Top 200 Fantasy Prospect Forwards – October 2016

Dobber

2016-10-13

The Top 200 forward prospects to own in keeper league fantasy hockey – October edition

Boy, training camp sure moved players up and down the fantasy value list, eh? Whether it was Arturri Lehkonen's impressive camp in Montreal, or Danton Heinen's seizing a spot in Boston, or perhaps some players who made huge impressions but didn't quite make the team (such as Josh Ho-Sang with the Islanders) – lots of adjustments to make in how you rank players. Not only for your roster, but in trade talks and at the draft table too (yes, late drafts are still happening). And then there are are the disappointments. Did anyone expect Shea Theodore and Ryan Pulock to be cut? More on those two tomorrow, when I post the D rankings.

These rankings factor the prospect's offensive upside, the certainty that he will become an NHLer, the length of time we have to wait – and to a lesser extent, the roster he is joining, proneness to injury and immediate production (if applicable). Letter indicators are p=power forward t=two-way o=offensive os=offensive but small. There are a million categories we could put these prospects in, but I'm stuffing them – sometimes forcibly – into just the four.

* * * Get Dobber's 11th Annual Fantasy Hockey Guide and/or the Fantasy Prospects Report HERE * * *

Don't forget – you can read the prospects historical observations, outlook and stats by clicking on his name.

