Kevin gives us a detailed breakdown as to what the Golden Knights' roster will look like.

Leading up to the NHL Entry and Expansion Drafts we examined each existing Western Conference squad’s offseason priorities, emphasizing points-only pool production with some peripheral considerations and highlighting potential breakout candidates. We started in the cellar points-wise and moved up each week, reaching Chicago and conference champs Nashville right after the finals.

With the dual drafts and a few trades and signings providing them players, let’s look at the Knights and their needs.

If Vegas played tonight they’d have a weird-looking line-up, mostly due to a lack of right defensemen and wings, and a surplus of centers and left rearguards. I think they’d field something like this:    

Not a lot of firepower other than perhaps the top line here, but there’s months to tinker. The defense is deeper than the front lines and with Fleury in net we could see some L.A. King/N.J. Devil-style low-scoring games to arouse T-Mobile Arena and the adjoining Strip. Additional Knight blueliners could be swapped, which might fetch more offense while top-draftees Cody Glass, Nick Suzuki and Erik Brännström marinate along with whomever they select in that deep 2018 Entry Draft.

After several weekend transactions Vegas possesses approximately $9M in cap space, and will disburse some of that if they re-sign RFAs Lindberg, Schmidt, once-time top forward prospect Teemu Pulkkinen, Toronto Marlies star wing Brendan Leipsic and ex-Oiler/Islander/Bakersfield Condor d-man Griffin Reinhart. They also have $10.25M tied up in long-term IR candidates David Clarkson and Mikhail Grabovski. If designated as such, they gain a good amount of cap room during the regular campaign, but it doesn’t count in the off-season.

Not sure that presages loads of future movement. Maybe a few key signings and trades, but as for what we know now…

Forwards

James Neal is one of Vegas’ most valued proven commodities. With at least 21 goals in each of the last nine campaigns, an 81-point/40-goal year on his resume, a 31-goal/27-assist 2015-16 in the recent past, and tons of postseason experience, after wearing the “A” for three years in Nashville he’ll be counted on for stability and leadership.

Mostly a second-line staple last year for the Predators, he also spent 44.1% of his 5×5 ice time skating alongside Ryan Johansen and one of either Filip Forsberg or Viktor Arvidsson from their dynamite top line, and slightly more (44.9%) on the power play with all three. Add solid 52.15% possession numbers and you have a versatile wing, with experience on the right and left featuring a left-handed shot, much Knight offense will revolve around.

Surprisingly expansion-exposed, diminutive and sharp-skating playmaker Jonathan Marchessault blasted out of the gate with now-Vegas head coach Gerard Gallant’s Florida Panthers, ultimately landing 11 goals before New Year’s Day. Often thriving to the left of Jaromir Jagr as a right-hander, the 26-year-old, long-time AHL staple with only 49 previous NHL games under his belt led the Panthers with 30 goals, finishing third on the squad in points with 51 despite landing 14^th on the team in average ice-time per game (16:54) and respectable (51.70%) possession numbers. He also played on their two most frequent power play units, and should contribute to the Knights’ top man-advantage combo. 

Considering Gallant’s late November firing, strange and abundant Florida front office moves, and an overall weird campaign down there, playing with a first-year team shouldn’t faze Marchessault. It lead to decreased stats which, as he’s entering a contract year can’t be his favorite situation, but the combination of ex-coach, looming free agency, and a competitive fire that lent interest to a lackluster Sunrise squad could produce reasonable results.  

The top-line wildcard is Vadim Shipachyov. New to the NHL, the 30-year old pivot is an eight-year KHL vet who served as captain and assistant captain for SKA St. Petersburg over the past three. Vegas hopes his 137 goals and 275 assists in 445 contests (0.92 PPG) in Russia’s best league, and 70 points in 93 games of international play translate to Knight points. Past linemates include Ilya Kovalchuk, Artemi Panarin and Pavel Datsyuk, so he’s worked with other NHL success stories. While he might start slow along with the rest of the franchise, ultimately he’ll do well. Shipachyov’s 76 points (26 G, 50 A) in 50 contests placed third in the KHL last year.

Vegas acquired the rights another piece of the Shipachyov and new Panther Yevgeny Dadonov’s former prolific KHL line, soon 25-year-old Nikita Gusev, as part of the agreement to take Jason Garrison off the Lightning’s hands. Tampa selected him 202nd overall in 2012. McPhee apparently loves how all three worked together and is undeterred by his contract running through next season, as well as rumors that he will sign an extension with SKA. Gusev’s 24-goal, 47-assist, 74-point campaign was good for the fourth-most points in the KHL last year.

From a poolie perspective Neal, Marchessault and Shipachyov seem your best shots at points-only production in this inaugural VGK year.

Likely middle-six wings Reilly Smith, with two 50-point seasons in his last four, again sporting that Florida connection; and David Perron, just three years removed from 28 goals and 29 assists with Edmonton and coming off a 46-point campaign, may be worth deep-league, late round or eventual waiver-wire pickups. They too both have experience at the right and left flanks: Perron with a right-handed shot; Smith, a left.

Cody Eakin, coming off a cursed year in Dallas may too be a bounce-back candidate, and William Karlsson might fulfill his promise, but rare goals will become rarer as we reach deeper.

