Will Sidney Crosby ever reach 90 points again?

For our final winter Cage Match tournament, we’re doing a 180 to focus on skaters who aren’t living up to expectations or who might otherwise be on the decline. These are either players you drafted with a certain expectation of what they’d produce and have disappointed, or for whom their best days just might be behind them. In short, skaters seemingly on a downward slide that won’t reverse itself either this year or in the future.

Excluded Players

As with the previous two tournaments (accessible here and here), goalies are not included as voting choices. Simply put, there aren’t enough of them to form their own tournament/bracket and they don’t lend themselves to comparison to skaters. I promise to try my best to find a way to work them into a tournament in 2018. There are also no players currently over the age of 30, since with them I figured a slowdown in production, although perhaps in some cases surprising in view of their totals from recent years, isn’t entirely shocking. After all – and as covered in cage matches this summer- age 30 is already past prime for both defensemen and forwards. So don’t be surprised that certain otherwise arguably deserving age 31+ players (e.g., Duncan Keith, Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns, Corey Perry, Brent Seabrook) aren’t included as voting choices.

Lastly, I tried to limit this to players who are still likely on fantasy teams (or radars) in most leagues. That means you shouldn’t be surprised at not seeing the likes of Ryan Strome and Bobby Ryan, among others, despite not being age disqualified.

How Voting Will Work

Each player has been put into a “never again?” point range. If, for whatever reason, you think he won’t reach that number ever again in a season, then vote for him. Let me emphasize – we’re not just talking about just 2017-18; you have to think the player won’t produce at or above his “never again?” number this season or any future season. For some players their “never again?” number is well less than their highest ever point output (listed in parentheses next to each player) because it’s already clear they won’t reach that career best number again, but less so what their exact ceiling might be going forward.

As with the prior two tournaments, the voting poll will allow for multiple selections, which means you should vote for any and all players you think won’t reach their “never again?” number in 2017-18 or any future season. So vote for one player, a couple of players, a bunch of players, or even all of them if you think each and every one won’t reach his ”never again?” number going forward.

And remember, fellow readers will be looking to the poll results for guidance, so try to be objective. In other words, don’t decide your vote(s) based on personal views or who might be hurting your fantasy team. Consider each player based on the totality of his present – and likely future – circumstances to hone in on the best objective choice(s).

All voting will again take place in the Hockey Hockey Hockey Hockey area of the DobberHockey Forums. I’ll put a direct link to this week’s poll at the end of the column. But without further ado, here are your voting choices, separated into their respective “never again?” point total ranges.

NEVER AGAIN 90+ POINTS?

Sidney Crosby (Career High = 120 points)

Although Crosby has scored no fewer than 84 points in each of the past three seasons, he’s also finished below the 90-point threshold in all three. And this after never previously having tallied fewer than 102 points in any season where he played 75+ games. It’s difficult to bet against Crosby having at least one more year of big scoring in him; however, the questions is – can a 30+ year old still even score 90+ points in today’s NHL? Maybe not, as the last time it occurred was back in 2010-11. Although Crosby’s per game ice time thus far this season is higher than it’s been since his last 90+ point campaign, his ability to insert himself into the scoring picture is not what it once was, with his IPP having declined in each of the past two seasons. It’s a tough call – I’ll be curious to see where your votes land.

NEVER AGAIN 80+ POINTS?

Nicklas Backstrom (Career High = 101 points)

Fresh off 86 points last season, would you believe that was Backstrom’s first time hitting the 80-point mark since 2009-10, and only his third 80+ point season? There’s also the reality that Evgeni Kuznetsov, who signed a mega deal this summer, is staking a claim as the #1 pivot in Washington, or at least more of a 1B than he had been. Backstrom’s PP and total ice times are as strong as ever, but where the key might lie is in his shots on goal, as last season he fired 160 in 82 games, for his highest per rate since 2013-14, when he finished with 79 points. This season he’s below that pace; and with he, like Crosby, having turned 30 this year, we might have to get used to 70-79 points being the new ceiling for Backstrom.

