Digging deep on the forwards for COL, DAL, EDM – are the trends for real?

Real or Imagined: Forwards Part 2 (2016)

Having covered goalies and defensemen thus far in the series it is now time for the second of a four-part examination of the Western Conference forwards. For forwards it is important to look for high-shot and high scoring-chance rates, as shot rate in particular has been shown to be repeatable. Barring a high shot-rate, primary assists are important as those indicate skill whereas secondary assists indicate a little more luck. The variability of shot percentage and secondary assists is why looking at IPP, and significant changes in IPP, is also important. The aforementioned factors are all controllable by the player to a higher degree than ‘luck’ based factors such as shooting percentage and secondary assists. Therefore look for trends in player controllable factors but possible regression, positive or negative, in ‘luck’ based factors. Finally, general time on ice as well as share of power-play time, are also important factors. It is important to look for trends in these areas as well as it signifies coach usage, which is out of the control of the player but not a factor related to regression.

Colorado

Player	GP	TOI/G	PP%	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Nathan MacKinnon	29	20.05	56.7	8	13	6	7.7	6.4	3.6	1.14	Buy
Carl Soderberg	29	15.95	28.7	4	5	1	7.4	9.0	1.9	0.48	Hold
Jarome Iginla	29	15.17	45.5	3	4	7	5.1	6.4	2.0	0.69	Soft Buy/Hold
Andreas Martinsen	29	10.40	2.5	1	2	0	3.2	2.2	1.1	0.31	Hold
Mikhail Grigorenko	28	14.60	37.6	3	7	3	7.9	6.9	1.4	0.39
Rene Bourque	27	14.95	33.7	9	3	2	18.4	9.2	1.8	0.63	Hard Sell
Blake Comeau	25	15.99	17.3	5	2	2	13.2	5.8	1.5	0.44	Hold
Matt Duchene	25	18.65	52,4	12	9	5	20.3	10.0	2.4	0.84	Soft Sell
Mikko Rantanen	24	18.15	55.9	4	9	5	11.1	8.8	1.5	0.50	Hold
Joe Colborne	24	12.00	23.1	3	1	2	12.5	2.2	1.0	0.63	Hold
John Mitchell	24	13.33	6.1	1	0	0	3.4	2.4	1.2	0.29	Hold/Soft Buy
Gabriel Landeskog	19	18.10	37.6	4	5	2	10.0	5.8	2.1	0.74	Hold/ Soft Sell
Cody McLeod	19	5.99	0.1	0	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.5	0.16	Hold

Colorado makes Arizona’s offense look like a juggernaut. They have the worst expected goal and scoring-chance rates per 60 minutes, the second-worst goal rate and the third-worst shot rate. Colorado would not have a plus-minus problem if their goaltending was not sporting the worst save percentage in the league. There is hope for the Avs in that their goaltending has shown in the past the ability to be much better. Mackinnon may never have a great shooting percentage given the disparity between his high shot rate and his low scoring-chance rate. His even-strength shooting percentage has been below seven percent for the last three years. While his shooting percent is not necessarily due for some positive regression his low secondary-assist rate definitely is. If Rene Bourque had Nathan MacKinnon’s shooting luck this year he would only have two goals. This is especially dire given his scoring-chance rate is horribly low and there is very little explanation for his shooting percentage. Jarome Iginla is traditionally a slow starter but unlike past years he is not generating shots or scoring chances. While he still gets power-play time and his assist rate is ridiculously low so he should improve do not expect a major second-half rebound. There is nothing weird about Matt Duchene’s even-strength percentages but his overall percentages are very high at 20%. If there is reason to worry it is because his shot and scoring-chance rates have been trending down recently. Landeskog is in a similar boat as his rate stats are trending in the wrong direction, as such it is no surprise that his production continues to slip. Landeskog is redeemed a little by his multi-category value but it is unlikely he was drafted for that reason. Colorado has a couple of multi-category depth options, as Andreas Martinsen is on pace for more than 200 hits but little else. Blake Comeau provides more traditional production with 60% of Martinsen’s hits.

