Ramblings: Clock ticking on Capuano, a multi-cat sleeper and more (Dec 19)
Dobber
2016-12-19
Ramblings: Clock ticking on Capuano, a multi-cat sleeper and more
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Jack Capuano. (insert booing here)
Last week I mused that he could possibly be gone if the Isles lose their next two games. I also thought that a loss was likely because they played Chicago and then they followed up against the hot Sabres team without getting any rest. Sure enough, the Isles lost those two games (though one was in OT). And then they lost – badly – on Sunday to the Senators. Icing on the cake. Even the most loyal and patient GM has to make a move now. So will he? If Garth Snow wants to cling to that 5% chance of getting into the postseason, then he needs to shake up the team with a new coach. So who would be the best replacement to make a quick impact? Bob Hartley, Marc Crawford, Mike Yeo, Dave Cameron, Kevin Dineen, Travis Green (former Islander), Gerard Gallant, Brent Thompson (Bridgeport’s coach), Doug Weight (current assistant) are the names I could come up with.
Now is the time to acquire John Tavares. His owners will be ready to move him on the cheap. They’re panicking and aren’t altogether certain that Capuano will be fired. But I am. How many more losses until there is a coaching change? One? Two? None? Yes, it’s a bit of a gamble because…what if Garth Snow keeps the coach no matter what happens? But my money is on him stopping the bleeding and when that happens, the scoring will take off. And one of Thomas Greiss or Jaroslav Halak will become instant studs.
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Anders Lee, who had one goal after 18 games, now leads the Islanders 13 games later with 10 goals.
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Bobby Ryan has points in four consecutive games. It looks as though he’s finally clicking with Kyle Turris and Ryan Dzingel – linemates that Guy Boucher has gone back to over and over again. This time it’s working…
#1 23.7% BRASSARD,DERICK – SMITH,ZACK – STONE,MARK
#2 19.5% DZINGEL,RYAN – RYAN,BOBBY – TURRIS,KYLE
#3 18.6% LAZAR,CURTIS – PAGEAU,JEAN-GABRIEL – PYATT,TOM
#4 16.1% BAILEY,CASEY – KELLY,CHRIS – NEIL,CHRISTOPHER
Zack Smith is back with Mark Stone and this time they have Derick Brassard on their line (instead of J-G Pageau) and that seems to be getting all three of them going. Smith has five points in two games, Stone has six in three, Brassard has points in each of the last two contests.
Andrew Hammond left the game in the first period after twisting his ankle. If the Sens have to recall a goalie, then I suspect Craig Anderson could come to the rescue. But the Hammond injury doesn’t sound overly serious because he was on the bench in the second period.
*
John Tortorella became the first US born coach to win 500 NHL games Sunday, putting an exclamation mark on what has already been a shocking and amazing season. Even if they go .500 the rest of the way, Columbus has exceeded all of our expectations (.500 going forward would mean 26-26-1, bringing them to 46-31-5 which is 97 points and still in the playoffs).
Columbus is also the only team to have not yet have played 30 games this season. Sunday was Game 29. Cam Atkinson has 31 points in those 29 games and is having a “fifth year breakout”. He’s 27 years old and yet another example that a player’s prime or peak is 27 or 28 and not 24.
Don’t overlook Sam Gagner – he has 21 points in his last 23 games. And 10 of those points have come off the power play. He’s still only getting about 14 minutes of ice time per game. That’s Torts getting the most out of his strengths. So I like Gagner for this season going forward, but cringe a little when it comes to future years if he signs with another team.
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The NHL has a roster freeze after tonight, which means no waivers or trades or loans until after December 27.
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Scott Darling is now 10-2-2 and 0.927 SV%. But Cory Crawford is an amazing goalie and his success has nothing to do with his team. Right?
Artemi Panarin has a five-game points streak and 11 points in that span. He’s up to 34 in 34 – a point-per-game! That shoots him up to a tie for third in NHL scoring… and ahead of Patrick Kane by two points. Of the five players who have at least 34 points, three of them are Russian.
Vinnie Hinostroza has four points in his last four games playing with Marian Hossa and Ryan Hartman. But if you’re looking for a depth guy in a multi-cat league, you want Hartman. The 22-year-old Hartman has 25 Hits, 20 SOG, five points and is plus-6 in his last eight games.
Trevor van Riemsdyk has three points in his last four games and is also seeing secondary PP time. A depth option for you (temporary) if you’re desperate for a rearguard.
