Top 200 Fantasy Prospect Forwards – October 2016

Dobber

2016-10-13

The Top 200 forward prospects to own in keeper league fantasy hockey – October edition

 

Boy, training camp sure moved players up and down the fantasy value list, eh? Whether it was Arturri Lehkonen's impressive camp in Montreal, or Danton Heinen's seizing a spot in Boston, or perhaps some players who made huge impressions but didn't quite make the team (such as Josh Ho-Sang with the Islanders) – lots of adjustments to make in how you rank players. Not only for your roster, but in trade talks and at the draft table too (yes, late drafts are still happening). And then there are are the disappointments. Did anyone expect Shea Theodore and Ryan Pulock to be cut? More on those two tomorrow, when I post the D rankings.

These rankings factor the prospect's offensive upside, the certainty that he will become an NHLer, the length of time we have to wait – and to a lesser extent, the roster he is joining, proneness to injury and immediate production (if applicable). Letter indicators are p=power forward t=two-way o=offensive os=offensive but small. There are a million categories we could put these prospects in, but I'm stuffing them – sometimes forcibly – into just the four.

 

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Don't forget – you can read the prospects historical observations, outlook and stats by clicking on his name.

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Oct 10 Prospect Team type Prospect Rating Sep 10 Aug 10
1 Auston Matthews TOR o 113.2 1 1
2 Patrik Laine WPG p 111.8 2 2
3 Jesse Puljujarvi EDM t 98.5 3 3
4 Mitch Marner TOR o 91.9 4 4
5 Dylan Strome ARI o 88.2 5 5
6 William Nylander TOR o 87.7 6 6
7 Pierre-Luc Dubois CBJ o 81.6 7 7
8 Christian Dvorak ARI o 80.8 8 8
9 Sebastian Aho CAR o 77.7 9 9
10 Oliver Bjorkstrand CBJ o 76.3 14 14
11 Mikko Rantanen COL p 76.2 10 10
12 Kyle Connor WPG o 75.3 11 11
13 Jimmy Vesey NYR o 75.0 12 12
14 Pavel Zacha NJD p 74.4 13 13
15 Travis Konecny PHI o 74.1 15 15
16 Mathew Barzal NYI o 70.7 18 18
17 Nick Ritchie ANA p 69.6 16 16
18 Brayden Point TBL os 69.3 17 17
19 Matthew Tkachuk CGY p 68.8 22 25
20 Sonny Milano CBJ o 67.9 19 19
21 Jake Virtanen VAN p 67.7 20 20
22 Anthony Mantha DET o 67.7 21 21
23 Colin White OTT o 67.2 23 23
24 Clayton Keller ARI o 67.2 24 22
25 Timo Meier SJS o 65.8 36 36
26 Andreas Athanasiou DET o 65.8 25 26
27 Nick Schmaltz CHI o 65.5 32 51
28 Jakub Vrana WAS o 65.3 26 27
29 Kevin Fiala NSH o 64.9 27 28
30 Artturi Lehkonen MON o 64.8 85 90
31 Tyler Motte CHI os 63.9 49 58
32 Adrian Kempe LAK o 63.0 29 29
33 Zach Hyman TOR o 62.9 77 78
34 Connor Brown TOR o 62.8 46 45
35 Pavel Buchnevich NYR o 62.6 37 37
36 Brett Ritchie DAL p 62.5 30 30
37 Tyson Jost COL o 62.4 40 40
38 Alexander Nylander BUF o 62.2 41 41
39 Kevin Labanc SJS o 62.1 53 52
40 Ivan Barbashev STL t 62.1 42 42
41 Joel Eriksson Ek MIN o 61.9 78 79
