Rambings: Jordan Weal, Shea Theodore and deal analysis (June 23)

Neil Parker

2017-06-23

Jordan Weal - USA TODAY Sports Images

 

Jordan Weal is going to go Jonathan Marchessault on the NHL next season … if he lands in the right spot. A team should — and probably will — sign Weal to a modest salary and give him top-six minutes. In turn, Weal is going to score, a lot.

He posted a rock-solid 2.29 points per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season with 11 of his 12 points coming at even strength. Landing a power-play role will also help the talented scorer. Weal posted 56 goals and 186 points over 192 games through his final three seasons in the AHL, and for comparison, Marchessault posted 132 through his final 156 AHL contests.

Weal will need the right fit to thrive, but there should be a suitor out there willing to hand him the offensive role needed to succeed. As long as that happens he's going to reward his fantasy owners and provide a huge return on investment.

 

***

 

Mike talked up Shea Theodore in yesterday's ramblings, and noted the dust needs to settle with this roster before a true projection can be made for his fantasy outlook. I can already tell I'm more bullish than him, and probably most, though.

Theodore is easily the No. 1 offensive talent from that blue-line corps, and he's flashed tremendous upside and owns pedigree and a proven track record at the lower levels.

The Golden Knights aren't likely to win too many games, but they might be on par with the Canucks, Devils, Avalanche and other weaker teams. Las Vegas isn't going to be a fantasy wasteland, either. Although, there are probably going to be a lot of big minus-ratings. Still, it should put them in a lot of favorable game situations to pile up points in "garbage time."

There are going to be plenty of games where the Knights are down and out, and their opposition sits back on two- and three-goal leads and rolls four lines and all three defense pairs. Those are opportunities for offense, and the Knights might also see more backup goalies than competitive teams.

It might only add up to five points over the course of an entire season, but it's not all doom and gloom. Theodore has 50-point upside with a solid fantasy floor (30-35 points).

 

***

 

I've talked about Jordan Eberle already (here and here), and everything Mike discussed here, I'm on board with. Eberle will have to fall off the map entirely or get injured not to be lining up with John Tavares all season. The winger should flirt with 30 goals and 70 points, and Tavares might provide an uptick in goals playing with Eberle, too.

 

Ryan Strome should be able to breakout with Edmonton. The Oilers want to have a one-two punch of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl down the middle, and Strome is a capable middle-six winger right now. Strome might be a top-line winger at some point in his career, too. He should be able to score 20 goals and record 50 points flanking either of McDavid or Draisaitl.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins playing a third-line role allows Edmonton to roll out three solid lines, and if you haven't noticed, that's pretty important. It's been a long time since a top-heavy team without depth and secondary scoring went deep in the playoffs.

With all that said, Edmonton typically returns to rolling out McDavid and Draisaitl on the same line to catalyze offense, so there is no guarantee Strome sees consistent playing time with either star. It's the risk of chasing linemates, and he'll probably not be exempt from it without hitting the ground running and never looking back.

 

 

Before moving on from this trade, I just wanted to note a few talking points that came up while discussing the deal on Twitter.

I totally understand why Edmonton dealt Eberle, and even potentially "sold low," if that is even a legitimate thing in the NHL. Edmonton needed Eberle this spring, and he had a horrible playoff run. He was soft, he didn't generate high-danger scoring chances, and he is on the books for $6 million over the next two years. The Oiler brass felt they improved their team by dealing him for Ryan Strome and opening up additional cap space.

Following the 2014 season, and after Pittsburgh lost in the second round to the Rangers, the Penguins dealt James Neal to Nashville. Neal had two goals and two assists through those 13 playoffs games, but that deal was still widely criticized. How could Pittsburgh deal a winger that had just posted 88 goals and 178 points through 179 games over the previous three regular seasons?

The rest is history. Did Pittsburgh "sell low?"

 

Sometimes these deals blow up, but sometimes players just aren't the right fit for an organization going forward. If Edmonton could have got more for Jordan Eberle they would have. This is a team that was a win away from the Western Conference Finals, and Eberle had absolutely no impact during that second-round series, remember.