Jamie Benn (Career High = 89 points)

After seasons of 87 then 89 points, Benn slipped to just 69 in 79 contests last season and is languishing at a similar pace thus far this season. Are we seeing the Ken Hitchcock effect, or is Benn simply slowing due to his playing style catching up to him during what should still be his prime? It could be a combo of both, as there are no signs of bad puck luck, worse deployment, or lower SOG volume we could point to for hope of him getting back on track. Benn’s best days might indeed be behind him.

NEVER AGAIN 60+ POINTS?

Cam Atkinson (Career High = 62 points)

Just a year ago Atkinson was firing on all cylinders with point-per-game scoring. He slowed as the season wore on however, and thus far his 2017-18 has been a major letdown, with him even being scratched for a December contest. Subtracting that scorching stretch of 55 or so games last season, Atkinson has been a 45-50 point player by and large. It’s also curious that his poor play comes right after signing a $41M deal in November. Before we write him off though, his luck-metrics last season leave realistic room for improvement and his shots on goal rate is still strong. The issue is he plays for a coach who isn’t exactly known for letting go of grudges easily, so this might be an ongoing concern.

Matt Duchene (Career High = 70 points in 71 games)

The long-awaited shoe finally dropped, with Duchene being shipped out of Colorado. And since then he’s done…….pretty much nothing. Granted, Ottawa has been a train wreck of a team of late; however, some of that now has to fall on Duchene’s shoulders. Maybe he just needs to get back some of the confidence he lost in recent seasons with the Avs? Then again, perhaps in moving from one culture of losing to another Duchene’s motivation – and, with that, his production – might not ever rebound.

Tyler Johnson (Career High = 72 points)

Speaking of players perhaps written off too early, Johnson has put together a December to remember, bringing him into range for a 60+ point campaign. But after the inconsistency we saw in the past two seasons, is there hope he can sustain this pace? Quite possibly, as his luck metrics are low enough to allow for realistic room to grow, and with that would logically come more points. Sure, to see him post 70+ again might be a long shot, but dismissing him as having the potential for 60+ might be premature, especially on such a potent team.

Ryan O’Reilly (Career High = 64 points, plus 60 points in 71 games)

It might be tempting to blame O’Reilly’s poor 2017-18 start on the struggles of Buffalo as a team. And don’t get me wrong – that’s not helping matters. But ROR’s fantasy fate is more tied to the arrival of Jack Eichel, as that has reframed ROR’s role into that of a second line center who plays more of a third line shut down role, much like Ryan Kesler in Anaheim. And guess who hasn’t scored more than 58 points since coming to Anahem, despite – like ROR – getting ample time on PP1? Yup, Kesler. And although Kesler is older, he also plays for a team less in shambles than Buffalo, which might mean that the new normal for poolies who own ROR is to get used to sub-60 production.

Max Pacioretty (Career High = 67 points)

Over the past few seasons, there were few surer things in fantasy than Pacioretty, as no matter who he played with and how many goals his team scored, he could be counted on for 60-67 points. Although some seasons saw him have hot and cold stretches, there are concerns that what we’re seeing from him in 2017-18 might suggest, at 29, his best hockey is behind him. Looking deeper, however, his IPP is below 50% after being between 70 and 75% for each of his six previous seasons, which suggests the points will come and he’s likely not tasted 60+ for the last time in his career.

Ondrej Palat (Career High = 63 points)

If only Palat could somehow replicate the last 20 games of each season, since in both of the two most recent campaigns he posted point-per-game numbers over that time frame. Yet for whatever reason Palat’s numbers in his team’s other roughly 60 games have not been up to par since posting 63 points back in 2014-15. What’s more, his PP and total ice time numbers are down even as compared to last season, and his luck metrics aren’t poor overall. He seems to be the forgotten man when it comes to Tampa forwards, and accordingly might just be a “one and done” member of the 60-point club, even on a high-scoring team like the Lightning.

Jonathan Toews (Career High = 76 points)

Most poolies have finally come to grips that Toews is indeed the poster boy for players whose real-world value far exceeds their fantasy worth. But could we have reached a stage where he shouldn’t even be counted upon for 60 points per season? His IPP is down a bit for 2017-18, but so too is his ice time, while his shorthanded duty is ticking up. Not a great combination when it comes to scoring, which Toews didn’t seem to be preoccupied with even when his team was more offensively potent. Also, although he’s only 29 he’s likely played more total games (between playoffs, Olympics, etc.) than many 30 or even 31 year olds, so he’s bound to be slowing down just in the normal course.