Two-time Stanley Cup winner Marcus Kruger will be a valuable component, particularly on the penalty kill, and club leader with strong possession and defense zone start numbers that don’t translate to fantasy points. He’s also rumored to be flipped to a contender before long, so stay tuned. Tomas Hyka, one of the few right wings on the current roster, showed a great deal of offensive promise in the Czech leagues, and Alex Tuch is a prospect to watch that Vegas seems to think highly of, but after a summer of roster refinement they’ll both likely start the year with AHL Chicago.

Eyeball Vegas for sneaky multi-category contributions. Erik Haula’s 2016-17 53.9% faceoff win percentage (I know I have him at left wing above, but he’ll likely log lots of center minutes too) bodes future dividends. William Carrier’s 2.7 hits per game last year, 13^th among forwards playing at least half the year’s contests, could also increase along with playing time.

Defense

Maybe they collected too many defensemen. Particularly left-handed defensemen as Vegas-resident Deryk Engelland and Colin Miller are the only right-handed rearguards on the roster with NHL experience, although lefty ex-Devil Jon Merrill has played on the right side and newly-signed Chris Castro and his right shot have served at right-d for parts of the last five AHL campaigns. Makes it tough to prognosticate pairings, but not everyone on the opening night ice is yet in Knights gold.

While many expected them to stock up on goalies, as swap-bait if for nothing else, Vegas left Antti Raanta, Philipp Grubauer and Petr Mrazek alone, stockpiling defensemen instead. They pedaled Marc Methot, Trevor van Riemsdyk and David Schlemko for picks, but still face a blue line glut. They also cashed in on Alexei Emelin’s value over the weekend, swapping him to Nashville for a third-round selection in 2018. With many names now available on the free agent market, some better and many about equal to those the Knights might dangle, their trade value may go down.

Regardless, they have a possibly tradable surplus of third-pairing candidates including Clayton Stoner, Luca Sbisa, and Brad Hunt not listed above.

With slim pickins on the right, if the game is tonight Engelland gets top pairing. The 35-year-old journeyman surprised in Calgary last year with inspired play, and multi-cat poolies liked his well-rounded 135 hits, 134 blocks and 85 PIM, but the fancy stats could be better at 46.67% Corsi for and 47.62% goals for. I like him as a second pairing on this squad but other than forward, a right-handed defenseman (one that can score would be a big bonus) seems the most important area for McPhee to fortify through free agency and elsewhere.

The real prize is Shea Theodore who turns 22 prior to the opener, and finished second to Cam Fowler among Duck defensemen in postseason scoring. His defensive prowess is still developing at the NHL level, but he moves the puck well, can score and has dangerous power play potential. While his totals may not impress in this initial Vegas campaign his keeper league future is bright.

Offensive-oriented puck-mover Nate Schmidt deserves a second pairing, especially after his smooth-skating postseason work and strong possession play. Monitor how he does given more minutes than Washington had to offer. He’s also a trade candidate given the right returning package.

Jason Garrison hasn’t looked good over the past few Tampa Bay years. His history with the Lightning is nice, but it’s history. He’s still big and might be called upon to rekindle some past power play magic, but those 48.53% possession and 42.47% goals-for percentages aren’t promising signs.

Goalies

Marc-Andre Fleury and Calvin Pickard are a solid duo. Fleury gives them credibility, still a great deal of skill and a “face of the franchise” for the new market. Pickard has promise and talent as a backup with starting experience, albeit on that awful Avalanche squad last year. With that behind him, Vegas will see what he can do as the eventual heir-apparent or go-to should Fleury lose his touch.

From a fantasy perspective, Fleury is worth a roster spot at this valuable position. Unless you have some space to burn on backup goalies for bad teams, Pickard isn’t.

Overall

If they want to win games right away and better entertain fans, increasing forward scoring and adding a quality right defenseman would be helpful.

The free agent market has some candidates. Would Radulov enjoy Vegas? Well, yeah. And they are targeting KHL imports. Big price tag there without tons of cap space. Unlikely I think, but interesting to consider. If age doesn’t matter and name appeal’s the priority, Jagr’s another headline-grabber and Shane Doan might eat into that Coyote fan base.

More logically they can choose one or two from the mid-level range if they so desire – the pool dried up significantly in the first hour of free agency. Thomas Vanek? On defense there isn’t much out there on the right side that isn’t too grey. Maybe Cody Franson? We’ll see how the summer unfolds.

Will Vegas finish better than Colorado? Compared to last year’s 22-win version, maybe. Up against whatever this year’s Avalanche bring? I don’t think so. Will they place best among inaugural-year expansion teams since 1967’s league–doubling mega-growth? That’d be tough. The title belongs to the 1993 Panthers with a barely-below .500 record of 33-34-17. I don’t think they’ll be the eight-win, 67-loss 1974 Washington Capitals either though. I’ll peg them closest to the 1970 Canucks and their 24-46-8 record in a 78-game season.               

They follow the recipe of semi-success utilized by Florida and others with a solid veteran goaltender. John Vanbiesbrouck drove the Panthers to the Stanley Cup Finals in three years. Minnesota’s Manny Fernandez helped lead the Wild to the 2003 Western Conference Finals, also in their third campaign. With the right Knights moves and prospect development they might sniff the playoffs by then, but a deep run so early in their history seems improbable.

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