Buy, sell, or hold? Your stock report on the defensemen of the Eastern Conference.

With about one third of the NHL season complete we are starting to see a clearer picture of how things will ultimately play out. Still, there remain plenty of anomalies throughout the league that require further analysis. Specifically, some players are capable of producing more than their current rate which puts them in “buy low” territory while others are likely playing above their means putting them in “sell high” territory.

Many factors help determine a player’s buy/sell status. Various percentages and advanced stats help paint a more accurate picture of the situation. Also, historical production, ice time and opportunity also play a role. Today we will look at defensemen for the final eight teams in the Eastern Conference with the focus put primarily on points-only leagues.

New York Islanders	GP	TOI	%PP	G	A	Pts	PPP	SHT/G	SH%	Status
NICK LEDDY	26	22:59	65.2	4	8	12	5	2.0	7.7	HOLD
JOHNNY BOYCHUK	26	20:10	32.4	4	5	9	1	2.3	6.7	HOLD
DENNIS SEIDENBERG	20	19:34	4.3	4	5	9	0	1.1	18.2	SELL
TRAVIS HAMONIC	24	20:32	17.6	2	6	8	1	1.4	6.0	HOLD
CALVIN DE HAAN	27	18:27	4.9	1	6	7	0	1.6	2.3	WAIVE
THOMAS HICKEY	27	18:38	17.3	2	4	6	1	1.3	5.7	WAIVE
SCOTT MAYFIELD	3	11:35	0.8	1	2	3	0	0.7	47.6	WAIVE
ADAM PELECH	9	15:26	0.8	1	2	3	0	1.1	10.1	WAIVE
RYAN PULOCK	1	3:57	19.1	0	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	BUY

Dennis Seidenberg

Seidenberg is off to a great start with an unexpected nine points through 20 games. There are many red flags here leaning towards him falling off the map soon. For starters, he is not much of a shot generator with just 22 to date and his shooting percentage (18.2 percent) is unsustainable. Not to mention he has not hit 20 points since 2011-12. He has been useful especially in multi-cat leagues but the sell-high window is closing fast. In fact, it may have closed already.

Ryan Pulock

Pulock was a candidate to be one of the top rookies this year. However, an injury and some stints in the minors have limited him to just one game in New York. Still, with the Islanders lacking a dangerous second offensive threat up front there is still hope for a resurgence. This is a reach in shallow leagues but in deeper setups he is worth keeping on the radar. Expect modest production if he plays.

New York Rangers	GP	TOI	%PP	G	A	Pts	PPP	SHT/G	SH%	Status
RYAN MCDONAGH	30	24:02	65.4	1	16	17	6	1.7	2.0	HOLD
BRADY SKJEI	30	16:43	25.7	1	13	14	3	1.2	2.8	SELL
NICK HOLDEN	30	19:46	9.7	4	10	14	2	0.7	19.0	SELL
KEVIN KLEIN	26	17:28	1.7	0	8	8	1	0.8	0.0	WAIVE
DANIEL GIRARDI	26	18:47	1.6	3	4	7	0	1.0	11.5	WAIVE
MARC STAAL	30	19:34	1.1	3	3	6	0	1.1	9.1	WAIVE
ADAM CLENDENING	8	14:22	44.2	0	3	3	1	0.5	0.0	BUY

Brady Skjei

Skjei has been a great story to follow as the 22-year-old surprised many with 14 points in his first 30 games. While there is good reason to think he will have a productive career, he is not getting enough ice time in any situation to keep this rate up. His current output along with his status as a former first-round pick should make him appealing on the trade market. Sell him for a more proven commodity.

Nick Holden

Like Skjei, Holden is off to a great start that is likely unsustainable and a product of the Rangers’ offensive outburst this year. He has not been much of a factor on the power play. Meanwhile, though he has had good stretches on offense at times he has historically been a mediocre point producer. Not to mention, he has just 22 shots on goal to date making it very unlikely his current goal output will continue.

Adam Clendening

Clendening is a real wild card. He has three points in his last three outings but each of them has been separated by many stints in the press box. When he plays he sees plenty of time on the power play and could be one to watch down the stretch. All it takes is one injury and Clendening might become a regular in the lineup. In that case he would likely become a good depth scorer in most leagues.

Ottawa	GP	TOI	%PP	G	A	Pts	PPP	SHT/G	SH%	Status
ERIK KARLSSON	29	27:01	68.8	7	20	27	9	2.4	10.1	HOLD
DION PHANEUF	29	22:55	48.8	3	7	10	4	2.4	4.3	BUY
CHRIS WIDEMAN	24	13:18	28.6	1	6	7	1	1.4	3.0	WAIVE
MARC METHOT	25	20:14	1.8	0	3	3	0	1.5	0.0	WAIVE
CODY CECI	29	23:14	21.3	0	2	2	0	1.8	0.0	BUY
MARK BOROWIECKI	28	13:42	0.7	0	1	1	0	0.4	0.0	WAIVE
ANDREAS ENGLUND	4	9:57	0.3	0	0	0	0	0.3	0.0	WAIVE
FREDRIK CLAESSON	7	11:08	2.8	0	0	0	0	0.3	0.0	WAIVE

Dion Phaneuf

As it stands, Phaneuf is on pace for 29 points which short of his yearly points-per-game figures from recent years. However, there are factors hinting this year might be a bit different. He already has 10 points despite the Sens underwhelming offensively and due for an uptick. He is also sharing the ice with Karlsson often which will help with his production moving forward. Do not be surprised if he finishes around 35 points which makes him a solid depth offensive defenseman in most leagues.

