Every Sunday this off-season, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".

Contributors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, and Neil Parker

1. It was the third straight season for Mark Stone with at least 20 goals and 30 assists, which is solid consistency, even if he only played 71 games last year. Unfortunately, it was also his second season in three years in which he failed to manage at least two shots on goal per game. He also had fewer than 30 penalty minutes, finishing with just 28.

By now, we have a good idea of who Stone is, and everything last year was pretty much in line with his first two full seasons. It’s important, however, for fantasy owners to be able to differentiate his value among different setups. He can be a guy that scores 25 goals, amasses 60 points, and will be roughly a top-60 roto forward (standard leagues). He just does not fill up any of the peripherals and there is no reason to think that will change moving forward.

Keep that in mind when draft season rolls around. If your league counts penalty minutes and shots (and especially real-time stats like hits and blocked shots), there is little chance he’s properly valued in drafts. Given that 2016-17 saw no improvement in peripherals, everything should be status quo next year, and that means he can’t be relied upon to be much more than a top-100 player (including goalies). That is probably about where he’ll be drafted meaning there’s not much upside value at his likely ADP. In a points-only league he can finish much higher, obviously, and that distinction is crucial to keep in mind.

2. Viktor Arvidsson was arguably the sleeper of the year this past season, as only Connor McDavid had a higher one-season point increase (52) than Arvidsson (45). I for one didn’t expect this output from Arvidsson, who wasn’t projected to finish higher than 30 points by many experts. But a move to the top line with Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen (the JOFA Line) was all that Arvidsson needed for his breakout. Compare that to the previous season, when his most frequent linemates were Mike Fisher and Colin Wilson.

Fantasy owners might be enthusiastic about Arvidsson building on his 31-goal, 61-point breakout. However, there are at least a couple warning signs that his production could flatten or even regress. For one, you may remember that Arvidsson struggled to score in the playoffs, hitting the twine just three times in 22 games. Also, his 12.6 shooting percentage was significantly higher than his other percentages over the regular season and playoffs over the past two seasons.

In spite of these concerns, there’s still plenty to like about Arvidsson heading into the 2017-18 season, particularly if he stays on the JOFA Line.

3. Undoubtedly a cornerstone of the future for the Flyers’ blue line, Ivan Provorov probably exceeded all expectations last season. His 30 points was fourth among rookie defensemen but it’s worth noting he managed those 30 points with just five coming on the power play; Zach Werenski had 21 while Nikita Zaitsev had 12. On a points-per-minute basis at five-on-five, Provorov (0.84) stacked up very well against some big names like Torey Krug, Oscar Klefbom (0.85) and Morgan Rielly (0.81). Given that he did so on a team that scored at a lower rate than Arizona, it’s all the more impressive.

Among defencemen with at least 1000 five-on-five minutes played, Provorov finished in the top 25 percent in shots per minute. He could probably stand to shoot more from a fantasy perspective but it’s still a very solid mark for a debut season.

Even his shot-driving metrics were very solid when he was paired with notorious boat anchor Andrew MacDonald.

The young Russian did everything that a team could hope to see in a rookie season for a future blue line pillar. Even by the eye test, he was smooth and decisive with the puck. At the risk of hyperbole, it may only be a few years until he’s in the Norris Trophy conversation. Be warned, however, that unless he supplants Shayne Gostisbehere on the top PP unit, his upside will be capped on this team. If he can even manage 40 points, that would be a wildly successful fantasy campaign.

4. The Detroit Red Wings avoided an arbitrator’s ruling with winger Tomas Tatar by signing him to a four-year deal carrying an average annual value of $5.3 million. That is the same AAV as the recently-signed Ondrej Palat from Tampa Bay.

Tatar had 25 goals and 46 points for the Wings in 2016-17. While those 25 goals don’t seem like a huge total, he did manage 19 of them at five-on-five. That was the same number that Brad Marchand and Viktor Arvidsson tallied. It was the result of a percentage binge, however, as it was the third straight year of shot-per-minute decline he endured.

