Ramblings: The Calm before the Storm (June 13)
Neil Parker
2017-06-13
This is what the next two weeks look like:
With the Stanley Cup Final complete, here is another look at the upcoming NHL schedule, which will be a busy two weeks ahead. pic.twitter.com/0H0LbxGZIq
— CapFriendly (@CapFriendly) June 12, 2017
Business is about to pick up.
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Asking a player to waive his no-movement clause is disrespectful. It's either an agreement an organization made with the player, or it was a known entity when the player was acquired by the organization. No player should be looked upon negatively for declining to opt out of a contract stipulation.
The NHL isn't looking out for the players. These are billionaire owners and the regard for player safety is atrocious. These athletes are paid well, but how many leave the game with permanent health ailments or lifelong injuries?
Teams opting not to ask players to waive their contract agreements should be praised — not disparaged. And any player that decides not to waive his no-movement clause shouldn't be run over the coals.
Minnesota is handling this the right way — keep it out of the news.
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Finding a perfect balance of shot attempts and shot quality is the secret to long-standing success in the NHL. Pittsburgh was outshot throughout the playoffs, and especially during the finals, but the Penguins just hoisted their second consecutive Stanley Cup.
Here's an interesting read about how the Penguins won despite losing the possession battle. The particular focus was Pittsburgh's lack of shots from the point compared to their attempts in the high-danger area in front of the net. I recently touched on this fallacy of #fancystats in a Ramblings about the Minnesota-St. Louis first-round matchup.
As fantasy players, we want players who are driving possession, but they also need to be generating high-danger chances. Corsi considers all shot attempts equal, but we all know they're not.
Additionally, this was an interesting note to pull from the article:
"During the playoffs, Pittsburgh attempted 127 shots off backhands, deflections, tip-ins and wrap arounds, 38 more than Nashville. That difference was almost entirely created in the Stanley Cup Finals, where the Penguins attempted 32 shots in this fashion, scoring six times compared to the Predators’ two."
Those non-traditional shots made a huge difference, and if you think about it, it's pretty rare to see an even-strength goal where a shooter just beats the goalie. It just doesn't happen often.
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The Bruins didn't ask any of their four players with no-movement clauses to waive them leading into the Monday deadline to do so. It leaves the Bruins with four forwards, two defensemen and a goalie to protect. Brad Marchand, David Pastrnak, Torey Krug and Tuukka Rask are locks, and Boston has another two forwards and a defenseman to protect.
Who are they?
Which two of Ryan Spooner, Matt Beleskey or Riley Nash?
Boston is interesting because they're top heavy with solid players and a capable goaltender, and the Bruins have some assets to make a move. Bruins insider Joe Haggerty expects Boston to trade for a winger or defenseman, as opposed to address the two obvious holes through free agency.
Of course, Haggerty recently touted Anders Bjork as a potential top-six fix. The insider also highlights Spooner as a trade candidate in the linked video.
The Bruins are set to be a major player over the coming weeks.
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Marc-Andre Fleury waived his no-movement clause earlier this season, and it's almost now a guarantee that Sunday's game was his last with the Penguins.
His landing spot will need to be determined before his fantasy value can be accurately projected, but there certainly is a nice floor considering he should see a significant workload. Even if he is on a weak team, he could still provide value in the wins and save percentage columns.
Fleury wasn't great this past season with a .909 save percentage and 3.02 goals-against average, but he had been rock solid in each of the previous three years. In fact, from 2013-14 through 2015-16, Fleury was one of just 10 goalies with at least 150 games played and a .919 save percentage. He also posted a ninth-ranked .926 five-on-five save percentage among all netminders with at least 7,500 minutes played during that timeframe.
Looking ahead, he's probably more serviceable than solid, but being the unquestioned No. 1 should help his fantasy value. A rebound campaign is well within reach, too.
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It's tough not to be impressed with Fleury's professionalism over the past year.
"I think we did a good job together to win this Cup," Fleury said. "Matt is the goalie of the future for this team, I think it was important for him to celebrate tonight."
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TSN has a trade-bait board out, and there are a few surprises.
Travis Hamonic ranked sixth stands out. He re-upped with the Islanders and has three years remaining on his deal. Trading the 26-year-old defenseman would also be a sign of moving in another direction, and that wouldn't align with trying to be a contending team that John Tavares wants to stick with. Obviously, Hamonic had requested a trade in the past, so perhaps that's still the angle.
Boone Jenner doesn't make sense at all. He's an assistant captain that is a restricted free agent at the end of the 2017-18 campaign, and he's just entering his prime. Here's what I said about Jenner earlier this spring.
Jonathan Drouin continues to pop up in trade rumors, and it makes absolutely no sense. He's one of just 22 players aged 21 or younger to post a 20-goal, 50-point campaign since the lockout-shortened season and owns endless offensive potential. I discussed Drouin in depth earlier this spring, too. There is no doubt about his talent and fantasy upside, it's just a crowded forward corps in Tampa, and he's going to be one of the most heavily inked breakout candidates leading into draft season. Drouin is going to be overvalued in a lot of fantasy circles next fall.
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Ottawa asked Dion Phaneuf to waive his no-move clause Monday. I don't see how Marc Methot is a significant upgrade over Phaneuf, so it's clearly salary related. In fantasy, Phaneuf is an excellent supporting piece for blue lines because of his cross-category profile. After all, he was just one of two defensemen with five goals, 30 points, 100 PIM and 150 shots last year.
