Every Sunday this off-season, we'll share 20 Fantasy Thoughts from our writers at Dobber Hockey. These thoughts are curated from the past week's "Daily Ramblings".

Contributors: Ian Gooding, Michael Clifford, and Neil Parker
 

1. At the risk of stating the obvious, it's so important that a goalie have a good defensive team in front of him to increase his fantasy value. For example: last year, Robin Lehner had a .920 save percentage while Tuukka Rask’s was .915. However, Lehner’s goals against average has nearly a full half-goal higher (0.45 to be exact) because he faced so many shots. Even though Lehner saved pucks more often, he saw so many pucks that his GAA was murdered.

That is what makes Jake Allen intriguing as a fantasy option. Last year, the Blues allowed the fourth-fewest adjusted shot attempts per minute, pretty much neck-and-neck with Washington.  If the team repeats that performance, and Allen can be around league-average, his GAA should hover around 2.40 again and that’s fine for fantasy.

2. It’s PTO season. A few names came in on the wire, including Eric Gelinas in Montreal, Ryan White in Vancouver, Tanner Glass in Calgary, and Jared Cowen in Colorado. Maybe the most interesting name on that list is that of Brandon Pirri, who Florida is bringing back at least on a tryout level.

You may recall that in the 2014-15 season, Pirri took the waiver wire by storm by scoring 22 goals (but just two assists!) in just 49 games. (Insert obvious Cy Young winner joke here.) Since then, Pirri has scored just 22 goals over his past two seasons while mainly being used as a spare part by several teams.

That ice time number is an interesting one, particularly last season. Pirri has never averaged more than 15 minutes of ice time in a season. Among Rangers who played at least 40 games last season (19 players), Pirri had the second-lowest ice time per game total at 12:16 per game. Yet, he had the fourth-highest power-play ice time per game on the team at 2:33 per game. To use our own Steve Laidlaw’s analogy of Sam Gagner, Pirri is another example of the NHL’s version of the designated hitter. Nine of Pirri’s 18 points came on the man advantage.

What are the chances that Pirri lands a spot with the Panthers? PTOs are usually a longshot. But it’s worth mentioning that the Panthers finished with the 24th-ranked power play last season, so he could fill a need. During this offseason, the Panthers have added Radim Vrbata and Evgeny Dadonov for the right side but after that there’s not a whole lot there. If young Jayce Hawryluk isn’t ready to make the team, Pirri could fill a spot on the third or fourth line as a power-play specialist with limited even-strength minutes.

3. Here are two players well past the age of 30 that could make their NHL debuts this season.

Veteran KHL winger Danis Zaripov will be allowed to sign in the NHL after his KHL contract was terminated because of a positive doping test. Certainly this is a decision that not everyone will agree with. He has scored at or near point-per-game numbers throughout his KHL career. At this stage in his career (age 36), I wouldn’t expect a team to make him into a top-six forward, but he could provide a team with scoring depth and may even sneak into the fantasy conversation if he can land a one-year contract somewhere.

Chris Lee, who was the only Canadian player at the World Hockey Championship that has never played in the NHL, has been offered a professional tryout by the LA Kings. Even though he will already be 37 in October, Lee scored 65 points in 60 games as a defenseman in the KHL last season. That was a KHL record. Pretty remarkable, especially for someone at his age who was never drafted. If Lee doesn’t crack the Kings’ roster, I’d expect him to be considered for the Canadian roster at the next Olympics (remember, no NHLers).

4. Things were looking bleak for Elias Lindholm until he went on a scorching 41-game run beginning in late December last year. He posted nine goals, 36 points and 96 shots during that span and saved his season. It was the breakout campaign that had been in the making for the 22-year-old forward, and while it might be difficult to show significant improvement in 2017-18, he offers a nice offensive floor.

Additionally, it was encouraging to see his shot volume climb during that heater. He might never be an efficient scorer but his 6.7 shooting percentage over the past two seasons is as close as it gets to being unsustainably low.

Lindholm's fantasy stock is boosted by his eligibility at right wing, which is also helpful for in-season flexibility. The Hurricanes are trending in the right direction and Lindholm is just entering his prime, too.

5. Craig Anderson keeper owners should be happy. Anderson’s goals-against average improved by half a goal per game (2.28 in 2016-17 from 2.78 in 2015-16), while his save percentage improved from .916 to .926. Under coach Guy Boucher’s system, Anderson has gone from being a substantially risky fantasy option to a steady number two option in 12-team fantasy leagues.   

6. On the Blue Jackets’ signing of playmaking center Alexander Wennberg to a six-year contract worth $29.4 million, or $4.9 million per season. Wennberg now slots in as the Jackets’ fourth-highest paid forward, after Artemi Panarin, Brandon Dubinsky, and Nick Foligno.

