I think Holland is a little stuck now and he knows it. But what can he do? Free agency had Goligoski and Yandle out of the picture before the bell even rung. Honestly, the only defensemen that left that could help were Hamhuis and Russell.
Do you really want the Wings to drop $4 million per year on Russell? Eh Wings fans? I wouldn’t. Money could be better spent. So that leaves a trade. Somehow acquiring Kevin Shattenkirk would help, but it’s not enough. You need Shatty’s offense, and you need a top stay-at-home defense-first guy too. Holland’s competing with the Oilers and probably five other teams, so Wings fans I’m sure would not want him to overpay. I think the Wings head into the season with DeKeyser, Green, Kronwall, Ericsson, Smith, Marchenko and Ouellet.
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Putting my money where my mouth is – I traded (after I wrote the above, actually) Brian Elliott in my keeper league. In return I got Adam Larsson (money where my mouth is!), Calvin Pickard and a third-round draft pick (draft is four rounds, it’s a full keeper). I would lose either Elliott or Marchand in the expansion draft. Now I’d lose Pickard, Larsson or Marchand.
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Shane Doan signed a one-year deal worth $2.5 million. He’s staying with Arizona of course, given that he has a big beautiful ranch there. The soon-to-be 40-year-old is coming off of a 47-point season but 28 of those points were goals and they were scored on a 16.5 SH%. If he shoots 10% (more in line with what he does) then the 47 points become 36 points on 17 goals. I wouldn’t bet on him getting more than 40 points in this, his last (I’m calling it!) season.
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Victor Rask signed a six-year contract worth $4 million per season. That number used to sell me on a player’s value. A player signs for $4 million and he’s a Golden Boy. But these days $4 million seems to be handed out like candy. Mathieu Perreault, Kyle Palmieri, Vincent Trocheck and Reilly Smith. So $4 million is the new standard for second liners. As for my expectation for Rask, I think only two Carolina players get to 50 points and Rask isn’t one of them. He’ll be close though. Name the two I think will hit 50.
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Jordan Weal re-signed with Philadelphia. It’s a two-way deal so don’t expect a break for him this year. Last year he was dynamite in training camp, couldn’t get into the LA lineup and they couldn’t send him down or they’d lose him on waivers. Then the Flyers gave up Schenn and Lecavalier for Weal and a third – but the Flyers wouldn’t play him either! Weal played 14 games last season, but with ice time that was the equivalent of eight games for a second liner.
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Jack Campbell, one of the bigger fantasy disappointments of the last decade, has signed with the Kings on a two-way deal. So a fresh start for him, good luck.
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McDavid was 3rd in points per game avg, behind Kane and Benn.
Cant wait to see what he does in a full year…is it October yet?
Teravainen and Aho each get 50 points?
Skinner, Lindholm
Skinner and Teravainen
Faulk n skinner
Let’s not leave the individual out of the equation. Parents and (especially) teachers can instruct, model, and facilitate critical thinking, but they can’t crawl into your head and actually practice it. If the individual is unwilling to put forth the effort to develop critical thinking skills, there’s little that life’s instructors can accomplish to drag them across the finish line.
Hahaha well said
I feel for you, Dobber! But you knew you were going to hear about it as soon as you mentioned Pronger in the same paragraph as Larsson. Still a solid analogy. Do you think 35 points is achievable for Larsson this year? 1st line PP too, or will that fall to Klefbom/Sekera?
I would be the under in an over/under of 35.5
But I think at 33 or 34 I would bet the over. That’s right at that line. I’ll have to get to the Edmonton section of the Guide to really drill down and find a number I’m confident in
I need to see if another offensive Dman is brought in before the season starts. If not I can’t see how Larsson wouldn’t at least get 2nd line PP time. I think Dobber is dead on in the 30 to 35 point range; that’s safe based on what we know today, if he see’s at least 2nd line PP time.
