Looking Ahead: Backlund Won’t Backfire
Mike Schmidt
2017-01-06
Backlund and the Flames have a great upcoming schedule and more thoughts for the week ahead.
All fantasy owners need help in the short term AND the long term. The Looking Ahead feature identifies one player to plug into lineups in the short term, a second to invest in for the long term, a third to bench for the coming week and a fourth who will struggle to meet expectations for some time. All players discussed are selected based on their team’s upcoming schedule. Without further ado…
The Immediate Fix (Grab this guy and use him for the next several days)
Ivan Provorov, D, Philadelphia (Available in 73 percent of Yahoo leagues) – One of the top blueliners in the 2015 NHL Entry Draft, Provorov seems to be everything a team would look for in an offensive-minded defenseman. He can score. He can skate. He’s intelligent beyond his years. So… can he help fantasy owners in the short term? Sure. While he’s hardly scoring in bunches, Provorov is a high-upside rookie who is contributing just enough to be considered as a plug-and-play option in the majority of leagues. Perhaps more importantly, he’s starting to see more action on the power play as the season has gone on (especially since fellow d-man Mark Streit went out with a shoulder injury). Yes, it’d be nice if he shot a little more (67 shots on goal through 40 games played), but good blueline help is difficult to come by via the waiver wire. Philadelphia’s schedule in the coming days makes Provorov a decent pickup, and he’s one hot streak away from being a regularly useful player in fantasy.
The Building Block (Buy now, sit back and enjoy the production)
Mikael Backlund, C, Calgary (Available in 67 percent of Yahoo leagues) – If the 27-year-old Flames forward seems like he’s been around for forever, it’s because he more or less has been around forever. Backlund, Calgary’s first-round selection in the 2007 NHL Entry Draft, broke into the league in 2008-09 at just 19 years of age. Offensive production has never really been his calling card, as his 47 points, a year ago, marked a career high. However, he’s always played with a maturity beyond his years and displayed an ability to play tough minutes effectively. Now Backlund’s seeing more than two minutes of power play time per game per game for the first time in his career, and he’s a decent bet to crack the 50-point barrier in 2016-17. Nine points in his past four games has put him on the fantasy radar and makes him an interesting speculative add. He’s showing some great chemistry with linemate and standout rookie winger Matthew Tkachuk (who appeared in last week’s article under the “Building Block” section). Give Backlund a look, as it looks like he’s potentially building off of last year’s banner campaign.
The Odd Man Out (His short-term value is cause for concern)
Nazem Kadri, C, Toronto (Owned in 64 percent of Yahoo leagues) – This centerman has been a sneaky good fantasy option this season. He just keeps scoring goals (14 on the year thus far). In fact, Kadri is already two-thirds of the way toward establishing a career high in goals scored through 37 games played. That being said, this Toronto pivot is never going to be confused with Auston Matthews. He’s very much a player whose defensive contributions eclipse anything he accomplishes on his opponent’s end of the ice. To put it another way, he has just one season where he reached the 50-point mark. Any and all fantasy owners who currently roster Kadri are smart for doing so, but he is, was (and likely always will be) a replaceable fantasy asset. Also, with Toronto’s schedule coming up, he’s a fantasy asset who should not be in the vast majority of active lineups.
The Anchor (He’ll do nothing but disappoint, even over the long haul)
Marian Hossa, RW, Chicago (Owned in 80 percent of Yahoo leagues) – Hossa was a very great fantasy option for a really long time. No longer, though. Last season he totaled a modest 33 points in 64 games, and it proved to be one of the least productive campaigns of his illustrious career. The veteran winger has bounced back this year by scoring 16 goals in 34 games played prior to sustaining an upper-body injury on Dec. 20. However, his impressive production can largely be attributed to a ridiculously high 20.8 shooting percentage and an unsustainable 105.0 PDO. Things are breaking just a little too right for Hossa this far this season (well, until his untimely injury right before Christmas). Sure, he’s potted some goals this year. But Hossa is shooting less and less every year, is on pace for roughly 15 assists this season and is playing less than 18 minutes per game for just the third time since the 1999-200 campaign. Prepare for disappointment in the season’s second half.
