Arvidsson signs long term, other signings, the St. Louis defense debate, plus more…

The Nashville Predators have avoided an arbitration decision with one of their main pieces, locking up Viktor Arvidsson to a seven-year contract worth $29.75 million total.
 

Viktor Arvidsson has signed a seven-year, $29.75 million contract. https://t.co/plzk2FdG3W

— Adam Vingan (@AdamVingan) July 22, 2017

Arvidsson was arguably the sleeper of the year this past season (undoubtedly true if you ask Steve Laidlaw), as only Connor McDavid had a higher one-season point increase (52) than Arvidsson (45). I for one didn’t expect this output from Arvidsson, who wasn’t projected to finish higher than 30 points by many experts. But a move to the top line with Filip Forsberg and Ryan Johansen (the JOFA Line) was all that Arvidsson needed for his breakout. Compare that to the previous season, when his most frequent linemates were Mike Fisher and Colin Wilson.

Arvidsson cap leaguers are no doubt rejoicing over the $4.2 million cap hit. If he can keep up this 60-point pace for much of the seven-year contract, Arvidsson will provide great value and cost certainty. Conversely, you could also point to Arvidsson having just one solid season as the reason that his cap hit is slightly lower than that of, say, Jonathan Drouin or even Tomas Tatar (more on him shortly).

If there’s one team that’s figuring out how to make the most of their cap limit, it’s Nashville. Three of the big four defensemen (Roman Josi, Mattias Ekholm, Ryan Ellis) are signed for at least two more years at no more than $4 million per season. They have $14 million left to sign RFAs Ryan Johansen and Austin Watson and maybe Fisher. Sure, the Preds have an internal budget and likely won’t quite reach the cap ceiling, but they are nowhere near the cap crisis that forces teams to make tough decisions about important pieces (think Chicago or Tampa Bay or potentially Edmonton down the road).  

Fantasy owners might be enthusiastic about Arvidsson building on his 31-goal, 61-point breakout. However, there are at least a couple warning signs that his production could flatten or even regress. For one, you may remember that Arvidsson struggled to score in the playoffs, hitting the twine just three times in 22 games. Also, his 12.6 shooting percentage was significantly higher than his other percentages over the regular season and playoffs over the past two seasons.

In spite of these concerns, there’s still plenty to like about Arvidsson heading into the 2017-18 season, particularly if he stays on the JOFA Line.  

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Then there’s the Tomas Tatar contract. Four years at $5.3 million per season. If you put Tatar’s and Arvidsson’s 2016-17 seasons side by side (wait, you can right here), it’s kind of unbelievable that Tatar is making over $1 million more per season. Arvidsson was 0.2 points per game (which turns out to be 15 points) better than Tatar last season. And after a 56-point campaign in 2014-15, Tatar’s production has cratered to 45 and 46 points over each of the last two seasons.

But in spite of Arvidsson’s upside, could we argue that Tatar is more of a known commodity? There’s no way that you’re drafting Tatar over Arvidsson in a fantasy league, but his recent fantasy production suggests that he’s good for at least 20 goals and 45 points. And as Mike Clifford pointed out, Tatar had as many 5-on-5 goals as Arvidsson last season. Tatar simply doesn’t have the high-end linemates in Detroit that Arvidsson has in Nashville, so that pretty much ends that argument right there.

So Arvidsson contract: great for cap leaguers. Tatar contract: not so much.

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Some other signings that flew under the radar on Saturday:

Calgary signed goaltending prospects Jon Gillies and David Rittich to one-year, two-way contracts. These two goalies were last season’s tandem for the Flames’ AHL affiliate, the Stockton Heat. Gillies in particular should be of interest to keeper leaguers, as Mike Smith has just two years left on his contract and Eddie Lack just one.

Arizona signed winger Jordan Martinook to a two-year, $3.6 million contract. Martinook doesn’t register among the Coyotes’ up-and-coming forwards, but he has a 40-goal season from the WHL under his belt. Despite that, Martinook likely doesn’t move up to the top 6 unless there’s an injury.

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With Colton Parayko signing to a five-year contract worth $27.5 million, there has been plenty of discussion about his role, particularly on the Blues’ power play. Neil provided his take in the Friday Ramblings, while a couple other Dobber writers tweeted about the situation shortly after the contract announcement.
 

Maybe I am reading too much into this but Parayko coming in at $5.5M per signals where he stands vs. Pietrangelo in the Blues org. (1/?)

— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) July 20, 2017

📢 advertisement:

Over/Under for Colton Parayko next season: 42.5 points

— /Cam Robinson/ (@CrazyJoeDavola3) July 19, 2017

So… this has the makings of a strong poll question.
 

Who finishes with more points in 2017-18?

— Ian Gooding (@Ian_Gooding) July 22, 2017

You may be familiar with this stat by now, but I’ll run through it again. After the Kevin Shattenkirk trade, Pietrangelo scored 18 points in 20 regular-season games, including 8 power-play points. Parayko, meanwhile, scored seven points and just one power-play point over that same number of games. Those are the stats I would probably pay closer attention to more than the season-long stats (Pietrangelo 48 P, 19 PPP, Parayko 33 P, 7 PPP).

Another important event for both d-men happened a month earlier, when Ken Hitchcock was replaced by Mike Yeo as the Blues’ head coach. Both defensemen scored six points in 12 games that month, although Pietrangelo had the upper hand in terms of power-play points again (3 to 1). So although Yeo’s deployment helped, the Shattenkirk trade was the real factor. But as Steve mentioned:
 

Pietrangelo went up over 26 minutes per game after Shatt was dealt from 24:50 per prior, including a full minute increase in PP time.

— Stephen Laidlaw (@SteveLaidlaw) July 20, 2017

Remember that Parayko’s struggles went back earlier than the coaching change and the Shattenkirk trade. For a player known for his big-time shot, Parayko didn’t help his cause by scoring just four goals all season, with his first goal not happening until January 10. In spite of that, he managed to surpass his overall point total by two while increasing his shot total by 23 from the previous season.

So to bring it back to Steve's original comment, Parayko may possess the tools to be that effective power-play QB, and the Blues likely envision him in that role at some point. But remember that coaches like Yeo and Hitchcock live in the here and now and are paid to win hockey games. That means going with their best option today, or at least their most proven veteran option. Right now that guy is Pietrangelo. 

Should the power-play struggle, though, Yeo has another first-unit point man option. That’s when we would start to see Pietrangelo lose some of his fantasy value, although the even-strength minutes he should continue to accumulate shouldn’t affect his real-life value so much. Then Pietrangelo owners such as me might be back to the sub-40-point, 6 power-play point version of 2015-16.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.