Geek of the Week: Aaron Ekblad

Scott Maran

2016-12-11

You shouldn't be disappointed about Aaron Ekblad in multicategory leagues, in spite of his low point total.

The Florida Panthers have been a very perplexing team so far this season, and no player better exemplifies this than Aaron Ekblad. Just coming off a freshly signed eight-year, $60 million contract extension, Ekblad was expected to help lead the team and carry the defense as the team’s cornerstone player. However, many fantasy owners have been frustrated by his relative lack of scoring. But despite his subpar point totals so far this year, Ekblad is having a good start for fantasy owners and will only get better as the season progresses.

Aaron Ekblad has always been a supremely talented player and was on people’s radar even before he made the NHL. As one of five players and the first defenseman to be granted Exceptional Player Status in the OHL, Ekblad was one of the most talented prospects in juniors. Right after he was drafted first overall by the Florida Panthers in the 2014 NHL draft, Ekblad immediately joined the team and had a profound impact. Scoring 12 goals and 27 assists while logging over 21 minutes of ice time, Ekblad impressed and managed to even win the Calder Trophy, the award given to the NHL’s best rookie. While he saw a slight dip in points in his sophomore year, Ekblad continued to grow into a strong first-pairing defenseman.

However, in his third season as an NHL player, Ekblad has gotten off to a bit of a rocky start point-wise. With only eight points in his first 28 games, fantasy poolies expect more from one of their top defensemen. Drafted on average 77th overall in Fantrax leagues and in the top 20 defensemen in Yahoo leagues, eight measly points has caused plenty of frustration amongst those that drafted the Panthers’ defenseman in hopes of another 40-point season. However, despite the low point totals, Ekblad has been contributing in many other ways.

Using our Fantasy Hockey Geek Tool, we can see what sort of value Ekblad has been providing in fantasy leagues. For our sample league, we’ll being using an average 12-team H2H Yahoo league measuring G, A, PPP, SOG, Hits, W, SV%, GAA, and SO with this season’s stats.
 

 

Rank

FHG Value

G

A

SOG

PPP

Hits

Brad Marchand

37

39

7

17

71

5

19

Corey Perry

38

38

5

16

82

8

28

Aaron Ekblad

39

38

6

2

90

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3

54


Even though Ekblad’s eight total points doesn’t even crack the top 50 in terms of defensive scoring, he still manages to provide good value in an average Yahoo Fantasy League. He may not be racking up the assists but his goal totals are great, good for the sixth most goals by a defenseman. Not to mention Ekblad gets a pretty good amount of hits, the 26th most amongst all defenseman and 68th out of all skaters.

However, what’s most impressive are Ekblad’s shot totals, which in part explains his high goal totals. Taking a whopping 90 shots through 28 games, Ekblad has the eighth-most shots in the league and the second most shots by a defenseman, trailing only Brent Burns. Next to elite shooters like Tyler Seguin and Joe Pavelski, Ekblad has significantly upped his shot total this year and it has provided a great boast for those who count shots in their fantasy leagues. His plus/minus of minus-12 is a bit brutal (fifth worst out of all defenseman), but he makes up for it with the 13th most penalty minutes by a defender.

And to think, Ekblad is providing all of this value with such terrible assist totals. While over his first two seasons he averaged around 24 assists a year, currently he is only on track to record six by the end of the year. If he had his average amount of assists (which would be around seven to put him on pace for 24 by the end of the year), Ekblad would have eight assists instead of two. Through the What If tool, we can see what Ekblad’s value would be if he was scoring assists at an average rate.
 

 

Rank

FHG

G

A

SOG

PPP

Hits

Ekblad

39

36.1

6

2

90

3

54

Ekblad- What If

18

55

6

8

90

3

54


If Ekblad was scoring assists at just his career average, his Fantasy Hockey Geek value would increase by almost 20 points and he would be ranked as the 18th-most valuable skater. This bodes well for Ekblad’s long-term potential as he is bound to break out of this slump and see his value increase.

Even though his assist totals leave a lot to be desired, Ekblad is actually having a really good start for poolies. Assists are just one category and Ekblad is doing excellent in all the other ones. And when the assists do eventually start coming, watch out.

To identify more players with great value in your specific league settings, check out Fantasy Hockey Geek to generate custom rankings tailored for you. With the Season Toolkit, you can use our advanced tools to manage to the top and take down the title. Head to the Dobber Sports Shop and pick it up today!

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