Love ‘Em (These squads are sure to pay dividends in the coming days)
Calgary – The Flames will take to the ice six times between Friday, Jan. 6 and Saturday, Jan .14. The stretch will include back-to-back games against the unassuming Vancouver Canucks and a home matchup against the Taylor Hall-less New Jersey Devils. The going should be (quite) good Calgary in the short term.
Philadelphia – Fantasy owners can’t argue with the volume of games afforded the Flyers between Saturday, Jan. 7 and Sunday, Jan. 1t. Yes, the matchups could be easier (versus Tampa Bay, at Columbus, at Buffalo, versus Vancouver, at Boston and at Washington), but the opportunities for fantasy production will be there.
Edmonton – Starting Tuesday, Jan. 10, the Oilers will take to the ice for six consecutive games at home. Also during that same stretch, Edmonton doesn’t have more than one night off between appearances. All the home cooking should pay off for Connor McDavid and Co. during this time.
Anaheim – Nothing says “advantageous schedule” more than three straight games at home followed by a road matchup against the perpetually underwhelming Colorado Avalanche. Starting Friday, Jan. 6,, there will be a reality check in store for the Ducks.
Leave ‘Em (These squads will leave fantasy owners sorely disappointed in the short term)
New York Rangers – The necessary volume of games just won’t be there for the Rangers in the near future. After traveling to Columbus to take on the extremely hot Blue Jackets, New York will be given five consecutive days off. What else is there to know?
Colorado – Should The Avs be in the “Leave ‘Em” section every week? Probably… Also, after they host the New York Islanders on Friday, Jan. 6, the team will be off the ice for five straight days.
Toronto – On Saturday, Jan. 7, the Leafs will host Carey Price and the Montreal Canadiens. Then they’ll be off for five consecutive days. Sense a theme?
Chicago – Two of their upcoming games are against the always-tough Nashville Predators and the Braden Holtby-led Washington Capitals. Simply stated, many other squads have it easier in the coming days.
Friday, January 6 Thursday, January 12 |
Best Bets |
Calgary 4.44 – four games – VANx2, WPG and SJS |
Philadelphia 4.40 – four games – TBL, CBJ, BUF and VAN |
Anaheim 4.35 – four games – three at home |
New Jersey 4.20 – four games – three at home |
Nashville 4.07 – four games – FLA, CHI, VAN and BOS |
Steer Clear |
New York Rangers 1.05 – one game – CBJ on road |
Toronto 1.80 – two games – NJD and MTL |
Arizona 1.86 – two games – ANA and NYI |
Colorado 1.94 – two games – NYI and ANA |
Minneaota 2.46 – three games – two on road |
Saturday, January 7 to Friday, January 13 |
Best Bets |
Philadelphia 4.40 – four games – TBL, CBJ, BUF and VAN |
Calgary 4.30 – four games – three at home |
Buffalo 4.25 – four games – WPG, PHI, TBL and CAR |
Winnipeg 4.23 – four games – BUF, CGY, MTL and ARI |
Columbus 4.15 – four games – NYR, PHI, CAR and TBL |
Steer Clear |
Colorado 0.89 – one game – ANA |
Toronto 1.84 – two games – MTL and NYR |
New York Rangers 2.20 – two games – CBJ and TOR |
Arizona 2.21 – two games – NYI and WPG |
Minnesota 2.46 – three games – two on road
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Sunday, January 8 to Saturday, January 14 |
Best Bets |
Carolina 4.46 – four games – all at home |
