Recapping the start of the second round, Sabres fantasy performances, and Nikita Kucherov 

****

St. Louis-Nashville

Game One was the PK Subban show. With a goal and two assists, he led the Predators attack in taking the first game of their series against St. Louis by a score of 4-3. Vern Fiddler scored the game-winner with about five minutes left in the contest. Game Two will be Friday night back at Scottrade Center.

The big news out of the game was the injury to Nashville forward Kevin Fiala. Early in the second period, Fiala was taken hard into the boards by Robert Bortuzzo, crashing violently with his legs split. He was stretchered off, and obviously did not return. There is no further word on his condition other than alert and moving at the hospital at the time of posting. Here is the play:

another look. ugh. ow. pic.twitter.com/5XpdNwIcle

— steph (@myregularface) April 27, 2017

With Calle Jarnkrok out of the lineup, Mike Fisher took the spot between James Neal and FIala. It’s that second name that is intriguing to me. Pardon if it gets annoying, but Fiala will be a guy I talk about often this summer.

In the series against Chicago, the 20-year-old winger played 16:02 per game. Yes, there are overtime games mixed in there, but he didn’t really play significantly less minutes than James Neal at 16:54. At even strength, Fiala was among the top-six Nashville forwards in ice time per game, garnering more than Fisher or Craig Smith. While Smith’s role has been minimized, it’s worth noting that the coaching staff is rewarding the budding young scorer with more ice time. His underlying results are solid, his goal rates for his brief career are good, and he’s earning the trust of the coaching staff. Keep this in mind when going into drafts next season, as he could be a cheap source of goals should he maintain this top-6 role, health pending, of course.

Edmonton-Anaheim

Fending off two goals from Anaheim to tie the game 3-3 in the third period, Adam Larsson scored late, his second of the game, to give the Oilers a 4-3 lead. They would hang on to win Game One by a 5-3 margin. Leon Draisaitl had a goal and three assist to lead the way for Edmonton's offence. It was a tight-checking, sometimes vicious affair that gave us a preview of a pretty good series to come. 

After averaging over two full minutes less in ice time in the first round than Patrick Eaves, and sixth among Ducks forwards, Corey Perry played under 15 minutes in Game One. This kind of trend is worrisome for keeper owners. He can only produce so much in the minutes he’s given.  

Just a general observation here, but other than a resurgence from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins these playoffs (goals notwithstanding), Anton Slephyshev looked very, very good offensively in this game. He had a handful of partial breakaways where he drove wide on the Anaheim defence, which is not a small feat. I’m not sure how much fantasy value he’ll have in the 2017-18 season assuming he’s off the top line and top PP unit in Edmonton, but he and Jesse Puljujarvi could round out this Edmonton attack nicely if they keep progressing as they have.

****

In continuing my team-by-team post-mortems here in the Ramblings, next in the alphabetical list is Buffalo. There has already been a major shake-up in the offseason with both the coach and general manager fired. We’ll see who ends up with each job, but for now, it’s worth looking at what went right or wrong with certain players.

Sam Reinhart

Maybe some people are disappointed with Reinhart’s performance so far. Let’s look at this in a bit of context, though. He just finished his age-21 season, and has played 167 games. In those games, he’s managed 0.54 points per game. Other players to have recently managed around the same point-per-game mark through their first three years, by the age of 21? Tyler Seguin at 0.6, Jonathan Drouin and Jonathan Huberdeau at 0.58, Ryan O’Reilly at 0.52, and Ryan Johansen at 0.51. Were he to end up as any of those players, I doubt fantasy owners would be disappointed.

In each of the last two seasons, Reinhart has managed at least three scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five, per Corsica. Other guys in his range of 3.11 scoring chances per 60 minutes at five-on-five over the last two years? Seguin (again) at 3.16, Joe Pavelski at 3.14, Jeff Carter at 3.05, and Vladimir Tarasenko at 2.97. It’s safe to say that when it comes to scoring chances, Reinhart is in good company, and is doing so at a very young age.

The raw results haven’t been there yet, with Reinhart not cracking the 50-point plateau in a season. However, the underlying results that can lead to good seasons have been there, and a healthy Jack Eichel should go a long way in boosting his point totals next season. Hopefully the new coaching staff will leave them together, because that could be a very special second line in very short order.