42 Brock Boeser VAN p 61.9 43 43
43 Lawson Crouse ARI p 61.7 45 44
44 Danton Heinen BOS o 61.7 157 166
45 Ty Rattie STL o 61.7 34 33
46 Sven Andrighetto MON os 61.5 48 47
47 Nicolas Petan WPG os 61.5 47 46
48 Devin Shore DAL t 61.2 55 54
49 Michael McCarron MON p 61.2 35 34
50 Teemu Pulkkinen MIN o 61.2 33 32
51 Jonathan Marchessault FLA os 61.1 50 48
52 Alex Tuch MIN p 61.0 52 50
53 Jayce Hawryluk FLA o 60.7 51 49
54 Daniel Sprong PIT o 60.4 39 39
55 Nick Paul OTT p 60.4 38 38
56 Jason Dickinson DAL t 60.4 54 53
57 Nikolay Goldobin SJS o 60.1 66 66
58 Ryan Dzingel OTT o 60.1 56 55
59 Nick Cousins PHI o 59.9 57 56
60 Vladislav Kamenev NSH t 59.4 60 60
61 Hudson Fasching BUF p 59.2 63 63
62 Charles Hudon MON o 59.1 64 64
63 Josh Ho-Sang NYI o 59.0 79 81
64 Conor Sheary PIT o 59.0 82 84
65 Evgeny Svechnikov DET p 58.5 68 68
66 Michael Dal Colle NYI o 58.5 31 31
67 Tobias Lindberg TOR o 58.3 58 59
68 J.T. Compher COL t 58.3 61 61
69 Andrew Copp WPG o 58.1 71 71
70 Frank Vatrano BOS o 57.7 44 57
71 Logan Brown OTT o 57.6 72 72
72 Joel Armia WPG o 57.5 73 73
73 Martin Reway MON o 56.8 59 35
74 Kasperi Kapanen TOR o 56.8 75 76
75 Anthony Beauvillier NYI o 56.7 103 105
76 Emile Poirier CGY o 56.6 76 77
77 Alan Quine NYI o 56.4 86 86
78 Riley Barber WAS t 56.1 80 82
79 Drake Caggiula EDM os 56.1 81 83
80 Jake Guentzel PIT o 55.9 125 123
81 Reid Boucher NJD o 55.8 74 74
82 Seth Griffith TOR o 55.8 62 62
83 Daniel Carr MON o 55.7 88 88
84 Nikita Scherbak MON o 55.3 65 65
85 Brendan Perlini ARI o 55.3 87 80
86 Kerby Rychel TOR p 55.2 28 24
87 Anton Rodin VAN o 54.8 90 87
88 Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson BOS o 54.5 91 91
89 Nick Merkley ARI o 54.5 83 75
90 Hunter Shinkaruk CGY o 54.4 92 92
91 Cole Cassels VAN o 54.3 89 89
92 Tyler Bertuzzi DET p 54.2 106 108
93 Zach Sanford WAS o 54.2 147 146
94 Marko Dano WPG o 54.1 70 70
95 Matt Puempel OTT o 53.8 94 94
96 Brendan Gaunce VAN o 53.6 98 100
97 Brendan Leipsic TOR o 53.4 84 85
98 Joseph Blandisi NJD o 53.3 69 69
99 Michael McLeod NJD t 52.7 101 103
100 Francis Perron OTT o 52.4 97 99
101 Sergey Tolchinsky CAR os 52.4 93 93
102 Rocco Grimaldi COL os 52.1 67 67
103 Riley Tufte DAL p 51.9 102 104
104 Jean-Christophe Beaudin COL o 51.8 104 106
105 Maxim Letunov SJS o 51.5 105 107
106 Bryan Rust PIT o 51.5 96 98
107 Ryan Hartman CHI t 51.2 107 109
108 Julius Nattinen ANA o 50.9 95 96
109 Nicolas Roy CAR p 50.9 109 126
110 Deven Sideroff ANA o 50.9 110 144
111 Anthony Richard NSH o 50.8 112 111
112 Markus Granlund VAN o 50.8 113 112
113 Brock McGinn CAR p 50.7 114 113
114 Denis Gurianov DAL o 50.6 130 127
115 Henrik Samuelsson ARI t 50.5 117 97
116 Nikita Soshnikov TOR o 50.4 118 116
117 Kevin Roy ANA o 50.2 119 117
118 Adam Erne TBL p 50.2 120 118
119 German Rubtsov PHI t 50.2 121 119
120 Dominik Simon PIT o 50.1 123 121
121 Dmytro Timashov TOR o 50.0 108 110
122 Kalle Kossila ANA os 49.8 122 120