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Man, as lucky as I’ve been with goaltending projections over the years (quite successful), I have been an absolute dog with defensemen projections. Remember that when I open my yapper about a young defenseman who is primed to break out.
Besides the Adam Larsson snafu, I tagged Marc-Edouard Vlasic wrong. The elements are there – he’s getting the PP time and he’s not getting the puck luck (according to the fancy stats). But the bottom line is that he has just seven points. I’ll own that. That’s on me. Sorry. I see the picture, I see the opportunity, I play the odds…but with defensemen it must be something I miss.
I wish I could explain Mikkel Boedker. But I can’t. What a dog! Just six points so far for the Sharks, not earning the right to see any top-six time, and he’s minus-7. In fact, the 27-year-old is minus-54 for his career.
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Sure enough, Calvin Pickard is getting start after start after start. Unfortunately, he’s also suffering loss after loss after loss. Great time to hit that slump – when the starting job is his for the taking.
The new Colorado coach does not like Carl Soderberg. At all. And it’s only getting worse. His ice time is down over two minutes per game versus last year and it’s down about 25% in the last 10 games versus the first 20 games. His PP time has dried up to virtually nothing, too. He’s paid a cap hit of $4.75 million for each of the next three seasons.
Tyson Barrie is taking a hefty run at TJ Brodie for the dubious shitty-plus/minus trophy (I think that’s the actual name for the official trophy). His minus-4 on Sunday puts him at minus-18 on the season. Brodie is minus-19.
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Patrik Laine doesn’t turn 19 until late April. The NHL record for most goals by an 18-year-old is 45 (Dale Hawerchuk – also on the Winnipeg Jets). He needs 28 goals in the next 48 games to set a new record. Laine had three points on Sunday and leads all rookies in points with 29.
Do you think he can do it????
Eighteen freakin’ years old. Geez…
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Marian Gaborik was a healthy scratch in favor of Devin Setoguchi. Darryl Sutter on the decision: “It was a coach’s decision. We have that right in the locker room as players and coaches to have high expectations of players in terms of how they play,” Sutter said of not deploying the 34-year-old Slovakian winger, who carries a salary cap hit of $4.875 million and last season scored only 12 goals in 54 games. “Guys that don’t, got to rest. Guys that do, got to play again today and they left it all out there.”
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Damon Severson – 12 points in his first 15 games, four points in his last 16 games
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Interesting game tonight – Frederik Andersen faces his former team the Ducks for the first time tonight. And Anaheim Coach Randy Carlyle faces the Leafs for the first time since they fired him.
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Who’s the sleeper?
Ryan Hartman
Hartman? Hartman.
bet the Kings regret that Gaborik contract now lol.
(insert booing here)
My day has been made, thank you.
Think you might be mistaken about Hinostroza. He only has 15 hits this season.
I didn’t discuss Hinostroza’s hits
My bad. Misread Hartmann.
No doubt Capuano deserved to get fired about a month ago but do you think Isles will fire him a few days for the holidays? I know there is a holiday roster freeze going into effect today but is there an unwritten rule for coaching changes?
I’ve seen it before, but you’re probably right
I think it is more on Snow for terrible personnel moves over the years than Capuano, especially after this past off season. He lucked out into Boychuk and Leddy 2 years ago otherwise they would have been even worse the last few seasons.
I think Snow was doing absolutely awesome…but then it stopped. Some of his promising prospects have faded, and he’s been far too loyal to his coach. But the Isles were on the right track for awhile there…and then went off the rails over the past few months. Still fixable, but he needs to fire his coach and then bring in a couple of pieces that best suit Tavares. He also needs to have a No.1 goalie and get rid of the other two so that there is no question about it. His patience worked for awhile, but now his patience is costing his team (and eventually his job, if he doesn’t get going)
Dobber I think Snow needs to go too. Too many failed top 5 picks and bad contracts to 4th line players. This is a cap ceiling team that is last in the conference. There was no explanation for letting their 2nd and 3rd best forwards go (Okposo and Nielsen) and Ladd’s FA contract might be the worst in quite some time.
Isles beat writer reported that they could have had Hall for Hamonic but Snow turned Edmonton down. That was a terrible non trade as it would have finally given Tavares another elite winger to take the pressure off of him.
In addition Snow has already fired Ted Nolan and Scott Gorton. If he fires Capuano ( who he stuck with way too long) it will be his 3rd coaching fire. How many GM’s get to fire 3 coaches?