We know that Sekera & Klefbom are seeing some PP time & Edm may well use 4 forwards on the #1 unit, if a PP specialist or solid 2 way guy isn’t brought in. If 1 is, I down grade Larsson to 25 to 30 for safe draft position. Regardless he scored 24 points in 64 games the season prior to last so in EDM his points next season will be his best to date.
If everything falls perfectly into place & Edmonton will want him to succeed he could easily come in between 35 to 40 & that’s the line we all walk come draft day. I would roll the dice on that as long as no better option available.
Faulk and Lindholm
Another one for Skinner and Lindholm (although Faulk will be close).
Dobber, thanks for the Wings insight. You really highlighted exactly what Holland has done regarding the defense. One only has to look at the total hits/blocks from the Wings defense that illustrates how soft they are. They had to be near, or at, the bottom of the NHL on those stats. Add to the fact that Kronwall was -21 and only delivered 81 hits. Those are not Kronwall numbers of the past. The physically biggest guy on defense (Ericsson) only delivered 48 hits. He would have been the NHL leader in assists if giving the puck away helping the opposition to score counted. Go Wings eh?
Fair Enough! I now agree with you about Larsson not being anywhere near the talent of Pronger.
Take Pronger’s accomplishments and subtract 15-20% and that’s what I think Larsson can do. In terms of offense, defense and leadership, year over year. So Larsson at 24 will do 15% less than Pronger at 24 (36 points – so Larsson gets 30-32 this year), Pronger at 26 gets 62 points so Larsson in 2018-19 gets 48-52), etc.
It’s a more positive outlook than 99% of the internet, I do think highly of Larsson because I don’t forget his hype during his draft year and what scouts had to say. I know how well he did the last 18 months, with stats that are hidden/buried beneath a bad team.
The Pronger trade comparison was comparing the hype and backlash of a trade with this one. Not comparing the player. Blues fans HATED it. Wanted management strung up. And if ownership had listened and fired management – how fair would that have been, as it turned out? Point is – let it play out. It won’t be so bad. I predict Larsson will okay. And Hall will be injury prone. And three years from now it won’t be this lopsided when we look back.
The most Larsson has ever produced is 0.47 PPG in 33 games in the AHL. He’s never shown anywhere close to the offensive upside of 95% of Chris Pronger. I’m really not sure where you think this untapped potential he’s literally never displayed has come from.
I’m sure you’ll respond to this post with a snarky comment as usual too.
Of course that’s how I respond to you. It’s how you respond to articles here so I respond to you in kind. Right? That’s your language, the language you know.
Can I just see your math? Where you got the 95% upside of Chris Pronger? Just take a moment and break down for me the formula that gave you 95%.
(also to address your other point, keep in mind that ‘upside’ is only that – not a likelihood, but an upside)
85%. Point still stands.
Okay man, let’s readdress in 2018. No use having the pointless ‘my dad could beat up your dad’ argument when neither of us knows for sure the future. Larsson could have both legs crushed in a plowing accident tomorrow, career ended, and then you’d be right.
I feel strongly that he’s a very good player with good upside. If you want my advice, you have it. I went and acquired him myself. If you come here to do the opposite of my advice, that’s fine too. Though I honestly believe that in the long run if you follow my advice instead of the opposite, you’ll be much better off.
My fantasy leagues only award for points for goals; 1, assists; 1, PPG’s; 1, SHG’s; 2 & OTG’s; 2 & goals by D; 1.
24 man leagues, dress 14, 3 C’ 3 LW, 3 RW’s, 4 D & 1 G. We play ahead to head format 4 games a week. 80 game schedule. We protect 9 in 1 & 12 in the other 2; 2 C, 2 LW, 2 RW, 2 D & 1G in 1 & in the 12 protectors leagues we can select 3 others players of our preference. RW is the hardest position to fill followed by LW then D. C’s & G’s can be had very cheap. To provide perspective a 35 point RW or 25 point D in real life points is as valuable as a 50 point C. Centers are a dime a dozen as a re goalies as we only dress 1.