Philadelphia 4.35 – four games – CBJ, BUF, VAN and BOS |
Nashville 4.26 – four games – CHI, VAN, BOS and COL |
Edmonton 4.24 – four games – three at home |
Anaheim 4.23 – four games – MIN, DAL, COL and ATL |
Steer Clear |
Colorado 1.84 – two games – ANA and NSH |
Vancouver 1.60 – two games – both on road |
New York Rangers 1.96 – two games – TOR and MTL |
Toronto 2.04 – two games – both on road |
Arizona 2.05 – two games – WPG and ANA |
Monday, January 9 to Sunday, January 15 |
Best Bets |
Anaheim 4.29 – four games – DAL, COL, ARI and STL |
New Jersey 4.13 – four games – FLA, EDM, CGY and VAN |
Philadelphia 4.06 – four games – BUF, VAN, BOS and WAS |
Florida 4.06 – four games – NJD, NYIx2 and CBJ |
Calgary 4.04 – four games – WPG, SJS, NJD and EDM |
Steer Clear |
Toronto 2.04 – two games – both on road |
Colorado 1.84 – two games – ANA and NSH |
Ottawa 2.05 – two games – PIT and TOR |
New York Rangers 1.96 – two games – TOR and MTL |
Arizona 2.05 – two games – WPG and ANA |
Tuesday, January 10 to Monday, January 16 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton 4.41 – four games – all at home |
Buffalo 4.25 – four games – PHI, TBL, CAR and DAL |
San Jose 4.14 – four games – EDM, CGY, STL and WPG |
Anaheim 4.29 – four games – DAL, COL, ARI and STL |
Philadelphia 4.06 – four games – BUF, VAN, BOS and WAS |
Steer Clear |
Colorado 1.84 – two games – ANA and NSH |
New York Rangers 1.96 – two games – TOR and MTL |
Toronto 2.04 – two games – both on road |
Ottawa 2.05 – two games – PIT and TOR |
Chicago 2.70 – three games – DET, WAS and MIN |
Wednesday, January 11 to Tuesday, January 17 |
Best Bets |
Florida 4.20 – four games – NYIx2, CBJ and CGY |
Buffalo 4.20 – four games – TBL, CAR, DAL and TOR |
Anaheim 4.18 – four games – COL, ARI, STL and TBL |
New Jersey 3.99 – four games – EDM, CGY, VAN and MIN |
Dallas 3.94 – four games – DET, MIN, BUF and NYR |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 2.70 – three games – two on road |
Colorado 2.78 – three games – ANA, NSH and CHI |
Detroit 2.83 – three games – DAL, PIT and MTL |
Ottawa 2.90 – three games – PIT, TOR and STL |
Vancouver 2.94 – three games – PHI, NJD and NSH |
Thursday, January 12 to Wednesday, January 18 |
Best Bets |
Edmonton 4.36 – four games – all at home |
Florida 4.25 – four games – NYI, CBJ, CGY and EDM |
Buffalo 4.20 – four games – TBL, CAR, DAL and TOR |
Anaheim 4.18 – four games – COL, ARI, STL and TBL |
Los Angeles 4.15 – four games – all at home |
Steer Clear |
Chicago 2.70 – three games – two on road |
Colorado 2.78 – three games – ANA, NSH and CHI |
Washington 2.86 – three games – CHI, PHI and PIT |
San Jose 2.86 – three games – STL, WPG and LAK |
New York Islanders 2.90 – three games – two on road |
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I’m thinking what your opinion on ghost and OEL is ROS, I have him but guys like trouba, muzzin, niskanen, vatanen are sitting on the wire. My league is a points league with the cats: G/A/PPP/SHP/GWG/+-/SOG/HIT/BLK/PIM
Thanks! Love the write-ups
I wouldn’t drop Ghost or OEL for Trouba or Muzzin. I also like them more than Niskanen and Vatanen, but I get your thought thinking. OEL, Niskanen, Vatanen and Ghost have all provided somewhat similar numbers this year, so I could see making a move if an injury occurs to one or both of your guys. Barring that, though? I’d sit tight.