Snow also seems to only hire his buddies from University of Maine for his staff which is another head scratcher.
Lastly there has a rumor going around that Capuano lives in Snow’s house and rents out his basement which is making fans wonder if there is a conflict of interest
If Capuano is around in the New Year, I’ll agree with you that Snow needs to go too
Oh come on now, still on the slam Crawford train? Last year, when their D wasn’t so great, he kept them in it. He’s won two Cups and that is not easy no matter who your D is. You can say this about any great goalie…..Quick, Lundqvist, Rinne (funny how he’s gone downhill with Weber gone). Budaj’s game is elevated by the LA D, why is that not true for Quick?
Good eye catching Hartman though. The kid is a solid all-around player and has helped fill that Andrew Shaw role as they envisioned. Brilliant line combo, putting Hossa with the two kids.
Definitely true for Quick.
Quick is a 9.9 rated goalie who is actually about an 8.0. Crawford is a 9.5 rated goalie who is actually about a 6.8 (just taking a stab at quantifying my thinking.
I do say this about most goalies – Rinne for sure, Brodeur is another one I was harping on back in the day
Rinne’s slide began long before Weber was traded.
Chicago’s defense is much improved this year with an improved Seabrook, Cambell, and Kempny but it was subpar last season. Chicago has not been a leader in possession like they were several years ago and the shots they give up have gone up. Look at the #s. They were especially mediocre last year except for the skill of Kane/Panarin and the excellent play of Crawford. To use the current hot streak of Darling for some statement about Crawford is ridiculous. What next- talk of Raanta and Emery? Raanta has been excellent in NY and when Emery was in Chicago they were a juggernaut.
The reality is that Crawford is a top 10 if not top 5 goalie in this league and Darling is a streaky backup who when he is hot, is outstanding. Darling had a below average game Saturday and gave up 4 goals including some softies. He was excellent Sunday. Crawford is 6.8? LOL
Did I offend you, Paul? I’m sorry.
PS – Barry Trotz had the worst team in the league often. Didn’t stop him from making Rinne a superstar. Coaching. A coach makes a goalie. Again, sorry if I offend. Just my opinion.
I expect this stuff from you on Crawford. What stats do you use to back up your views on him?
I form a view on players as teenagers and with every month in every league on every team I tweak those views. I was in on Crawford very early, identifying him as Chicago’s goalie of the future when he was in the AHL. But that was based on opportunity and average skill, and not because he was some superstar. I maintained that he was better than Huet and Niemi. He proved me correct there, but he also didn’t prove any different in my thoughts of him as “good, but not great”. He steals games, but no more than your average goaltender steals game. For example, Quick steals more games than he does, and Lundy in his prime stole a ton of games – far more than average. Crawford is just the modern day Osgood or Fuhr. Good enough to win with a Cup team – and Chicago has been a Cup team throughout his tenure.
You really need to look at some stats to see if they fit your narrative. What kind of stats do Vollman say you should look at to gauge a goalie?
Vollman can ask me for stats advice, I’ll certainly give it if he does. I won’t be asking him. I didn’t get a degree in it so that I can go running around asking hockey analysts what stats I should look at and how to look at them. That’s what I put in all that work for! ;)
You’ve read me for years, Paul. You know that the stats I see at a high level (annual) and how deep I look. You also know that when there’s a trend, for any player – I’m there. And I remember. I remember the slumps (short-term) and I know when they’re frequent. I remember the hot runs too. I remember when a goalie is battling to keep his job, and I remember when I get slammed with emails and comments asking my opinion on if Goalie X is going to lose his job to Goalie Y. I’ve been asked, just last year/end of year prior, if Darling was going to take Crawford’s job (after first 20 games last year Crawford had .911 SV% and 11-7-2). Stats don’t capture the mood that we all feel – but I remember these moods. I remember fantasy owners panicking. And they’ve panicked about Crawford before.
Now, that being said, you want stats. High-danger shots. Look at last year:
http://dobberhockey.com/players/corey-crawford/2015-2016/regular
He was at his best when shots were 31 feet or more. .963 SV%. Team kept shots deep (and easy). Just .849 when in close within 15 feet.
Looking at this year:
.954 and .854. Much better, but still only above average. 14th in the league in close, but 8th in the league when shots are kept deep.
Crawford is a 13th or 14th ranked goalie in the NHL for talent. That’s not a slap in the face, this is the best league in the world. But he’s 13th or 14th. And in terms of fantasy and his overall numbers – the coach and the team makes him a Top 5 or 6 fantasy goalie.
