Vanek to Van City, Wennberg Signing, The Guy Boucher Effect?

The Canucks added to their growing list of forwards on Friday, signing free agent winger Thomas Vanek to a one-year contract worth $2 million. As you may have already seen, Neil provided the Fantasy Take for you yesterday. As a Canucks’ fan, here’s my take on it.

There are two ways to look at this signing. The plus side for the Canucks is that the signing is low-term with a fairly low cap hit, Vanek gives them a proven top-9 scorer who will fill a spot if one of the youngsters isn’t ready yet, and the Canucks have another potential trade chip at the deadline. The downside is that the signing potentially robs a younger player from a spot on the roster while stalling the rebuild as a whole.

Who could that player be? Here is a very preliminary look at the Canucks’ lines on opening night. (No, Striker, I did not copy yours. I wrote this before I read your comment in the Fantasy Take, so maybe great minds think alike.)

Baertschi – Horvat – Boeser

Sedin – Sedin – Eriksson

Vanek – Granlund – Gagner

Gaunce – Sutter – Burmistrov

I have no idea where that leaves Reid Boucher, Michael Chaput, and Jayson Megna, although there was plenty of room for them last season. Plus you have Derek Dorsett and Anton Rodin, both of whom are question marks due to health. So if you think my combinations are totally wrong, they could well be. But aside from Baertschi/Horvat on one line and the Sedins on another, you could stick the names into a blender and those would be new coach Travis Green’s line combos, as far as I’m concerned.  

Yes, I think this pushes Nikolay Goldobin back to the AHL, where he will receive the minutes that he needs. Same with Jake Virtanen, whose AHL numbers (19 points in 65 games) prove that he isn’t NHL ready. And for the first time in a while, Canucks’ callups from the AHL will be true prospects as opposed to stopgap options. I wouldn’t even rule out Brock Boeser starting the season in the AHL, although I agree with the Fantasy Guide’s probability of 80 percent that he makes the Canucks’ roster.

Vanek’s value will probably dip slightly with this move. Over a full season with the Canucks and whichever team he ends up with at the deadline I’d expect around 20 goals and 45 points. Vanek also gives the Canucks another power-play option for what was an anemic power play last season (29^th in the NHL). His arrival could potentially bump someone like Sven Baertschi or Loui Eriksson off the power play completely. But there will be legitimate competition in training camp as this large group of forwards attempts to impress the new coach.

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The other major news over the past couple of days was the Blue Jackets’ signing of playmaking center Alexander Wennberg to a six-year contract worth $29.4 million, or $4.9 million per season. Wennberg now slots in as the Jackets’ fourth-highest paid forward, after Artemi Panarin, Brandon Dubinsky, and Nick Foligno.

In the real-life world, this seems like a fair deal for the Blue Jackets, considering that Wennberg is a potential first-line center for the Jackets going forward. However, there are two things that concern me if you are planning to target Wennberg in a salary cap league. Or any fantasy league for that matter.

First is Wennberg’s reliance on assists and low shot total. Of his 59 points last season, only 13 were goals. Yes, he was a top-20 option in the assists category last season, but he tied for 190^th in goals scored. Fantasy non-factors such as Jay Beagle and Matt Cullen scored that number as well. As well, he took only 109 shots, which was 12^th on the Blue Jackets and tied for 297^th in the league. Two important fantasy categories where he is not pulling his weight. For more, check out this Geek of the Week from last season.

Secondly, you may play in a league that separates centers from wingers. Last season, Wennberg was the 20^th-highest scoring center in the NHL. To compare, the 20^th-highest scoring left wing had 53 points, while the 20^th-highest scoring right wing had 51 points. (Right now, right wings are selling for a premium in my auction league.) So if you had to pick between a 60-point center and a 60-point winger, you’d probably choose the 60-point winger. Factor in my first reason and Wennberg is a player I’d allow to fall in drafts for a while.

I’m not suggesting at all that he won’t reach 60 points this season. But we’re talking about a watered-down 60 points that won’t offer much in the way of peripherals.

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Speaking of peripherals, if you’re looking for a hits and blocked shots specialist in your deep league, I give you… Luke Schenn.
 

👊 #FactsOnlyFriday 👊 pic.twitter.com/sUgrNvC3PF

— Arizona Coyotes (@ArizonaCoyotes) September 1, 2017

Add in Schenn’s 85 penalty minutes from last season and I think he’s an option to consider in head-to-head leagues that count at least two physical categories (penalty minutes, hits, blocked shots).

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Is the Guy Boucher effect a real thing in Ottawa? If you’re not sure what I’m talking about, take a look at the following video for an extreme example from his time as the Lightning’s head coach.

Okay, I know it wasn’t that bad last season. But certain coaches rightly or wrongly hold the reputation of not being fantasy friendly, and Guy Boucher is one of them. Add to that the perception (again, right or wrong) that the Senators played “boring” hockey during last year’s playoffs, and there may be some fantasy owners that don’t want to touch Ottawa players not named Erik Karlsson.

First, let’s look at the Senators’ offense as a whole. In 2016-17 the Sens scored 2.51 goals per game, which was 22^nd in the NHL. This was down nearly a third of a goal per game from 2015-16, when the Sens scored 2.80 goals per game. It’s clear Boucher had an effect tightening the Sens’ style of play, as the goals allowed per game average dropped from 2.94 in 2015-16 to 2.56 in 2016-17.

Playoffs aside, you may already know how this affected Bobby Ryan. In 2016-17 Ryan dipped to 25 points from 56 points the season before. Granted, he played nearly 19 fewer games in 2016-17, but his points-per-game average fell from 0.69 P/GP to 0.40 P/GP.

So how did this affect the Sens’ other scorers? There were mixed results. Derick Brassard struggled in his first season in Ottawa (39 points in 81 games), although he hasn’t played for any Sens’ coach other than Boucher. Regardless, it’s still worth mentioning that he dropped from 0.73 P/GP to 0.47 P/GP. He’s another Sens’ scorer who suffered.

But it wasn’t all doom and gloom. Mark Stone dropped seven points, but his P/GP only dropped from from 0.81 to 0.76. He spent a good portion of the season with Brassard as his pivot. Mike Hoffman, meanwhile, made a modest improvement of two points in spite of playing four fewer games (an improvement to 0.82 P/GP from 0.76 P/GP). And Kyle Turris experienced a true bounce-back season with an improvement of 25 points, which once games played is factored in worked out to be 0.71 P/GP, up from 0.53 P/GP.

So yes, Guy Boucher makes me a bit nervous, considering that I have Stone and now Hoffman on one of my keeper teams. But at least the Craig Anderson keeper owners should be happy. Anderson’s goals-against average improved by half a goal per game (2.28 in 2016-17 from 2.78 in 2015-16), while his save percentage improved from .916 to .926. Under Boucher’s system, Anderson has gone from being a substantially risky fantasy option to a steady number two option in 12-team fantasy leagues.  

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For more fantasy hockey information, follow me on Twitter @Ian_Gooding.