Ramblings: Looking East to the Atlantic Division
Neil Parker
2017-07-11
The next stop on the offseason carousel is the Atlantic Division.
Thanks for all the feedback through the previous two ramblings. The discussions have been helpful for me, and hopefully to all. It's important to bounce ideas back and forth, and the feedback is noted.
Hit the comments with the oversights.
Who's missing in this lay of land?
Considering the Bruins didn't really lean on Colin Miller last season, and they made very minor moves during free agency, there doesn't project to be much of a fantasy shakeup entering the season.
Charlie McAvoy is likely going to be reached for in most fantasy settings, and the rigors of an 82-game schedule usually take their toll on first-year NCAA products. However, there is no doubt that he's an upgrade for the Boston blue line as a top- or second-pair defender.
Up front, Boston needs a winger — and maybe two — to slot into a top-six role. Frank Vatrano and Ryan Spooner are in-house options that haven't completely made that jump. In the lower ranks, Anders Bjork, Zach Senyshyn, Jake DeBrusk, Peter Cehlarik, Danton Heinen and Jakob Forsbacka-Karlsson are all positioning themselves to be future Bruins. However, none of the youngsters stand out as an immediate fix. There are juicy fantasy spots available for the taking, so Boston's depth chart is worth keeping tabs on leading into the season and throughout.
Tuukka Rask's posted a below-average .915 save percentage for the second consecutive season. It's time to shuffle him down into the No. 2-goalie range for good, right?
Things are coming together for Buffalo. To start, Robin Lehner owns a .921 save percentage since joining the Sabres, and he's just entering his prime and age-26 campaign this fall. He's underrated.
The defense corps received nice reinforcements in Marco Scandella and Nathan Beaulieu, too. So, Buffalo shouldn't be as easy to score on in 2017-18.
Up front, the Sabres should generate more offense, too. Jack Eichel and Ryan O'Reilly form an admirable one-two punch up the middle, and there is the forward depth to roll out three scoring lines. Kyle Okposo, Evander Kane, Jason Pominville, Sam Reinhart, Alexander Nylander, Matt Moulson and Benoit Pouliot can all mix and match to give Buffalo plenty of options. Additionally, Johan Larsson, Zemgus Girgensons, Nicholas Baptiste and Hudson Fasching are all capable of moving the offensive needle to varying degrees. There are a lot of moving pieces here, and a lot of talent. 2017 first-round selection Casey Mittelstadt only adds to the abundance of riches.
The issue with Detroit is that Tomas Tatar and Gustav Nyquist haven't ascended to being go-to scorers, and despite still posting solid numbers, Henrik Zetterberg isn’t capable of carrying a team on his shoulders. Anthony Mantha and Dylan Larkin are encouraging as the next wave of talent, but is either going to become a team-leading star?
Obviously, there is also the inept blue line. Mike Green showed signs early but finished with just 12 points through 31 second-half games, and his 11.2 shooting percentage is unsustainably high. Trevor Daley is a nice addition, but it's not really a sizeable gain because he pushes a youngster out of the lineup. Slow-footed Jonathan Ericsson, Danny DeKeyser and Niklas Kronwall are still going to receive too many minutes, which will likely come at the expense of Xavier Ouellet and/or Nick Jensen.
Petr Mrazek is talented enough to be a strong fantasy asset and steal games for Detroit, but he took a major step backward in 2016-17. Jimmy Howard had a throwback season last year with a .927 save percentage and 2.10 GAA, but he only went 10-11-1, which affirms how bad the Red Wings were.
Detroit does have a few intriguing pieces pushing for NHL duty in Tyler Bertuzzi, Evgeny Svechnikov, Axel Holmstrom, Martin Frk and Robbie Russo, but there are a lot of high-priced players clogging the depth chart.
Perhaps no team in the league has had a more puzzling calendar year than Florida. Yet, the Panthers enter 2017-18 with high-end forward talent, a strong blue line and two starting goaltenders. Additionally, they still have $10 in cap space to bolster the roster.