I appreciate the thorough response. What website can I use to see all this data? I have always looked at 5 * 5 save percentage, adjusted save percentage, and quality starts for goalies.
The links I gave you have it. Scroll down to the charts and they have SV% by distance, avg shot distance, etc. Use the drop box to see data from other years. And if you want to compare league-wide, use the Report generator (we’re fixing up the goalie area for that tool, but currently it does give us that information – I’m working on getting more)
Those are interesting numbers and I would like to look at them a little closer. I’d like to take a 3 year average of them to see where everyone stacks up. Goalie is such a volatile position. When you take 3 years of goalie starts the number look a little different. I did notice that Crawford had the 50th average shot distance last year so he is facing closer shots than most other goalies.
And I wouldn’t be so quick to discount the farther distance shot percentage as just stopping the easy shots. I want my goalie to stop all the easy shots. One area that Crawford has greatly improved in over the years is not giving up soft goals. There have been very few this year. I saw Martin Jones and Scott Darling both give up 2 each the last 2 nights.
Dobber, I’d throw out that I agreed with you some years ago when Crawford was just coming up. However, I do think he has improved greatly. I mean, these guys don’t stay stagnant; they continue to learn and get better. Even when they slow down a little, they are more experienced and can anticipate better. That’s what allows a guy like Luongo to stick around so long. I won’t deny team D has a lot to do with it, but that also means that a lot of great goalies get their greatness handle through team D. Here’s another one – how about Bishop? I saw him in the AHL and he was not all that different from Crawford. What’s happened now in TBay? The offense is not clicking and that doesn’t take the pressure off the D like it has in the last few years?
Absolutely. Crawford has greatly improved over the last few years and the same story you tell about him now is very different than 3 years ago. First off, Chicago IS NOT the possession monster they were 2 years ago. Last year and surprisingly this year they are right in the middle of the pack for CF%. Secondly, they give up a lot more shots than you might think. This started in 2014 when they gave up the 8th most. Last year they gave up the 10th most and this year they are giving up the 2nd most.
So I don’t agree with Dobber that Crawford is propped up by the Blackhawks. In 2013 and 2014, the Hawks were a possession powerhouse but that has not been the case the last season and a half. And Dobber wants to point to save % from different distances which I am not sure what to make of. The bottom line is that the Hawks give up a good number of shots and Crawford stops a high percentage of them. Unless you can give me some stats showing how Chicago gives Crawford a high number of easy saves which prop up his overall save % numbers, then I don’t want to hear about the team in front of him. From the eye test I can tell you that Crawford gives up very, very few soft goals and time and again has given Chicago a chance to win when they are getting outplayed.
A CF% ranking of around 15th and shots given up of 8th to 10th to 2nd is your case for Crawford? Case closed? This year Chicago is actually giving up the 24th most, not 2nd. And what does that mean? Well, it means they are giving up 1.8 shots per game less than last year. A drop from 10th to 24th only means 1.8 shots per game? If anything, that only strengthens the point I’m making about Crawford’s great season. But TBH about this stat – two games of allowing 20 shots and suddenly Chicago’s back in the Top 10. That’s how easily that changes.
” Dobber wants to point to save % from different distances”
No I don’t. You practically begged me for a stat, so I gave one. First one I thought of, without even looking hard, and it backed my point.
Chicago keeps shots on the outside. Crawford saves their skin a lot, but no more than Talbot, Fleury, Holtby, Allen or Gibson. And he certainly doesn’t win games for them more than Price, Rask, Schneider or Bobrovsky
Holtby is another example of a Crawford – above average, but coaching takes him to the top. And when coaching (and the CF% stat that you use) slips a little and he falls to 6th (where Crawford is now) in a couple of years, then I’m sure I’d have this same argument with someone else then about him. So yes, Chicago has slipped, and that’s why Crawford’s overall fantasy rating is 6th rather than 3rd (where he was two or three years ago).
If you want to know what organizations actually think of a goaltender compared to his numbers, look no further than contract negotiations or the discussions about Team Canada.
PS – I think you should look at more than one advanced stat if you’re going to use it to make your decision. There are many to look at – and together they still only paint 75% of the picture. Vollman will tell you that too. Advanced stats are great tools, but don’t lean on one or two of them completely. For every advanced stat that says one thing, I can find another that says something different. Each year, for the past decade, a great new advanced stat gets introduced into the community. And there’s a reason for that: There are some things that still aren’t properly measured and still some parts of picture that aren’t fully painted.