 

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Here are some quick notes on the two minor deals that went down Thursday.

 

David Schlemko is a serviceable defenseman that is mobile, can move the puck up ice effectively and has been able to move the possession needle. Montreal got him for free, too. It's a solid add.

However, the Montreal blue line has undergone significant upheaval in the past year, and Jeff Petry is currently the only Canadien defenseman with more than a season of experience with the team that's under contract. That's not a necessarily a negative, but historically, there is an adjustment period for teams that undergo a significant roster makeover.

It's just something to keep in mind, and if things don't gel for the Habs quickly, it could be a drain on Carey Price's fantasy upside.

 

The Trevor van Riemsdyk addition might prove more valuable off the ice than on it. Carolina is beefing up a core group of youngsters and adding another Stanley Cup champion to the roster is a nice grab.

There aren't many fantasy ripples, but it's becoming more and more clear that Ryan Murphy's time is running out in a hurry. The former first-round pick projects to battle with Klas Dahlbeck for playing time this fall, and that's if Haydn Fleury — or Jake Bean in a long shot — don’t bump them both out of the picture.

It's also very interesting long term because Noah Hanifin, van Riemsdyk, Brett Pesce, Jacob Slavin and Murphy are all restricted free agents at the end of the season, so there is a lot at stake for all of them as they try to seed themselves for their next contracts.

 

***

 

Make sure you don't miss the following:

 

Golden Knights Forward Breakdown

Golden Knights Defense and Goalie Breakdown

Expansion Draft: Western Conference

Expansion Draft: Eastern Conference 

Expansion Draft: Prospect Outlook

Salary Cap Look at Las Vegas

Eberle-Strome Deal

 

That's a lot of content, Dobberheads

 

 

9 Comments

  1. Dobber 2017-06-23 at 06:39

    Agree 100% on Weal
    Marchessault needed the Huberdeau injury for him to get the chance to thrive. Weal will probably need the same help. As you say ‘right fit’. I hope he picks his team wisely

    • Neil Parker 2017-06-23 at 09:42

      Back to Los Angeles to play with Jeff Carter or Anze Kopitar?

  2. Striker 2017-06-23 at 08:17

    There is only 1 team in the NHL that Vegas will be competing with next season & that’s Colorado for dead last & the right to secure the best odds in the lottery draft. Vancouver & NJ will have 20 more points min than Vegas in the standings when the season ends.

    Based on the returns Vegas has gotten for TvR; solid #5 Dman with top 4 potential, the last pick in the 2nd round; 62nd, & Schlemko, a 5th, these are terrible returns for both players moving any of the other Dman for anything of value is a concern. Surely Dhillon would have garnered more than a 5th round pick, that’s free. Even the 62nd pick for TvR has about a 10% chance of ever playing in the NHL.

    If these are the types of returns Vegas is going to get for these selections of Dman they erred in their selections. If they can’t sell these extra Dman then Theodore may well start the season in the minors as of the current 11 Dman on their roster only Theodore & Bischoff are waiver exempt & the business side of hockey will come into play.

    I would have thought Vegas had way more deals lined up coming out of the expansion draft. I expected the 8 to 10 side deals we saw as they were being rumored leading up to the expansion draft but I assume McPhee would have had more trades already worked out for the players he did draft. Only 2 prearranged?

    • Neil Parker 2017-06-23 at 08:55

      I’m not impressed, either. New Jersey and Vancouver are also really bad, though.

    • Rex Devereux 2017-06-23 at 10:02

      Big time. All that optimism around the team soured for me imo. Also the double standard on their expansion protection trades was bizarre. They still have a ton of nhl D who should conceivably play regular minutes next yeae that won’t in Vegas so there should be more trades to come.

  3. Ian Sharp 2017-06-23 at 09:33

    Great ramblings today. Thanks

  4. Rex Devereux 2017-06-23 at 10:00

    I believe the neal trade was bad for Pittsburgh. He is a stud. Just because a team does well without a former player doesn’t mean said player may have made the team even better.

    • Neil Parker 2017-06-23 at 10:22

      I don’t disagree, but with two Stanley Cups, it’s tough to argue with Pittsburgh’s approach.

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