Cap leaguers will have a decision to make. It’s hard to see this Detroit team being much higher scoring in the near-term than they were last year, which means there probably isn’t much improvement from Tatar ahead production-wise. He can be a 25-goal, 25-assist type of player but with the talent on that team lacking, particularly on the blue line, expecting much more than that isn’t realistic. He’s probably fine if it’s a points-only cap league but roto league owners may want to find a trading partner.

5. Arizona signed winger Jordan Martinook to a two-year, $3.6 million contract. Martinook doesn’t register among the Coyotes’ up-and-coming forwards, but he has a 40-goal season from the WHL under his belt. Despite that, Martinook likely doesn’t move up to the top 6 unless there’s an injury.

6. In New Jersey, Yaroslav Dyblenko was a player off my fantasy radar. Stefan Noesen was a guy I've been considering as a potential late bloomer, while both Michael McLeod and Blake Speers should have our attention.

Dyblenko projects as a project defenseman with limited offensive fantasy value. But he's aggressive and could provide serviceable peripheral coverage once acclimatized to North America and playing regularly. That might not be in the cards this season, though.

There's a lot to be said about fine-tuning your game in the AHL and both Speers and McLeod would likely benefit from the experience. It would also seem more likely that John Quenneville is going to crack the roster after a respectable 12-game stint with the Devils last season.

All said, this might prove to be a buy-low time for some young Devils. The team is a defense corps away from taking a step forward and there are a number of promising forwards moving through the system. At 31, Cory Schneider still has a handful of years left before a replacement is needed, too.

7. Alex Goligoski is just one of three defensemen to record 35 points with at least 100 shots, hits and blocked shots in each of the past three seasons. Shea Weber and Drew Doughty are the other two, which is obviously impressive company. Goligoski could see softer in-game matchups in 2017-18 with Niklas Hjalmarsson in the fold, so Goligoski doesn't project to have his fantasy stock impacted significantly this year.

8. Clayton Keller is likely to be a polarizing player this draft season. While he's not a sure thing to be drafted in all settings, the rookie projects to be a popular late-round target.

The undersized pivot is coming off a dominant season with 45-point campaign as a freshman with Boston University, which also included excellent showings for Team USA in the World Junior Championship and World Championship. Keller even got his feet wet at the highest level with a three-game stint with Arizona. Overall, he played 49 games. This season, in a best-case scenario, he dresses for 82. That's a huge jump.

It's difficult to correlate NCAA products first NHL seasons because typically the players are entering the league at different ages and oft-times after some AHL seasoning. It's highly unlikely Keller spends time with the Roadrunners — he'll be 19 years old this fall for his rookie season.

9. Dylan Larkin is the obvious candidate to compare Keller to. They're both skilled players that spent just a single season in the NCAA and even represented USA in the World Junior and World Championships before their rookie seasons in the NHL.

Their NHL teams aren't significantly different, either. In both cases, neither rookie will be saddled with huge offensive expectations immediately because of a veteran presence up front. Arizona's has a much different look than the 2015-16 Red Wings but the Coyotes are probably a similar club overall.

Of course, the reason for the comparison is that Larkin had an excellent fantasy campaign in 2015-16. He finished with 23 goals, 45 points, 221 shots and even posted a 52.5 Corsi For percentage. Unfortunately, the workload took its toll in the second half of the season and Larkin scored just five goals and seven points through his final 28 games.

Should fantasy owners expect much more from Keller than what Larkin posted in his rookie season? Is it worth factoring in a second-half slide for Keller?

Without winger eligibility, it'll be difficult for Keller to make a consistent fantasy impact next year. Center is deep and as much as there is warranted optimism for the Coyotes, Arizona isn't likely to make that sizeable of a step forward just yet. Obviously, there are going to be plenty of leagues where Keller is a serviceable asset but the shiny-new-toy syndrome is likely to zap all profit from his fantasy stock before he even plays a game.

10. Ryan Miller was an astute signing for the Ducks —  insurance for the oft-injured John Gibson. While his best days are behind him, Miller was still a solid goalie last year. The Ducks still boasts a very solid top-four defence corps and a deep forward group, indicating to me this team should be strong again. While league mates chase Gibson, Miller makes a fine third goaltender in 12-teamers.