You are one saying that a big part of Crawford’s success is a result of his team even though they are not a possession team anymore and they don’t keep shots down. That is the reason I posted CF% and shots allowed to disprove this myth that Chicago props up Crawford. Maybe in 2013 but no anymore. Crawford is propping up the Hawks. And specifically, how do you quantify coaching and the Hawks system as helping Crawford’s stats? And they don’t keep shots to the outside! Look at the number of shots at distance per game. I am looking at your website and Crawford’s shots from distance look low if anything.
Practically beg for stats? I want to know what stats you base your opinion on and you quoted shot % percentage from distance and I not very impressed with that. You throw these opinions out there and don’t back them up. This is what I think. You have created a narrative about Crawford being this generation’s Chris Osgood and you’ll fight and argue for that narrative and cherry picks stats even though Crawford’s play and statistics have surpassed that.
But they do keep shots down. They’re the 7th best team at it this year! You didn’t read my post, I guess. Quenneville props up Crawford. When Chicago was great, Crawford was 3rd. Today, he’s 6th or 7th. But in reality, he’s 13th. Why does that offend you so much? You couldn’t slide a piece of paper in between the talent gap separating 6th from 13th…yet you have your back up as if I just insulted your mother! lol
I’m not saying he’s Chris Osgood. He’s not that bad. It was only a comparable. But put Crawford in Colorado and he’d perform just as poorly as Varalmov.
The Hawks give up 30.9 shots per game. Are you saying only 6 teams give up less shots per game than this? I am looking at puckalytics.
I’m sorry, my mistake, you’re right they are 20th.
If they block two more shots each game they’re 8th, which points to the difference/gap between one ranking and another. Paper-thin
Ugh, I feel sorry for any goalie playing for Colorado. Just the same, put Quick, Bishop or Lundqvist out there and they wouldn’t have much of a chance either.
Quick would do a little better, Bishop would do a tad better. Lundqvist would do worst. But Lundqvist from 5 years ago would do far better – he’d save that team. But the Lundy of today would just as bad or worse IMO
Just to drive home my one point – Crawford being the 13th most talented goalie in the world shouldn’t be an insult and I don’t think it would meet up with too much protest. It’s bang on. And that is an improvement, too. When he first entered the league he was closer to 17th or 18th.
I’m not worried about Bishop after 21 games. A year from now, his first 21 games this season will be long forgotten. Just like Crawford’s first 20 games last season.
Crawford is propped up about 6 or 7 spots in fantasy hockey because of coaching. That’s not an insult to him, and that’s not a tough pill to swallow
Looks forward to Andersen vs the Ducks tonight!
Panarin’s overachieving is really bugging me, wishing I took him over Gaudreau! The top poolie in my pool has him, Voracek, and McDavid for his 3 forwards. Tough to beat that at the moment, will need some injuries to catch up to his team.
The Blue Jackets are insane for many reasons, will be very interesting to see how things go the rest of the way for them, and how they perform in the playoffs assuming they don’t have a total meltdown. Good for Torts, what an up and down career for him. Could make a movie based on it! Maybe John Scott can offer him some advice after his film gets produced.
How much do you think Panarin is overachieving? He had 77 pts in 80 games last year and as Dobber will tell you, a players peak is 27 or 28. Panarin is one of the best snipers in the league playing with one of the best playmakers. Like I told anyone who’d listen, he was a buy candidate at the beginning of the season. I am not surprised by this.
I’m surprised that he’s beating Kane in scoring, and scoring is down this season vs last but it looks like but he still has his same pace from last season. Tied for 3rd in league scoring seems too high for me. He’s a good player don’t get me wrong but I feel he’s overachieving overall.
I think he’s around a point/game playing with Kane. If that is top 3 then that speaks for the rest of the league. I don’t think he should be top 3 but he is top 10 IMO.
Does Smith move back out with Hoffman back in next game?
That’s a good point. I think they stick with that line for now though, since it’s clicking
Is it time for me to give up on Filip Forsberg? I have Jaden Schwartz and Ehlers at that position so I’m not dying but just don’t know if it’s time to drop him or hang on.
I don’t have a problem dropping anyone provided the player I pick up is better. And first I shop him for trade before going the ‘drop’ step. FWIW I think Forsberg has a big second half.