First, the losses of Jonathan Marchessault, Jussi Jokinen and Jaromir Jagr (assuming he doesn't return) are significant. But there are still plenty of strong offensive pieces in place with Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov, Vincent Trocheck, Nick Bjugstad, Evgeni Dadonov and Radim Vrbata in place. Denis Malgin, Jayce Hawryluk and even 2017 first-round selection Owen Tippett could also all push for a spot on a scoring line. The remaining free-agent pool of scorers is shallow, but bringing back Jagr, Thomas Vanek and/or Jiri Hudler wouldn't be the worst fliers. P.A. Parenteau is another option.
Regardless of the question marks up front, it's a set-and-forget defense corps and goalie tandem. Aaron Ekblad, Keith Yandle, Jason Demers, Michael Matheson, Mark Pysyk and Alex Petrovic are a solid group, and Mackenzie Weegar also waits in the wings. Roberto Luongo and James Reimer are a top one-two punch in the league, too.
Was there a worse offseason than what the Canadiens attempted to accomplish?
The blue line probably won't be as bad as it looks on paper, and Carey Price is going to win them a lot of games on his own, but offensively, this has to be one of the worst top-six attacks in the league.
Brendan Gallagher took a sizeable step backward last year, and Alex Galchenyuk has probably had his development hindered by his usage over the past few seasons. Considering those are two of the best forwards on the roster, it's a alarming that there are clear question marks. Max Pacioretty is a high-end scorer, and Jonathan Drouin certainly has the potential to be an elite point producer, but that's it.
Paul Byron had a nice offensive showing in 2016-17, and both Artturi Lehkonen and Phillip Danault have nice upside as secondary scorers. Ales Hemsky could have a throwback season in store, too. Maybe Nikita Scherbak or Charles Hudon make a splash? But when it's all said and done, this might be the worst forward group in the division.
It's also worth noting that Price struggled down the stretch with a mediocre .915 save percentage in the second half.
Is Montreal even a playoff team?
The Senators return nearly an identical roster to their club that went to the Eastern Conference finals this spring. The notable absence is Marc Methot, but with Thomas Chabot likely to receive a top-four gig, the loss of Methot might be hardly noticed. Additionally, Ben Harpur and Fredrik Claesson could help bolster the blue line with larger roles in 2017-18.
Up front, while the Sens lack star power, they do have a lot of scoring depth. Colin White should prove to be a helpful addition, and Jean-Gabriel Pageau and Ryan Dzingel could take another step forward offensively. It's also worth noting that Erik Karlsson significantly mitigates the lack of a star forward on the roster.
How Craig Anderson plays will be the most important factor to Ottawa's success, though. Through six years with the Senators, the veteran has yo-yoed between excellent and poor, including allowing a league-high 161 goals during the 2015-16 campaign. Everything is in place, but the margin or error is probably thin.
Tampa Bay is a ripe bounce-back candidate and has the clientele to take a run at the division title. Andrei Vasilevskiy will need to prove that he's up to the task of being a No. 1 goaltender, but there is no reason to suspect he isn't after starting 47 games last season — albeit to mediocre results.
The additions of Dan Girardi and Chris Kunitz aren't significant, but both players bring an edge and experience, and they'll each slot into supporting roles. Mikhail Sergachev likely won't make a huge impact next year, but he could, and he's also a huge addition for the long term.
The Lightning have a balanced roster with ample offense. Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov and Victor Hedman are all superstars, and there is enough supporting talent to fuel another deep playoff run. Over the past few seasons, health has been the biggest hindrance, so barring another slew of injuries, expect a lot from Tampa Bay in 2017-18.
The Maple Leafs have themselves in a bit of a cap pickle, and it's up for debate how successful their offseason was. Throwing hefty salaries at Patrick Marleau and Ron Hainsey was bold, and it was also potentially stupid. At least, the two veterans are still exceptional skaters.
Nazem Kadri's deal now looks like a steal, and Frederik Andersen, Morgan Rielly, Nikita Zaitsev and Jake Gardiner are also all on the books at reasonable tickets, so it's not all doom and gloom. However, paydays await for Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and William Nylander.