Larsson won’t be protected in our 9 keeper league. He will be drafted no later than the 3rd round. Having moved to Edm he will most likely be protected in the other 2 I participate in & the other 5 for a total of 8 that I manage. If not protected he will be selected no later than the 30th pick, high 2nd round; 20 selections per round as so many get protected if they even have a pulse as it’s a grave yard come draft day. Just like in the real world.
You are aware that this is a fantasy hockey pool site. We aren’t just discussing real world scenario’s although we do. These guys are trying to provide insight as to future opportunities to help the layman & smart GM’s get a leg up on the competition.
Do you participate in fantasy hockey leagues that allow keepers? Play head to head formats etc.
My leagues being head to head provide for a very unusual dynamic that is very hard to qualify or quantify easily. You just have to kind of get it or not. Consistency of scoring. You need to outscore 4 other teams every week, you only need to beat them by 1 to win beating them by more is kind of a waste so even strength scoring consistency is incredibly important. Streaky scorers who score in bunches aren’t any where near as valuable as their real life scoring shows them to be.
These blogs posted here are essential to understanding all the variables in play. I highly recommend specific sites to all my new GM’s entering the leagues I run. Rest assured I take them all to task when I disagree strongly but it’s actually quite rare as they aren’t just pulling this stuff out of their ass. they are using deductive reasoning skills based on #’s.
Hey – Larsson’s points-per-game average that year was 0.58 (19 points in 33 games – he did that twice) and in his 67-game AHL career he has 40 points (0.60 points-per-game)
Prior to getting to the NHL the sample size for Larsson in Sweden is very small spread over more than 5 teams a season as he played on all their All-Star, Elite & national teams. Teammates constantly changing. Playing U18 having just turned 15. Virtually unheard of. Like a 15 year old making Major Jr & as a Dman the hardest position to play well in hockey.
They don’t play a ton of games in Europe annually, more importance is placed on practicing, they believe in the 3 to 1 formula; 3 practices for every game played, nor are their games as high scoring as, our Jr ranks, the AHL or NHL games & in the Nordic leagues cheap 2nd assists aren’t given out, if not a clean pass it doesn’t count & often if the point man shoots the goalie saves it & the player scores that 1st assist is most likely not to be given as well.
He scored at a very high level on all those various teams even showing extremely well 2 years in a row in the World Junior Championships playing against the worlds best. 1 goal, 3 assist for 4 points in 6 games in both.
This is a stud young Dman developing right on schedule that for some reason has never been deployed offensively other than in his rookie season. As a defensive Damn he is now exceptional & if ever deployed in an offensive role his points will come. NJ forced him to learn to play D 1st. Now Edm gets to let him loose a little bit offensively. The gain in points will come slowly but there coming.
Are you deliberately miss representing the facts your putting out as such or just bad at math?
As you know we are on a similar page when it comes to Larsson. I think this was a great acquisition by Edm & I assume the best deal available & that Chiarelli had exhausted all options & then some, Trouba, Hamonic, Fowler, Shattenkirk & others. This was simply the best deal available at that time & Chiarelli couldn’t afford to wait with the UFA market opening quickly & wanting to sign Lucic.
Although 1 for 1 Edm loses this deal Edm is a better team today & Edm as now constructed with out the 1 addition that is still coming eventually; a #1 PP Dman, Edm is a serous playoff contender next season & if they can find a #1 PP Dman even a 1 year solution say like a Streit they are a playoff team. Playing as a 3rd pairing guy 5 on 5. I don’t have the same issue most of you seem to have with right & left shooting Dman. Tons of NHL Dman play their off side. Balance would be perfect but far from essentially. Quality, abilities & skill come 1st regardless. Long before right & left.
Larsson is now 1 of the best defensive Dman in the NHL, his TOI/GP, hits, blocked shots put him in very high company at D & he is just scratching the surface of his potential & is right on the perfect development track. What’s odd is most Dman by the 274 games on NHL regular season experience with this pedigree are getting at least 2nd line PP time. He did in his rookie year but hasn’t since. I can only assume he was simply to valuable in a defensive role to deploy in offensive situations. His PP TOI/GP, 2nd in NJ last season nominally behind Greene; seconds both for TOI/GP & SH TOI/GP, zone starts & plus minus show just that. He was NJ’s best Dman last season & only 22 when the season started.
