Ramblings: Thoughts on Marleau, Yakupov, Radulov and cheap but solid signings, (July 05)

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I was just giving kudos to the Maple Leafs for an excellent July 1^st. At this point my advice to NHL GM’s is to just sign nobody except depth players and fill out your AHL team. That’s what’s best. I don’t think there’s a single deal over the $2 million mark that I’m happy with. And I don’t think there’s a single deal with length over two years that I would 100% guarantee won’t end in a buyout or salary dump. That’s not how you do business. When you look at the 20 biggest contracts and any hardcore fan can say that 12 of them will be bought out, buried in the minors or traded in a salary dump (i.e. they either eat some of the salary or they trade a pick or prospect to get the other team to take the contract). Fans know this, but GM’s…don’t?

Anyway, I digress. I was just giving kudos to the Leafs when…Marleau happened. This is the worst contract of the summer. If they didn’t sign him, he’s eventually sign a two-year deal elsewhere for $5 million total. He had no leverage and whatever leverage he convinced the Leafs that he had, he didn’t actually have. The “veteran leadership” or the “spend the money on a vet while the kids are on ELCs” explanation is crap because they could have signed Marleau for half that number. Leave it on the table and he would have come crawling back in three weeks.

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Silly season. Is Joe Thornton worth $8 million for one season? Dan Girardi gets $6 million over two years?

My favorite signings:

1. Scott Hartnell to Nashville

2. Mike Cammalleri to Los Angeles

3. Beau Bennett to St. Louis

4. Alexander Burmistrov to Vancouver

What do these signings have in common? Each are under $1.5 million, are low risk with a likely reward.

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I also loved the depth player signings. When a team helps out the AHL squad but at the same time sign an intriguing player who used to be highly-touted and may still have a bit of upside. Michael Sgarbossa to Winnipeg for $650k, Ty Rattie to Edmonton for $700k, Brad Hunt to Vegas for $650k, Ryan Murphy to Minnesota for $700k, Seth Griffith to Buffalo for $650k, Kenny Agostino to Boston for $875k, and Niklas Svedberg to Minnesota for $700k. I’d bet that at least one of these players make some kind of NHL impact for at least a couple of months of the season.

If I was GM, these are the moves I would make. The cheap low-risk moves and the strong AHL signings. That’s all free-agent frenzy day would be to me. I would not take part in the “big” (I use the term loosely) name bidding wars. And later, when the other idiot GMs come crawling to me to help them with their cap space I can then swipe their good young players from them.

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From
Niemi –> Bishop
Eakin –> Hanzal
Sharp –> Radulov
add Methot who pushes Oleksiak to press box
Did any team improve more than Dallas?

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) July 3, 2017

So which team improved more than Dallas? Most people responded to this tweet agreeing that Dallas takes the prize. But there were a few other suggestions. Calgary was the most common one, but I got a few Arizona votes and New Jersey too. Some joked “Vegas” and I have to agree – they went from nothing to a full NHL team in just two weeks. Another thing pointed out was the coaching change, and how Ken Hitchcock will upgrade Lindy Ruff. And that’s bang on because say what you want about Hitchcock, his first year with a new team is always dynamite.

I can’t give the prize to Calgary. I love what they did, but bottom line is goaltending. I don’t see Mike Smith as an upgrade to Brian Elliott. At least the Elliott who showed up in the second half. Whereas upgrading Kari Lehtonen to Ben Bishop? That’s an incredible leap. But I do love what the Flames did when they brought in Travis Hamonic and re-signing Stone? Check this out:

Mark Giordano                 Travis Hamonic

TJ. Brodie                            Dougie Hamilton             

???                                         Michael Stone                  

And if Rasmus Andersson is ready to make the jump in a bottom-pairing role, these six defensemen will be the envy of the league. And three of them are righties? Wow!

As for Arizona, well they upgraded in net with Antti Raanta, added Derek Stepan and Niklas Hjalmarsson, plus the underrated move of acquiring Nick Cousins who I think slots in nicely on the third line. Not to mention having Clayton Keller for the full season. The Coyotes improved in leaps and bounds.

The Devils add Nico Hischier, Marcus Johansson, Mirco Mueller and Brian Boyle. The depth up front is now “NHL depth” instead of “AHL depth”. They’re still smarting on the back end though.

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When I mentioned Hitchcock’s first year, I was reminded that Randy Carlyle just completed said first year. Remember, last year I said that I suspected he would take a rather weak Anaheim team (as I had judged them at the time) and will get them into the playoffs and they could surprise. But that after his first-year impact, he would start to lose the room. Step 1 has happened, now for Step 2 – losing the room. Look for Anaheim to struggle and be a bubble playoff team. And then in 2018-19 he will completely lose the room and the Ducks will bomb. That’s just his M.O. – pretty much what he’s done historically.

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If Radulov clicks with Jamie Benn and Tyler Seguin, he could top 80 points. He didn’t have anywhere near that kind of talent to play with in Montreal.

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I think a changing of the guard is here for the Western Conference. I think the Sharks may finally be on their way out, and Anaheim will struggle. Chicago is finally no longer the best team in the West. Meanwhile, the Flames are stronger while the Jets and Stars are suddenly right in the playoff mix. If Winnipeg and Dallas get in, then who is out? My vote is San Jose, who only need to drop five points in the standings to be out. Will Anaheim slide enough to miss? St. Louis (is Brayden Schenn enough)? Nashville barely got in but after such a strong playoff can they turn around and miss the postseason altogether? Picking a second team to miss is tough.

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I love Yakupov in Colorado. He’s in a situation where the team desperately needs another star and he has the potential to be one. So they will play the hell out of him with ideal linemates. He didn’t get much of that in St. Louis. He got it in Edmonton, but the difference now is that he’s 23. It’s now or never for him, and Colorado is one of about three of four teams where I really like the fit. I think he beats his career high of 33 points this year and is an upgrade to Mikhail Grigorenko.

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The Caps still need to sign six players for under a million bucks each, so you’re gonna see a few Devante Smith-Pelly type deals. They needed to buy out Brooks Orpik and not sign TJ Oshie. Losing Marcus Johansson when he’s entering his prime is one of the biggest mistakes of the offseason. But because Johansson and Justin Williams are gone, it is a huge opportunity to put up good numbers if you’re Brett Connolly or Andre Burakovsky. They stand to gain the most.

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My last Ramblings was on May 17^th and I announced that we were on the new server. On May 19^th my world was rocked with the diagnosis of cancer. Impeccable timing, right? By the way, we’re still on the new server but the sites have not been optimized yet. My programmer took a couple of weeks off. But that's in the pipeline.

This will be my last Ramblings for the summer. I’ll still be posting Rankings and working hard on the Fantasy Guide. But as I get further into chemo treatments it won’t be as easy for me to write these Ramblings. Ian is away on vacation and I wanted to jump back in and do one more Ramblings so I’m covering him for today.

Things are moving quickly as I speed towards a stem cell transplant. If you want to stay updated on my progress feel free to follow me on Facebook or add me as a friend. I post updates there every week or two as to how I’m feeling and what’s next. And I’ll be around in the Forum too.

Thanks for your support!