With the regular season behind us it’s a good time to look at our preseason predictions to see where we hit and where we missed. This week we’ll examine how several top-end rookies and breakout candidates we examined fared. Next week we’ll look at those we thought might rebound from a less-than-stellar 2015-16 as well as those for whom we predicted decline, and compare with their on-ice performances.

Top Western Conference Rookies (original article here)

Forwards:

Patrik Laine, Winnipeg

Laine was true to prediction as the only Western Conference rookie topping 60 points, hitting 64 with 36 goals and 28 assists in spite of losing two weeks to a brutal January concussion, and a late season production dip (six goals, four assists in the final 18 games). Tying William Nylander for first among all rookies with nine power play goals was also a nice bonus as was his 0.88 points-per-game average, tops among rookies narrowly besting Auston Matthews’ second place 0.84 mark.  

Jesse Puljujärvi, Edmonton

Puljujärvi’s potential 40-point projection was maybe a year early as Edmonton opted for a slightly more veteran presence on their top three lines. The Swedish rookie spent just 28 games with the big club averaging 11:15 in ice time, tallying one goal and seven assists. His AHL totals (12 G, 16 A) in 39 Bakersfield contests were good but not stellar. We’ll chalk it up to development, as the 18-year-old showed speed wobbles while further growing into his 6-4, 203-pound frame. Better to grow in the minors than on nightly replays alongside the Art Ross winner.

Christian Dvorak, Arizona

Good call by my predecessor in identifying the former London Knights scoring star’s potential for succeeding at center. Having turned 21 in February, he did well with a few different Arizona linemate combos – Doan and Perlini, Domi and Vrbata, and late in the year with Domi and Duclair. On a team ranked 27th in scoring his 15 goals and 18 assists topped Arizona centers and his production increased to 0.25 PPG after the Martin Hanzal trade opened up more opportunities. Skated in more contests than expected with 78 and looks a fixture for the developing Coyotes.

Dylan Strome, Arizona

Dvorak’s productive season was aided by Strome’s early-season return to juniors. He’s an amazing scorer, just not yet in the NHL. Put up his third consecutive campaign of ridiculous OHL stats with 22 goals and 53 assists in 35 games – that’s 104 goals and 211 assists for 315 points in 159 Erie games during that time span, or 1.98 PPG. It will happen. He’s 20 and a super-elite talent with a team about to improve. Even if it takes until 2018 or 2019 there’s no need to panic. When it all clicks he’ll net more than the 40 points predicted for last year.       

Mikko Rantanen, Colorado

Landing a team-leading 20 goals and 18 assists on last year’s Avalanche squad, by far last in the NHL with just 165 goals, was a major achievement. Finishing third in Western Conference rookie scoring in that setting was also admirable. We called it as Rantanen nearly hit the 40-point plateau while lining up almost exclusively with Nathan MacKinnon as well as Gabriel Landeskog, Sven Andrighetto, and Rene Bourque at various junctures. We missed in thinking he’d likely split time between the AHL and NHL, as he skated in only four games with San Antonio. Tied for third in points on the team, the 20-year-old Finn should be a key Colorado piece going forward.

Daniel Pribyl, Calgary

We missed on Pribyl. The 6-3, 220-pound Czech scoring machine didn’t play for Calgary at all, totaling 33 AHL Stockton contests after recovering from ACL surgery and battling a lower-body injury in December. Finishing second in the Czech Extraliga 2015-16 scoring race with 16 goals and 45 points in 46 games, before the season the Flames looked likely to need his services at right wing, but the solid work of Michael Frolik and Micheal Ferland made this less necessary. Turning 25 in December, one hopes he is fully healed and gets his NHL chance soon.  

Nick Schmaltz and Tyler Motte, Chicago

Both Schmaltz and Motte were viewed as longshot left wing candidates for the Jonathan Toews’ line. While Motte got off to a strong start he was sent to AHL Rockford in early January for further seasoning and totaled just seven points in 33 NHL contests. Schmaltz on the other hand stuck with Chicago, played a key role on the Toews/Richard Panik line, skated with Patrick Kane and Artemi Panarin, and generally helped pick up the slack after Artem Anisomov’s injury forced him out for the final weeks of the campaign. His 61-game totals of six goals and 22 assists had him on a nearly 40-point pace over a full schedule and bodes well for the 21-year-old’s future.

Kyle Connor, Winnipeg

With the success of more seasoned Jets forwards buoyed by Patrik Laine’s emergence Connor spent most of 2016-17 marinating at AHL Manitoba, averaging slightly over 12 minutes of ice time in 20 late-season NHL contests. The 6-1, 182-pound, 20-year-old Michigan native put up good minor league numbers (25 G, 19 A, 52 games) in addition to two goals and three assists with the big club. Seen as a longshot, we predicted his production dependent upon Mathieu Perreault’s performance which, while not spectacular, had several good runs leading to a 45-point year. Expect Connor to claim a bigger role in 2017-18 with Winnipeg depth forwards Marko Dano, Andrew Copp, and Brandon Tanev restricted free agents, as well as enforcer Chris Thorburn hitting the UFA market. Shawn Matthias, Joel Armia, and Adam Lowry are also among those likely left unprotected in the expansion draft, creating further opportunity.