He has way more to give offensively if ever given that opportunity.
Skinner will get 54
Aho will get 52
Answer to Carolina question:
Teravainen 53
Skinner 51
Faulk 49
Four players between 45 and 48
Regarding Detroit’s defense
Is anyone keeping an eye on Robbie Russo? In his first year in the AHL, he put up more points than Sproul in fewer games, produced at a better rate than Ouellet, and was somehow a plus-40 on a team where the second best was plus-18. The numbers say he did lose steam in the playoffs, but here’s a guy they picked up for nothing, finishes first among their AHL D-men for the regular season and second in the playoffs.
I think only two Carolina players get to 50 points and Rask isn’t one of them. He’ll be close though. Name the two I think will hit 50.
Sebastian Aho 51 points
Jeff Skinner 60 points
Interesting considering he scored 48 points last season in only his 2nd full season in the league, is still earning his opportunities, entering his break through season, no E. Staal to bite into his quantity & quality & the best line up Carolina has probably iced in close to a decade reducing the checking pressure he received last season. Teraivanen, Aho & Lindholm will bite into his quality minutes, even Stepniak, Staal & Skinner to a slightly lesser extent.
I have Rask as Carolina’s #1 offensive C next season; Staal will lead in TOI/GP, similar to Kadri leading Tor last season doing all the really heavy lifting, leading Carolina in scoring with 25 goals & 60 points; 26 & 61 to be precise, but I consider a projection to be accurate if with in 5 points give or take. Baring injury I can’t see how he won’t score 50.
I have 3 players getting 50 points in Carolina next season baring injury. Rask, Teravainen & Faulk. Lindholm should but it depends on deployment. If he plays RW yes but if he plays as the 3rd line C no. Skinner & Staal will be very close but the odds of probability, or averages if you prefer, don’t show 5 players getting more 50 points on the same team in today’s NHL. I haven’t looked but I would wager of the top of my head that no team had 5 50 point players last season?
I have Carolina making the playoffs next season based on what we know today but we are still 3 months away from our final projections & if they miss it will be because they don’t have good enough goaltending but boy has Francis done a nice job of rebuilding this team in 2 short years. The future is starting to look very bright & with all that cap space he has the potential to do far more at a nominal cost. Like getting Teravainen by eating Bickell’s contract.
Does anyone think Peter’s will keep the Nordstrom, Staal, Nestrasil line intact next season? Icing it as essentially the 3rd unit or with all the new players signed & talent coming does he tweak it? Down the stretch last season when all were healthy this was a big line for Carolina scoring some very important goals. I’m struggling with Carolina’s depth/line up chart as currently as if Nordstrom doesn’t play as the #3 C baring another acquisition I see Lindholm having to take that spot & I much prefer him at RW with Rask at C.
Teravainen, Rask, Lindholm.
Skinner, Stall, Aho.
Stalberg, Nordstrom, Stempniak.
Bickell, McClement, Nestrasil.
Spare. TBD.
Aho may have to earn his way to the 2nd line spot but he is a world class talent so perhaps he & Stempniak flip flop but playing him with Carolina’s best defensive forward makes sense to me.
9 Teams had 5+ 50 point scorers. Boston, Colorado, Dallas, Florida, LA, Nashville, Ottawa, Pittsburgh, and Washington.
Thanks Ryan. As I said I hadn’t checked. Now I need to check yours. Ha-ha! Boston had 4, Colorado had 4 all others did have at least 5.
Knowing that now; again thank you, I will say Carolina can match that next season, so I add Skinner & Staal to the list as long as none of the 5 players miss more than 7 games.