In the real-life world, this seems like a fair deal for the Blue Jackets, considering that Wennberg is a potential first-line center for the Jackets going forward. However, there are two things that concern me if you are planning to target Wennberg in a salary cap league. Or, any fantasy league for that matter.

First is Wennberg’s reliance on assists and low shot total. Of his 59 points last season, only 13 were goals. Yes, he was a top-20 option in the assists category last season but he tied for 190th in goals scored. Fantasy non-factors such as Jay Beagle and Matt Cullen scored that number, as well. Moreover, he took only 109 shots, which was 12th on the Blue Jackets and tied for 297th in the league. Two important fantasy categories where he is not pulling his weight. For more, check out this Geek of the Week from last season.

Secondly, you may play in a league that separates centers from wingers. Last season, Wennberg was the 20th-highest scoring center in the NHL. To compare, the 20th-highest scoring left wing had 53 points, while the 20th-highest scoring right wing had 51 points. (Right now, right wings are selling for a premium in my auction league.) So, if you had to pick between a 60-point center and a 60-point winger, you’d probably choose the 60-point winger. Factor in my first reason and Wennberg is a player I’d allow to fall in drafts for a while.

I’m not suggesting at all that he won’t reach 60 points this season. But we’re talking about a watered-down 60 points that won’t offer much in the way of peripherals.

7. I think the Canucks’ Thomas Vanek signing pushes Nikolay Goldobin back to the AHL, where he will receive the minutes that he needs. Same with Jake Virtanen, whose AHL numbers (19 points in 65 games) prove that he isn’t NHL-ready. And for the first time in a while, Canucks’ callups from the AHL will be true prospects as opposed to stopgap options. I wouldn’t even rule out Brock Boeser starting the season in the AHL, although I agree with our Fantasy Guide’s probability of 80 percent that he makes the Canucks’ roster.

Vanek’s value will probably dip slightly with this move. Over a full season with the Canucks and whichever team he ends up with at the deadline, I’d expect around 20 goals and 45 points. Vanek also gives the Canucks another power-play option for what was an anemic man-advantage unit last season (29th  in the NHL). His arrival could potentially bump someone like Sven Baertschi or Loui Eriksson off the power play completely. But there will be legitimate competition in training camp as this large group of forwards attempts to impress the new coach.

8. For those looking as to how Evgeny Kuznetsov  can break the 70-point mark again despite not playing on the top line for the team: If he can become an integral part of the top power-play quintet, he could add 10 points.

I think there’s a chance Andre Burakovsky could take some of that PP time but I would wager on it largely being Kuznetsov for the majority of the season. That makes the young Russian centre a better bet to return a top-50 ADP value than if Marcus Johansson  (now with New Jersey) were still around.

9. As written about during a Ramblings reviewing the Flyers, this was a team that was reliant on power play production not only for their team’s success but the success of their top-end fantasy options like Claude Giroux and Jakub Voracek. This was no less true for the newest St. Louis Blues forward, and former Flyer, Brayden Schenn.

It wasn’t just bad luck that got the Flyers to score so little at five-on-five but they generated the ninth-fewest adjusted high-danger shots at five-on-five despite managing the 10th-most shot attempts. That means a lot of shots they took at five-on-five were, relatively speaking, not dangerous. With Nolan Patrick being their only real significant addition this offseason, unless the young defensemen take a huge step up in generating offence starting in the defensive zone and through the neutral zone, this team could struggle again to score at five-on-five.

The void left by Schenn, then, on the top power play unit is to be very much coveted. As a left-handed shot, there are a few in-house options to take his spot. The coaching staff could offer it to Sean Couturier or Michael Raffl, trying to extract as much value as the latter as possible. Rather, outside of the four remaining holdovers from the top PP last year, I think it’s more of a rotating situation. I would personally like to see Travis Konecny get a chance, but it feels like it will be a fluid top PP spot all year. It could be frustrating for fantasy owners, and more useful for DFS than season-long leagues.

10. The Montreal Canadiens have a centre problem in that they don’t have any.

Okay that’s obviously hyperbole but with the seeming unwillingness for either the prior or current coaching regime to give Alex Galchenyuk the top pivot slotting, there is concern here. Phillip Danault seems to be a quality player but I don’t think he’s suited for the top-line position. Tomas Plekanec may have been a few years ago but he’s not the player he used to be. Galchenyuk, due to defensive issues (both real and perceived), doesn’t seem likely to get that position for any length of time either.

It seems Claude Julien at least wants Jonathan Drouin to get a look at centre in training camp for the Habs. That had been mused by fans and fantasy owners since the trade but now we have some sort of confirmation.

Drouin playing beside Max Pacioretty would obviously be a big help to the younger forward’s fantasy value. Pacioretty is easily the most potent offensive threat the team has with annual 30-goal reliability. In turn, Drouin would be more of a shooter than either Danault or Plekanec, and that could help Pacioretty’s assist totals of which he’s never amassed 35 in a single season.