Dallas

Player	GP	TOI/G	PP%	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Tyler Seguin	33	18.90	61.2	10	22	13	8.8	7.7	3.4	0.84	Soft Buy
Antoine Roussel	33	15.70	26.2	5	12	3	12.2	10.2	1.2	0.81	Soft Sell
Devin Shore	33	12.90	37.5	5	8	3	11.6	9.1	1.3	0.81	Soft Buy
Radek Faksa	33	16.30	10.7	4	8	0	7.4	6.8	1.6	0.81	Soft Buy
Brett Ritchie	33	12.80	33.5	7	3	1	9.3	6.7	2.3	0.88	Soft Buy
Jamie Benn	33	20.05	59.2	9	19	10	12.2	6.5	2.2	1.09	Soft Buy
Patrick Eaves	32	16.70	55.3	11	8	8	14.3	7.5	2.4	1.16	Hold/Soft Sell
Lauri Korpikoski	32	13.95	9.0	4	5	0	7.4	7.7	1.7	0.55	Sell
Adam Cracknell	32	10.30	1.8	4	2	0	9.1	5.3 📢 advertisement:	1.4	0.33	Hold
Jason Spezza	26	16.30	54.3	5	10	8	8.5	6.3	2.3	0.84	Hold
Curtis McKenzie	22	10.10	1.1	3	4	0	9.7	7.2	1.4	0.67	Hold
Cody Eakin	14	14.30	4.7	0	1	0	0.0	4.4	0.9	0.21	Hold
Gemel Smith	12	13.08	1.5	2	1	0	14.3	1.6	1.2	0.50	Hold
Patrick Sharp	11	16.55	37.6	1	1	0	4.0	2.8	2.3	0.18	Soft Buy
Jiri Hudler	8	13.95	43.4	0	1	0	0.0	6.1	0.4	0.29	Soft Buy

The Stars’ injuries this season have definitely hit their offense hard as they take two fewer shots per 60, 1.25 fewer scoring chances per 60, 0.3 fewer expected goals per 60 and half a goal fewer per 60. The result is that Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn are not quite as valuable as they have been in years past but they are both still averaging close to a point per game. Benn has been hurt by the injuries more than Seguin but given that it is really only their scoring-chance rate stats that have dropped significantly they have more upside than usual. Roussel has some intriguing numbers such as nearly three penalty minutes per games, 1.3 hits per game and nearly a block per game to go with a 40-point pace. The hits and blocks are in line with his career norms but his penalty minutes and points are inflated. His points come from playing with Seguin early on and his penalty minutes largely from two 15+ penalty minute games. His current line with Radek Faksa and Brett Ritchie is on a tear dominating in shots, scoring chances and expected goals. If anything the line is under producing at 2.3 goals per 60 minutes given the 10 scoring chances per 60 that they generate. Faksa and Roussel had similar success last season during an extended run with Ales Hemsky. In this case each player brings potential points and multi-cat value. Patrick Eaves has played a lot with Seguin this year and has certainly benefitted in terms of shots and scoring chances. The big win has been his inherited spot on the power play due to all the injuries. The question is how long he holds on to the spot on the power play as the Stars get healthier. Devin Shore’s numbers this year look a lot like Cody Eakin’s numbers two years ago. With Shore generating nearly four scoring chances per 60 he is able to provide value despite his limited minutes. Eakin on the other hand is struggling to provide any offense, as such regression is not a huge factor. That leaves the three veterans Spezza, Sharp and Hudler. Spezza seems to be approaching the end of his road as other than last year his rates have generally been trending downwards. The key to Spezza is that as long as he is still on the Stars top power play unit he will have some value. With Sharp and Hudler the sample size makes it unclear where they will end up in the lineup, especially with Sharp injured again. With both putting up dismal numbers thus far it is as good a time as any to buy low.

