Top 10 Bounce-Back Candidates (2016-17)
Tom Collins
2016-08-01
Looking at the top 10 bounce-back candidates for the 2016-17 fantasy hockey season.
As we get closer to the start of another fantasy hockey season, a lot of fantasy general managers are deciding on who to keep.
There's always tough decisions, but the hardest is trying to figure out the players who had an off year. Was it the start of things to come or can these players actually bounce back to have more fantasy relevance once again?
Below are 10 players that are due for a bounce-back season. Note that I don't include guys who were injured last season unless they were horrible when they actually got into some games.
On to the list.
10. Evander Kane
For Kane, it's more of a bounceback to when he was still with the Jets and had all the talent and expectations that came with it. We've seen his points-per-game drop off each year as his off-ice problems increase In the last five years. But I think this will be the year he finally turns it back around and it has to do more with his teammates. Kyle Okposo gives Kane another top-six option to play with. Then the young guys of Jack Eichel and Sam Reinhart will be a little older and more experienced. And Kane will be determined to prove that he can contribute on the ice despite all his legal issues.
Couture missed 30 games but wasn't as effective for your fantasy squad as he should have been when he did play. His 0.69 points-per-game was his lowest of the past five seasons. Just 21 of his 36 points came while even strength. He also saw his lowest time on ice per game average of the past five years and he saw a lot of Joonas Donskoi, Tommy Wingels and Joel Ward as linemates. But remember that he did have a streak of 18 points in 20 games once he came back from his injury and still plays on the Sharks' top power play unit.
8. Radim Vrbata
It seems weird that Vrbata is on the list even though he doesn't even have an NHL contract. He's still a prime candidate for a bounce-back season. He'd be number one on the list if he actually was signed somewhere. His 0.43 points-per-game last year was his worst of the last five years (in three of those years he was around 0.80 points per game), his minus-30 was one of the worst in the NHL, and his 5 on 5 shooting percentage of 5.25 per cent was awful. All he needs to do is be a little better in each category and it will be considered a great rebound year.
7. Rick Nash
Nash had a horrible season last year. But he started off hot. Most poolies forget that. Nash had 29 point in 38 games to start the year (a 63-point pace), but seven in 22 games in the second half (a 26-point pace). It will be interesting to see what happens now that his most common linemate, Derick Brassard, is gone. Injuries derailed him somewhat but he should be able to get back to the 60-point mark.
6. Tuukka Rask
Rask just had his worst season since 2010-11 with a 2.56 GAA and a .915 save percentage when he played just 29 games and was backup to Tim Thomas. However, there are some reasons to believe Rask will post better numbers. His slow start to the season impacted his overall numbers. From Dec. 1 to March 31, Rask had a more respectable 2.34 GAA and a .924 save percentage. Also to consider, he had great numbers against the East (23-11-6, .925 save percentage, 2.30 GAA) and was horrible against the west.
Much was made of Voracek's demotion to the fourth line last year. But there were some bright signs in his so-so season. He did see 18:35 ice time per game, highest of his career. He was still on the Flyers' top power play unit and notched 23 assists with the man advantage. He still shot the puck a ton. He just couldn't score (just 11 goals overall and one on the power play).
4. Corey Perry
This past season was one of Perry's worst fantasy seasons to date. You could argue 2011-12 was worse, but that year he had almost double the PIM and 60 more shots so he was more helpful then. Don't get me wrong, he was still a great fantasy asset. But his 62 points in 82 games was disappointing. Part of that was being split from Ryan Getzlaf for part of the season. A new coach will be able to get Perry back on track.
Anderson has one of these love-hate relationships with his career. One year, he's dynamite and the next season he posts some pretty horrific numbers. This year he's due for a great campaing. New coach Guy Boucher is committed to having the team play better defense (which is great as long as he doesn't bring back that awful 1-3-1 trap). There's no one to challenge him for starts. It all looks good for another great season for Anderson, until next year anyways.
2. Mark Streit
Everyone is raving about Shayne Gostisbehere but people should also be paying attention to Streit. Just like Andrei Markov had a bit of a career resurgence when playing with the much young P.K. Subban, the same will happen for Streit this year. In the last 23 games of the season, Streit played regularly with Ghost on both the power play and even strength with Streit posting 11 points, four power play points and 46 shots in that timeframe. Even better is that he still saw 3:34 of power play ice time per game and 22:39 overall. He'll push for 45 to 50 points this year.