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Another player I've touched on a few times already this spring is Jordan Weal. It appears that he's close to inking a new deal with the Flyers. He should earn a top-six role next season and after posting 58 goals and 186 points over 192 AHL games the past three seasons, Weal is a ripe late-round target this fall. Here is a little more detail from a previous Ramblings.
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The Panthers did not ask Keith Yandle to waive his no-move clause, and Scott Hartnell wasn't asked to waive his no-move clause by the Blue Jackets, either.
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Buckle up, Dobberheads. The next two weeks are going to be a blast.
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I read Fleury waived his NMC only for Vegas – so if that is true, that narrows down the teams where he’ll end up significantly.
I believe he can select 12 teams to be traded to.
18 teams he is willing to accept a trade to. If Vegas selects him or Vegas has a deal worked out with Pit to select him as opposed to say Cole. Vegas can have him submit an 18 team trade list if so inclined.
My goalies in Vegas based on what we know today which is little are MAF & Grubauer in the NHL & Korpisalo as he’s waiver exempt in the minors. Trades or deals with Vegas could impact that.
Fleury waved his NMC to be exposed in expansion. There is only 1 expansion team. Technical issue. ha-ha!
And how about Nathan MacKinnon on that trade-bait list? Wasn’t it just before the last trade deadline that Joe Sakic said: “Any player not named Nathan MacKinnon is available”?
Must have missed him. You’re right, it makes little sense to deal MacKinnon.
Listened to a local Pgh sports talk show yesterday that is mostly about hockey. About five minutes in, he said Fluery waived his NMC only for Vegas.
that’s what i heard too!
The host also said the deal was worked out months ago, so Vegas is in on it.
The owners don’t play the game, players play the game. It’s not the owners hitting to hurt, targeting heads, hitting from behind, etc. This is the fastest most physical game on the planet. What’s worse is they play a ton, more than any other physical professional sport by a mile. Football plays 16 games a season. The bleeding heart liberals that want to hold everyone else accountable for their choices cause me pause.
Hockey is a dangerous game with out the dynamics I mention above. It’s fast, physical & virtually everyone gets hurt, most of a serious nature. You need to know as a parent if you choose to allow your child to play competitive hockey; contact from Bantam up in Canada now, that concussions; numerous, broken ribs; 3 times, broken wrists; twice, broken collar bones; once, separated shoulders; lost count, etc. are coming. I have 3 teenage boys; 19, 18 & 16, we have had all of the above & non have played above JR. B. in Canada. There were no owners & 1 year of Jr. B for 1 son was enough to know that striving to go further simply wasn’t worth the risk.
Are players stupid? Are they unable to see the risks? Have they not read the studies, stats, multitude of data that exists? If You choose to play the game & pursue it to the highest level you should be well aware of the risks & why they are happening. That’s why they aren’t paid minimum wage but 100″s of thousands of dollars to millions to accept those risks. How is this the owners fault? Is someone forcing these players to play? Yikes.
Not sure we’re not on the same page. My only angle was that owners/GMs shouldn’t be putting players in the compromised position of having to decide whether or not to waive a no-movement clause. Or, if they do ask, it shouldn’t be all over the media.
My comment was directed at.
“These are billionaire owners and the regard for player safety is atrocious.”
In fairness, you can’t blame the owners for injuries when players frequently ignore the health of their opponents, especially boarding. Want to reduce concussions? Instruct the refs to call more penalties on dangerous plays and make them major penalties and game misconducts. Throw the book at players for infractions – much longer suspensions and way bigger fines.
I’ve been annoyed that the NHLPA hasn’t been demanding that players do more to save themselves from serious injuries. I have no sympathy whatsoever for past or present goons – what did they think was going to happen to them later in life after taking that many blows to the head? The players with CTE I feel sorry for are the victims of dirty play or that have accidents where they hit their head on the ice after a trip, for instance.
Wondering if the Penguins might have a side-deal with Vegas in which the Knights do not claim Fleury. If so, maybe management made Fleury aware of that deal and it bothered him less to wive his NMC… Dunno, just thinkg out loud
“Asking a player to waive his no-movement clause is disrespectful.”
I don’t understand this. An NMC is a contractual clause and nothing else. It’s not a designation of loyalty, it’s not an emblem of prestige or respect. It’s a negotiation tool, no more significant than the player’s salary or other contractual perks. The player negotiates it in order to maintain leverage over their own career situation. Requiring the team to ask before making any moves is exactly what this clause is about. The player has veto powers, not some blanket moratorium on discussing that player’s future with the team. It may be that the player wouldn’t mind being traded, but wants to have input into the places he could go. Maybe they don’t mind going to Vegas. You don’t know until you ask.
Now, whether or not it is disrespectful to discuss waiving NMCs with the media, that’s an open question.
That said, THIS I agree with: “No player should be looked upon negatively for declining to opt out of a contract stipulation”. That is absolutely true, though I haven’t seen much criticism directed towards any players who have chosen to do so. Most fans and media pundits recognize that it is their negotiated right, and most of the derision is directed to the GM who negotiated the contract or traded for the player.
Furthermore, if there IS any disrespect directed towards the player, the blame for that doesn’t fall on the shoulders of the GM who asked, but the commentators from whom the criticism is originating.
GMs are hired to make their teams more competitive. If a player with a bad contract is on their roster that is hindering his ability to ice as good a team as possible, he wouldn’t be doing his job if he didn’t ask them to consider waiving their NMC. This is especially true when a new GM has to deal with the bad signings of their predecessor, which was the main reason for them getting fired.
Still, GMs need to use their brains and limit NMCs to much shorter durations.
Good discussions. Thanks for tuning in and sharing.