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Oct 10	Prospect	Team	type	Prospect Rating	Sep 10	Aug 10
1	Auston Matthews	TOR	o	113.2	1	1
2	Patrik Laine	WPG	p	111.8	2	2
3	Jesse Puljujarvi	EDM	t	98.5	3	3
4	Mitch Marner	TOR	o	91.9	4	4
5	Dylan Strome	ARI	o	88.2	5	5
6	William Nylander	TOR	o	87.7	6	6
7	Pierre-Luc Dubois	CBJ	o	81.6	7	7
8	Christian Dvorak	ARI	o	80.8	8	8
9	Sebastian Aho	CAR	o	77.7	9	9
10	Oliver Bjorkstrand	CBJ	o	76.3	14	14
11	Mikko Rantanen	COL	p	76.2	10	10
12	Kyle Connor	WPG	o	75.3	11	11
13	Jimmy Vesey	NYR	o	75.0	12	12
14	Pavel Zacha	NJD	p	74.4	13	13
15	Travis Konecny	PHI	o	74.1	15	15
16	Mathew Barzal	NYI	o	70.7	18	18
17	Nick Ritchie	ANA	p	69.6	16	16
18	Brayden Point	TBL	os	69.3	17	17
19	Matthew Tkachuk	CGY	p	68.8	22	25
20	Sonny Milano	CBJ	o	67.9	19	19
21	Jake Virtanen	VAN	p	67.7	20	20
22	Anthony Mantha	DET	o	67.7	21	21
23	Colin White	OTT	o	67.2	23	23
24	Clayton Keller	ARI	o	67.2	24	22
25	Timo Meier	SJS	o	65.8	36	36
26	Andreas Athanasiou	DET	o	65.8	25	26
27	Nick Schmaltz	CHI	o	65.5	32	51
28	Jakub Vrana	WAS	o	65.3	26	27
29	Kevin Fiala	NSH	o	64.9	27	28
30	Artturi Lehkonen	MON	o	64.8	85	90
31	Tyler Motte	CHI	os	63.9	49	58
32	Adrian Kempe	LAK	o	63.0	29	29
33	Zach Hyman	TOR	o	62.9	77	78
34	Connor Brown	TOR	o	62.8	46	45
35	Pavel Buchnevich	NYR	o	62.6	37	37
36	Brett Ritchie	DAL	p	62.5	30	30
37	Tyson Jost	COL	o	62.4	40	40
38	Alexander Nylander	BUF	o	62.2	41	41
39	Kevin Labanc	SJS	o	62.1	53	52
40	Ivan Barbashev	STL	t	62.1	42	42
41	Joel Eriksson Ek	MIN	o	61.9	78	79
42	Brock Boeser	VAN	p	61.9	43	43
43	Lawson Crouse	ARI	p	61.7	45	44
44	Danton Heinen	BOS	o	61.7	157	166
45	Ty Rattie	STL	o	61.7	34	33
46	Sven Andrighetto	MON	os	61.5	48	47
47	Nicolas Petan	WPG	os	61.5	47	46
48	Devin Shore	DAL	t	61.2	55	54
49	Michael McCarron	MON	p	61.2	35	34
50	Teemu Pulkkinen	MIN	o	61.2	33	32
51	Jonathan Marchessault	FLA	os	61.1	50	48
52	Alex Tuch	MIN	p	61.0	52	50
53	Jayce Hawryluk	FLA	o	60.7	51	49
54	Daniel Sprong	PIT	o	60.4	39	39
55	Nick Paul	OTT	p	60.4	38	38
56	Jason Dickinson	DAL	t	60.4	54	53
57	Nikolay Goldobin	SJS	o	60.1	66	66
58	Ryan Dzingel	OTT	o	60.1	56	55
59	Nick Cousins	PHI	o	59.9	57	56
60	Vladislav Kamenev	NSH	t	59.4	60	60
61	Hudson Fasching	BUF	p	59.2	63	63
62	Charles Hudon	MON	o	59.1	64	64
63	Josh Ho-Sang	NYI	o	59.0	79	81
64	Conor Sheary	PIT	o	59.0	82	84
65	Evgeny Svechnikov	DET	p	58.5	68	68
66	Michael Dal Colle	NYI	o	58.5	31	31
67	Tobias Lindberg	TOR	o	58.3	58	59
68	J.T. Compher	COL	t	58.3	61	61
69	Andrew Copp	WPG	o	58.1	71	71
70	Frank Vatrano	BOS	o	57.7	44	57
71	Logan Brown	OTT	o	57.6	72	72
72	Joel Armia	WPG	o	57.5	73	73
73	Martin Reway	MON	o	56.8	59	35
74	Kasperi Kapanen	TOR	o	56.8	75	76
75	Anthony Beauvillier	NYI	o	56.7	103	105
76	Emile Poirier	CGY	o	56.6	76	77
77	Alan Quine	NYI	o	56.4	86	86
78	Riley Barber	WAS	t	56.1	80	82
79	Drake Caggiula	EDM	os	56.1	81	83
80	Jake Guentzel	PIT	o	55.9	125	123
81	Reid Boucher	NJD	o	55.8	74	74
82	Seth Griffith	TOR	o	55.8	62	62
83	Daniel Carr	MON	o	55.7	88	88
84	Nikita Scherbak	MON	o	55.3	65	65
85	Brendan Perlini	ARI	o	55.3	87	80
86	Kerby Rychel	TOR	p	55.2	28	24
87	Anton Rodin	VAN	o	54.8	90	87
88	Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson	BOS	o	54.5	91	91
89	Nick Merkley	ARI	o	54.5	83	75
90	Hunter Shinkaruk	CGY	o	54.4	92	92
91	Cole Cassels	VAN	o	54.3	89	89
92	Tyler Bertuzzi	DET	p	54.2	106	108
93	Zach Sanford	WAS	o	54.2	147	146
94	Marko Dano	WPG	o	54.1	70	70
95	Matt Puempel	OTT	o	53.8	94	94
96	Brendan Gaunce	VAN	o	53.6	98	100
97	Brendan Leipsic	TOR	o	53.4	84	85
98	Joseph Blandisi	NJD	o	53.3	69	69
99	Michael McLeod	NJD	t	52.7	101	103
100	Francis Perron	OTT	o	52.4	97	99
101	Sergey Tolchinsky	CAR	os	52.4	93	93
102	Rocco Grimaldi	COL	os	52.1	67	67
