Ramblings: Alex Ovechkin and the Contradictions Matrix (Aug 30)

Ian Gooding

2017-08-30

Ovechkin, Pirri, Parise, plus more…

What appeared to be a slimmed-down Alex Ovechkin skated at the Capitals’ practice facility on Tuesday. Ovechkin tipped the scales at 239 pounds last season, so he appeared to take on a challenge from the team to improve his conditioning.

For the first time in four seasons, Ovie was not able to reach 50 goals. In fact, he dropped to just 33 goals, underwhelming those who grabbed him with an early first-round pick in fantasy drafts last season. He did make up for it by posting his highest assist total in six seasons, resulting in an overall drop of just two points. Still, Ovechkin took 85 fewer shots in spite of finishing second in that category to Brent Burns last season.

This news could have some fantasy implications for a number of different reasons. For one, a more svelte Ovechkin could be a faster Ovechkin. That could obviously lead to more goals and more points, which fantasy owners would welcome. But an improvement in one quality could result in another quality gets worse. (In the science of product development, this is referred to the contradictions matrix.) 

That quality would be his physical play; namely, his hit totals. Ovechkin finished tied for 19th in the NHL with 216 hits last season and has finished with at least 200 hits over each of his last four seasons. The Capitals obviously need the soon-to-be 32-year-old Ovechkin to at least maintain his scoring level, so the hits total could suffer as a result. That hits total has already decreased over each of the last two seasons. Tom Wilson has already taken over as the Caps’ most physical player, leading the team in hits over each of the last two seasons.

The question is, could that change result in an overall improvement to Ovechkin's fantasy value? In this case, the answer is yes. I'd be more bullish on Ovechkin as a result.

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Here are two players well past the age of 30 that could make their NHL debuts this season.

Veteran KHL winger Danis Zaripov will be allowed to sign in the NHL after his KHL contract was terminated because of a positive doping test. Certainly this is a decision that not everyone will agree with. He has scored at or near point-per-game numbers throughout his KHL career. At this stage in his career (age 36), I wouldn’t expect a team to make him into a top-6 forward, but he could provide a team with scoring depth and may even sneak into the fantasy conversation if he can land a one-year contract somewhere.

Chris Lee, who was the only Canadian player at the World Hockey Championship that has never played in the NHL, has been offered a professional tryout by the LA Kings (NHL.com). Even though he will already be 37 in October, Lee scored 65 points in 60 games as a defenseman in the KHL last season. That was a KHL record. Pretty remarkable, especially for someone at his age who was never drafted.

Would Lee be the oldest player in NHL history to play his first NHL game? Not quite, but close. If Lee doesn’t crack the Kings’ roster, I’d expect him to be considered for the Canadian roster at the next Olympics (remember, no NHLers).

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Speaking of which, it’s PTO season. A few names came in on the wire, including Eric Gelinas in Montreal, Ryan White in Vancouver, Tanner Glass in Calgary, and Jared Cowen in Colorado. Maybe the most interesting name on that list is that of Brandon Pirri, who Florida is bringing back at least on a tryout level.

You may recall that in the 2014-15 season, Pirri took the waiver wire by storm by scoring 22 goals (but just two assists!) in just 49 games. (Insert obvious Cy Young winner joke here.) Since then, Pirri has scored just 22 goals over his past two seasons while mainly being used as a spare part by several teams.

That icetime number is an interesting one, particularly last season. Pirri has never averaged more than 15 minutes of icetime in a season. Among Rangers who played at least 40 games last season (19 players), Pirri had the second-lowest icetime per game total at 12:16 per game. Yet he had the fourth-highest power-play icetime per game on the team at 2:33 per game. To use Steve’s analogy of Sam Gagner, Pirri is another example of the NHL’s version of the designated hitter. Nine of Pirri’s 18 points came on the man advantage.

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What are the chances that Pirri lands a spot with the Panthers? PTOs are usually a longshot. But it’s worth mentioning that the Panthers finished with the 24th-ranked power play last season, so he could fill a need. During this offseason the Panthers have added Radim Vrbata and Evgeny Dadonov for the right side, but after that there’s not a whole lot there. If young Jayce Hawryluk isn’t ready to make the team, Pirri could fill a spot on the third or fourth line as a power-play specialist with limited even-strength minutes.

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Thomas Vanek could be entering professional tryout territory, which is a bit of surprise to me considering that there should still be interest in him in mid-sized fantasy leagues. In one league I had an owner place a bid on Vanek, but I had to rule it invalid because a player has to be the property of an NHL team in order to be eligible.

The Canucks have at least kicked the tires, according to the Vancouver Province. The Canucks already have 80 million roster forwards (actually, only 15). But if you’re the Canucks and you want to ice a semi-competitive team, you bring in anyone that can score.

The Red Wings are still reportedly interested as well, according to the Detroit Free Press. But they still need to try to sign RFA Andreas Athanasiou first. Does anyone else also have the Wings finishing dead last in the Eastern Conference?

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Rene Bourque is taking his talents to the Swedish Elite League after 13 NHL seasons (TSN).

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So if Zach Parise continues on his current pace from the last few seasons, he will finish below 40 points for the first time since his rookie season of 2005-06. Over the past three seasons, that’s a decline from 62 points to 53 points to 42 points last season.

There are numerous reasons to be concerned. For one, the multiseason 30-goal scorer took fewer than 200 shots in a season in which he played at least 65 games for the first time since his rookie season. And oh yeah, there’s that games played total. Parise has averaged 70 games played over the past four seasons with very little variance from that average. So when you draft Parise, you have to budget for around 10-12 games missed due to an injury or two.

In spite of his name value, Parise should be drafted outside of the top 100 in single-season leagues (he’s 115 at NHL.com, and even that might be too kind). In the Dobber Top 300 Keeper rankings, he’s all the way down to 139. Maybe there’s an opportunity for improvement if he plays a few more games… or if he can reach 200 shots on goal again… or if his shooting percentage increases by a point or two… or he finds the right linemates. So a lot has to go right for a rebound to occur.

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.

5 Comments

  1. finminer 2017-08-30 at 07:17

    I’ve always wondered what the limiting factor has been in Pirri’s game. In what aspect is he so deficient that he can’t stick with a team except as a DH? Foot speed? Defense? Forechecking? Any insight?

  2. Striker 2017-08-30 at 10:05

    Capfriendly may show the Canucks with 15 forwards currently but are Magna, Rodin, Boucher & Chaput really NHL forwards? Gaunce is also almost waiver fodder & any of the 5 could be waived & sent to the AHL & it’s impact meaningless. Burmistrov is just a notch above but waiving him also wouldn’t be an issue. That leaves the Canucks with plenty of room to take on Vanek if so inclined.

  3. Pat Quinn 2017-08-30 at 10:08

    Whoa what a coincidence the Capitals 31-in-31 on Dobberprospects is up today as well! I’ll just slide in here to tell people to give it a read! (You too Ian!)
    http://www.dobberprospects.com/august-31-in-31-washington-capitals/

    • Ian Gooding 2017-08-30 at 16:40

      Nice plug there Pat, and nice read as well. Doesn’t sound like you’re too thrilled about the Caps’ offseason moves, even though there are a few prospects that could make their way onto the team this year.

      • Pat Quinn 2017-08-30 at 20:28

        Thanks for indulging in my shameless self promotion haha.

        I am thrilled they opened up spots, I am not thrilled they kept Oshie over Johansson, lost Schmidt, and kept Grubauer

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