The 2017 Offseason Outlook for the Arizona Coyotes and Dallas Stars

Following the lottery draft order/disorder we’ve been examining each Western Conference squad’s offseason outlook, emphasizing points-only pool production with some peripheral considerations and highlighting potential breakout candidates. We started in the cellar points-wise and are moving up as we go. We’ll tackle Vegas shortly after the June expansion draft. Last week was Colorado and Vancouver. This week we look at the Arizona Coyotes and Dallas Stars.

Arizona Coyotes – 30-42-10 (70 points)

Greatest needs: top-line center, top-pairing defenseman, experience

With their deep pool of excellent prospects Arizona is on the precipice of great things. Next year it may just be improved things, but there should be significant growth and increased experience they can build upon with or without Shane Doan.   

The treasure trove begins with forwards Christian Dvorak and Max Domi. After the trade-deadline departure of Martin Hanzal, Domi and Dvorak clicked well, frequently alomgside top Arizona scorer and fantastic bargain ($1 M before bonuses) Radim Vrbata (20 G, 35 A) at right wing, a pending UFA. With a point total greater than those of Kopitar, Thornton, Perry, Hall, and other notables he may be a wise veteran re-sign for the young club.

Goal-scoring 21-year-old left wing Brendan Perlini is a very interesting name to watch. His extremely quick release, powerful shot, impressive skating speed, and strong wrists that allow him to accurately rifle the puck bode well for his future. After a late-season slowdown he found the net 14 times in 57 Coyote contests, but for a while his goals-per-game average stood third among rookies behind only Auston Matthews and Patrik Laine.

While I’d say Dvorak, Domi and Perlini are the best forward candidates for a 2017-18 breakout, Clayton Keller looks every bit ready and could be in for monster things. GM John Chayka’s late season signing gave us a short glimpse into the future with this franchise-changing prospect who should line up in a top-six wing position as the campaign progresses, if not right out of camp. We’ll see how quickly they move him along, but his amazing production at every level thus far will probably force the issue.

Dylan Strome’s impending step forward should be soon as the uber-prospect had another ridiculous year at center with OHL Erie (22 G, 53 A in 35 games) and a postseason featuring 14 goals and 17 assists as I write this. Arizona must be dying to see what he and Keller can do on the same line. I bet it goes down soon. Not sure you’ll get immediate returns, but obviously snap Strome up if you can. Owner impatience may have brought down his asking price.

Anthony Duclair has promise as shown by his 20 goal, 24 assist 2015-16. Let’s hope last year’s 15-point campaign was an anomaly. Two-way power forward Christian Fischer impressed with three goals on his first three shots and solid overall play during seven AZ contests. He also racked up a healthy 0.83 point-per-game average (20 G, 27 A, 57 games) with AHL Tucson.

The defensive pairing of 19-year-old Jacob Chychrun (20 points in 68 games) and 21-year-old Anthony DeAngelo (14 points in 39 games), Sarnia Sting teammates in 2014-15 began developing into a potent combo at even strength and on the man-advantage. Add both to the possible breakout basket. Particularly if several other prospects hit their scoring stride, as plentiful playmaking opportunities will follow. 

Serving as Captain for Team USA at the World Championships, Connor Murphy’s continued development is worth keeping an eye on. He finished with 201 hits (eighth among NHL defensemen) and 119 blocks. Luke Schenn, possible expansion draft casualty, led the Coyotes with 286 hits (second among NHL blueliners to Mark Borowiecki) and was second on the squad in blocks to Alex Goligoski with 134. Having a down year while playing the majority with a broken thumb, we can also hope for a revitalized, healthy and perhaps underpriced OEL in 2017-18.

Kyle Wood is a massive 6’ 5”, 235 lb., 21-year-old offensive defenseman with 14 goals and 29 assists in 68 games with Tucson, and winner of the hardest shot competition at this year’s AHL All Star Game blasting an impressive 99.3 miles per hour. He excels on the man-advantage (second-most among AHL blueliners with 11 power play goals and tied for ninth with 16 power play assists) and could contribute on the Arizona blue line at some point next year. A highly-recommended dynasty pick up.  

With the Coyotes mercilessly dropping to the seventh pick we can stop imagining Nolan Patrick or Nico Hischier in Sedona red. They will add another promising prospect though like Gabe Vilardi, Owen Tippett, or Timothy Liljegren. There are several other high-quality possibilities here too, both at forward and on defense. And don’t forget their second first-round pick, 23 overall, obtained from the Wild in the Hanzal trade and an early second-round choice at 35. Include these along with a few key free agents, as Chayka has about $27.6 million under the cap, and Arizona should drastically improve in upcoming years.

