Top 10 Big-Name Players to Cut Bait On
Tom Collins
2016-11-21
The Top 10 players your fantasy squad should cut bait on
One of the more popular type of columns that are written has to do with who you should pick up in your league. But rarely do we look at the other side of it: Who should you drop?
Some of the toughest decisions is deciding when you’ve had enough of a certain player. Sure, it’s easy to say that you should drop Matt Beleskey or Anton Slepyshev. But those are common sense. What happens when you have guys that are owned in the majority of pools, or a player with a proven track record? Those decisions are tougher.
Below you’ll find 10 players that you should be willing to drop now. It’s possible their season turns around, but it’s not worth waiting months to find out if you can get better production from another player. Keep in mind that I am focussing on one-year pools for this column, and not keeper pools. Some of these guys are still worthy of keeper spots. But in a one-year pool, there’s no need to hold on to them.
On to the list:
10. Dougie Hamilton
I really thought Hamilton could be a 50-point defenseman with the way he finished 2015-16 when he had 17 points in his last 21 games. But it’s starting to look like that was more of an aberration. Combining the rest of last season and this year, he has 35 points in 82 games. And that includes his three points from last night. Hamilton had zero points in his previous 10 games and now has a total of nine on the season. He's still very tradeable, so explore that option rather than go directly to 'drop' mode.
9. Jake Muzzin
This choice is for points-only pools. Muzzin owners were very optimistic going into this year after back-to-back 40-point seasons. But like most of the Kings, Muzzin has been a great disappointment. He’s on pace for just 12 points. He still has some value depending on your league settings. He’s on pace for 201 shots, 180 hits and 139 blocked shots. But he’s no longer playing regularly with Drew Doughty at even strength or on the power play.
I practice what I preach. I dropped Halak last week in my Yahoo pool — we count wins, losses, goals against, saves and shutouts — and picked up Peter Budaj instead. Halak has just been too awful this year to worry about starting. Granted the whole Islanders team has been horrible. But Halak is supposed to stop pucks. He has a 3.08 GAA, a .905 save percentage and plenty of trade rumours.
He’s only 23 years old, but we should realize by now that RNH will never live up to the billing of a #1 pick. This year he’s on pace for 35 points. His ice time is down about 1:22 a game from a year ago. He’s not used on the top power play and his most frequent line mates are Zack Kassian and Benoit Pouliot.
6. Evander Kane
Kane’s poor points total has always been acceptable because he’s been so good in other peripherals. But not this year. He’s on pace for just 10 points and a minus-61, 101 PIM, 132 shots and 162 hits. This is his worst per-game for all those stats. Maybe his numbers improve once guys like Jack Eichel and Ryan O’Reilly are fully healthy. But you never want to rely on a player who needs other players to produce.
5. Bobby Ryan
Ryan was droppable before he broke his finger last Thursday night. He simply isn’t worth the headaches in most leagues. He’s on pace for 157 shots, 14 goals, 14 assists and 10 power play points. He’s had no chemistry with Derick Brassard, who was brought in specifically to play with Ryan. And now he’s injured. It’s even worse in cap leagues where his $7.25-million cap hit is one of the worst.
There were a lot of GMs out there who desperately believed that Eriksson could repeat his numbers from last season. But the numbers could never back that up. Now Eriksson is on pace for just 13 goals, 30 points, a minus-30, nine power play points and a minus-30. There are so many better options out there. You would get the same value out of Michael Ferland, but Ferland would help you with hits. Also worth noting is that Eriksson played with Markus Granlund and Michael Chaput for most of the game on Saturday, and he also played on the second power play unit, away from the Sedin twins.
Despite being a Montreal fan, I’ve never been a huge fan of Pleks. He has a tendency to take bad angle shots, needs great-to-elite linemates to pad his point totals and isn’t a great faceoff guy. He also plays centre, so there are plenty of better options out there. This year Plekanec has just one goal and five points in 19 games despite playing mostly with Alexander Radulov, Max Pacioretty and Brendan Gallagher. He’s also been taken off the power play, having no power play time in Saturday night’s game against the Leafs and has only played two minutes with the man advantage in the last five games combined.
I don’t know what you want out of a number one goalie, but Brian Elliott certainly isn’t it. He’s won just three of 11 games this year, has a 3.36 GAA and a 0.882 save percentage. He’s only have four quality starts this year. And he hasn’t played in the four three games as Chad Johnson is showing to be a more capable goalie. Look for Johnson to steal more starts from here on in. It doesn’t look good for Elliott.
It’s a little surprising that Fleury is still owned in 85 per cent of Yahoo leagues. That’s a lot of poolies holding on to a backup goalie. This is where you need to remember that this column isn’t for keeper leagues. Fleury will probably be a number one goalie next year somewhere, either in Las Vegas or Dallas. But for this year, he’s a backup. He’s started just three of the last 10 games and two of those starts were when the Pens played back-to-back. He’s not worth keeping in one-year leagues.