103	Riley Tufte	DAL	p	51.9	102	104
104	Jean-Christophe Beaudin	COL	o	51.8	104	106
105	Maxim Letunov	SJS	o	51.5	105	107
106	Bryan Rust	PIT	o	51.5	96	98
107	Ryan Hartman	CHI	t	51.2	107	109
108	Julius Nattinen	ANA	o	50.9	95	96
109	Nicolas Roy	CAR	p	50.9	109	126
110	Deven Sideroff	ANA	o	50.9	110	144
111	Anthony Richard	NSH	o	50.8	112	111
112	Markus Granlund	VAN	o	50.8	113	112
113	Brock McGinn	CAR	p	50.7	114	113
114	Denis Gurianov	DAL	o	50.6	130	127
115	Henrik Samuelsson	ARI	t	50.5	117	97
116	Nikita Soshnikov	TOR	o	50.4	118	116
117	Kevin Roy	ANA	o	50.2	119	117
118	Adam Erne	TBL	p	50.2	120	118
119	German Rubtsov	PHI	t	50.2	121	119
120	Dominik Simon	PIT	o	50.1	123	121
121	Dmytro Timashov	TOR	o	50.0	108	110
122	Kalle Kossila	ANA	os	49.8	122	120
123	Alex DeBrincat	CHI	os	49.6	158	200
124	Ryan MacInnis	ARI	t	49.5	124	122
125	Nick Sorensen	ANA	o	49.1	127	136
126	Josh Leivo	TOR	p	49.1	128	125
127	Vaclav Karabacek	BUF	t	49.0	129	157
128	Cole Ully	DAL	o	49.0	161	158
129	Mark Jankowski	CGY	p	48.9	131	128
130	Brendan Lemieux	WPG	p	48.8	132	129
131	Phillip Di Giuseppe	CAR	o	48.6	133	130
132	Josh Anderson	CBJ	t	48.4	145	143
133	Nicolas Aube-Kubel	PHI	o	48.4	134	131
134	Dennis Rasmussen	CHI	o	48.3	111	95
135	Alexander Khokhlachev	BOS	o	48.2	135	132
136	Luke Kunin	MIN	o	48.1	136	133
137	Jens Looke	ARI	o	48.1	137	134
138	Andreas Johnson	TOR	o	47.9	116	115
139	Laurent Dauphin	ARI	o	47.8	150	149
140	Christian Fischer	ARI	t	47.6	139	137
141	Rourke Chartier	SJS	o	47.5	140	138
142	John Quenneville	NJD	t	47.4	141	139
143	Radel Fazleyev	PHI	o	47.3	142	140
144	Anton Slepyshev	EDM	o	47.3	99	101
145	Jack Roslovic	WPG	p	47.3	143	141
146	Nikita Gusev	TBL	os	47.3	144	142
147	Stanislav Galiev	WAS	o	47.1	115	114
148	Rasmus Asplund	BUF	o	46.9	146	145
149	Jordan Weal	PHI	os	46.9	100	102
150	J.C. Lipon	WPG	t	46.7	148	147
151	Daniel O'Regan	SJS	o	46.6	149	148
152	Vince Hinostroza	CHI	os	46.6	160	156
153	Brett Pollock	CGY	t	46.6	151	150
154	AJ Greer	COL	p	46.4	334	330
155	Valentin Zykov	CAR	o	46.4	171	169
156	Nicklas Jensen	NYR	p	46.4	152	151
157	Ryan Gropp	NYR	p	46.4	153	159
158	Austin Czarnik	BOS	os	46.3	154	152
159	Martins Dzierkals	TOR	o	46.3	155	153
160	Lukas Sedlak	CBJ	o	46.2	265	264
161	Oskar Lindblom	PHI	t	46.0	159	155
162	Justin Bailey	BUF	o	45.8	162	160
163	Nicholas Baptiste	BUF	o	45.8	163	161
164	Axel Holmstrom	DET	o	45.6	164	162
165	Giorgio Estephan	BUF	o	45.5	165	163
166	Derek Grant	BUF	o	45.4	166	164
167	Warren Foegele	CAR	o	45.4	205	205
168	Jake DeBrusk	BOS	o	45.3	189	186
169	Denis Malgin	FLA	os	45.3	304	301
170	Thomas Novak	NSH	o	45.0	168	218
171	Kyle Rau	FLA	os	45.0	169	167
172	Aleksi Saarela	CAR	o	45.0	170	168
173	Adam Tambellini	NYR	o	44.9	172	170
174	Jeremy Bracco	TOR	o	44.8	173	171
175	Zach Senyshyn	BOS	o	44.8	199	198
176	Tom Kuhnhackl	PIT	o	44.6	156	154
177	Daniel Zaar	CBJ	o	44.6	175	173
178	Andrew Mangiapane	CGY	o	44.5	176	174
179	Remi Elie	DAL	p	44.4	177	175
180	Ryan Fitzgerald	BOS	o	44.4	178	176
181	Cristoval Nieves	NYR	o	44.2	188	246
182	Andrew Poturalski	CAR	o	44.1	179	177
183	Colton Sissons	NSH	t	44.1	180	178
184	Samuel Blais	STL	o	44.1	181	179
185	Paul Bittner	CBJ	p	44.1	182	180
186	Travis Boyd	WAS	o	44.1	183	181
187	Mario Lucia	MIN	o	44.0	184	182
188	Noah Rod	SJS	t	44.0	185	183
189	Conor Garland	ARI	os	44.0	186	184
190	Tanner Kero	CHI	o	43.9	174	172
191	Matej Stransky	DAL	o	43.9	201	202
192	Martin Frk	CAR	o	43.9	248	247
193	Mitchell Stephens	TBL	o	43.7	187	185
194	T.J. Tynan	CBJ	os	43.5	190	187
195	Scott Kosmachuk	WPG	t	43.4	191	189
196	Adam Helewka	SJS	o	43.4	192	190
197	Dylan Sadowy	DET	o	43.4	193	191
198	Miles Wood	NJD	o	43.4	234	234
199	Kieffer Bellows	NYI	p	43.1	196	195
200	Thomas Di Pauli	PIT	o	43.0	198	197