How long this actually lasts is a completely other question entirely. If Drouin can stick there, however, he would likely be playing with the team’s top scorer both at five-on-five and on the power play, which should give him some additional ice time. With enough time, it would also give him the very valuable triple-position eligibility on Yahoo, as he’s both a left and right winger at the moment. This is something to keep an eye on as training camp progresses because if Drouin does indeed become the team’s top-line centre, it’s a huge boost to his prospects, and in turn would hinder Galchenyuk’s severely.

11. This is likely a situation that I’ll just completely avoid this year, which is a change because this was a situation I was all-in on last year, drafting both Roberto Luongo and James Reimer in more than one league.

Luongo wasn’t outright bad last year as a .915 save percentage is fine when the league average is .913. I don’t think this team improved in the offseason, though, and he’ll still, at best, be in a timeshare with Reimer. It’s nice that he won’t cost much at the draft table but even at that cost, I think I’d rather a backup on a good team like Philipp Grubauer or Aaron Dell.

12. I suppose there are two concerns with Scott Darling in Carolina:

– Can his limited but stellar track record be relied upon for fantasy owners?    

– Does he end up in some sort of timeshare with Cam Ward?

As for the second question first: please, god, no. I can’t possibly imagine a team using a 33-year-old goalie with a .907 save percentage over his last 206 starts in any sort of timeshare beyond purely a backup. However, I also thought the same thing last year, and the year before. Coaches are weird and sometimes can’t let go of their binky. Ward is the binky in Carolina.

But I just truly, madly, deeply cannot fathom Ward eating into Darling’s starts in a significant manner. If that does happen, though, it’ll break me, shake me and force me to crash and burn.

As for the track record, I get it. Goalies are notoriously difficult to predict, and beyond maybe three or four goaltenders, how many can really be relied upon? That’s even with guys like Tuukka Rask, Corey Crawford, and Henrik Lundqvist having several excellent seasons over the last five years or so. With the sample we do have, though, Darling has been very good; in his 3272 minutes of five-on-five over the last three years, his high-danger save percentage is .847. For reference, Holtby’s is .833, Murray’s is .842, and Price sits at .865. All of them are above average.

13. What appeared to be a slimmed-down Alex Ovechkin skated at the Capitals’ practice facility on Tuesday. Ovechkin tipped the scales at 239 pounds last season, so he appeared to take on a challenge from the team to improve his conditioning.

For the first time in four seasons, Ovie was not able to reach 50 goals. In fact, he dropped to just 33 goals, underwhelming those who grabbed him with an early first-round pick in fantasy drafts last season. He did make up for it by posting his highest assist total in six seasons, resulting in an overall drop of just two points. Still, Ovechkin took 85 fewer shots in spite of finishing second in that category to Brent Burns last season.

The news could have some fantasy implications for a number of different reasons. For one, a more svelte Ovechkin could be a faster Ovechkin. That could obviously lead to more goals and more points, which fantasy owners would welcome. But an improvement in one quality could result in another quality gets worse.

That quality would be his physical play; namely, his hit totals. Ovechkin finished tied for 19th in the NHL with 216 hits last season and has finished with at least 200 hits over each of his last four seasons. The Capitals obviously need the soon-to-be 32-year-old Ovechkin to at least maintain his scoring level, so the hits total could suffer as a result. That hits total has already decreased over each of the last two seasons. Tom Wilson has already taken over as the Caps’ most physical player, leading the team in hits over each of the last two seasons.

The question is, could that change result in an overall improvement to Ovechkin's fantasy value? In this case, the answer is yes. I'd be more bullish on Ovechkin as a result.

14. If Zach Parise continues on his current pace from the last few seasons, he will finish below 40 points for the first time since his rookie season of 2005-06. Over the past three seasons, that’s a decline from 62 points to 53 points to 42 points last season.

There are numerous reasons to be concerned. For one, the multi-season 30-goal scorer took fewer than 200 shots in a season in which he played at least 65 games for the first time since his rookie season. And oh yeah, there’s that games played total. Parise has averaged 70 games played over the past four seasons with very little variance from that average. So when you draft Parise, you have to budget for around 10-12 games missed due to an injury or two.

In spite of his name value, Parise should be drafted outside of the top 100 in single-season leagues (he’s 115 at NHL.com, and even that might be too kind). In the Dobber Top 300 Keeper rankings, he’s all the way down to 139. Maybe there’s an opportunity for improvement if he plays a few more games … or, if he can reach 200 shots on goal again … or, if his shooting percentage increases by a point or two … or, he finds the right linemates. So, a lot has to go right for a rebound to occur.