11. I’ve heard rumblings that Scott Darling will be a top-10 goalie by the end of the season and should be drafted as such. In that case, I can’t fathom ranking Darling ahead of more established safer bets such as Jonathan Quick, Ben Bishop, Martin Jones, or Tuukka Rask. I will say that I admire when someone takes a stand and believes that Darling will reach that top 10, as it makes for great discussion.

Darling’s career numbers as the Blackhawks’ backup are solid (2.37 GAA, .923 SV%). His new team is sneaky good at suppressing shots (28.3 SA/GP, fifth-best total in 2016-17). But as we do with every newly appointed starter, we need to bring up the fact that Darling has never played more than 32 games. How many games will the Hurricanes win? And with Cam Ward still in the mix, how many games will Darling actually start?

For the record, I’m not that concerned about the questions that I’ve listed. But in a 12-team league, you should be drafting Darling as a potential second goalie rather than a first.

12. Like Darling, Antti Raanta has been elevated to a starting position thanks to great work as a backup. Raanta has posted a 2.17 goals-against average and a .924 save percentage over the last three seasons, including a ninth-ranked 2.26 goals-against average and an 11th-ranked .922 save percentage last season among goalies who played at least 25 games.

The Coyotes’ defense might be a different kettle of fish than the Rangers’ defense, though. The Rangers were middle of the pack with 30.1 shots allowed per game, while the Coyotes were second-worst with 34.1 shots allowed per game last season. If Raanta maintains a .920 save percentage, his goals-against average would finish somewhere around 2.60 with those extra four shots allowed. Not terrible, and the acquisition of Niklas Hjalmarsson could help further with that. But we haven’t grown accustomed to the Coyotes being strong defensively these last few years.

13. It's obviously still far too early to write off Curtis Lazar but it's also difficult to sugarcoat his transition to the highest level. Outside of a 13-game stint in the AHL last season, he has spent all of the past three years in the NHL and there is a legitimate chance his offensive game has been capped for good. At the same time, the change of scenery could be a sparkplug for Lazar, and especially considering he's from Western Canada. At worst, he's going to be a solid lower-line player with shut-down potential.

14. Chicago limited Michal Kempny to 50 games and just 14:58 per night in his first season in the league, so looking at 2016-17 as an opportunity to acclimatize to North America and the NHL is probably best. There are more minutes and a larger role within reach this year and Kempny has the potential to take a modest step forward offensively. He also offers decent production in the peripheral categories after registering 67 shots, 76 hits and 59 blocked shots last year.

15. It’s hard not to imagine what the season would have been like had Mika Zibanejad been able to stay healthy. After back-to-back seasons with at least 80 games played, the 24-year-old Swede managed just 56 games due to a broken fibula. More to that point was that he had 15 points through 19 games when the injury occurred, and his points per game dropped from 0.79 up until the injury to 0.59 in the 37 games he played upon his return.

Nothing was out of line for Zibanejad going from the Senators to the Rangers as far as production and shots at five-on-five were concerned. His points (1.80 compared to 1.76 per 60 minutes) were about the same while his shots fell but not by a margin that is a huge red flag (7.41 to 6.73). He was basically the player he was over his final couple of seasons in Ottawa; with about 17 minutes a game, we could get 20 goals and 50 points from him.

The big question is how much more ice time he will be given next year. The trade of Derek Stepan to the Coyotes means that, assuming Zibanejad is signed — it’s worth noting he’s still a restricted free agent right now, though I can’t imagine he’s not a Ranger for years to come — he will be the top centre for the team. Over the last two years on aggregate, Stepan averaged over 18 minutes a game, including a role on the penalty kill. Zibanejad can penalty kill, but hopefully the extra minutes given aren’t solely on the PK. Even an extra minute between EV/PP time could mean 55-60 points for Zibanejad rather than 50-55.

16. This was the season that fantasy owners, and Chris Kreider believers, had been waiting years for. He had been productive but never really had a full breakout. While 28 goals, 53 points, and 13 power-play points isn’t quite the full-fledged breakout, it was his best offensive season to date and a promise of what could be to come.