123 Alex DeBrincat CHI os 49.6 158 200
124 Ryan MacInnis ARI t 49.5 124 122
125 Nick Sorensen ANA o 49.1 127 136
126 Josh Leivo TOR p 49.1 128 125
127 Vaclav Karabacek BUF t 49.0 129 157
128 Cole Ully DAL o 49.0 161 158
129 Mark Jankowski CGY p 48.9 131 128
130 Brendan Lemieux WPG p 48.8 132 129
131 Phillip Di Giuseppe CAR o 48.6 133 130
132 Josh Anderson CBJ t 48.4 145 143
133 Nicolas Aube-Kubel PHI o 48.4 134 131
134 Dennis Rasmussen CHI o 48.3 111 95
135 Alexander Khokhlachev BOS o 48.2 135 132
136 Luke Kunin MIN o 48.1 136 133
137 Jens Looke ARI o 48.1 137 134
138 Andreas Johnson TOR o 47.9 116 115
139 Laurent Dauphin ARI o 47.8 150 149
140 Christian Fischer ARI t 47.6 139 137
141 Rourke Chartier SJS o 47.5 140 138
142 John Quenneville NJD t 47.4 141 139
143 Radel Fazleyev PHI o 47.3 142 140
144 Anton Slepyshev EDM o 47.3 99 101
145 Jack Roslovic WPG p 47.3 143 141
146 Nikita Gusev TBL os 47.3 144 142
147 Stanislav Galiev WAS o 47.1 115 114
148 Rasmus Asplund BUF o 46.9 146 145
149 Jordan Weal PHI os 46.9 100 102
150 J.C. Lipon WPG t 46.7 148 147
151 Daniel O'Regan SJS o 46.6 149 148
152 Vince Hinostroza CHI os 46.6 160 156
153 Brett Pollock CGY t 46.6 151 150
154 AJ Greer COL p 46.4 334 330
155 Valentin Zykov CAR o 46.4 171 169
156 Nicklas Jensen NYR p 46.4 152 151
157 Ryan Gropp NYR p 46.4 153 159
158 Austin Czarnik BOS os 46.3 154 152
159 Martins Dzierkals TOR o 46.3 155 153
160 Lukas Sedlak CBJ o 46.2 265 264
161 Oskar Lindblom PHI t 46.0 159 155
162 Justin Bailey BUF o 45.8 162 160
163 Nicholas Baptiste BUF o 45.8 163 161
164 Axel Holmstrom DET o 45.6 164 162
165 Giorgio Estephan BUF o 45.5 165 163
166 Derek Grant BUF o 45.4 166 164
167 Warren Foegele CAR o 45.4 205 205
168 Jake DeBrusk BOS o 45.3 189 186
169 Denis Malgin FLA os 45.3 304 301
170 Thomas Novak NSH o 45.0 168 218
171 Kyle Rau FLA os 45.0 169 167
172 Aleksi Saarela CAR o 45.0 170 168
173 Adam Tambellini NYR o 44.9 172 170
174 Jeremy Bracco TOR o 44.8 173 171
175 Zach Senyshyn BOS o 44.8 199 198
176 Tom Kuhnhackl PIT o 44.6 156 154
177 Daniel Zaar CBJ o 44.6 175 173
178 Andrew Mangiapane CGY o 44.5 176 174
179 Remi Elie DAL p 44.4 177 175
180 Ryan Fitzgerald BOS o 44.4 178 176
181 Cristoval Nieves NYR o 44.2 188 246
182 Andrew Poturalski CAR o 44.1 179 177
183 Colton Sissons NSH t 44.1 180 178
184 Samuel Blais STL o 44.1 181 179
185 Paul Bittner CBJ p 44.1 182 180
186 Travis Boyd WAS o 44.1 183 181
187 Mario Lucia MIN o 44.0 184 182
188 Noah Rod SJS t 44.0 185 183
189 Conor Garland ARI os 44.0 186 184
190 Tanner Kero CHI o 43.9 174 172
191 Matej Stransky DAL o 43.9 201 202
192 Martin Frk CAR o 43.9 248 247
193 Mitchell Stephens TBL o 43.7 187 185
194 T.J. Tynan CBJ os 43.5 190 187
195 Scott Kosmachuk WPG t 43.4 191 189
196 Adam Helewka SJS o 43.4 192 190
197 Dylan Sadowy DET o 43.4 193 191
198 Miles Wood NJD o 43.4 234 234
199 Kieffer Bellows NYI p 43.1 196 195
200 Thomas Di Pauli PIT o 43.0 198 197

