Ramblings: Ryan Ellis aftermath, Mikhail Sergachev and more D talk (Sept. 8)
Neil Parker
2017-09-08
Here's a handful of quick-hit news, notes and analysis from yesterday's happenings.
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Ryan Ellis is expected to be out until January following offseason knee surgery. This is a serious fantasy blow to the Predators because it means that Alexei Emelin will likely be counted on to step into a larger role. That's not good.
Emelin is off the fantasy radar outside of cavernous settings including hits and penalty minutes. But more importantly, his career minus-2.7 Relative Corsi For percentage won't improve as he enters his 30s.
Over the past few seasons, we've seen more and more defensemen of Emelin's ilk become an on-ice hindrance to their teams. Ellis, by comparison, posted his first minus Relative Corsi For percentage (-1.7) last season, but owns a 1.7 mark for his career.
Additionally, Ellis' work with the man advantage will be missed.
P.K. Subban or Mattias Ekholm could both see a slight uptick in minutes, and there's a chance that Nashville turns to utilizing a top-heavy unit with the man advantage without Ellis. Last season, the Predators primarily rolled out two power-play units and gave them each similar ice time. The real unknown will be how Nashville adjusts its personnel up a man.
Unfortunately, that is likely to be a wait-and-see situation. There could be signs throughout training camp, but until the games matter, it's going to be difficult to project. A four-forward unit quarterbacked by Roman Josi first, and then have three forwards with Subban and Ekholm seems likely, though.
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Rasmus Andersson enters training camp 10 pounds lighter than he did last year. The 20-year-old Swede acclimatized himself to North America with a strong AHL showing last season, so he projects to push for a roster spot out of camp.
Logging big minutes with Stockton to begin the season seems more likely than sitting in the press box or playing a third-pairing role with Calgary out of the gate. The additional AHL seasoning could pay off in the event of injury or down the stretch when Calgary needs a boost.
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Anton Slepyshev will miss the entire preseason with an ankle injury he sustained training. His status for Opening Night is unknown at this point. This is bad timing for Slepyshev, as his window to push for a secure middle-six role — or higher — is closing.
Ryan Strome is an immediate beneficiary, and Jesse Puljujarvi's shot at meaningful minutes to start the season also improves. The wildcard is Drake Caggiula. Paying attention to Edmonton's line combinations in training camp could unearth a late-round gem over the first month — or more — of the year.
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This is how the injury optimism begins:
Dorion on Derick Brassard: Â "The way he's progressing, we are hoping he can play really early in the season."
— Ian Mendes (@ian_mendes) September 7, 2017
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Dallas beat writer Mike Heika noted that one area of weakness for the Stars could be right-wing depth. It's an interesting observation because Denis Gurianov is lurking, and in another piece, Heika highlights the potential for Brett Ritchie.
There are a lot of moving pieces behind the established Stars. Radek Faksa's extension slots him into a sizeable role, whereas Dallas clearly sees something in Tyler Pitlick after inking him to a three-year contract.
Most likely, there are going to be a handful of fleeting fantasy-relevant stretches for a number of the Stars' secondary scorers. The battle will be figuring out whos and whens.
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Nico Hischier and Will Butcher have made the Devils are intriguing young team for me. The offseason addition of Marcus Johansson helps their outlook, and Cory Schneider is a ripe candidate for statistical correction after last year's anomaly.
Here's a quick read about what to watch at New Jersey's upcoming Prospect Challenge tournament.
Obviously, the Devils are unlikely to make a significant move up the NHL standings, but is there enough talent there right now to be more helpful for our fantasy purposes?
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In a similar situation to Rasmus Andersson, Mikhail Sergachev is unlikely to spend the entire season with the Bolts. Tampa Bay already has enough NHL blue liners on the roster, and if Sergachev plays fewer than 40 games with the Lightning, THEN Tampa Bay receives an additional second-round pick in the 2018 Entry Draft as a condition in the Jonathan Drouin deal.
Second-round picks have become coveted assets in the league, and it would be surprising if Tampa Bay didn't ensure they were able to acquire the selection from the Canadiens.
For our fantasy interests, Sergachev's keeper/dynasty stock will likely drop with his likely demotion to the AHL. In turn, that's a perfect opportunity to make a buy-low pitch. It wouldn't be surprising to see Sergachev finish the season with a 25- to 35-game stint with Tampa Bay.
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Here's an in-depth look at Vadim Shipachyov. My stance hasn't changed since originally writing up his signing in May. He's going to be a serviceable fantasy asset, but in order to be anything more, he'll have to make hay with the man advantage. The Golden Knights have enough talent to run out a respectable No. 1 power-play unit, so the potential is there for Shipachyov to record 20 PP points.
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Here are some defenseman targets heading into draft season.
Drew Doughty, LA: The cross-category production Doughty provides shouldn't be underrated. offers. At 27, he's still in the heart of his prime and will continue to play significant minutes. After a mediocre fantasy showing last year, Doughty should also check out as a ripe value in most circles.
Alex Pietrangelo, STL: Here's more Pietrangelo hype. For those who've missed the past positive press, Pietrangelo flourished following Kevin Shattenkirk's departure and has been a high-end fantasy contributor in the past. A return to the 50-point club is well within reach after posting 48 last year.
John Klingberg, DAL: With Dallas' offseason upgrades, Klingberg sets up to take another step forward offensively in 2017-18. He's one of just seven defensemen to record at least 10 goals and 40 points in each of the past three seasons. Additionally, in a down year, Klingberg still posted 13 goals and 49 points in 2016-17.
Oscar Klefbom, EDM: The Andrej Sekera injury hands the power-play quarterback job to Klefbom to start the season. Klefbom is a high-volume shooter that flashed tremendous upside last year, and at 24, he's just entering his offensive prime. It's also worth noting that no defenseman logged more ice time with Connor McDavid than Klefbom in 2016-17. That’s a nice fantasy bonus.
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Enjoy the weekend, Dobberheads.
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If Sergachev players fewer than 40 games with the Lightning, *THEN Tampa Bay receives an additional second-round pick in the 2018 Entry Draft as a condition in the Jonathan Drouin deal.
Please take the time to proofread. This is a great site but such mistakes make you unnecessarily look unprofessional.
I’ll send you my copy next time for the final edit — email?
Thanks for reading.
LMFAO
No grammatical errors there lol
Hey Mr. Proofreader: why didn’t you catch the other error? Didn’t you take the time to proofread?
Thanks Bryzz, I think dobber has a good enough name to make the occasionnal mistake.
Regarding Rasmus Andersson chances of making the Flames out of camp. Does this have an impact on Spencer Foo making the club?
I know Andersson is a Dman, but too many “rookies?”
Sorry, I don’t have much to offer on this. Both are likely AHL candidates unless they excel in camp and injuries strike.