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Congratulations to the Pittsburgh Penguins on their Stanley Cup victory, and on cementing themselves as a cap-era dynasty team. Maybe this also cements Malkin as the 101^st best player of all time… but I digress. That was certainly a very entertaining final, and we never knew exactly who was going to show up, or what was coming next. Ultimately the top-tier forwards beat out the stellar defencemen, but the success from both sides goes to show that there is not just one winning recipe. So let’s keep that in mind and move on to some content that can be put towards winning a fantasy league next season, but first a few notes.

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For my take on the Dan Girardi buyout, you can check out last week’s Capped article. In short though, it was the lesser evil of all the options that New York had. It is not an ideal situation by any means, but it was the right decision in the long run. The money freed up will help retain their forward depth, and the ice time freed up will help Brady Skjei. If only they could also make Marc Staal magically disappear too…

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The expansion draft is just a week away, and already the news is coming hard and fast. The buyout period opens today (June 15^th), and two days from now the protected lists are due. These next couple of weeks are a big deal in terms of fantasy repercussions, but an even bigger shockwave will be sent through the salary cap world. Between buyouts expected from certain players with no movement clauses, as well as other expansion related moves, there is a lot of fallout to be accounted for. Keep checking back in to stay on top of everything because next week’s Capped article will be covering the Vegas expansion team with all the picks having been released the day before, so stay tuned!

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Looking back on a Capped article of old, in the middle of January, the 2017 RFA Defence Crop was discussed, and Shayne Gostisbehere (AKA Ghost) was the first one profiled. It was stated then that if Ghost signed for under $5 million then he would be a steal for that price. Well, as it so happens, he did just sign for under $5 million per season, and on a six-year contract no less! So right away we have our conclusion that he is a good player to own at this salary. If that piece of info was all you came here to find, then great, enjoy the rest of your Thursday. However, what we really want to find out is just how good is Ghost to own at this salary. It’s worth sticking around for.

The best way to analyze contracts is to find a comparable, and as soon as the terms of Ghost’s new deal were disclosed, the contract of Roman Josi from four years ago came to mind. Josi’s deal was signed after his second full season at the NHL level, and was worth $28 million over seven years (an average of $4 million a season for those of you that didn’t bring a calculator). Josi has since grown into a top defenceman in the NHL, and with three years still left on his current contract, is right now one of the best salary cap bargains in the league (both in real life and fantasy). Back when Josi signed his contract, it took up 6.22% of Nashville’s cap, Ghost’s matches up almost exactly at 6.16% of the Flyers cap for next season. As comparable as they may be, there are also some differences.

Ghost signed his contract after two years in the league, but the main difference is that at the time of signing, Josi was not the number one defencemen yet in Nashville. He grew into that role, unlike Ghost who has had the mantle of number one thrust upon him. It seems that Ghost still has some growing to do after struggling to find consistency throughout the season last year. That being said, fantasy-wise, his first two seasons have already both been better than what Josi did in his first two seasons.

Looking at the above table, we have a good comparison between a few different seasons of Josi’s and Ghost’s most recent season. Josi has been one of the more valuable defencemen in fantasy for the last few seasons, so his numbers should serve as a good benchmark for a number one or number two defenceman on your fantasy squad. Upon first glance, Ghost stacks up rather well with Josi’s stats, but there are some areas where he has some ground to make up. Ghost has time though, as offensively he is already ahead of where Josi was in his second year.

The two most obvious discrepancies are plus/minus and average time on ice (ATOI). That being said, plus/minus is not an individual statistic, and therefore not exactly indicative of personal success. The other is time on ice, where Ghost is not being given the responsibility of a top pairing defenceman just yet. The advantage of the lower ice time, is that there is much more room to grow. Adding three or four more minutes a game would be huge towards boosting certain stats such as hits, blocks, shots and penalty minutes (PIM).

Ghost managed 46 points in his first season (64 games) before taking a step back to 39 points this season. If Ghost can take another two steps forward after his step back last season, then his scoring will be up around the top 10 in the league for defencemen. At worst, Ghost plateaus at 40 points, making him a solid number two in fantasy leagues, and putting him in the 20-25 overall range. The bottom line is that offence is not a worry from the 24-year-old.

With offence accounted for, and room to grow in the peripherals, the only aspects holding the American blue liner back are opportunity, and help from his teammates. After a handful of healthy scratches last season, he seems primed to take a larger share of responsibility in Philly, on top of his steady offensive ice time. A bounce back year from top forwards Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek would also work wonders. The last point is to pay attention to Philadelphia’s goaltending solution. Filling the net with the right goalie could mean a positive rating for Gostisbehere, and less time fishing the puck out of his own net, means more time creating offence in the other end.

My final word here is BUY, before it’s too late.

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You can find me on twitter @alexdmaclean where I will be voicing my thoughts on cap related moves/signings such as this through the offseason, as well as providing other (mostly) hockey related tidbits and musings.