Looking Ahead: Players Who Can Help in the Short Term, Long Term, and Also Disappoint
Mike Schmidt
2016-10-07
Looking Ahead: Players that can help in the short term, long term, and may disappoint.
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All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to be wary of for the time being and a fourth who is primed to disappoint over the long haul. Since this the 2016-17 season is yet to get under way, the format has been tweaked a little bit. However, the regular column will return once the games commence. Now without further ado…
The Cost-Effective, Short-Term Option: Derick Brassard, C, Ottawa – He’s never going to evolve into a point-per-game player, but the 29-year-old Brassard has settled into the kind of capable offensive-minded center fantasy owners can rely on as a plug-and-play option in a pinch. He’s durable, is entrenched as a top-six forward, and he doesn’t hurt poolies in any particular categories. In addition, he averaged 59 points per season over his last two years as a member of the New York Rangers, which marked his age-27 and age-28 campaigns.
Now, Brassard is with the Senators, and he seems poised to be a big part of his squad’s offensive attack in 2016-17. Can he reach the 60-point barrier? It’s in play, at least as long as he sees almost 18 minutes of ice time per game (as he did a year ago). It should be noted, though, that Brassard received a bit more than his fair share of favorable luck in 2015-16. His shooting percentage of .148 was well above his career mark of .102, and Rangers goaltenders posted a sparkling .923 save percentage when Brassard was on the ice.
Nevertheless, this veteran should be trusted as a usable reserve option in shallow leagues and a trusted starter in deeper formats. After all, 50 points is the absolute minimum his fantasy owners will get from him in a healthy campaign.
The Monster-In-Waiting: Jonathan Drouin, LW, Columbus – Is this the year that the talented young winger goes BOOM for fantasy owners? Well… possibly. There’s just so much talent here, that it’s fair to wonder whether more ice time, consistent action on the power play, and a regular role on the same line as Steven Stamkos will allow the 21-year-old to blossom into a high-end fantasy asset. In 91 games, he’s averaged just 13 minutes, 31 seconds of ice time, and managed only eight points scored on the man advantage. It’d be nice to see Drouin settle into a role where he’s playing alongside Stamkos and Ondrej Palat — as he is in practice right now — and carve out a role as part of a talented top six. Will it happen? So far, Drouin’s done nothing but disappoint (at least in the regular season), and his limited track record of regular action as an NHL player makes it difficult (read: impossible) for any fantasy analysis of his numbers to suggest he’s absolutely, positively due for a breakout. When all is said and done, employing Drouin in redraft leagues requires a leap of faith, and confidence that his immense potential can be translated into tangible production.
Useful, But Overrated: Ryan Suter, D, Minnesota – Last year, in his age-31 campaign, Suter broke the 50-point barrier for the first time in his 11-year career. That’s just about the only statistic fantasy owners need to remember when considering drafting or trading for this veteran blueliner.
It’s no secret he logs a ton of minutes (27 minutes and 17 seconds is the lowest average time on ice he’s registered in his four seasons with the Wild). What’s all that ice time led to in terms of production? How about an average of 38.5 points per campaign in Minnesota. Only four defensemen logged more time on the man advantage than Suter did a year ago (Arizona’s Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Ottawa’s Erik Karlsson, San Jose’s Brent Burns and Montreal’s P.K. Subban), so the volume will be there for Suter. However, given his track record, there’s good reason to believe last year was as good as it will get for this rearguard. Don’t pay the price for Suter’s career season.
The Bust: Zdeno Chara, D, Boston – The 2016-17 season will mark Chara’s age-39 season, and it’s safe to say his time as a truly reliable fantasy blueliner is behind him. Consider the following… This accomplished veteran last exceeded 50 points in an NHL season in 2011-12, when he registered 52 in 79 games played – over the course of the past two NHL campaigns, Chara has seen action in 143 games and totaled just 57 points. In addition, last year marked the first season he took fewer than two shots per goal on game since 2001-02. Despite his lack of production and opportunity, Chara’s still being scooped up late in drafts, and is actually owned in 69-percent of Yahoo leagues. While the veteran defensemen still has a bit of value in multi-cat formats that count hits and blocks (as he has 134 and 123 of each a year ago), fantasy owners would be better served to look elsewhere for production (and upside) on the blue line this season.
By taking some time to analyze the upcoming NHL schedule, poolies can gain a significant and measurable edge over their opponents. Now let’s identify some teams that will hurt fantasy owners in the season’s opening weeks.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Vancouver – Expectations aren’t extremely high for the Canucks in 2016-17. This is a team in transition, and no longer boast the high-end talent they possessed in the early 2010s. That being said, fantasy owners can feel free to lean on the Sedins and other Canucks during the season’s first few days. After all, Vancouver opens the year with five of its first seven games at home. Just try not to pay attention to the troubling fact that the squad’s two road tilts during that stretch come against Los Angeles and Anaheim.
Chicago – Seven of this team’s first 10 games come at home. As if poolies needed another reason to fire up the Blackhawks they roster…
Calgary – Rejoice, Johnny Gaudreau owners! The first eight days of the NHL season will do little to test the Flames. The team will open with back-to-back games against the (very) beatable Edmonton Oilers. Then the squad goes to Vancouver, hosts Buffalo and hosts Carolina. Enjoy.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Buffalo – The NHL regular season kicks off on Oct. 12. The Sabres open their campaign a day later at home against Montreal. Then they go on the road for four straight contests in 13 days. The volume of games isn’t there, and the team will be away from Buffalo quite a bit during the month of October. There just isn’t much to like here.
Columbus – What’s worse than Columbus playing just three times in the season’s first 10 days? Well… Then the Blue Jackets go on the road for four straight to close out the month of October. Also, it should be noted that those four road contests will come against Dallas, Los Angeles, San Jose and Anaheim. Yikes…
Toronto – Toronto will open their year with four of five on the road. But hey, Auston Matthews!
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I enjoyed the read. Definitely agree with the players you singled out, and the reasoning behind them.
Just a small correction of Drouin being on Tampa Bay, and not Columbus as shown.
what do u think of ehlers of winnipeg this for a breakout.