Everyone was expecting a 70-point season from Johnson this past season. Or maybe even a 60-point season if things went badly. Instead Johnson was way below that at 38 points. Albeit in 69 games. But that was still just a 45-point pace. But there's no reason to believe Johnson won't be able to bounce back. He has great chemistry with his linemates and plays on the squad's top power play unit. He should be able to get back to 60 points pretty easily.
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Do I think most of these guys are good picks to do better than they did last season? Absolutely. But do I still think that in most cases (notably Perry, Nash, Kane) the cost it would take to draft/trade for them would be more than the value they would provide? Yes. So I guess this is good news for those who own these players in keepers; however, for folks in one year leagues I’d still recommend exercising caution to ensure not to overpay, as although these guys dipped below expectations last season their previous history and/or name recognition will cause their cost to be too high to provide a reasonable return on investment.
One small gripe too – picking Couture after his playoffs seems like a bit of a cop out. I might have gone with someone like Foligno (he was on a run of 15 points in 14 games before his first injury last season) or, dare I say, Vanek.
For sure on the first paragraph. Even if you believe they will bounce back, don’t overvalue these guys. For example, it would be safe to value Nash as a 60-point player instead of a 40-point player. But don’t expect him to get 80 points.
As for Couture, I purposefully left the playoff out. Johnson had a great playoffs as well. I don’t think Vanek or Foligno will bounce back.
We can agree to disagree on Foligno – I think he’s a lock for 55 points if he plays 80+ games, with potential for 60-65+.
In regards to Streit, do you think his ”bounce-back” potential is 100% linked to him playing with Ghost? For example, if Provorov or another d-man or even a forward gets the other PP1 slot, does Streit end up with 20-something points instead of the predicted 45-50 when the bell rings on the 2016-17 season? Or did he have a down year in 2015-16 due to nagging injuries and he may still have enough left in the tank to post quality numbers regardless of who he pairs up with?
It’s not necessarily linked to him playing with Ghost, but it is linked to him getting top minutes. If he’s on the second PP unit and plays 17 minutes a game overall, then it’s a lot tougher to get points than being on the top PP and 22 minutes. I think he can still get quality numbers as long as he gets the opportunity.
What do Vrbata, Nash, Perry, Anderson and Streit all have in common? They’re all at least 31. So are these really bounce-back candidates, or is 50% of the list about players on the decline?
PS: I’d include Ryan Getzlaf. From 87 to 63 points in two years.
The thing is, those five guys you mentioned, it’s not like they were in a slow decline like Eric Staal was. These guys had productive years two seasons ago and I believe this past season was more of an anomaly.
Getlzaf is a good choice as well. He had a horrible start last year that really had a big impact on his overall numbers.
Fair enough. But I think that in Nash’s case good seasons are an anomaly ;)
When was the last time that Getzlaf and Perry haven’t had a bad start? Hopefully they’ll both rebound if Carlyle is smart enough to keep them on the same line.
How about John Tavares? His points-per-game has dropped for 3 straight seasons.
What about Jonathan Toews?
I’d be surprised to see Rask’s numbers improve much, if at all, given Boston’s bottom 10 (or worse) defense corps.
I’m a fan of Foligno, but since Johansen’s departure his numbers have dropped to where they were before he started playing on his wing. Johansen vs Dubinsky, Wennberg or Karlsson? Expecting more than 45 points seems unrealistic.
Unless Provorov is a bust this season or is injured long-term, I can’t imagine Streit’s production rebounding by more than a few points. He’ll be 39 in December, too.
Radim Vrbata isn’t even signed. If we knew which team he was playing on and who would be likely to center him, only then could a rebound be estimated.
Vanek isn’t guaranteed a top-6 spot with the Wings like he was with the Wild and has far more competition from Detroit’s deep forwards corps and promising stable of young forwards. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him relegated to the 3rd or 4th line for most of the season with sporadic icetime on the 2nd powerplay unit. A rapidly declining Zetterberg and mediocre offensive center like Frans Nielsen doesn’t help matters. Were he playing alongside Datsyuk, if he’d stayed, a rebound would have been a reasonable assumption.