Cody Ceci

At this point Ceci is a long shot to bounce back to a level that makes him fantasy-relevant. However, he should stay on your radar due to his upside as injuries could change his role down the stretch. His ice time is at a career-best 23 minutes per game so his importance to the team is not in question. However, until his power play minutes increase it will be difficult for Ceci to produce impressive numbers.

Philadelphia	GP	TOI	%PP	G	A	Pts	PPP	SHT/G	SH%	Status
MARK STREIT	31	19:53	38.2	5	11	16	6	1.8	9.0	HOLD
SHAYNE GOSTISBEHERE	29	20:30	66.1	4	12	16	9	2.3	6.0	BUY
IVAN PROVOROV	31	20:38	29.3	3	11	14	2	1.7	5.7	HOLD
BRANDON MANNING	27	18:19	2	3	6	9	0	1.3	8.5	WAIVE
ANDREW MACDONALD	23	19:22	2.6	1	8	9	0	0.6	7.2	WAIVE
MICHAEL DEL ZOTTO	14	18:46	5.2	3	5	8	0	1.9	11.3	SELL
RADKO GUDAS	22	19:58	1.2	1	7	8	1	1.7	2.7	WAIVE
NICK SCHULTZ	9	16:47	0.1	0	3	3	0 📢 advertisement:	1.0	0.0	WAIVE

Shayne Gostisbehere

While last year’s incredible rookie campaign was obviously going to be difficult to replicate in year two, there is certainly room for improvement from his current numbers mainly due to a low on-ice five-on-five shooting percentage. Prior to his recent injury he had five points in six games so the buy-low window is small if not closed already. Regardless, a player of this caliber is worth a shot if you think you can land him in a trade.

Michael Del Zotto

Del Zotto has been a frustrating fantasy defenseman over the years with alternating good and bad years at the offensive end. So far he is hot out of the gate with eight points in 14 games but his average ice time is down under 19 minutes, his lowest since 2013-14, and his role on the power play is almost non-existent. Simply put, the conditions are not there for Del Zotto to keep it up and he is also an occasional healthy scratch. If someone in your league believes in him sell him for whatever you can get.

Pittsburgh	GP	TOI	%PP	G	A	Pts	PPP	SHT/G	SH%	Status
KRISTOPHER LETANG	24	24:57	74.2	2	16	18	8	3.1	2.7	HOLD
JUSTIN SCHULTZ	29	16:22	33	3	10	13	2	1.8	5.7	SELL
IAN COLE	29	17:19	1.2	2	9	11	0	1.1	6.3	WAIVE
TREVOR DALEY	29	20:11	29.7	2	7	9	3	1.5	4.6	BUY
BRIAN DUMOULIN	28	18:31	4.8	0	5	5	0	1.4	0.0	WAIVE
OLLI MAATTA	29	17:40	2.7	0	1	1	0	1.2	0.0	WAIVE
STEVE OLEKSY	2	5:33	0	0	1	1	0	0.5	0.0	WAIVE
DAVID WARSOFSKY	4	15:19	20.5	0	0	0	0	1.5	0.0	WAIVE
DERRICK POULIOT	1	12:29	17.3	0	0	0	0	1.0	0.0	WAIVE

Justin Schultz

Schultz has bounced back in a big way in his first full year with the Penguins after a tough end to his time in Edmonton. However, his current output is not likely to be sustained especially after his recent stretch of eight points in five games. He is getting third-pairing minutes and is playing a secondary role on the power play. He will be a productive defenseman moving forward but do not expect him to continue at his current 37-point pace. Try to move Schultz for an underachieving proven commodity. This is a great time to test a rival owner’s patience.

Trevor Daley

Daley is not a strong buy-low candidate as his offensive upside is limited and he has been underwhelming most of his career. However, he played extremely well after arriving in Pittsburgh last year, producing at a 34-point pace. This year he is on pace to hit 25. Given the fact he logs more than 20 minutes per game and sees time on the power play there is room on a team like the Penguins for Daley to be more productive.