For Boston, I guess Stempniak only played 19 games with the Bruins but he surpassed 50. He did not produce at a 50 point pace in Boston however. For Colorado, Boedker played 18 games and surpassed 50. He did produce over a 50 point pace in Colorado. If we use a margin of error of 3 (so 47+ points counts as a 50 point player), I would say 2/3s of the league had at least 5. Up to you if you think that’s a fair threshold to use.
It doesn’t work that way for me but I respect your view point & perception of such. For me it was how many players scored 50 points playing for their teams but 7 0r 9 who really cares.
7 out of 30 is slightly better than 20% & I appreciate your taking the time to check. It changes my perception of what Carolina’s forward group can achieve next season. It will be scoring by committee much like a Florida did last season as opposed to a small group posting huge #’s.
My comment wasn’t directed at the 50 point scorers specifically but your math for Larsson. Rest assured I take Dobber & others to task often but with Larsson we have a very similar perspective.
Montreal would have had it too, if not for Gallagher’s injury.
Your other post isn’t showing on my web page, although it came to my email. I am home sick so brain not functioning at full speed. Betting on what? Not that I condone any form of illegal betting. Ha-ha!
All teams have injury’s. Should a, could a, would a, but didn’t.
I’m fairly certain when we look at the NHL Official Guide & Record book & a players career stat as recorded by the NHL they don’t extrapolate points or points per game if they had stayed healthy or got more games. That’s part of the game. Who will & can play in the best league in the world & stay healthy.
It has a significant impact on what most teams are willing to pay a player.
I’m fairly certain when we look at the NHL Official Guide and Record book they don’t keep stats on which teams had five 50 point players, and yet here we are. There’s no point being pedantic about your arbitrary cutoff. Fact is, on top of the 6 teams that actually hit the mark this year, at least 2 other teams (MTL and BOS) missed your invented mark by a single point. You want to guess what the margin of error on a player’s season-long point totals? (I’ll give you a hint, it’s more than 1 point.)
I’m moving to Raleigh in 1 month, love that there is some Canes chatter here! I’m no Canes expert, but looking at Frozen Pool line combos for end of last year, I’d look at something like (ranking from a fantasy production perspective):
Skinner-Rask-Tera – Primary O-zone deploy
Nordstrom-Staal-Stemper
PP1 – Faulk-Skinner-Staal-Tera-Stemper
Carolina is still developing, I don’t see the need to rush a guy like Aho to the NHL….but it all depends on how he looks I guess.
Congratulations James. You’ll love it there. Beautiful geography & weather. Games are cheap & Carolina is a great young hockey team especially at D.
Carolina is almost a playoff team now, very close certainly a playoff contender as currently constructed & if Francis flexes his financial might, if allowed by ownership & could bring in 2 more top 9 players, 1 ideally being a top 2 RW/LW depending upon how Teravainen is deployed I think even with their below average goaltending would be a playoff team.
Carolina has a ton of players that can play various positions, Teravainen any of the forward positions numerous others as well. Allowing for a ton of roster flexability.
How much we betting?
(1) Ovechkin, Backstrom, Kuznetsov, Oshie, Williams.
(2) Crosby, Malkin, Kessel, Letang, Hornqvist.
(3) Benn, Seguin, Klingberg, Spezza, Sharp.
(4) Karlsson, Sone, Hoffman, Ryan, Zibanejad.
(5) Forsberg, Josi, Neal, Weber, Ribeiro.
(6) Kopitar, Toffoli, Carter, Lucic, Doughty.
Sorry everyone, I have to do a full site restore. I think that means I’ll lose the last five articles and all the comments for those articles. I will of course re-post the articles, but I can’t figure out how to save the comments. Great dialogue though
I expect the Isles to trade Halak before the season if he can demonstrate he is healthy in the World Cup. Snow pronounced Greiss a legit #1 goalie after the playoffs, they have since re-signed Berube to a one-way deal (and they seem quite on him generally), and Halak has previously publicly bristled at being part of a 3-goalie rotation.
Thanks for the perspective on Halak/Elliott dobber! Food for thought for sure!