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Derick brassard was not brought in to specifically play with Ryan, he was brought in because he was a left hand shot and an upgrade on zibanejad
Should probably hold onto them both then, because this changes everything.
Maybe he was brought in for experience. But to quote The Ottawa Sun (http://www.ottawasun.com/2016/09/23/ottawa-senators-winger-bobby-ryan-draws-chuckles-on-twitter-with-world-cup-line):
“In his three seasons as a Senator, Ryan has not played regularly with a left-handed shooting centre. GM Pierre Dorion answered a team need when he acquired Brassard for Mika Zibanejad, and Ryan should benefit.”
Regardless, it doesn’t change the fact that Ryan should be dropped.
I don’t know why you would drop Ryan. He’s going to end up with his usual 56 points. He’ll be hot in no one
Assuming he doesn’t play any games this week, comes back against Buffalo next week and is healthy the rest of the season, Ryan would have to get 50 points in 60 games (0.83 points per game). He hasn’t had 0.83 points per game in a full season since 2010-11.
An upgrade over according to whom?
I for one did not like the deal at all. A cheaper, younger, improving center for an older, plateaued center made no sense.
Hopefully Mika recovers quickly and doesn’t miss a beat when he returns.
It made a lot of sense. The sens were looking for a left hand centre with more skill and brassard is actually cheaper salary wise. Brassard is a better offensive player and better playmaker. Zibanejad had a good start point wise but has not been playing well Over the last three weeks and he plays on the best goal scoring team in the league.
Mika was going to regress heavily the way he was playing anyway. Now a player like him who always has fitness issues is going to be out two months? Good luck with that
I have a tough choice to make when Cammalleri returns.
I’m guessing Ladd isn’t here because that would be stating the obvious, or because all rational people are assumed to have cut bait previously?
Yeah. The writing was on the wall going into this season. I figure most would have dropped him after the failed “playing regularly with Tavares” move failed.
I don’t think fluery is droppable unless it’s a super shallow league. Just because he’s seeing backup starts now doesn’t mean Muarry won’t falter. The sample size for his above average performances isn’t that big. He could easily hit a rut and the those roles could be flipped. Right now his EVSV% is at an unsustainable level. Also what are you going to grab off the waiver wire to replace him? Ward? Howard? That’s the best case scenario and their both due to regress if you look at their numbers.
You could hold on to any backup on the premise that the starter might falter. You could replace Fleury with any backup in the league (ie- Mike Condon) and get the same results.
Fleury got the last start at Buffalo (2nd of a back to back) and is getting tonight’s start against the Rangers. Tonight’s game is not part of a back-to-back, and Murray is not injured. I respectfully submit that I think it is premature to call this goalie situation settled in Murray’s favor so soon.
Interesting. Fleury’s fourth start in 11 games. Still, Fleury hasn’t played well this year, and at absolute best is at a 50-50 split. Still not worth it (and I own Fleury in several keeper pools, so it would be better for me if Fleury was the regular starter).
Thanks for the response. I give your opinion more weight than my own, since you probably have forgotten more about fantasy hockey than I’ve learned. Still, I can’t help wondering if you are underrating Fleury. I view him and Murray’s situation as very similar to Bishop/Vasi’s situation. At worst, one of the two will get 30 starts for a team that wins a lot of games, and the 50/30 split could potentially go either way. Do you think that Vasi is worth holding in a one year league, or do you think that both he and Fleury belong on the wire?
Probably not on the knowledge thing. I get some stuff right, some wrong. I’ve been a big Fleury supporter in fantasy for a long time. I’ve always believed he was underrated. But to get three starts in 10 games when healthy doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence.
As for Vas, depends on the league settings. But I wouldn’t have Vas on my squad unless I need to pick him up for a spot start. One thing to remember with Vas is to look at his competition. He’s played seven games. His opponents have been: New Jersey, Ottawa, New Jersey, Boston, Islanders, Islanders and Philly. Philly is the only team not in the bottom-10 in league goals for per game (and to be fair, Philly is fourth overall and Vas did shut them out).
in my league, the “best” goalie even available is chad johnson calgarys backup. Fluery is and will be rostered in my league all season.
I’m carrying Kuznetsov (traded Talbot for him a few weeks in) and Ladd. I’m more inclined to drop Ladd, but I hate dropping anyone I drafted. I’m still waiting for both these guys to have a few good games so I can trade them.
I’d drop Ladd easily. Kuz could go on a crazy point streak. Ladd won’t.
How do you know Ladd won;t go on a point streak? That’s pretty baseless
Technically speaking, anyone can go on a point streak. Dale Weise did it last year in the first 10-15 games of the season for the Habs. But there are plenty of reasons against Ladd. He’s on the wrong side of 30. He had just 46 points last year. He’s only broken 55 points twice in his career. He’s getting less and less ice time (just 13:27 last game, and only higher than 16 minutes four times in last 10 games). He’s not on the top power play unit. He’s not shooting the puck as much as previous seasons. He’s shown no chemistry with Tavares. Etc etc etc.