 

 

3 Comments

  1. R McGinnis 2016-10-13 at 15:49

    None of these guys deserve to be ranked over Boeser:

    Oliver Bjorkstrand
    Brayden Point
    Sonny Milano
    Jake Virtanen
    Anthony Mantha
    Colin White
    Timo Meier
    Andreas Athanasiou
    Nick Schmaltz
    Jakub Vrana
    Kevin Fiala
    Artturi Lehkonen
    Tyler Motte
    Adrian Kempe
    Zach Hyman
    Connor Brown
    Brett Ritchie
    Kevin Labanc
    Ivan Barbashev
    Joel Eriksson Ek

    • Dobber 2016-10-13 at 16:18

      I’m going to address these one by one. I like Boeser a lot.

      Bjorkstrand – not even close. The 45 points he’ll get this year, potentially 55, is GOLD. Rather than a roster spot rotting on your team doing nothing, you’re getting contributions NOW. And while Boeser’s upside is 75, Bjorkstrand’s is even higher. This name is so wrong that I think you just slipped it in as a joke.

      Point – Not as much upside, but again I prefer the help here and now rather than the future maybe. Still give me point. And if Boeser were offered up for Point in my Keeper league the Point owner would laugh (interestingly enough, I just got off the phone with the Point owner – yep, he’d laugh).

      Milano – Maybe. I probably do prefer Boeser here. But the formula again favors the player who is there now. At least if Milano is a bust, we’ll know this by next summer and can drop and replace him with another Boeser. A Boeser-type prospect, there are 20 of those who crop up every year.

      Virtanen – I think I agree with you here. But again – formula is favoring wait time.

      Mantha – Same. I agree with you. Same reason though.

      White – Wrong. I own White and I could have drafted Boeser. But I CHOSE White. And I’m happy with it. And Boeser wasn’t even next on my list (it was Motte). I like White’s certainty, upside and wait time more.

      Meier – LOL come on. Really? Poll your peers and you’ll find 1% agree with you (and then you’d realize that your vote was that 1%)

      Athanasiou – Today, I’d consider them equal. I want to see what AA does between now and Christmas. Again – you get results NOW and don’t have to wait. And if he fails, you drop him and draft the next Boeser.

      Schmaltz – No, I’d take him over Boeser. I like Boeser better, but again – Schmaltz is close. I don’t want to wait on players that long.

      Vrana – Probably equal. Not worthy of discussing difference.

      Fiala – I agree with you.

      Lehkonen – Uh, nope. I just drafted him and he was 21st on my list, Boeser was 16th. But since that draft Lehkonen has gone lights-out in camp and actually made the team (which I didn’t expect). So a re-draft today would see me take Lehkonen in a heartbeat.

      Motte – I like him better than Schmaltz, so I’d take him over Boeser.

      Kempe – Yes! I agree with you. Kempe is overrated in fantasy. My formula and analysis captures that overrating.

      Hyman – I agree with you. But Hyman is contributing now and playing with Matthews. So that’s why he got the bump this month. Intriguing immediate value. He may go back down again next month. That’s why I do these rankings each month.

      Brown – Agreed. But at this point we’re talking about 62.8 rating versus 61.9 rating and I always say +/- 5.0 are equal players. Tomato vs. Tomatto.

      Ritchie/Labanc/Barbashev/Eriksson-Ek – Same

      Hope this helped!

      • R McGinnis 2016-10-13 at 16:43

        Well we don’t disagree on all of them I guess.

        I am a Vancouver fan granted, but me listing Virtanen in there (pure points leagues) should demonstrate I am no homer. Virtanen tops out as a 50 point player max, possibly 45. Boeser projects as the next Patrick Sharp. I watched him a ton last year (ND) and he is a far better NHL prospect than White and Schmaltz. It’s not even close. You keep saying ‘wait time’ but he is not going back to ND next year. Colin White is back in the NCAA (just like Boeser is this season) so I don’t even see how you can argue he is closer to the NHL. Boeser has very little competition in Vancouver. Not true for White in Ottawa. Boeser was the better player in college last year and showed a lot more that can translate at the NHL level. He will be in Vancouver and you can bank on him winning a roster spot on the top two lines ahead of Virtanen and Hansen.

        Milano should not even be in the top 50. Honestly he is a marginal NHL prospect. Think Granlund ceiling (the bad version).

        Hyman and Brown remind me of Dixon Ward, Harold Druken type prospects. Who cares if they are in the NHL, they are going to do very little for you long term.

        Your formula is clearly based more on exceptionally deep keeper leagues so I can kind of see where you are coming from. That said, getting 30 points from a Mark Dano type this year, should hold zero sway. When you can find a forward that projects as a 65 point player in a James Neal, Patrick Sharp type (which Boeser is), you hold him in high regard. He is Vancouver’s best NHL prospect, certainly the best fantasy prospect we have…ahead of Juolevi, Demko, and Virtanen and for me it’s not even close.

        As for fast starts…Boeser 6 pts in his first two games this year.

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