Looking Ahead: Week Three (2016-17)
Mike Schmidt
2016-10-21
Why Sean Couturier makes a solid fantasy hockey pick up and other hot takes for the week a head.
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their team’s upcoming schedule. Without further ado…
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use them for the next several days)
Sean Couturier, C, Philadelphia (Available in 90 percent of Yahoo leagues) – It may come as a surprise to some fantasy owners that Couturier is just 23 years of age. It seems like he’s been in the NHL for some time now. But that’s mostly because HAS been in the NHL for some time now. A first-round draft pick by the Flyers in 2011, Couturier made his NHL debut a few months later at the tender age of 19 and quickly established himself as a valuable, defensive-oriented forward. While he’s long been one of those better-in-real-life-than-fantasy-type players, he’s starting to evolve into a genuine asset on the offensive end of the ice. It certainly doesn’t hurt that so far this season Couturier has been seeing action on the same line as talented teammate Jakub Voracek. The lone problem? He’s not seeing a ton of ice time on the man advantage. In fact, NINE Flyers are seeing more power play action per game than he is so far on the young season. It’s (very) but early, poolies should keep tabs on how Couturier is being deployed moving forward. That being said, he’s more than capable of totaling more than 50 points on the season. After all, he scored 39 in 63 games a year ago. Given how advantageous his schedule is in the short term, give him a look as a plug-and-play option in all but the shallowest of formats. Doing so will likely pay off.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Nikolaj Ehlers, LW/RW, Winnipeg (Available in 66 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Take notice, fantasy owners. Ehlers, a first-round selection by the Jets in 2014, has found himself skating on the same line as Blake Wheeler and Mark Scheifele to start the 2016-17 campaign. It’s difficult to imagine Ehlers being placed in better position to produce offensively than that, and he see more than enough ice time and power play time to justify being a speculative add in all leagues. Consider this: Wheeler, Scheifele and defenseman Dustin Byfuglien are the only three players on the squad averaging more time on the man advantage per game so far on the young season. All systems are a go for Ehlers to have a standout sophomore campaign for a Winnipeg squad looking to develop its young talent and build toward the future. The young winger is off to a solid enough start with a pair of points in four games played, but it is more than reasonable to suggest that he’s destined to score at a higher rate soon. The odds are very good that he’ll break the 50-point barrier, and he’s a decent bet to approach 60.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Henrik Sedin, C, Vancouver (Owned in 65 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Not all that long ago, owning a Sedin in fantasy was quite the luxury. Whether they employed Henrik or Daniel, poolies knew they had a guy who was going to put up points in bunches. Henrik was a point-per game player for three straight seasons between 2008 and 2011, and very nearly achieved that moniker during several other campaigns over the course of his illustrious career. With time, though, the 36-year-old has devolved into more of an unspectacular version of his former self. In two of the last three seasons, he’s seen action in ~70 games and scored 50 or so points (most of which were assists, obviously). Much like another veteran centerman covered in this column a couple of weeks back, Sedin now takes a lot fewer shots than he did in years past. It seems pretty safe to say he won’t total more than a 100 on the season, largely due to the fact that he has done so just once since the 2011-12 campaign. Again, Sedin is a fine player. But he’s on the downside of his career and should no longer be an every-week fixture in all formats. And when the schedule isn’t looking so good, feel free to place him on the bench until circumstances improve.
The Anchor (He’ll do nothing but disappoint even over the long haul)
Kyle Palmieri, RW, New Jersey (Owned in 83 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Few poolies, if anyone, expected this former Anaheim Duck to register 30 goals in his inaugural campaign with the New Jersey Devils a year ago. After all, he scored 14 in 2014-15. He also scored 14 in 2013-14. How did he suddenly become a threat to put the puck in the net at such a high rate? Well, for starters, he fired off 222 shots last season, or almost double his total from the year prior. He also averaged nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game, or approximately four minutes more per contest than in 2014-15. He also benefitted from quite a bit of good fortune. Consider the following:
- His shooting percentage of .137 a season ago was a career high.
- New Jersey goaltenders posted a save percentage of .941 while Palmieri was on the ice.
- His PDO was a whopping 102.4. That’s really, really high. Also, it’s unsustainable over the long haul.
All of this is to say don’t expect 57 points from Palmieri again. His banner 2015-16 campaign was a career year, and he’ll be lucky to hit 50 points this season.
By taking some time to analyze the upcoming NHL schedule, poolies can gain a significant and measurable edge over their opponents. Now let’s identify some teams that will hurt fantasy owners in the coming week or so.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Winnipeg – It’s all about volume with this team. In the span of 11 days between Sunday, Oct. 23 and Thursday, Nov 3, the Jets take to the ice seven times. The matchups could be a bit easier, given that they face off twice against Dallas and Washington during that time period. That being said, fantasy-relevant Winnipeg players should be able to perform admirably.
Philadelphia – Five of this team’s next seven games are at home. Even better, the Flyers play a whopping eight times in 12 days between Saturday, Oct. 22 and Thursday, Nov. 3. It also doesn’t hurt that Philly will take host Carolina twice, Buffalo once and Arizona once during that stretch.