Ryan O’Reilly

Those in leagues that count face-offs couldn’t have been more pleased with O’Reilly’s performance this year. For the third time in four seasons, the centre reached 20 goals and 35 assists, and now has back-to-back 1000 face-off win seasons since getting to Buffalo. He is about as consistent as it gets.

One curious aspect of O’Reilly’s season was a career-high in shots per 60 minutes of 7.37, having only cracked the 7.0 mark once before (2011-12, 7.12). That helped him set a career-high in shots on goal per game. Is this a blip, or a trend? That will require more digging.

I am not expecting growth next year. He should be used again in a checking role, as he has been in recent memory, in an effort to insulate the duo of Eichel-Reinhart. With that said, he’s proven to be a consistent commodity, so those looking to just lock in 20 goals and 35 assists with a pick in the mid rounds should always keep him on the radar.

Rasmus Ristolainen

A divide has been set between stats guys and more traditional hockey people. One side says Ristolainen has been absolutely buried by the opposition in his time so far in the NHL (and he has). The other says he’s still young, and playing a large role on a poor team. As fantasy owners, it doesn’t really matter as long as he keeps putting up the points.

What concerns me is just how much he relies on the power play for his production. A full 53.5 percent of his points over the last two years have been with the man advantage. That is higher than Shayne Gostisbehere (52.9 percent), Oliver Ekman-Larsson (48.9 percent), Drew Doughty (45.2 percent), all among the leaders in power-play points over the last two years. Being so reliant on the man advantage has one big drawback: if the team ever gets away from loading up one PP unit, he’s toast.

There is no real reason to sound the alarm at this point. We will see what, if anything, Buffalo does to add top-end defencemen via trade or free agency in the offseason. Should another offensive defenceman be added to the mix, it could be a serious detriment to Ristolainen’s upside due to a lack of five-on-five production. Keep an eye on what the Sabres do in the coming couple of months.

Robin Lehner

There are four goalies with at least 20 starts in each of the last two seasons, and a .920 save percentage or better: James Reimer, John Gibson, Braden Holtby, and Lehner. Injuries have been a problem for his career, but he has managed a .918 save percentage over his 166 games (155 starts). That is the same mark as goalies like Craig Anderson, Corey Crawford, and Jonathan Quick. Although it seems like he’s been around forever, next year will be his age-26 season.

Since joining the Sabres, Lehner’s five-on-five save percentage of .928 is the same as names like Henrik Lundqvist, Ryan Miller, Frederik Andersen, and Ben Bishop. While not among the elite (Lundqvist aside), it’s certainly good enough. Should the defence improve in front of him, Lehner has the potential to be a top-12 goalie in fantasy. It’s kind of a blanket statement considering almost any goalie could, conceivably, but he has the skills to do it.

****

One of the bigger news stories in hockey this week aside from the actual playoffs are the quotes from Lightning forward Nikita Kucherov in an interview with Sovetsky Sport. The quotes are varied, so I’ll just link to the Yahoo piece that contains all the pertinent information.

There isn’t a whole lot that’s fantasy-relevant contained in the article itself, but there is one big lesson to take away here: trying to include subjective “analysis” in fantasy projections is pointless. Few people know what’s really going on in the mind of a pro athlete, in a pro dressing room, or in any other off-ice situation. As much as projections are guess-work – educated or not – it complicates matters by trying to guess how something like a player being unhappy with his line mates or coach might hurt.

Think about it for a second. Kucherov finished with 40 goals, 85 points, and the fourth-highest point-per-game mark among players with at least 60 games played. All the while, he was apparently unhappy with the play of some of his teammates, and the coach’s lineup decisions. If there was ever a situation where an off-ice issue could lead to negative on-ice performance, this would be one of them, and Kucherov not only had a career year, but one of the best offensive seasons in the league.

The offseason can drag on once free agency passes, with rumours and conjecture being common. This story is a reminder that relying on such rumours/conjecture in any meaningful way for fantasy projections could lead to disastrous results.

****

Speaking of Yahoo, if you aren’t reading the playoff eulogies – they get a blogger from an opposing team to write a eulogy of a team that was recently eliminated – you are missing out. The best one so far is probably Minnesota’s, and the rest are linked at the bottom of the article.