Defense:

Shea Theodore, Anaheim

As predicted, Theodore’s 2016-17 didn’t take off until one of the deep Duck blue line corps was removed from the scene. Without any trades taking place the 21-year-old mainly plied his trade at AHL San Diego, skating in just 34 NHL contests picking up two goals, seven assists and 28 penalty minutes. But after Cam Fowler’s recent knee injury, Theodore’s ice time to close the year and begin the postseason increased by about three minutes as he averaged more than 20 minutes a game. His point production correspondingly shot up as he’s tallied three goals and three assists with 17 shots and a plus-7 since. With Korbinian Holzer an unrestricted free agent after the playoffs, and potentially at least one other Anaheim defender departing in June’s expansion draft and the transactions surrounding it, Theodore should fulfil our too-early 35-40 point prediction starting in the fall.    

Esa Lindell, Dallas

In a largely disappointing, injury-marred year the Stars had several young players step up including Lindell. While not quite reaching our 25-30 point prediction as part of a squad whose scoring plummeted by 43 goals from the previous campaign, the 6-3, 215-pound Finn finished second among Dallas defensemen to frequent pairing John Klingberg with six goals and 12 assists. His true fantasy value came in peripheral stats, as he ranked second among Star rearguards in blocks (119) and tied for second in hits (93).  

Top Breakout Candidates (Original article here)

Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg

This indeed was a breakout year for Ehlers who spent nearly equal time skating with Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Patrik Laine, and Bryan Little resulting in 25 goals and 39 assists for 64 points, a big improvement over last year’s 38-point rookie campaign. Remaining exclusively in a top-six offensive role instead of laboring on a line with enforcer Chris Thorburn helped production as predicted. Working frequently with Laine on the power play also was a plus, although it did not bring a significant uptick in points on the man advantage (from 11 to 12). Chalk up a win for the column, which forecast at least a 50-point year from the 21-year-old.  

Rickard Rakell, Anaheim

Almost a direct hit with our 50-point breakout prediction. Rakell was very impressive and clutch, racking up 51 (33 goals to lead the team and 18 assists in just 71 games) averaging 0.72 points-per while lining up in the top six with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry, as well as Patrick Eaves after his arrival from Dallas. His ten game-winning-goals doubled the next highest on the team (Jakob Silfverberg’s five) and led the NHL despite starting the season late due to contract negotiations and appendectomy surgery recovery.

Dougie Hamilton, Calgary

Hamilton’s past year was arguably third-best among Western Conference blueliners behind Brent Burns and Dustin Byfuglien. It was an absolute breakout campaign, as the lanky rearguard was a top scorer (50 points as predicted) with solid power play (14 points) and shots-on-goal (222) numbers. Other than the penalty minutes, blocks, and hits his line looks remarkably like Byfuglien’s. All very important stats, but even they aren’t bad for the 6-6, 23-year-old who is 50 pounds lighter than Big Buff. Landing seventh among West rearguards with 64 penalty minutes is solid, and his shot totals rank third behind only Burns and Buff. And all that in just 19:41 average ice time compared with Burns’ 24:51 and Byfuglien’s 27:26. 

Mikhail Grigorenko, Colorado

Anyone considered a lineup dependent breakout candidate for last year’s Avalanche had no chance. The team just didn’t score. Grigorenko performed reasonably well compared with teammates, ranking sixth on the team with just 23 points, a four-point decline over 2015-16. His 14:05 minutes per game wasn’t the amount hoped for, representing a yearly increase of less than a minute. His role ranged from working in the top-six with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, to a bottom-six spot with Blake Comeau and Carl Soderberg. It’s tough to excel in a messy situation, so let’s see how a hopefully revitalized squad next year treats the soon-to-be 23-year-old.

Joonas Donskoi, San Jose

Donskoi’s season was more of a breakdown than a breakout. Far from attaining our 50-point hopes or even his 36-point totals of 2015-16, his six-goal, 11 assist campaign was very disappointing. Seeing several healthy scratches in addition to missing six weeks with an upper-body injury and nasty bout with the flu, the Finnish forward was limited to 61 games. As opposed to his previous success on the Logan Couture–Joel Ward line, he spent significant minutes in a bottom-six role. 

Colton Parayko, St. Louis

Parayko had an okay year but it didn’t nearly equate to a breakout even after the Kevin Shattenkirk trade. His full-year 35-point total barely passed the 33 of 2015-16. Teammate Alex Pietrangelo instead enjoyed the much-anticipated blue line bump with 18 points in 20 regular season contests including a 30% increase in overall team time on the power play following Shattenkirk’s exit. Parayko picked up seven points in that time, all assists, without an increased percentage of play during the man advantage. Perhaps a full 2017-18 will bring a significant upswing in scoring but at least in the short term it didn’t materialize.