Free Agency, Last Call for Yakupov? Plus more…

One goalie situation to watch come July 1 is that of the Philadelphia Flyers. About a month before the season finished, the Flyers re-signed Michal Neuvirth to a two-year contract. As it turned out, they signed him because they needed a goalie to protect for the expansion draft. That goalie was Anthony Stolarz, who impressed during his brief time with the Flyers (7 GP, 2.07 GAA, .928 SV%).

You might think that the Flyers would then go with a Neuvirth/Stolarz combo, but that may not be the case. There are a few established free agents that could be brought in to compete, including Jonathan Bernier, Keith Kinkaid, Ryan Miller, Brian Elliott, or Mike Condon. Don’t rule out Steve Mason being brought back either, which would bring the Flyers back to where they were before. 
 

.@NHLFlyers looking for a goalie in a lean free-agent market https://t.co/LdnKMuaB0j via @phillysport

— Sam Carchidi (@BroadStBull) June 28, 2017

That means in spite of an up-and-coming defense, any Flyers’ goalie in fantasy would likely be best served as a third goalie in a 12-team league. That is unless one goalie really stands on his head in 2017-18. Carter Hart, who is at least a couple years away, has the ability to put this goaltending debate to bed once he is NHL-ready (1.99 GAA in the WHL last season). But as in true Flyers’ fashion, Felix Sandstrom could push him and make this into yet another goalie controversy. In the present, though, it’s going to be two or three 1A-type goalies for the Flyers.

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Take a look at a free agency list. Look way down, and you’ll see the name of a former first overall pick. That’s right, Nail Yakupov is there for the taking.

Before we examine Yakupov’s season, there’s two things we can learn from Yakupov, one past and one future: 1) Even first overall picks don’t always pan out, and 2) Since he’s only 23, there’s still time for him to make something out of his NHL career.
 

5 years ago Nail Yakupov & Mikhail Grigorenko were considered the 2 "best" players in the draft. Today they didn't get qualifying offers.

— Bill Hoppe (@BillHoppeNHL) June 27, 2017

Yakupov scored just nine points (3g-6a) in 40 games last season with the Blues. For a time, he was given an opportunity in Edmonton with Connor McDavid. But was he given much of a chance in his brief time in St. Lou?

Here are his most frequent line combinations from the past season:

28.3% BERGLUND,PATRIK – JASKIN,DMITRIJ – YAKUPOV,NAIL

18.9% LEHTERA,JORI – TARASENKO,VLADIMIR – YAKUPOV,NAIL

18.6% BARBASHEV,IVAN – SANFORD,ZACH – YAKUPOV,NAIL

17.8% BERGLUND,PATRIK – FABBRI,ROBBY – YAKUPOV,NAIL

16.5% STASTNY,PAUL – STEEN,ALEXANDER – YAKUPOV,NAIL

There was quite a bit of line juggling, but there was also no extended time with someone who doesn’t score very often (like Ryan Reaves, for instance). The Blues had one of the league’s better power plays and are fairly deep up front, so there was virtually no power-play time left over (an average of 17 seconds per game). So he lost value there compared to his Edmonton days, when he received around two minutes of power-play time per game.

I’m predicting that Yakupov ends up signing somewhere, but on a “prove it” contract of one year at around $1 million. From all accounts he has a good attitude, but he simply hasn’t been able to figure out the NHL. Why not take a chance if the cap hit and the term are minimal?

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To me, the winner of free agency isn’t the team that signs the best available player. It’s the team that receives the most bang for its buck with the player that it signs. That player could well be Jordan Weal, who scored eight goals and 12 points in just 23 games last season. Because of the lack of NHL games that he has played at his age (25 years), Weal becomes a UFA in spite of his lack of career games played.

North Vancouver native Weal is believed to be visiting with the Canucks. With the lack of true scoring options and a long-term need for centers once Henrik Sedin retires (one year left on his contract), Weal would have a better opportunity in Vancouver than he would have on most teams.

Weal has been a point-per-game scorer over his past three seasons in the AHL. You’d think the Flyers would make room for that, but they have a logjam at center (noted in the Brayden Schenn trade breakdown). So I really don’t think he’s going back to Philly, especially with around a dozen teams knocking on the door.

But if he returns to Philly, Sam Carchidi projects Weal to be a winger on the third line with Sean Couturier at center and Valtteri Filppula also on the wing. And in case you’re wondering about Nolan Patrick, Carchidi has him centering the second line.

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US college free agent and Edmonton native Spencer Foo has made his decision. Naturally, it’s Calgary. If you’re not familiar with Foo, he scored 62 points (26g-36a) in just 38 games with Union College this past season. If you want to get a good idea as to where Foo might fit in on the Flames, you can check out this breakdown over at SB Nation’s Flames blog Matchsticks & Gasoline. The Flames have a need on the right side, so Foo seems to be a great fit on the Flames. There’s some fantasy upside here.

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Here’s the forum thread for the Same Night Tool. This spreadsheet could be very helpful to you if you are in a draft and undecided between two players. Maybe pick the one that has fewer scheduling conflicts compared to your other players? It can also help you with waiver-wire pickups to stack your starts during a set scoring period. Some great work here.

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Poll question time. I apologize for not having this one up sooner, as it popped into my head just as I was about to start typing. This is another one of the “scenario” variety.
 

Would you accept a keeper league trade for a pending free agent without knowing what team he will play for?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) June 28, 2017

I bring this up because in the past couple days, I have received two fantasy questions about trade offers involving UFAs-to-be. I won’t say which players in order to protect the identities of those asking, but I will say one question involved a forward and another a goalie. In both cases, I was actually surprised that these names were being discussed at all. So I wanted to ask if you were as surprised as I was.

The thing is, a player’s role can vary depending on which team he signs with – especially in net. Although the current group of free agent goalies are not elite, we simply don’t know whether a goalie is going to be the starter, the backup, or in a true timeshare situation. Although we can’t know for sure until the season starts, being a starter versus being a backup represents a huge swing in value.

Power-play time is another determining factor. A player might sign with a team that is loading up for a championship, but that may not necessarily be good for his value. He may have been PP1 on his old team but is PP2 on the new one. Or PP2 on the old team and running on fumes on the new one. Or vice-versa, of course. Again, we won’t know for sure until the games are played. But more information helps us make better decisions.

What about deeper leaguers that are looking at fringe free agents? We may not know whether certain players will get signed at all in the next little while. They could end up going on a PTO. Or playing in Europe. We know that Kevin Shattenkirk will sign somewhere, but what about the aforementioned Yakupov? There are leagues deep enough for his signing to matter.

But there is one reason that I would accept a trade for one of my pending UFAs: If the other owner is willing to overpay using a best-case scenario. :)

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Elliotte Friedman's latest 30 Thoughts, which includes some insight as to where free agents could land.

For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.