Johansen, Ducks Defense, Who Fills Markov’s Shoes?

On Friday the Predators signed center Ryan Johansen to an eight-year, $64 million contract extension. Mike Clifford mentioned the signing in yesterday’s Ramblings, along with further information on Johansen in his Nashville team recap. Is he a top 50 single-season draft option? I’m on the fence.

Although Johansen has been a top-50 point producer over each of the last four seasons, roto leaguers should be concerned about his lack of peripherals. Pure points leaguers receive a known commodity that should reach somewhere between 60-70 points. However, those pure points leagues that award more league points for goals than assists should be concerned about the assist-heavy totals that he has amassed since he was acquired by the Preds. Over 124 regular-season games, Johansen has scored just 22 goals. But he’s finished in the top 20 for assists in each of the past three seasons.

In a salary cap league, Filip Forsberg at $6 million seems like better value than Johansen at $8 million, particularly in leagues where the issues above matter. That’s not to say he’s not a good investment. Certainty is a good thing, and Johansen’s numbers don’t seem to wildly fluctuate. I did find it interesting though, that most voters believe that he won’t surpass his career-high 71 points in the Cage Match vote on skaters that peaked early.

Having said that, he’s a great fit for the Preds. His playmaking ability is a major factor in the ascent of Viktor Arvidsson, and you can’t argue with the team’s recent success. His loss to injury during the Western Conference Final cannot be understated.

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Johansen has recorded at least 45 assists over the last three seasons while scoring just 14 goals over each of the last two seasons, giving him a 0.30 goals per assist ratio. If you are curious about other players with a similar or lower goal-to-assist ratio over the past two seasons, here they are:

This list is taken from the forwards with the top 50 assist totals over the past two seasons.

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It’s a bit hard to believe that Andrei Markov will not be returning to the NHL this coming season. I’m not totally surprised he left for the KHL, but he appeared to have at least a couple of decent seasons left in him.

His departure and that of Alexander Radulov will give the Habs’ power play a completely different look for next season. Since Markov was on the point with Shea Weber on the Habs’ first power-play unit, someone will need to fill the void. Who will it be?

The Mark Streit signing basically signaled the end of Markov’s time in Montreal. Streit is only a year older than Markov, but his point decline has been more apparent. Streit recorded 13 power-play points last season split between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, including five in just 19 games with the Penguins. The power-play points accounted for nearly half of Markov’s 27 points last season. Streit is also only two seasons removed from a 30 PPP season in Philadelphia.

This might not be music to a Habs’ fans’ ears, but Streit has to be a considered a strong favorite here. I could totally see a world where Streit is a bottom-pairing defenseman but on the first-unit power play. He wasn’t trusted enough for the Penguins to use him a whole lot during the playoffs. But it’s not as if the Habs have a whole ton of viable options on defense for this role. Jeff Petry? David Schlemko? Neither has the kind of body of work on the power play as Streit.

Sticking a forward on the point is another possibility. We’d have to assume that the first unit will likely consist of Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk, and Jonathan Drouin. That would leave one of someone like Brendan Gallagher or Andrew Shaw as the fourth forward. Drouin often played the point on the Lightning’s power play, so this is a model that the Habs could also very well use. I have a feeling this will be the most popular option, but knowing the Habs that doesn’t mean that will be the one that is chosen.

This article from Eyes on the Prize also lists Jakub Jerabek, Artturi Lehkonen, and Charles Hudon as darkhorse possibilities.

If you are a Habs’ fan (and I know there are a few of you reading), weigh in if you think there are other possibilities.

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Only three days left… until the 2017-18 Fantasy Hockey Guide! Christmas for Dobber fans! Preorder the 12^th edition of the Fantasy Hockey Guide here.

Just to preview: I was tasked with writing the articles on goalies to watch. I’ve covered both current goalies who could be ready to take it to the next level, along with prospect goalies who could step in and make an impact if the starter gets injured. There were some easy choices and some tougher ones, but… you’ll just have to buy the draft guide to find out.

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One player that at least a few keeper league owners seem to be trying to get rid of is Sami Vatanen. The offseason shoulder surgery that could delay the start of his season is one thing. But a drop of 14 points to just 24 points in 2016-17 seems to have placed Vatanen outside the group of defensemen that one would select from in, say, a standard-sized Yahoo league.

Hampus Lindholm seems to be suffering an almost identical fate. He has also undergone offseason shoulder surgery, and his production also dropped last season. Lindholm didn’t quite have as far to fall, but with just 20 points in 66 games, there are probably better defensemen out there for your fantasy team. Especially if Lindholm misses time to start the season.

Under Randy Carlyle’s system, Cam Fowler became the go-to guy. Fowler and Vatanen’s power-play icetime was similar (around three minutes per game), yet Fowler received three minutes more overall icetime per game compared to Vatanen (two of which was even strength). It’s interesting how power-play icetime isn’t the deciding factor here, but clearly Randy Carlyle trusts Fowler more than Vatanen. The icetime difference translated to about three more shifts per game for Fowler.

Lindholm has failed to reach 30 points in back-to-back seasons, even though his career high is 34. So we may have to grow accustomed to him as a defender whose point totals will be in the 20s. But could Vatanen bounce back? There’s the chance that Brandon Montour could earn more power-play time, and Josh Manson more even-strength time. That means that Vatanen’s role could diminish further.

Those who own Vatanen and Lindholm and are considering other options can’t be blamed for doing so, as neither has a ton of fantasy appeal heading into the season. Fantasy owners shouldn’t go out of their way to protect them the way the Ducks did for the expansion draft.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.