Geek of the Week: Connor McDavid Hasn’t Been Dominant
Scott Maran
2018-01-28
Connor McDavid hasn't been immune to the Oilers' struggles.
Despite the Edmonton Oilers’ struggles this season, there’s still no doubt in everyone’s mind that Connor McDavid is one of the most skilled players in the league. As deadly and talented as ever, McDavid torched the NHL last year for 100 points in 82 games. However, this season has been a bit of a different story, as McDavid has not been nearly as dominant. He’s still been great- just not as great as we came to expect. This slight decline has transferred to the fantasy hockey realm as well, as McDavid is far from the most valuable fantasy skater this season. After being one of the best players to own last year, McDavid has provided a lot less value for his fantasy owners through his first 50 games.
Last year in his sophomore campaign, McDavid continued his ascent into the NHL elites, leading the NHL in points by a wide margin and capturing the Hart Trophy as the league’s most valuable player. And though he wasn’t the number one most valuable player in fantasy hockey last year, he provided the fifth-most value out of all skaters (in an average 12-team Yahoo league measuring G, A, SOG, PPP, and HITS).
|
Rank |
FHG Value |
GP |
G |
A |
SOG |
PPP |
HITS |
3 |
93 |
79 |
16 |
56 |
166 |
33 |
93 |
|
4 |
87 |
77 |
17 |
54 |
218 |
27 |
67 |
|
5 |
84 |
82 |
30 |
70 |
251 |
27 |
34 |
McDavid was only one of five players to register an FHG Value of over 80 and had the 16th most shots on goal along with the most assists and points in the league. His hit totals were very low even for a superstar scorer yet his insane point totals and shots on goal negated that.
Yet this season McDavid has underperformed by his standards, falling short of the lofty expectations he set due to last year. Drafted on average first overall in Fantrax and Yahoo leagues, McDavid hasn’t even provided top 40 value (using the same league settings as earlier).
|
Rank |
FHG Value |
GP |
G |
A |
SOG |
PPP |
HITS |
42 |
39 |
45 |
17 |
28 |
160 |
7 |
47 |
|
43 |
38 |
49 |
15 |
39 |
153 |
11 |
17 |
|
44 |
38 |
46 |
12 |
42 |
80 |
22 |
8 |
Even though he’s still tied for the 10th most points in the league, it’s a far cry from the 100-point pace he set last year. With players like Nathan MacKinnon, Phil Kessel, and Claude Giroux having career years, McDavid’s offensive output has been bested by many players, lowering the value of his point contributions.
Since last season he was the only player to reach 100 points, his lofty point totals are a premium, making them more valuable in comparison to the rest of the players available. However, now that his point totals are much more human compared to the rest of the NHL, they’ve lost a lot of their value. Combine that with his weaker peripherals and you get around the 40th most value.
His shots on goal are still strong (not absolutely dominate but still 19th best), yet his hits and power-play point totals are horrendous. His 17 hits put him on pace for less than 30 total hits by the end of the year and he has only the 78th most power play points in the league (less than Jesper Bratt and tied with Henrik Sedin). McDavid’s still providing value (especially if you’re in a points-only league), but he hasn’t been even close to the elite fantasy option that he was last year.
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There was a good analysis of why this might be the case on a ramblings in Dobber months ago – PP opportunity. Last year McDavid drew the most penalties in the league. This year the refs are not calling nearly as many of the egregious penalties that should be called on players nailing McD.
While the Oilers indeed stink this year and McDavid has to be some part of that, it’s surprising this article seems to ignore the drawn penalties/PP time factor. Or if it was part of the above analysis, it’s not cited.