Tampa Bay	GP	TOI	%PP	G	A	Pts	PPP	SHT/G	SH%	Status
VICTOR HEDMAN	29	24:50	49.1	5	14	19	8	1.9	9.1	HOLD
ANTON STRALMAN	20	22:39	39	1	7	8	5	1.4	3.6	HOLD
NIKITA NESTEROV	21	16:59	26.4	2	3	5	1	1.2	7.9	BUY
JASON GARRISON	27	18:19	4.8	1	3	4	0	1.3	2.8	WAIVE
BRAYDON COBURN	29	16:14	2.2	0	4	4	0	1.3	0.0	WAIVE
SLATER KOEKKOEK	17	13:19	2.6	0	4	4	0	1.0	0.0	WAIVE
ANDREJ SUSTR	29	17:47	1.8	0	4	4	0	1.5	0.0	WAIVE
LUKE WITKOWSKI	8	9:44	2.2	0	1	1	0	0.8	0.0	WAIVE

Nikita Nesterov

Nesterov is a long shot to deliver anything of significance this year but he is trending in the right direction. His role is slowly expanding and he has done a better job staying in the lineup on a consistent basis. His points-per-game rate currently has him on a 20-point pace and a small uptick would put him on the map in deeper leagues. After all, despite the loss of Steven Stamkos the Lightning still have an immensely talented roster that will put up plenty of goals down the stretch.

Toronto	GP	TOI	%PP	G	A	Pts	PPP	SHT/G	SH%	Status
MORGAN RIELLY	27	22:49	30.7	1	14	15	3	2.2	1.7	BUY
JAKE GARDINER	27	20:14	49.2	5	6	11	3	1.7	10.9	HOLD
NIKITA ZAITSEV	27	22:07	39.1	0	10	10	4	1.4	0.0	SELL
MATT HUNWICK	19	17:56	1.4	0	6	6	0	0.9	0.0	WAIVE
MARTIN MARINCIN	16	18:03	0.9	1	4	5	0	0.9	6.9	WAIVE
CONNOR CARRICK	23	17:11	24.2	1	2	3	0	1.6	2.7	WAIVE
ROMAN POLAK	22	17:18	0.1	1	1	2	0	0.7	6.5	WAIVE

Morgan Rielly

It is amazing Rielly has been able to amass 15 points through 27 games despite not seeing much time on the power play on many nights. Lately the tide has turned in that regard as Rielly is not constantly on the top power-play unit. This makes him far more likely to maintain his current production or even see an increase down the stretch. The possibility of 50 points by season’s end is real.

Nikita Zaitsev

As Rielly’s offensive role has expanded, Zaitsev’s presence on the man advantage has diminished substantially. His overall ice time is still very good but without prime power-play opportunities his upside is limited. After all, that is where four of his 10 points have come. Currently he is on a 30-point pace but unless his recent utilization changes maintaining this rate will be very difficult.

Washington	GP	TOI	%PP	G	A	Pts	PPP	SHT/G	SH%	Status
JOHN CARLSON	27	23:30	61.2	1	11	12	6	2.4	1.5	BUY
DMITRY ORLOV	27	18:59	27.4	1	9	10	2	1.6	2.3	HOLD
MATT NISKANEN	26	22:01	33.6	0	10	10	1	1.9	0.0	HOLD
NATE SCHMIDT	23	15:06	1.1	0	6	6	0	1.1	0.0	WAIVE
BROOKS ORPIK	27	17:15	0.4	0	6	6	0	1.0	0.0	WAIVE
KARL ALZNER	27	20:16	1.4	2	2	4	0	1.1	6.7	WAIVE
TAYLOR CHORNEY	5	13:00	0	0	1	1	0	1.2	0.0	WAIVE

John Carlson

This one is pretty obvious as Carlson, the undisputed top defenseman in Washington, has grossly underwhelmed thus far. In particular, his goal-scoring has suffered greatly with a shooting percentage of just 1.5 percent after being over 6 percent in each of the last two years. Carlson’s season-end result might not jump out relative to expectations but should easily produce at a 50-point pace moving forward once puck luck starts going his way.

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4 Comments

Striker 2016-12-13 at 09:30Log in to Reply

I think you would be crazy to sell Skjei depending upon format of course. His point production on this team is sustainable. NYR when healthy scores in bunches. Skjei is now an NHL regular & if injuries hit his role will increase. I must admit I have a bias having drafted him late in both my fantasy leagues. after McDonaugh NYR has no better Dman for helping to drive offense. Skjei has a solid transitional game & see’s fairly consistent 2nd line PP time, the reason he’s putting these points. In my leagues, all points driven, the return wouldn’t come any where close to justify giving him up.

As for Clendening avoid at all costs. Clendening’s role is to collect his pay check; 600K, & play when absolutely necessary nothing more as all he brings is some PP abilities. He will only play due to short term injury, a veteran & or Skjei needing a night off. If a serious injury hits, Gilmour or Graves would be promoted or NYR would address in trade. Clendening is a cheap insurance policy that you can justify keeping in the press box night after night. You need not worry about stunting his development he has no future in the NHL. The perfect player to sit with his 600K cap hit.
RM 2016-12-13 at 09:50Log in to Reply

Where is the Eastern Defensemen Part 1? I want to see the Habs D look. I searched and can’t find it.
- Jeet 2016-12-13 at 10:14Log in to Reply
  
  Same. I couldn’t find it either.
  - Eric Daoust 2016-12-13 at 10:31Log in to Reply
    
    I was on vacation the past 3 Mondays so I didn’t get to it. I’m mirroring Wild West and this is where we’re at. I’ll try to find a spot for part 1 in the coming weeks.

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12	DET	vs	TOR
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