R McGinnis 2016-10-13 at 15:49Log in to Reply

None of these guys deserve to be ranked over Boeser:

Oliver Bjorkstrand
Brayden Point
Sonny Milano
Jake Virtanen
Anthony Mantha
Colin White
Timo Meier
Andreas Athanasiou
Nick Schmaltz
Jakub Vrana
Kevin Fiala
Artturi Lehkonen
Tyler Motte
Adrian Kempe
Zach Hyman
Connor Brown
Brett Ritchie
Kevin Labanc
Ivan Barbashev
Joel Eriksson Ek
- Dobber 2016-10-13 at 16:18Log in to Reply
  
  I’m going to address these one by one. I like Boeser a lot.
  
  Bjorkstrand – not even close. The 45 points he’ll get this year, potentially 55, is GOLD. Rather than a roster spot rotting on your team doing nothing, you’re getting contributions NOW. And while Boeser’s upside is 75, Bjorkstrand’s is even higher. This name is so wrong that I think you just slipped it in as a joke.
  
  Point – Not as much upside, but again I prefer the help here and now rather than the future maybe. Still give me point. And if Boeser were offered up for Point in my Keeper league the Point owner would laugh (interestingly enough, I just got off the phone with the Point owner – yep, he’d laugh).
  
  Milano – Maybe. I probably do prefer Boeser here. But the formula again favors the player who is there now. At least if Milano is a bust, we’ll know this by next summer and can drop and replace him with another Boeser. A Boeser-type prospect, there are 20 of those who crop up every year.
  
  Virtanen – I think I agree with you here. But again – formula is favoring wait time.
  
  Mantha – Same. I agree with you. Same reason though.
  
  White – Wrong. I own White and I could have drafted Boeser. But I CHOSE White. And I’m happy with it. And Boeser wasn’t even next on my list (it was Motte). I like White’s certainty, upside and wait time more.
  
  Meier – LOL come on. Really? Poll your peers and you’ll find 1% agree with you (and then you’d realize that your vote was that 1%)
  
  Athanasiou – Today, I’d consider them equal. I want to see what AA does between now and Christmas. Again – you get results NOW and don’t have to wait. And if he fails, you drop him and draft the next Boeser.
  
  Schmaltz – No, I’d take him over Boeser. I like Boeser better, but again – Schmaltz is close. I don’t want to wait on players that long.
  
  Vrana – Probably equal. Not worthy of discussing difference.
  
  Fiala – I agree with you.
  
  Lehkonen – Uh, nope. I just drafted him and he was 21st on my list, Boeser was 16th. But since that draft Lehkonen has gone lights-out in camp and actually made the team (which I didn’t expect). So a re-draft today would see me take Lehkonen in a heartbeat.
  
  Motte – I like him better than Schmaltz, so I’d take him over Boeser.
  
  Kempe – Yes! I agree with you. Kempe is overrated in fantasy. My formula and analysis captures that overrating.
  
  Hyman – I agree with you. But Hyman is contributing now and playing with Matthews. So that’s why he got the bump this month. Intriguing immediate value. He may go back down again next month. That’s why I do these rankings each month.
  
  Brown – Agreed. But at this point we’re talking about 62.8 rating versus 61.9 rating and I always say +/- 5.0 are equal players. Tomato vs. Tomatto.
  
  Ritchie/Labanc/Barbashev/Eriksson-Ek – Same
  
  Hope this helped!
  - R McGinnis 2016-10-13 at 16:43Log in to Reply
    
    Well we don’t disagree on all of them I guess.
    
    I am a Vancouver fan granted, but me listing Virtanen in there (pure points leagues) should demonstrate I am no homer. Virtanen tops out as a 50 point player max, possibly 45. Boeser projects as the next Patrick Sharp. I watched him a ton last year (ND) and he is a far better NHL prospect than White and Schmaltz. It’s not even close. You keep saying ‘wait time’ but he is not going back to ND next year. Colin White is back in the NCAA (just like Boeser is this season) so I don’t even see how you can argue he is closer to the NHL. Boeser has very little competition in Vancouver. Not true for White in Ottawa. Boeser was the better player in college last year and showed a lot more that can translate at the NHL level. He will be in Vancouver and you can bank on him winning a roster spot on the top two lines ahead of Virtanen and Hansen.
    
    Milano should not even be in the top 50. Honestly he is a marginal NHL prospect. Think Granlund ceiling (the bad version).
    
    Hyman and Brown remind me of Dixon Ward, Harold Druken type prospects. Who cares if they are in the NHL, they are going to do very little for you long term.
    
    Your formula is clearly based more on exceptionally deep keeper leagues so I can kind of see where you are coming from. That said, getting 30 points from a Mark Dano type this year, should hold zero sway. When you can find a forward that projects as a 65 point player in a James Neal, Patrick Sharp type (which Boeser is), you hold him in high regard. He is Vancouver’s best NHL prospect, certainly the best fantasy prospect we have…ahead of Juolevi, Demko, and Virtanen and for me it’s not even close.
    
    As for fast starts…Boeser 6 pts in his first two games this year.

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12	DET	vs	TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12	BUF	vs	CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12	N.J	vs	CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12	DAL	vs	MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12	STL	vs	NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12	UTA	vs	COL
Dec 27 - 22:12	S.J	vs	VGK