Expansion draft planning, anything from Erik Johnson? Plus more…

Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final had as much weirdness as any other game in the series. Another disallowed goal. A bank shot that would make a professional pool player proud. But finally the NHL season is over and we can get on with what should be a crazy busy offseason that will begin in short order.

Can the Penguins threepeat? Winning a Stanley Cup three years in a row is going to be a grueling mountain to climb. Teams won’t be copying the Pittsburgh model of constructing a defense. That says something about the importance of defense if they are the first Stanley Cup champion without a defenseman with even a single Norris Trophy vote. But they are still the favorite for next season because they have proven that they have the talent to win when it matters.
 

It's never too early to look at the odds to win the 2018 #StanleyCup

The #Oilers are tied as 2nd favourites pic.twitter.com/t6zKdCvGx5

— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) June 12, 2017

This is interesting and worthy of discussion. I’d put the Lightning in the playoffs next season, but that would be a huge leap from the season that just passed if they are the team to come out of the Eastern Conference. Obviously having Steven Stamkos for a full season would be a major boost. But is Andrei Vasilevskiy ready for prime time?

As for Nashville, I’m undecided as to whether this is a one-off, or whether they will be back in the final with the current group sometime over the next few seasons. There’s no clear favorite in the West. You could write off Vegas, Colorado, and Vancouver as lottery teams. But the rest of the teams have at least a decent shot at making the playoffs. Maybe that team to beat is Edmonton after the huge strides they made this season.

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The Predators could go the route of protecting eight skaters instead of seven forwards and three defensemen so that their big four of P.K. Subban, Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm could all be protected. This could mean that James Neal is a possibility to be exposed, according to TSN. I think we see some teams make expansion draft decisions not entirely on talent but also factoring in contract. Neal has a year left at $5 million, and the Predators have historically spent under the cap ceiling.

Another example of this is Ottawa, where Dion Phaneuf was recently asked to waive his no-trade clause. The cap-conscious Senators have also been rumored to be leaving Bobby Ryan unprotected, so they could be using the expansion draft as an opportunity to dump salary. Phaneuf and Ryan proved during the playoffs that they are still solid NHL contributors. For what it’s worth, Darren Dreger of TSN believes that Phaneuf will not waive his no-trade clause.

The Golden Knights do need to add a few players with significant salaries to reach the cap floor. But I don’t think they would specifically target Phaneuf or Ryan, unless George McPhee views either of them as a potential building block player. Both Phaneuf and Ryan have multiple years left with a $7 million cap hit each.

I’ll take a step back here regarding the Ottawa situation. We had quite an intense debate in the comments section of an earlier Ramblings about Ottawa not selling out during the playoffs. I’ll add another possible reason for this here. This is a term that you don’t hear as often with the salary cap, but Ottawa is a small-market team. As in they don’t have nearly as many fans to draw from. I won’t compare the Ottawa market to Nashville again. But let’s compare Ottawa to Toronto and Montreal.
 

We asked Canadians to tell us their favourite Canadian NHL team.#Canada150

Here are the results 👉 https://t.co/xa85uTJtXr pic.twitter.com/F5TX0JQM9W

— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 8, 2017

This poll might not be accurate to a tee (after all, how much emphasis do you place on political polls?) But if 27 percent of Canadians identify as Leafs’ fans, 26 percent of Canadians identify as Habs’ fans, but only 5 percent identify as Sens’ fans, how much of a crowd do the Senators really have to draw from? Also keep in mind that their potential fan bases are in overlapping geographical markets, unlike British Columbia and Alberta where the dividing line of fandom is more clear.

I won’t get into all the other factors in a larger study, but this is a real challenge for the Senators. The smaller fan base can affect gate revenue, which can affect what the team can afford to pay in salaries.

The Ducks have a deal in place so they won’t be asking Kevin Bieksa to waive his no-movement clause, according to Bob McKenzie. Already things are getting interesting. This can’t be the most optimal solution for the Ducks, as it could very well involve a Sami Vatanen trade.
 

It's believed ANA has a pre-arranged deal in place with VGK so it isn't necessary to ask Kevin Bieksa to waive his NMC.

📢 advertisement:

— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) June 13, 2017

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Marko Dano signed to by Winnipeg to one-year deal. He’s the kind of forward whose value could benefit by being picked up by Vegas. He has shown flashes of talent in the past, but he hasn’t been given extended opportunities because of either icetime or injury.

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Scott Hartnell might be bought out, according to Aaron Portzline of the Columbus Dispatch. This would help the Jackets’ expansion draft situation, as Hartnell would have to be protected because of his no-movement clause.

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There is one league that finished its season after the NHL – the AHL. Congratulations to the Grand Rapids Griffins, the affiliate of the Detroit Red Wings, on winning the Calder Cup. As we look for Stanley Cup playoff standouts for potential value next season, it’s good to check out the development leagues for future NHL contributors.

One such example is Tyler Bertuzzi, who was named the AHL playoff MVP with 19 points in 19 playoff games. Bertuzzi is the sixth-ranked Red Wings’ prospect on Dobber Prospects. Since the Red Wings are in somewhat of a rebuild mode, don’t be surprised if Bertuzzi (the nephew of Todd Bertuzzi) is on the Wings’ NHL roster next season.

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Time for a fantasy hockey question:
 

With the Barrie trade talk/abysmal play, what's Erik Johnson's status/outlook in Colorado?

— Matt Stallone (@StalloneMatt) June 14, 2017

If Tyson Barrie’s fantasy value was low last season, was Erik Johnson’s value lower than low? Held to just 46 games because of injury, Johnson recorded a rather mediocre 17 points with a minus-6. If you go back one season, Johnson scored 27 points with a minus-19 in 73 games. You have to go back two seasons to find a near half point-per-game pace for Johnson, but that was also in a season cut short due to injury (23 points in 47 games).

There’s always a chance that Johnson’s fantasy value could improve if Barrie is traded. I tried to examine Johnson’s role when Barrie was out of the lineup for about two weeks in January. Unfortunately, Johnson was out during that time as well. It’s not as if he missed out on much anyway, given Colorado’s dead-last 12.6 percent power-play success rate.

I have a feeling that Johnson wouldn’t be a shoo-in for first-unit power-play minutes if Barrie is traded, as Mark Barberio had a similar power-play time on ice per game total (2:11) than Johnson (2:06). However, Barberio could be claimed in the expansion draft, while Johnson probably isn’t going anywhere because of his no-movement clause. So it’s best to wait and see not only because of Barrie, but also Barberio.

It’s difficult to be optimistic about Johnson’s future prospects unless he or Barrie is traded. Even then, Johnson is hardly a player I’d recommend for next season because of his potential for injury and recent lack of production.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.