Montreal – Don’t shy away from the Habs this week and next. They play five times between Saturday, Oct. 22 and Saturday, Oct. 29. Again, it’s all about volume.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
Colorado – The Avs will conclude a four-game road trip on Saturday, Oct. 22 against the host Florida Panthers, and then they will enjoy five consecutive days off before taking to the ice again on Friday, Oct. 28 against the visiting Winnipeg Jets. That sort of short-term scheduling isn’t going to cut it for most fantasy owners.
Vancouver – A few tough matchups are in store for the Canucks in the coming days. The team will take on Los Angeles, Anaheim and Washington — three squads that always prove tough for opponents. Simply stated, many other teams will find success easier than Vancouver will over the course of the next few days.
New Jersey – Sure, the Devils will play their next four games at home. However, it should be noted that three of those four tilts will be against opponents that made the playoffs a year ago (Minnesota, Chicago and Tampa Bay). That spells trouble for this offensively-challenged squad.
Friday, October 21 to Thursday, October 27 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia 4.38 – four games – three at home |
Montreal 4.10 – four games – BOS, PHI, NYI and TBL |
Detroit 3.95 – four games – three at home |
Minnesota 3.90 – four games – NJD, NYI, BOS and BUF |
New York Islanders 3.85 – four games – three at home |
Steer Clear |
Colorado 0.86 – one game – FLA on road |
Edmonton 1.89 – two games – WPG and WAS |
Buffalo 1.89 – two games – PHI and MIN |
Carolina 1.95 – two games – both on road |
Washington 2.05 – two games – NYR and EDM |
Saturday, October 22 to Friday, October 28 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia 4.38 – four games – three at home |
Winnipeg 4.35 – four games – EDM, DALx2 and COL |
Anaheim 4.26 – four games – three at home |
New York Rangers 4.17 – four games – WAS, ARI, BOS and CAR |
Montreal 4.10 – four games – BOS, PHI, NYI and TBL |
Steer Clear |
Buffalo 1.89 – two games – PHI and MIN |
Colorado 2.01 – two games – FLA and WPG |
Washington 2.05 – two games – NYR and EDM |
Nashville 2.46 – three games – two on road |
New York Islanders 2.59 – three games – MIN, MTL and PIT
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Sunday, October 23 to Saturday, October 29 |
Best Bets |
Winnipeg 4.35 – four games – EDM, DALx2 and COL |
Anaheim 4.26 – four games – three at home |
Montreal 4.26 – four games – three at home |
Minnesota 4.15 – four games – NYI, BOS, BUF and DAL |
Philadelphia 4.12 – four games – three at home |
Steer Clear |
Carolina 2.00 – two games – DET and NYR |
Washington 2.14 – two games – both on road |
Washington 2.14 – two games – both on road |
Ottawa 2.19 – two games – both on road |
Colorado 2.30 – two games – WPG and ARI |
Monday, October 24 to Sunday, October 30 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia 5.16 – five games – three at home |
Winnipeg 4.40 – four games – DALx2, COL and BUF |
Montreal 4.26 – four games – three at home |
Detroit 4.06 – four games – three at home |
Buffalo 3.88 – four games – PHI, MIN, FLA and WPG |
Steer Clear |
Nashville 2.47 – three games – all on road |
Colorado – 2.30 – two games – WPG and ARI |
Boston 2.79 – three games – two on road |
Columbus 2.47 – three games – all on road |
New York Islanders 2.86 – three games – MTL, PIT and TOR |
Tuesday, October 25 to Monday, October 31 |
Best Bets |
Winnipeg 4.40 – four games – DALx2, COL and BUF |
Detroit 4.06 – four games – three at home |
Buffalo 3.88 – four games – PHI, MIN, FLA and WPG |
Philadelphia 4.35 – four games – three at home |
Florida 3.85 – four games – PIT, TOR, BUF and DET |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 1.74 – two games – NJD and LAK |
Colorado 2.30 – two games – WPG and ARI |
Columbus 2.49 – three games – all on road |
Nashville 2.47 – three games – all on road |
Boston 2.79 – three games – two on road |
Wednesday, October 26 to Tuesday, November 1 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton 4.23 – four games – WAS, VAN, OTT and TOR |
Washington 4.23 – four games – EDM, VAN, CGY and WPG |
Winnipeg 4.20 – four games – three at home |
New York Rangers 4.14 – four games – three at home |
Florida 4.14 – four games – TOR, BUF, DET and BOS |
Steer Clear |
Vancouver 1.94 – two games – EDM and WAS |
New Jersey 2.00 – two games – CHI and TBL |
Pittsburgh 2.05 – two games – NYI and PHI |
Boston 2.76 – three games – all on road |
St. Louis 2.84 – three games – DET, LAK and NYR |
Thursday, October 27 to Wednesday, November 2 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia 4.25 – four games – three at home |
Winnipeg 4.20 – four games – three at home |
Florida 4.14 – four games – TOR, BUF, DET and BOS |
Detroit 3.90 – four games – STL, BOS, FLA and PHI |
Toronto 3.81 – four games – FLA, MTL, NYI and EDM |
Steer Clear |
Boston 1.81 – two games – both on road |
New Jersey 2.00 – two games – CHI and TBL |
Nashville 2.71 – three games – all on road |
Vancouver 2.75 – three games – EDM, WAS and MTL |
Anaheim 2.81 – three games – CBJ, LAK and PIT |
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Just added Couturier – let’s see what happens! Lucky enough to already have Ellers. ?