Dobber’s Offseason Fantasy Grades: San Jose
Dobber
2016-09-07
Dobber's offseason fantasy hockey grades – San Jose Sharks
For the last 13 years (12 with The Hockey News) I have reviewed each team from a fantasy-hockey standpoint and graded them. My 14th annual review will appear here on DobberHockey throughout the summer. This is not a review of the likely performance on the ice or in the standings, but in the realm of fantasy hockey.
Enjoy!
Gone – Nick Spaling, Matt Tennyson, Roman Polak, James Reimer, Dainius Zubrus
Incoming – Mikkel Boedker, David Schlemko
Impact of changes – They didn’t make a lot of moves and they didn’t have a whole lot of cap space to make those moves. But the moves they made unquestionably improved the team. The addition of Boedker gives them a top six forward with 20-goal, 55-point potential – and his arrival solidifies the top nine. It actually pushes Melker Karlsson (likely) to the fourth line. Check out these projected line combos (per my Fantasy Guide):
Joe Thornton – Joe Pavelski – Joonas Donskoi
Tomas Hertl – Logan Couture – Tommy Wingels
Mikkel Boedker – Patrick Marleau – Joel Ward
Melker Karlsson – Chris Tierney – Matthew Nieto
With Karlsson, Donskoi and Wingels interchangeable. This is an aging group, with core guys Thornton (37), Marleau (38) and Pavelski (32) now past their prime. But they have a couple of top prospects knocking on the door, and Boedker (26) was one of the youngest unrestricted free agents out there. His signing, combined with a healthy roster, could mean that both Timo Meier and Nikolay Goldobin (more on them below) start the season in the minors – with Meier going back to the QMJHL.
The Schlemko signing gives the team the option of delaying Mirco Mueller’s arrival for another year.
Ready for full-time – Goldobin tallied 21 goals and 44 points in 60 AHL games last season, so he’s almost got that league figured out. He’s on the cusp of a roster spot, though the Boedker signing will make that difficult. Still, because he’s in the AHL as opposed to junior, he’ll be the first player called up this season. Put him on a scoring line and potentially he could surprise as a rookie. (Read more on Goldobin here)
Meier was the ninth overall pick in 2015 and he’s just capped off two years of QMJHL dominance whilst playing for Halifax and Rouyn-Noranda. He’s got nothing left to prove at the junior level, but will have to go back there if he doesn’t make the team. Look for him to get a nine-game trial and perhaps the Sharks will make room for him. A Calder candidate if he makes the team. (Read more on Meier here)
Mueller is a stay-at-home defenseman with a bit of upside (maybe the high-30s, though likely lower). He has been playing pro hockey for two years now, but only started to get the hang of things around the midpoint last year. He could use at least another half-season of AHL time. (Read more on Mueller here)
Mantas Armalis is so dreamy. Wait, did I type that or just think it? In all seriousness, the recently-signed free agent goaltender moonlights as a model (Google his image – he makes Henrik Lundqvist look like a cave man). He’s a solid goaltending prospect, but is at least a year away from the NHL. However, the Sharks do not have a backup goalie right now, so…until that changes, Armalis could be the man. But given Martin Jones plays 65 to 70 games, the Sharks may just settle for a seldom-played, inexperienced backup. (Read more on Armalis here)
Fantasy Outlook – With two 70-point forwards, a rare 70-point defenseman in Brent Burns, and a potential 70-point player in Logan Couture, it’s no wonder that the Sharks ranked fourth in scoring last season. Throw in a few potential 55-point players in Donskoi, Boedker, Hertl and Marleau, plus breakthrough rearguard Marc-Edouard Vlasic, and fantasy owners need to give this team a second look. Yes, the core is aging – but GM Doug Wilson has done a great job of setting this team up to transition to the next group of young, skilled players.
Fantasy Grade: B (last year was C+)
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Pavelski should be past his prime, but he keeps racking up the numbers. For several years now I’ve passed on him for a younger player and ended up smacking myself in the head. I’m worried about Burns because he’s overdue for an injury.
I’m always leery about picking players from teams that have been in the finals because of the hangover the teams often experience due to the number of games they’ve played during the season (100 or so plus exhibition games) and the injuries that nearly every player experiences during the playoff run, plus the fact that several players on the teams that make the finals often have had career years they are unlikely to replicate (Burns) or players are more productive than usual (Thornton, Vlasic). Edmonton and Carolina both crumbled in ’06, for instance, but that is an extreme example.
Am I being too pessimistic, Dobber?
No, I think you may be right. I’ve just been predicting a decline of this team for a couple of years now and at this point I’m tired of getting burned!
I read an article the other day or heard on the NHLnetwork, I can’t remember where, that Hertl maybe shifted back to C again but that doesn’t necessarily make sense to me & due to Couture’s injury’s last season Marleau played a ton of C & I see him sliding into the #3 spot.
I can’t see Thornton playing LW he played C last season & Pavelski RW, nor do I see Wingels getting a top 6 role. For that matter I don’t necessarily see him even getting a top 9 role but wingers will be flopped around so whether 1st or 2nd line; top 6 forwards, or 3rd or 4th lines; bottom 6 forwards, those those 2 groups ice times will be some what interchangeable at least at ES with in those groups. Power play time really separating the players in TOI/GP. Wingels barely played come playoff time last season. No forward logged less TOI/GP.
I currently have it.
Hertl, Thornton, Pavelski.
Donskoi, Couture, Boedker.
Karlsson, Marleau, Ward.
Nieto, Tierny, Wingels.
Should Hertl in fact play C, then Marleau slides back to LW but not certain how the lines would then play out. When Hertl was injured in the playoffs last season it was Karlsson that moved into his spot & with only 118 games of NHL regular season experience he is still almost 1 full season away from my breakthrough target for him. Regardless he has more to give than he has shown to date. What that is who knows. Doesn’t see any quality PP time so very limited & other players will get that time I assume when Thornton & or Marleau move on next season. Thornton may return but I don’t see Marleau returning after next season & that will open up some quality PP time for someone.
If Hertl does play C.
Boedker/Donskoi?, Thornton, Pavelski.
Marleau, Couture, Donskoi/ Boedker?
Karlsson, Hertl, Ward.
Nieto, Tierny, Wingels.
Coaches flip flop players around constantly & tend to ice pairs far more consistently today than a set 3 player line. Thornton & Pavelski, Bergeron & Marchand, Eichel & Reinhart, Monahan & Gaudreau, etc. with the 3rd player sort of in constant flux. Injuries will factor in & muddy the waters when they do but I see my 1st combination as the far more likely formation based on what we know today for the majority of games.
Should a Goldobin or Meier be ready to steal a job & there is always room at the top, I could see a Nieto or Wingels waived or traded to make room & that would easily allow for Hertl to be moved to C or they just except Nieto & wingels as the 13th forward/spare.
My preferred line up for next season.
Goldobin/Meier?, Thornton, Pavelski.
Donskoi, Couture, Boedker.
Marleau, Hertl, Ward.
Karlsson/Nieto, Tierny, Nieto/Wingels.
Spare. Wingels/Nieto/ Karlsson.
From a pure business perspective, their current ages & development, sending Meier back to Jr makes sense but if he outplays Goldobin & is ready Goldobin still has waiver rights so anything is possible & SJ may better served with future injury needs being able to bring Goldobin back up from the minors as required. The future looks very bright for SJ with these 2 young players coming.