15. Outside of an injury-riddled 2015-16 season, Kyle Turris has progressed into a high-floor fantasy contributor since the lockout-shortened year. He recorded a career-high 27 goals last year and has also notched 55 points or more in each of his past three full seasons. The 28-year-old center also led all Senators forwards in ice time – 19:30 per game – by almost an entire minute in 2016-17.

With a go-to role and a number of capable wingers to compliment him, Turris checks out as a reliable option to target again this fall. His 185 shots, 17 power-play points and 47 PIM last year shouldn't be overlooked, either. That's sneaky cross-category production. At this stage of his career, his offensive ceiling is capped but there's a lot to like about having him as a supporting piece on your roster.

16. There are obvious red flags with Tyson Barrie – especially in leagues included plus-minus rating. However, even when everything went wrong around him, the 26-year-old defenseman still recorded 38 points.

In any formats not including plus-minus, or in points-only setups, Barrie is a strong late-round option. He began 58.2 percent of his five-on-five shifts in the offensive zone and posted an impressive 50.0 Corsi For percentage, while the Avalanche as a team ranked 23rd with a 48.6 mark. Barrie is also the undisputed power-play quarterback and averaged 3:04 of ice time per game with the man advantage. Additionally, after registering 21 power-play points in 2015-16, Barrie recorded just 10 last year.

With a little improvement up a man, it will be difficult for Barrie to fall short of the 40-point mark again in 2017-18. Just note, he does very little in the peripheral categories, so offense is Barrie's only relevant fantasy return.   

17. Signing with New Jersey doesn't appear to be a fantasy dream for Will Butcher at first sight but it was a smart decision for the Denver alum.

He should immediately receive top offensive minutes while playing a sheltered five-on-five role. The Devils don't have a strong power-play quarterback, so Butcher has the potential to fill that role. Additionally, the Devils – all of a sudden – have a nice collection of offensive pieces. A power-play unit of Taylor Hall, Marcus Johansson, Kyle Palmieri and Nico Hischier has potential, and Butcher would likely be the focal point on the blue line.

There is always the potential for Butcher to begin the season in the minors but considering the laundry list of suitors for his services, sticking in the NHL was likely an unofficial term of his contract with the Devils. He'll have to play his way off the team, as opposed to playing his way onto the team.

18. What a difference a year can make. This time last year, Shayne Gostisbehere was routinely being drafted as a top-12, maybe top-15 defenseman. Now, Yahoo has him as about a top-30 option.

Like other Flyers skaters, Gostisbehere was heavily reliant on power-play production last year; 23 of his 39 points came with the man advantage. If he wants to reach the heights that fantasy owners have in mind, the team needs to start scoring more at five-on-five. Even with his struggles last year, he was still often used on the top PP unit, so that at least provides some sort of safety net for him. He was overvalued going into drafts last year but I feel this is much too far a drop and is a great value at this ranking.

19. PK Subban is a player that, in a full year, should be able to post double-digit goals and 50-plus points. He can post solid peripherals like at least two shots on goal per game, a healthy amount of penalty minutes (even in a down year in 2016-17 he probably would have cracked 50 in a healthy season), and hopefully that plus-minus can rebound, though there’s no telling with Pekka Rinne in net.

My one concern with Subban is the power-play production. His 16 PPPs last year were a five-year low and that includes the lockout-shortened season. He averaged 2:30 per game with the man advantage last year, and 165:25 overall in 66 games. For reference on how much less he received in Nashville than Montreal, the year before he played 309:28 with the man advantage in 68 games. In fact, he averaged more than two minutes less on the power play with Nashville than he did with Montreal the year before. That is a gigantic decrease and is the big reason why his upside is 20 PPPs if he played a full year.

So long as he’s healthy, I don’t think there’s a lot of downside to this selection. He has four straight years with at least 0.61 points per game, which works out to at least 50 points per 82 games for four years. That is a solid base to work with. I just don’t think there’s the same upside in Nashville that he had in Montreal just because he’s no longer the main focal point on the blue line for the PP, Andrei Markov aside. In that sense, this is a selection done more out of safety than upside, which is just fine as a blueliner taken inside the top-10 at the position.

20. A month ago, when discussing how to approach drafting teammate defensemen, I said there would be no chance Kris Letang should be drafted as a top-12 defenseman. It’s not a matter of talent; he has the talent and the situation to be a top-5 fantasy defenseman almost regardless of format. Rather, it’s simply a matter of being able to stay on the ice for 70 games, let alone 82. It’s kind of sad because this was a potentially Hall of Fame career that is being completely derailed by injuries.

It’s also a matter of risk tolerance taking Letang as your first defenseman in a fantasy league, particularly if you have to use one of your first three or four picks. If he can play 70 games – something he’s done only once in the last five 82-game seasons – he can absolutely be worth this pick. The question is whether he can even get close to 70 games. It’s not worth the risk to me but there will be people out there will to take that risk.

Have a good week, folks!!