Capped: Analyzing the Vegas Golden Knights
Alexander MacLean
2017-06-22
The Vegas team selection was very entertaining, however the excitement was actually spread out over the course of the afternoon (if you were paying attention). The NHL really has to figure out how to deal with making events like this an actual reveal, and not having half of the Vegas team leak out through Twitter hours beforehand. Anyways, let’s get to the actual news.
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A lot of picks we saw coming, and none more so than Marc-Andre Fleury. Even though Pittsburgh ended up having to throw in an incentive, the move finally got made. Most of the trades that we saw completed had some similar qualities. For Vegas to take on a player with an undesirable contract with a few years remaining, they would get a high pick or a good prospect in return. Vegas had more salary cap room than they know what to do with, and most other teams had at least one player that they were willing to pay out the nose to move. It was a perfect match, and the fallout will really shift the landscape of spending this summer.
All that is going to end up happening, is that the teams that freed up cap space now have the ability to overpay someone else and end up right back where they started. What this means is that there are a lot more teams with money in their pockets to drive up the price on free agents. Players such as T.J. Oshie, Kevin Shattenkirk and Martin Hanzal are going to have bidding wars for them, driving the price much higher than where any fantasy owner is reasonably going to be excited about rostering them. This will only be exacerbated by the salary cap rise of $2 million for next year (from $73 million to $75 million). Steer clear of the big name free agents this year if you have the option.
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The actual makeup of the Golden Knights team is very interesting to look into. A good number of the forwards have higher contracts than what they may appear to be worth. This is especially true with Reilly Smith, who is signed through the 2021-22 season, and really took a step backwards this past season. If he is unable to regain his scoring touch, then his contract could become an anchor on a team trying very hard to move up in the standings. All in all though, Vegas’ wingers have both some scoring talent, some defensive prowess, as well as a nice mix of age and experience. The centres however will likely struggle against the depth of other Western conference teams at that position. This lends itself to the train of thought that we could see a lot of the offence being run through the defence instead.
Speaking of the defence, Shea Theodore looks to be the biggest beneficiary of the draft results, and could be handed the reins on the first power play as soon as the start of the season. Generally the rest of the defence core is more of a defensive set, so about the idea of creating a lot of the offence through the defence, maybe it’s not all that likely to come to pass (this is especially true with a rumour floating around that Colin Miller is being flipped to the Toronto Maple Leafs). What we can take from this is that offence may be hard to come by, but hits, blocks and penalty minutess may be a lot easier to find on Vegas than any other team.
The defence core for Vegas may have a very different look by next season though. There are only two defence currently on the Golden Knights roster under contract past this season. The two are Marc Methot (rumoured to be on the way out in a separate trade) and David Schlemko. These are not exactly the big name defenceman that a team needs to compete in this league.
Moving on to the goalies, we can assume that if Vegas is not playing a very offensive game, they are making an attempt to play a defensive system. Should this be the case, then it will be a boon for the value of goaltenders Fleury and Calvin Pickard. Fleury will likely see the majority of starts through the season, however Pickard is a very capable backup, and is coming off a very productive showing at the World Championships this spring. With a more talented and steady defence core in front of him than what he had in Colorado, Pickard’s value certainly gets a big boost.
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Now, we also need a moment to look back at the Jonathan Drouin contract that was slightly overshadowed by both his trade and the release of the Vegas selections. Drouin got money from the Canadiens that Tampa Bay was not willing to pay. It is a higher amount than we have seen most second contracts go, but not out of the normal realm for a former third overall pick. Now and in the future this deal should be fair market value.
On the other side, Tampa turned around and used up a bargain amount of that cap space to instead re-sign Peter Budaj for two years at just over $1 million per season. This is a very safe contract for a backup, especially one who showed so well in a career high 60 games played last year.
Erik Haula and Deryk Engelland were also signed to new contracts by the Golden Knights. Haula will be making $2.75 milion over the next three years, while Engelland took a pay cut on a one-year contract, and will be a bargain at a $1 million cost. Those hits and blocks can be very valuable in the right fantasy league. From Vegas’ perspective though he will slot in as a depth defenceman.
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On the flip side of the signings, we have the Marian Hossa news from yesterday. Hossa is being forced to miss the 2017-2018 season due to health concerns stemming from a skin allergy. It is a highly unfortunate circumstance, however health takes priority over hockey in the long run. Wishing Hossa the best with his health moving forward.
The fallout from him missing the season though means that Chicago does gain some valuable space under the salary cap. Chicago cannot put Hossa on the long-term injured reserve (LTIR) until the second game of the season, and will not accumulate space as the season goes on, so the relief is not as great as it may initially seem. That being said, it seems as though it is enough to allow Chicago to hold off on trading larger pieces. This is evidenced by the fact that the rumoured trade of Marcus Kruger to Vegas didn’t come to fruition last night.
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My final parting thought is that it gave me a small chuckle to see Vegas already has the second highest payroll in the NHL. This however will not last, as we will see with further trades on Thursday, plus the placement of Grabovski and Clarkson on the LTIR will clear up some more salary cap space.
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You can find me on twitter @alexdmaclean where I will be voicing my thoughts on the rest of the Vegas fallout, as well as providing other (mostly) hockey related tidbits and musings.
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Curious on where you guys stand on the Hossa situation. I know the league is evaluating the whole thing, but don’t you find his condition suspicious? Don’t get me wrong I hope it’s true and hope for Hossa to recover (if that’s even possible), but ending a career on such a weird note is.. weird.
There are some factors that, when put together, seem to point in the direction of something planned/orchestrated. However, when someone is dealing with a health issue like this, I won’t be speculating. It really isn’t our business when it comes down to it.