First and foremost, he was finally given consistent top-six minutes (often on the top line), finishing with a career-high 17 minutes per game. I don’t think he improves much on that next year, however; under Alain Vigneault’s stewardship, no Rangers forward has cracked 19 minutes a game in any of the last four seasons. The only forward to crack 18 minutes a game in each of the last two seasons is Mats Zuccarello. Maybe Kreider can add a half-minute or thereabouts to his average time on ice but it won’t be the significant jump that we saw between 2015-16 and 2016-17. He should be among the most-used forwards again for the Rangers next year at even strength, it’s just that the ice time is very spread out.

Another good sign is that though he shot a career-high 15.1 percent at all strengths — he averaged 12.4 percent over the three previous seasons. Even if that percentage does come down a bit, he can still post 25-30 goals. He did average 8.2 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five, higher than his previous three-year average of 7.82. While the 28 goals were the result of a small spike in shooting percentage, he was shooting more and playing 80 games should help stabilize these totals.

The improvement to the blue line should help everyone, and Kreider is finally realizing his fantasy potential as a player. Solid peripherals and another 25-goal, 50-point season should have him as a borderline top-50 fantasy forward in roto leagues again next year.

17. The Ottawa Senators avoided arbitration with Jean-Gabriel Pageau by signing him to a three-year deal with an average annual value of $3.1 million. That is a significant jump for the 24-year-old, who had never managed an AAV of at least $1 million in either of his first two contracts. He is now signed through his Age 27 season. Pageau had 12 goals and 33 points in 2016-17, coming off a 19-goal, 43-point season in 2015-16.

This is a fine signing for the team, given that in the short-term he won’t have to be more than a third-line centre, barring injuries. His skills are suited for that role.

Cap league owners with Pageau on their rosters should have been prepared for this kind of raise, so it’s a matter of whether your roster can handle that kind of increase. A $3.1 million AAV for a centre capable of about 15 goals and 35-ish points is about par for the course (think of Erik Haula). The value could come in future years for Pageau cap league owners, as Kyle Turris has one year left on his contract. If he doesn’t come back, it’s possible Pageau is in a top-six role a year from now.

18. One of the most disappointing goaltenders last season was Petr Mrazek, and with Detroit likely to have another down season, Mrazek's fantasy stock has plummeted with good reason. There's not a lot of reason for short-term optimism, either.

Detroit goalie coach Jeff Salajko noted Mrazek has been "working hard" this offseason, as the goaltender enters a contract year. The Red Wings are unlikely to shed Jimmy Howard's hefty salary, while Jared Coreau is also coming off an AHL championship run with Grand Rapids. There's a potential logjam and Mrazek could quickly become the odd-man out with Howard passing over the reins to Coreau in 2019-20.

It's the perfect backdrop of a buy-low spot. Especially in deep keeper/dynasty settings, it's always important to focus on talent and there is no questioning Mrazek's. The goalie landscape seems to flip and flop yearly and a new location could be a huge fantasy boon for Mrazek. Perhaps, there were some behind-the-scenes discussions but he wasn't protected in the expansion draft, which is a pretty telling indication of his status within the organization. Additionally, Detroit has shown long-standing loyalty to Howard.

With all that said, Mrazek is still a restricted free agent when his current contract expires next spring, so there is still a lot at play here. Talent usually wins out eventually and Mrazek should be a No. 1 starter at some point in the near future.

19. Despite being on the fantasy map for years, Beau Bennett's inability to stay healthy has all but squashed his virtual value. Additionally, rarely is a player coming off a 19-point campaign an intriguing asset. Bennett is probably only a player to keep tabs on in the deepest formats but he did post an impressive 53.4 Corsi For percentage with the Devils last year, and he's now relocated to a significantly better team.

20. There's likely a job to lose on the San Jose blue line for Dylan DeMelo, and the 24-year-old defenseman has already logged 70 games over the past two seasons. He showed power-play upside in 2015-16 scoring all four of his points on the man advantage. His one-way deal should also provide him with a long leash as the sixth defenseman. Obviously, that's not a favorable fantasy setup but DeMelo could be an interesting asset if he climbs the depth chart for stretches.

Have a good week, folks!!