Toronto is still a better team entering 2017-18 than it was a year ago, and there is star power throughout the lineup. Rielly and Gardiner both have the potential to take another step forward, and offensively, the Maple Leafs exceeded expectations last season with a fifth-ranked 3.05 goals per game and ninth-ranked 11.9 high-danger scoring chances per 60 minutes.
There might be more chips pushed in earlier than fans may have wanted, but it's a boon for our fantasy interests. Those salary concerns might disappear quickly, too.
***
Thanks, Dobberheads.
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“It’s also worth noting that Price struggled down the stretch with a mediocre .915 save percentage in the second half.”
That’s not quite accurate. Price struggled in January and the start of February as the team pretty much quit on Therrien. In that month and a half, Price had a .898 save percentage.
Under Julien, Price had a .937 save percentage. Things improved remarkably for him down the stretch.
Important distinction. Thanks, Tom.
As bad as their off season was (hard to find worse), I think Julien has an underrated positive effect now that he’ll have a full training camp to implement his system. This team is arguably same to slightly worse on paper than they were a year ago (Drouin a slight downgrade versus Radulov on offence; Alzner & Schlemko are slight upgrades vs Emelin & Beaulieu on D and I’m hoping they can re-sign Markov). All and all, I’d be surprised to see them go from 1st in the Division to out of the playoffs…seems like a major stretch.
Perhaps, but the Atlantic has Toronto, Buffalo, Tampa Bay all improving. Ottawa is solid, and the Metro could take both wild-card spots again next year.
Great points Neil, totally agree; however I’ve learned to never underestimate a healthy Price playing in a trap system. $20 says they make it to the post season ;)
If they can solve their problems at C and re-sign Markov, I’d also bet $20, but I’m 50/50 on the Habs right now.
They currently have over $9M in cap space. Something else coming for sure.
I just hope they spend their salary/cap wisely either signing or trading. I’m an Oilers fan first, but I can’t wait to see a Canadian team win the Cup soon. Minus Vancouver, they’re all making good progress.
I’d love to see Markov end his career with the Habs – so few players spend their whole career with their original team these days, something I miss. I guess the odds are rising somewhat with all of the long-term contracts being signed since the 1st cap CBA.
Agreed! Cup has been down south waaaaaaay too long. Oilers will be contenders for years now with McDavid!
Looks like Sabres and Leafs are primed to revive the rivalry
Being an avid Bruins fan I was excited to see how well McAvoy played during the playoffs but you are correct in that it usually takes NCAA players a while to adjust to the NHL schedule.
Rask may have lost a step but he is the only option in town. I currently own Rask and Bobrovsky and have to decide which to keep. Will Bobrovsky hold true to form and follow a great season with a poor one? Thoughts?
Bobrovsky probably has the wider range of outcomes, but I definitely like him more for his upside.
Jagr’s made many millions in his career, but I don’t think any hometown discount will fit under the $10 of cap room
In Florida?
I doubt he’s signing for anything more than $1 or $2 million, but I could be wrong.
Think he was commenting that it reads as 10 dollars not $10 million.
Regardless FLA has stated they will not be bringing him back
Easy, Bryce, no need to get all high and mighty from behind that keyboard. It was a simple and good-natured way to point out a typo that does drastically change the context of what was written. As a writer, I understand how difficult it is to work on a deadline and have to edit one’s own work and I, too, enjoy Neil’s analysis.
this is going to being an interesting division… Toronto, Tampa and Florida are set to roll, with Buffalo and Ottawa in the mix, at least for a wildcard spot… Montreal, Detroit and Boston have regressed and will miss the playoffs. I’m not a Leafs fan but this team is looking like the Hawks in 2010 with some super drafts picks coming into their own.
Agreed. There appears to be a changing of the guard.
I’m surprised that Boston hasn’t brought back Stafford yet. He was a good fit that wouldn’t be expensive to re-sign ($2.5m?). During his short time with the B’s he was scoring at a 25 goal pace.