Based on these reasons, I would say Ladd won’t go on a point streak. So I wouldn’t say that’s pretty baseless.
I recently dropped Elliot for Fleury for my third goalie spot, this makes me feel so much regret T.T
Dropping Elliott wasn’t a bad move. And if it’s a keeper league, I like Fleury a lot for next year. But in a one-year league, you dropped a guy who lost his starting job for another guy who lost his starting job.
Yeah one year. So guess it’s kind of a lateral move then? I can sleep better knowing I didn’t royally mess up :p
Yeah, lateral move. But I’d rather Fleury than Elliott anyways. Better chance of the Pens winning than Calgary on any given night.
However, if there are no injuries, I think Elliott has a better shot of getting back his number one position than Fleury does.
Great piece.
Only person I disagree with is Hamilton… he has been paired up with Giordano once again in the last few games and he’s also back on the PP with Mark. I wouldn’t be surprised if he goes on a little run now. I would wait another 5 games until discarding Hamilton.
I never saw much of the game last night, but the stats say he had just 45 seconds of power play (only 19 per cent of the power play time). Was there a reason behind it?
I get worried with Hamilton is because it really took Wideman getting suspended last year for Hamilton to succeed. What are the odds Wideman bodychecks another official?
I traded Hamilton the day before his 3-point game last night for Krug. IIIII’m not sure what to feel right now about either player at the moment.
I think a good piece of advice is about league size. if you can drop elliot, halak or anyone else for Fleury, Budaj or even Mike Smith then go for it! But in lots of deep leagues (18team or starting 4C, 4, RW, 4 LW, etc) your best available goalie might be a guy like anders nilsson or eddie lack. In that case you really should hold on to these guys, cutting bait gets you nowhere and better days are coming.
That goes without saying. Also a factor is whether you set the lineups weekly or daily. In daily, you can get away with holding on to these goalies since you can stream them in spot starts. In weekly leagues though, you couldn’t really roster them as they might not play any games.
In my pool I have the option to drop Evander Kane and pick up Nazem Kadri from free agency. It’s rotisserie scoring with goals, assists, +/-, PIM, hits, and blocks as the scoring a categories. Does anyone think this is a good move.
It depends on what you need more of (ie- are you lacking at hits more than plus-minus?) But I would post it on the forums and try to get a consensus.
Kadri’s been one of my top producers so far (I’m currently 1st in a 16-team, 23-man keeper league w/ similar scoring). Fuck Kane and his injury history! Also, I’m currently performing in a show with one of Kadri’s uncles soooo I’m somewhat biased there ;)
I also have Chris Kunitz and was able to put him on injured reserve. I picked up Kadri for his spot. I’ve had two good games out of Kadri. I’m in second place in my pool and I feel Evander Kane has more value than other players on this list. He’s good for shots and hits. If he got more goals (his shooting percentage is only something like 8% I think) he would be a gem. I’m trying to trade him rather than just drop him for nothing.
I’ve been offered a trade in my keeper league Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Me) for Sean Monahan. Thoughts?
Also, have Varly and Elliott just became available… both have been pretty awful this season, which would be the better 3rd goalie?
How many keepers? What does your team look like? Do you need defense or forwards? What are the scoring categories? Etc etc.
I would post the questions on the forum and try to get a consensus.
Thanks will post all of the relevant details on the forum. I have Stamkos… which is why I’m in need of a center. I’m pretty stocked at wing. Center’s are now my weak category. D is locked up w/ OEL, Weber, Markov, Fowler, Severson, and Vlasic. Larsson is obvi my #1 keeper D-man… Although N. Zeitsev is on the wire and he’s currently looking like a young Duncan Keith. (I like comparing the Leafs to the 2007-09 Hawks).
Hamilton is having a poor start, no question, and his PP time has been bouncing around all year. But IMHO I don’t think he is a player to cut bait on. If you can trade him for a Krug type or better player it might be in your best interest, but otherwise, I would hold tight. Even with his poor start he is almost on a 40 point pace, he is shooting over 2.5 shots a game and putting up 2.5 hits and blocks a game and he is considerably outscoring all D men on his team (Giordano, Brodie, etc.). Calgary’s PP is last in the league right now and has no place to go but up, even if just slightly. Just a few thoughts for Hamilton owners to consider.
I wouldn’t say he is considerably outscoring all dmen on his team. He has nine points, Gio has six and Wideman has five. Before last night’s game, he was neck in neck with these guys.
Good points on the rest.
i think you can add mark stone from the sens also
The problem with Stone is that he goes on really hot stretches for 30 to 40 games. I wouldn’t recommend dropping him unless there was a great option on the waiver wire and Stone is your worst player.
It’s hard to know what to do, you say cut bait on Nugent-Hopkins, Dobber just yesterday, in an entertaining debate, advises us not to give up on ‘star’ players before they hit their prime. I’m not yawning, I’m freaking out! :-)
Remember, this is for one-year pools, not keepers. I’d hold on to RNH in a keeper pool.
I obviously didn’t read the whole article….. Sry
No worries.