Ramblings: Eberle, Ruutu, Seguin, Elias and more (Sep 14)

Dobber

2016-09-13

Rambling about Eberle, Ruutu, Seguin, the Sedins, Rakell, Elias and more …

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Last Fantasy Guide update was Saturday. I also updated the Draft List. Updates start coming fast and furious (daily or even multiple times per day) when camp opens and there are lots of changes.

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Before I begin, I want to touch upon the Guide for a moment and clarify something. The projections need to be taken in its entirety – and that means more than just the number I provide. If I predict 56 points for Prospect X, does that mean you can count on Prospect X to get 56 points? Kind of, but not exactly. Because Prospect X, in the ‘Prospect’ chart, is listed at 65% to make the team. Prospect X is also in the sleeper chart at 65 points with 15% likelihood. So what does this all mean? Well, if Prospect X has a poor camp or is sent down for contract reasons, then he’s obviously not going to get 56 points. He’ll actually get zero. If he makes the team, then he’ll get pretty close (I’m confident) to 56 points with a small chance of reaching as many as 65. So while many magazines may hedge the projection by saying he’ll play 67 games and get 40 points – I say “nay, Bob”. He either gets zero or he gets over 50. Period. The other way is just a copout.

Now, the problem with my method is that a year from now all the calculator nerds will go over my projections (and other outlets) and ding me for being off by 56 points if he gets cut. But I think it’s the best way to do it. It’s honest, it’s realistic and it properly prepares you. You need to decide how much of that 35% risk you’re willing to take on. Hope this quick-and-dirty lesson helps!

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The last two articles that I wrote have been the outlooks for the Maple Leafs and the Canucks. Both articles went on longer than most because there are so many things in play with those squads, both for the short and long term. I think the Leafs are a year ahead of where Vancouver is. I also think the Leafs are moving faster than the Canucks. I don’t think Vancouver has been making any horrible deals (though that Gudbranson – McCann one was questionable), they just haven’t been doing enough. The Leafs signed players last summer with the specific purpose of dealing them for draft picks at the deadline. They cleaned house and made sure they had the best chance at a Top 2 pick. Then they brought in a proven goalie. Vancouver just seems to be playing it safe. Slow and steady wins the race? They’re adding young players with a bit of upside – Markstrom, Baertschi, Etem, Granlund and Philip Larsen. So I guess that’s one way to go about it. But if two of those players breaks through and turns into something, then I’d consider Vancouver lucky. I think Markstrom will be fine – so we need one more. And I don’t mean Baertschi turning into a 45-point guy for example. No, I actually mean a legit scoring forward up over 60 points. Anyway, I’m not saying the Vancouver rebuild will fail while Toronto’s will succeed, I’m saying it will take a couple of extra years for Vancouver to find out. Whereas if Toronto’s starts failing, it will be caught sooner and they can react. Just a thoug