Besides Jaromir Jagr, how well do forwards age?

Welcome to part two of three in of my series of columns to determine when players at certain positions peak. Last week I covered defensemen, and a few surprises and interesting tidbits came to light. I expect the same this week when attention shifts to forwards. But first I’ll start once again by briefly explaining what data I’ll use and why.

Gathering Data – Approaches and Challenges

The general and specific approaches are largely the same as last week’s column. I looked at the top 25 forward scorers from each season to determine the average age among them, and in turn that would provide useful food for thought on when a present day forward might peak. To account for scoring rate differences over the years, once again I went by scoring leaders as opposed to points scored.

Here too, for all seasons other than 2012-13 if someone played at least 40 games, and, based on projecting his scoring pace to a full 82 game schedule, would’ve finished in the top 15 in scoring, then I included his data in the analysis. Thus, for each season of data there’s information provided for 25 forwards, plus any Band-Aid Boys whose prorated total would’ve put them in the top 15, plus others if there were ties (i.e., if any forward beyond #25 on the list had the same number of points as #25).

Likewise I decided to go back to 1996-97 as well, which seemed far enough to allow meaningful data yet not so far as to enter a truly different era, and I still included everyone’s data (even those like Teemu Selanne, Martin St. Louis, Joe Sakic, and of course Jaromir Jagr, who defied the odds and played at a high fantasy level until each was quite old by hockey standards) since if I didn’t then it would open the door to all sorts of questions about where else to draw lines.

The Data

For each season (not including the canceled 2004-05 campaign) I’ve indicated the average age of the top 25+ scoring forwards, plus how many fell into each of six age brackets: teenagers, age 20 to 23, age 24 to 27, age 28 to 31, age 32 to 35, and age 36 or older.

Observations

As with defensemen, this data speaks pretty well for itself; but I’ll nevertheless go ahead and make a few notable observations and draw some possible conclusions, after first going over the averages. Plus I’ll highlight how the numbers stack up against what we saw last week with rearguards.

Dissecting the Averages, and Comparison to Defensemen

Overall, the “peak” age for a forward is 27 and nine months (i.e., 27.73), which is about six months younger than it was for defensemen (28.24). Yet if we focus only on the last six seasons, the averages are not only lower but also much closer – 27.25 for forwards versus 27.40 for defensemen – so keep that in mind. The main difference in averages for forwards versus d-men is the lower percentages of age 32+ players who were top scorers among forwards; specifically, based on these numbers 19% of top 25+ forward scorers would be expected to be age 32+, compared to 24% for defensemen. Given this, it’s not very surprising to learn…….

Older Forwards Are Less Likely to be Productive Compared to Younger Forwards

For forwards, there was more representation in the age 20-23 range than the 32-35 range, while it was the opposite for defensemen. And whereas we saw last week that during this 20-season stretch there were the exact same number of defensemen (13) who posted 45+ points at least four separate times within their 30s versus in their 20s, that’s not even remotely the case for forwards. Instead, there were 14 forwards who tallied 70+ points (a threshold chosen since it seemed comparable to 45+ points for defensemen) four or more times in their 30s, which was more than doubled by the 35 who did so at least four times in their 20s. The takeaways are don’t stay as attached to scoring forwards as they get more and more grey in their beards, and once a forward in his 20s has hit the 70+ point mark a couple of times, he’s a good bet to continue to do so.

There are More High Scoring Forward Band-Aid Boys Than Defensemen, but Less So Lately

In last week’s column I noted that each season there were zero to four Band-Aid Boys defensemen who played 40+ games with a scoring rate good enough, over a projected 82 game season, to have landed in the top 15 scoring rearguards for that season but who fell short due to injury/injuries costing them too many games. In terms of forwards, the number ranged from zero (in just the 2009-10 season) to as high as nine (in 2000-01); and eight of these 20 seasons saw at least four forward Band-Aid Boys meet the criteria, with half of the eight seasons coming 2001-02 or earlier. Plus, from 1996-97 through 2006-07 there were never less than two forward Band-Aid Boys who met the criteria in each season. I guess the adage of defensemen being more likely to tough through injuries might be true after all?

There Was More Wide Variation from Average for Forwards Than for Defensemen

In the three most populated age ranges (i.e., 20-23, 24-27, 28-31) there were more seasons of wide variation from average among d-men than forwards, where a” wide variation from average” is defined as being two age years more or two age years less for a specific season as compared to the 20-year average. In the 20-23 age range, there was a wide variation from average for forwards in eight seasons, compared to just four seasons for defensemen, while for ages 24-27 there was a wide variation from average for forwards of ten seasons versus 13 for defensemen, and for ages 28-31 the number of wide variations from average for forwards totaled just two seasons, as compared to six for defensemen.

Far More Age 32+ Defensemen Were Top Scorers Than Age 32+ Forwards

In these 20 seasons, a total of 113 age 32+ forwards were in the top 25+ forward scorers, compared to 135 age 32+ d-men. Of the 113, only 25 (i.e., 22.1%) finished within the top 10, versus 61 of 135 d-men (i.e., 45.2%). In other words, the age 32+ forwards who fell within the top 25+ were far more often in the 11-25+ range, whereas nearly as many age 32+ d-men were within the top 10 as in spots 11-25+.

Also, five seasons saw no age 32+ forwards in the top 10, while no seasons had zero age 32+ d-men in the top 10. Beyond that, only twice were there more than two forwards in the top 10 for a season, and in both cases there were only three. By comparison, there were three seasons when half the top 10 scoring d-men were age 32+, and only six seasons where there were fewer than three in the top 10.

All this having been said, recent trends suggest older players are now producing less. Case in point – in each of the last four seasons there was only one age 32+ defensemen in the top 10 d-man scorers, and there was either one or none among the top 10 forwards.

Teenage Forwards Have a Lower Likelihood of Immediate Fantasy Success

Last week I pointed out that teenage defensemen actually did well when they played 75+ games. That’s far less so for forwards, since in these 20 seasons there was a total of 52 instances of a teen forward playing 75+ games, yet only six – two of which came last season – finishing among the top 25+ scorers. Moreover, only 31 of the 52 posted 40+ points in their teen season(s), and only 11 (including two from last season) had 60+ points. Thus, teen forwards are far more of a fantasy crapshoot.

Overall Conclusions about Forwards (and Defensemen)

Not surprisingly, top scorers among both forwards and d-men are mainly those ages 20-32, with more coming from those age 32+ than from teens. Recent trends suggest older skaters are less likely to be among top scorers as compared to even a few years ago, although the net effect is the average ages for top scorers is only a year or so less than the 20-season average. There used to be far more high scoring Band-Aid Boy forwards as compared to rearguards, but the numbers are getting a bit closer of late, with the result being usually only a couple of band-aid boys having a scoring pace that would’ve – but for them missing up to 42 games – likely put them in the top 15 d-man/forward scorers for that season.

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That takes care of the research on peak ages for skaters. In my next column I’ll conclude this series by taking a rare Cage Match look at goalies, so be sure to come back for that. Until then, keep up your offseason work!