Edmonton

Player	GP	TOI/G	PP%	G	A	PPP	SH%	OSH%	S/G	SC/G	Status
Connor McDavid	33	21.04	58.8	12	27	12	12.8	9.5	2.8	1.59	Hold
Jordan Eberle	33	17.60	53.2	8	15	8	9.3	6.5	2.6	1.16	Hold
Milan Lucic	33	18.10	55.9	9	14	10	11.1	8.2	2.5	1.53	Hold
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins	33	17.83	41.4	5	10	6	5.4	5.0	2.8	1.19	Hard Buy
Patrick Maroon	33	15.40	38.0	8	6	1	12.3	7.4	2.0	1.16	Hold
Leon Draisaitl	33	17.60	52.9	14	14	12	18.7	7.9	2.3	1.53	Hold/Soft Sell
Zack Kassian	30	11.99	1.7	2	5	0	4.3	8.9	1.6	0.66	Hold
Tyler Pitlick	30	9.95	1.7	7	3	0	13.7	9.9	1.7	0.59	Hold
Mark Letestu	30	13.80	32.8	6	8	4	14.3	8.7	1.4	0.59	Hold
Benoit Pouliot	28	15.10	28.3	5	2	0	12.8	6.5	1.4	0.43	Hold
Jesse Puljujarvi	23	11.85	17.2	1	7	1	2.6	8.8	1.7	0.52	Soft Buy
Anton Lander	16	10.25	2.1	1	2	0	14.3	9.1	0.4	0.13	Hold
Drake Caggiula	15	13.99	31.3	1	4	3	7.1	6.4	0.9	0.64	Soft Buy
Anton Slepyshev	15	11.20	1.3	2	2	0	9.1	6.4	1.5	0.20	Sell

Four of the Oilers top six line combinations that have played more than 40 minutes together feature Connor McDavid. McDavid is also featured in five of the Oilers top six producing lines. The point being that lucking into a player on McDavid’s line is a huge fantasy hockey boon. Other than Lucic and Eberle, with whom McDavid has played 60% and 50% of his minutes respectively, it really is luck as no one else has played even 150 minutes. Below are the Oiler forwards that have played more than 50 minutes with McDavid all but one have a higher percentage of their even strength points with McDavid than the percent of even strength ice time they played with him. The intent is to show how McDavid can impact production.

Player	% EV TOI W/McDavid	% EV Points W/ McDavid
Milan Lucic	73%	80%
Jordan Eberle	55%	64%
Patrick Maroon	28%	55%
Leon Draisaitl	19%	15%
Jesse Puljujarvi	32%	67%
Drake Caggiula	29%	50%

The Oilers are top 10 in each of shot, scoring chance, expected goal and goal rate. Meaning there are lots of decent options for all types of leagues. The Oilers have one of the best power plays in the league and anyone on that power play, especially the first unit, will get some decent production. For some proof of that look no further than Mark Letestu. The Oilers have four players (Lucic, Kassian, Maroon, Pitlick) with more than 50 hits, all but Pitlick have at least 18 penalty minutes and all but Kassian have at least 10 points. Nugent-Hopkins (RNH) has picked up his offensive game as he is averaging nearly 10 shots per 60 and nearly four scoring chances per 60. Despite the improvement his even strength shooting improvement of three percent and on-ice shooting percentage of five percent is a recipe for a regression boost. Lately RNH has been playing with Jordan Eberle and Patrick Maroon, opening up a spot on McDavid’s line. That spot initially has gone to Drake Caggiula which could be a big boon in concert with his power play time. A couple thoughts to round out the Oilers: Pitlick’s shooting percentage is probably for real, Letestu’s power play time makes up for the shooting percentage and Puljujarvi has very similar, if not better, shot rates to Draisaitl but has yet to score at even strength, and makes a good regression pick.

Statistics for this week’s column come from Dobberhockey.com, Stats.hockeyanalysis.com and Corsica.hockey

Part 1 – ANA, ARI, CGY, CHI

Part 2 – COL, DAL, EDM

UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 27 - 19:12	DET	vs	TOR
Dec 27 - 19:12	BUF	vs	CHI
Dec 27 - 19:12	CBJ	vs	BOS
Dec 27 - 19:12	N.J	vs	CAR
Dec 27 - 20:12	DAL	vs	MIN
Dec 27 - 20:12	STL	vs	NSH
Dec 27 - 21:12	UTA	vs	COL
Dec 27 - 22:12	S.J	vs	VGK