The stats for netminders Mike Smith and Louis Domingue were down from 2015-16, but each gave gutsy performances as the young squad suffered periods of inconsistency. As things stand one will go unprotected in the expansion draft. The 35-year-old Smith appears an unlikely Vegas choice with his $5.7 M cap hit, so the Coyotes might expose him instead of 25-year-old Domingue and his $1.05 M hit. But it could go either way as Smith is a team leader and cornerstone, and it’s hard to assess Domingue’s potential with AZ’s leaky defense over the past few campaigns. 

It’s also tough to determine how potential free agent signings will affect the roster and if top, relatively young choices would be willing, but there is that $27.6 M. UFA forwards Radulov, Oshie, Vanek, Eaves, Bonino and Hanzal and UFA defensemen Shattenkirk, Stone, Del Zotto and Alzner are all out there. With the changing face of the franchise and all that cash they may land one or two.  

Dallas Stars – 34-37-11 (79 points)

Greatest needs: health, goaltending

A decent, 11-8-1 finish can’t hide the fact that 2016-17 was a major disappointment for Dallas. Coming off 109 points, the Western Conference first seed, and an eventual second-round playoff exit much more was expected than 79 points, 15 short of a playoff spot, and sixth-place in the Central. They’ve taken a big step though. With recently acquired Ben Bishop under contract, offseason goal number one is achieved for the price of a fourth-round pick and six years at $29.5 M.

Plagued with first-half injuries to Patrick Sharp, Cody Eakin, Jiri Hudler, Ales Hemsky, Johnny Oduya, Julius Honka, Antoine Roussel and I’m sure others I’m forgetting, the Stars were cursed from the start. Early season lines shifted almost daily. A few players took advantage of the situation to post better than expected years, most impressively soon-to-be UFA Patrick Eaves who fetched a conditional draft pick in a deadline deal with the Ducks that has turned into Anaheim’s first round selection.

Forwards Devin Shore, Radek Faksa (RFA), Brett Ritchie (RFA), Adam Cracknell and Curtis McKenzie, and defensemen Esa Lindell (RFA), Stephen Johns and Jamie Oleksiak (RFA) all saw career highs in contests and played with varied degrees of success. The 22-year-old Shore’s 33-point (13 goals, 20 assists) campaign, ability to excel at center and wing, and late-season play on the Jamie Benn – Tyler Seguin line make him a worthy top-six candidate for 2017-18.

His frequent linemate Faska also tallied 33 points with 12 goals and 21 assists, peripheral bonuses with 101 hits and 67 PIM, and was a versatile force on the penalty kill and taking faceoffs. He should find a key spot next year. Additionally, Johns led the Stars in hits (159) and blocks (130), with Ritchie second in hits (153) and McKenzie (103) third. Lindell finished second to John Klingberg’s 49 points in defenseman scoring with six goals and 12 assists, and second in average ice time among all Stars’ skaters with 21:53. Lindell also joined Klingberg on, by far, Dallas’ most offensively-productive blue line pairing.

Shore especially, Lindell, Faksa, and Johns are potential breakout candidates (Faksa and Johns particularly in multi-category leagues) and may be relatively inexpensive to obtain. With Hemsky, Sharp, and Hudler all UFAs, the opportunity will still be there. Conversely, Benn, Seguin, and Klingberg are still the top gets in Dallas and undoubtedly quite expensive. Seguin’s outstanding 72-point (26 goals, 46 assists) campaign with 29 power play points led the club, with Benn’s 69 points close behind.

Another prospect to consider is speedy, 19-year-old forward Denis Guryanov who tore up the WJCs with Team Russia and started hitting his stride in the second half of the season with AHL Texas. Of course whomever they select with their third pick in the Entry Draft will be an instantly promising add. There are a variety of ways they could go, but elite forward Casey Mittelstadt (a University of Minnesota commit) and top defenseman prospect Miro Heiskanen from Finland are increasingly mentioned as likely possibilities. And who knows, maybe they doubly address the future in net by taking Jake Oettinger, Mike Dipietro, or Ukko-Pekka Luukkonenwith with an early pick.

Also expensive, in terms of cap hits, is their goalie trio of Kari Lehtonen ($5.9 M), Anti Niemi ($4.5 M) and now Ben Bishop ($4.92 M). One incumbent, and maybe both will be gone. It’s about time, although the prospect of employing another pricy veteran with recently declining stats has some Stars fans understandably worried. It’s always the chicken and egg thing when determining how much goalie performance is influenced by defensive quality. With defense-minded Ken Hitchcock at the helm and additional experience Dallas is hoping to help Bishop by decreasing opponents’ quality shot opportunities.

Lehtonen and Niemi registered the franchise’s fewest wins in a non-lockout year (34) and worst goals-against-average (3.17) since 1995-96. Add a horrid .893 save percentage and a questionable set of prospects in net and it’s easy to see why Bishop’s now in Dallas. They might want to use some of their $15.9 in 2017-18 cap space to bring the two-time Vezina finalist some blue line help via free agency though.  

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