NEVER AGAIN 50+ POINTS?

Derick Brassard (Career High = 60 points)

After Brassard emerged with ten points in his first eight games this season, there was hope among poolies that he was going to fulfill the lofty expectations that were placed upon him when he was dished to the Senators prior to last season. Yet since then he’s been scoring at below a point per every other game and, at age 30, might just be on straight downward trajectory. Still, can we really write off even 50 points from Brassard in a future season? Maybe yes, as since coming to the Sens his IPP has been terrible and his team shooting percentage not so bad, suggesting that scoring is occurring while he’s on the ice but he’s not finding ways to be involved. It’s that type of disinterest that could linger, affecting seasons to come.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Career High = 55 points in 75 games)

After OEL’s 2014-15 campaign, poolies had him penciled in for even bigger and better things, especially with an up-and-coming Arizona core of young forwards to play with. Since then though, OEL has morphed into a barely point per every other game defenseman. But before we write him off entirely, there’s the reality that last season he was playing hurt and had the emotional weight of his mother’s illness and ultimate passing. Plus, this season his shots on goal rate is back to where it was during his more productive seasons, while his team shooting percentage is actually lower than it’s been since 2013-14 and 2014-15, suggesting a rebound is imminent. Between those factors and Arizona being bound to improve before OEL – who’s only 26 – exits his prime, he seems like a good candidate for at least one more season at or above the 50-point mark.

Nick Foligno (Career High = 73 points)

Like Johnson, no one is expecting a duplication of Foligno’s career season of 70+ points. But is he toast at age 30? He managed 51 points last season, yet let’s not forget that was after starting with 35 points in 38 games. The fact that he could string together a run like that makes it more plausible he’ll be able to manage to clear the 50-point threshold at least once more before all is said and done. Then again, this season his PP time is down and he’s seeing more duty on the PK. Also, with young Blue Jackets players staking claims to more and more Ice Time, and a coach who’s not beholden to keep players in the top six just because of their contracts, Foligno could fall enough out of favor to make 50 points a long shot.

Kyle Okposo (Career High = 69 points)

Even before his mystery illness/ailment last season, Okposo wasn’t taking Long Island by storm after signing a huge UFA deal. He’s failed to show chemistry with Jack Eichel, and that means one of two things – landing on the second line alongside Ryan O’Reilly, who’s often matched against the best other teams have to offer, or playing on the third line. Add to that concerns about whatever ailed him last season might be having lingering effects, and the fact that Okposo will turn 30 before this season is over, and suddenly 50 points seems less automatic and perhaps more of a goal he’ll struggle to obtain.

NEVER AGAIN 40+ POINTS?

Justin Faulk (Career High = 49 points)

Not so long ago the biggest complaint about Faulk was him being a fast starter. Yet here we are nearing the midpoint of 2017-18 and he’s put up fewer points than many stay-at-home rearguards. Faulk’s IPP is less than half even the lowest mark of any of his past three seasons, so things can indeed only improve; however, unlike the past the Canes have another option – in the form of Noah Hanifin – who could seize some of the prime offensive minutes that had gone to Faulk by right/default.

Justin Schultz (Career High = 51 points)

Last season was a dream for Schultz, and poolies lucky enough to hop on his bandwagon. But many poolies sold high, fearing that Schultz posting great numbers for the first time since a rookie just when he happened to be playing for his NHL future were too coincidental to ignore. This season he’s been hit by injuries to an extent that it’s difficult to tell just what we might expect from him going forward, although the fact that he’s playing behind Band-Aid Boy Kris Letang makes it hard to foresee Schultz not getting the opportunity to crack the 40-point mark at least once again before all is said and done.

Link to Cast Your Vote(s) and No Column Next Week

To vote in the Tournament, click here. Remember – you can vote for as many players as you want. While you’re voting, be sure to post a comment on which player(s) you voted for a why, since my hope is this Tournament will be as useful for fantasy purposes as it is enjoyable.

Have a happy and safe holiday season and New Year. Cage Match will be taking a week off as I work on my content for the Midseason Guide, which you can order here. Look for a return to the cage match column you all know and love on January 10.