Doughty vs. Hamilton, Radulov, plus more…

If you managed to catch the Mayweather/McGregor fight, I hope you enjoyed it. The fight didn’t seem like a complete waste of money if you had to cough up something more than your annual fantasy hockey league dues to watch it.  

Staying on the theme of fights, I’ve got one for what I’m projecting to be the last keeper spot on my expert league team. This battle happens to be between two similarly valued defensemen: Drew Doughty and Dougie Hamilton. Apologies in advance to Rick Roos if he had this one queued up for a future Cage Match, although he would probably use a more detailed analysis if he were to write about these two players. I need to think this one through and writing out my work helps me. And maybe it’ll help you on some level too, at least on the thought process of picking between two players.

Here’s the tale of the tape, using the categories from my league plus what I consider important criteria when making such a decision. I’m using two seasons, as both players played nearly every game over the past two seasons, and that also spans Hamilton’s time in Calgary.

Note: I have used two-year averages for the stats.

In a points-only league, the two are almost in a dead heat, and that is reflected in the practically neck-and-neck rankings from both NHL.com and Dobber. If Hamilton continues on his upward trajectory then he might have a slight edge on Doughty here. But if I cite Rick’s recent offering on Age and Fantasy Success for Defensemen, not even Doughty has hit the age in which defensemen hit their prime. But he’s close, as he turns 28 in December.

If you are in a multicategory league, need a defenseman when it’s your turn to pick, and these two defensemen are your top two options, it’s going to come down to peripheral categories. And who you pick will depend on which categories you count.

Doughty has the edge in plus/minus and power-play points. But if you believe in the theory that Calgary is on the rise and Los Angeles is declining, then these two might be more even in these categories. But until I actually see this, give Doughty the edge.

Hamilton is a shots on goal beast. Over the past two seasons only five defensemen have more shots on goal. So I’d lean toward Hamilton if your league counts shots on goal yet few other peripheral categories.

But because of the numerous peripheral categories I have, I’m going Doughty. He simply does too much in a game because of all the time he has on the ice, which is 27 minutes per game last season compared to just under 20 minutes per game for Hamilton. That allows for more contributions in the physical categories of hits and blocked shots. So if goals and assists are practically the same, Doughty wins more categories on my scorecard than Hamilton.

But it’s also worth revisiting this Geek of the Week column from nearly a year ago. You’ll need to use a higher pick on Hamilton this season, as he was ranked 110 by Yahoo last season in spite of his contributions in numerous categories.  

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Just how good can Alexander Radulov be in Dallas? Here we are one year after the Canadiens took a chance on the often-maligned forward. Radulov was able to leverage that successful season in Montreal to a five-year contract worth over $6 million per season with the Stars.

Of course, his value will depend heavily on whether he plays on the top line with Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn. He should receive plenty of opportunities to click with the Stars’ two top forwards. In fact, he will only reach his potential as a top-50 fantasy option if he spends the majority of the season with Seguin and Benn.

Could Radulov credit the quality of his linemates in Montreal for his 54-point season? According to Frozen Pool, Radulov spent just over 50 percent of his icetime last season with Max Pacioretty and Philip Danault. Like Pacioretty, Benn is a sharpshooter on the opposite wing. Danault obviously isn’t a scorer at the level of Seguin, but he quietly constructed an assist-heavy 40-point season. So the similarities are there, which is probably what the Stars had in mind when they decided to sign Radulov.

Even though he’s been back in the NHL and his personality issues seem to be behind him, Radulov is still more of a high-risk, high-reward option when compared to other similarly-valued forwards. There is always a risk to a player joining a new team. We don’t know for a fact that he will gel perfectly with Seguin and Benn. In addition, what if Ken Hitchcock decides to spread the Stars’ scoring across different lines instead of concentrating it on one line? Or that Radulov doesn’t get along with Hitchcock?

All of that said, there is the potential for Radulov’s point total to push that of Seguin and Benn should they be his linemates all season. Hey, it worked for Patrick Eaves last season. So your money should be on it working out for Radulov in Dallas.

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Another Connor was in the news on Saturday. That Connor was Connor Brown, who the Leafs inked to a three-year deal worth $6.3 million. This is a great deal for the Leafs, who were able to get 20 goals and nearly 40 points out of Brown in in his rookie season last season.

Speaking of which, it would be a reach to assume that Brown will reach 20 again this season. He won’t get a sniff of the first-unit power play, and may not latch onto the second unit either. Still, only two of his 20 goals were on the man advantage. His 14 percent shooting last season might seem on the higher end, but we simply don’t have enough of a sample size to know what kind of shooter he will be. On the other hand, his goal/assist ratio from junior suggests that he is capable of more in the way of helpers. Something in the neighborhood of 15 goals and 20 assists on the third line would be a reasonable projection. 

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Some player news that happened on Saturday:

Jaromir Jagr’s agent Petr Svoboda believes that Jagr will be signed somewhere in the NHL this season (NHL.com). There is the possibility that Jagr could start the season in the Czech league, according to Elliotte Friedman.

Also from Friedman, former Oiler Matt Hendricks is close to signing with the Winnipeg Jets. Darren Dreger of TSN has added that the contract is for one year and worth $700,000.

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The Will Butcher watch will reportedly end on Sunday, as the free agent NCAA defenseman is expected to make his decision on his new team. It will be interesting to see where he lands and whether he can make a fantasy impact someday.

Free agency taketh away from the Avalanche, but it also giveth. Free agent forward Alexander Kerfoot chose the Avalanche on Thursday. For more on Kerfoot, you can check out his profile on Dobber Prospects. My quick take is that he seems to be more of an organizational depth player than anything, but I would think that there are a few jobs up for grabs in Colorado that he could compete for.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.