Fantasy Top-10: Players with Long-Term Value but Will Disappoint in 2017-18
Tom Collins
2017-07-31
Tomorrow is like Christmas for many fantasy general managers as this year’s Dobber’s 2017-18 Fantasy Hockey Guide will be released. To grab your copy of the guide, check out the Dobber Shop.
I wrote a column for the guide about 20 players that won’t do much this upcoming campaign, but will be excellent fantasy assets two or three years down the road. With the guide due out tomorrow, here is a sneak peak of that column with an additional 10 names.
There was one rule that I adhered to for the guide but broke for one of the players on this list: No rookies for this upcoming season.
10. Anthony Beauvillier
Beauvillier is ranked as the second-best prospect in the Islanders organization on the Dobber Prospect web site. His future success, however, will depend on what the Islanders do in the next calendar year as John Tavares and Josh Bailey are UFAs. If they both come back, it makes it harder for Beauvillier to get ice time. Especially when you take into account all the young offensive prospects the Islanders have. This year will be tough for Beauvillier but he should slowly improve.
9. James van Riemsdyk
I’m expecting a bit of a letdown for most of the Leafs this year, with JVR will be leading the way. His ice time has dropped each season — a total of more than five minutes per game — since 2013-14. With the Leafs going in a younger direction overall, plus the signing of Patrick Marleau to take on the veteran role, there’s not enough ice time for JVR. He’s a UFA in a year and with a new team could be a threat for a career-high 70 points.
Arizona could go with a goalie tandem this year and just let the two netminders decide who will be the team’s future number one. The smart money is on Antti Raanta as the ball is in his court to start the season since he’s the shiny new toy in Arizona. It is worth noting that neither goalie is signed past this year, so the battle for the team’s number one spot could hit a fever pitch at various parts of the season. Whoever is the long-term starter in Arizona will be in a great situation in a couple of years.
7. Jake McCabe
One of Buffalo’s biggest issues is that despite all their great young talent up front, they are severely lacking on the back end and not much in the pipeline outside of Brendan Guhle. That gives the 23-year-old McCabe a huge advantage and could be poised to take on a bigger role with the Sabres in a few years. His biggest competition at this point is Nathan Beaulieu, but if the former Hab can’t hack it in Buffalo, then McCabe could step in nicely.
After an excellent rookie season in 2015-16, Duclair took a major step back in 2016-17, scoring only five goals and 15 points while spending some time in the AHL. Even if he rebounds to 44 points, that’s not draftable in most leagues. His time will come. Just not this year. He’ll be a top-six winger in a few years, but now is the time to get him cheap.
5. Troy Stetcher
Stecher had a quiet rookie season this past year because the Canucks were so awful, but there should be lots of optimism when it comes to Stetcher as the right-handed defenseman played 20 minutes a game and was on the top power play unit. He posted 24 points in 70 games, which doesn’t sound impressive, but that was tops among Canucks dmen. Getting the experience and opportunity will only help him down the road.
4. Brandon Montour
If you were making a checklist of what had to happen for Montour to be fantasy relevant, this is how it would go: Dominate the AHL. Check. Have the Ducks lose a young defenseman in the expansion draft. Check. Have Kevin Bieksa leave the squad next year as a free agent. Still in limbo. Have most of the Ducks defensemen struggle to put up points. Check. Montour won’t get the ice time for another couple of years but there will be a good spot for him when he’s ready.
3. Jimmy Vesey
Vesey isn’t the first college athlete to struggle his in his rookie pro season. It’s tough to go from a 30-40 game season and then double that in your first year as a pro. You could see Vesey’s production drop as the last season went on:
First 20 games: 7 goals, 12 points, plus-5, 35 shots
Second 20 games: 3 goals, 7 points, minus-6, 30 shots
Third 20 games: 3 goals, 4 points, minus-8, 28 shots
Final 20 games: 2 goals, 4 points, minus-4, 23 shots
It’s going to take a while for him to get used to playing 80-game seasons.
2. Shea Theodore
It was going to be tough for the 21-year-old to get consistent ice time in Anaheim. Being with the Vegas expansion team means he has an easier path to be the team’s number one defenseman. That won’t happen this year. Vegas has five other defensemen who are unrestricted free agents next summer. I expect those guys to see a lot of ice time to drive up their value before being traded away. Theodore will eventually be running the power play in Vegas. It just won’t be this year.
1. Juuse Saros
This is the player I broke the rookie rule for as he is still eligible for the Calder in 2017-18 despite seeing action in 21 games this year. Pekka Rinne is an average goaltender who happens to be making $7 million a year for two more years. He’s the golden boy for the next little while, but Saros has put up impressive numbers every where he’s played and will be ready to take over the team’s nets once Rinne’s contract runs out. Saros will still be the backup this year but his time is coming.
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one more sleep
“[JVR] is a UFA in a year and with a new team could be a threat for a career-high 70 points”
If he doesn’t score 70 next to Matthews, Marner, or Nylander, he won’t do it anywhere. Certainly not on a bottom-feeder that will overpay for him next summer, as it always happens with UFAs. Ladd, Okposo, Nielsen and Eriksson say hi.
Perhaps. But I believe the Leafs will have a setback season and many of them will struggle.
Fair enough.
I think they’ll break out for an Atlantic title.
We’ll see in 8 months.