NHL Picks: Closing out the regular season with 63% success

Adam Mark

2018-04-07

Welcome back Dobberheads! It's the last Saturday of the regular season, and thus, my last column for the year. First off, thanks to all of you who have read/commented from week to week! Hopefully these picks and game notes have helped you in some shape or form throughout the season. For those of you that have been here since the beginning, you'll know what a journey it's been to get to 63%, and now I can rest easy in the offseason knowing that I can pretty much take my YOY average to the bank.

 

Fantasy wise, I had quite a disappointing end to my season. In my salary league, Braden Holtby pretty much singlehandedly dropped me from 1st to 4th. In my main keeper, I lost a tie breaker in the semi finals, and then lost by one point for the bronze due to a herculean three-point night from Jamie Benn. Better luck next year I guess…

 

One thing I'm often asked about throughout the year in regards to making picks is how to stay ahead in the bankroll department. For me, the system I've come to trust is 70% gut, 30% trends. I've tracked every bet I've made over the past 4 years and can safely say that it's worked out quite well for me. Trusting in the "system" and not getting crazy when I'm down for a week or two has seriously helped a lot. I know a lot of people who take a bad beat or two, try to double down, and blow their entire roll with no plan on how to come back.

 

To quote BCLC, know your limit and play within it. Don't ever bet more than you can afford to lose, and rather than trying to make a quick buck on a risky bet, bet multiple smaller smart bets. Hell, why not even just make picks for a year without putting any money on the line just to see how you fare? If you're above 60% then maybe think about tossing some action in here and there. If not, sports betting might not be in the cards for you.

 

While I'll be participating in the Dobber Experts Playoff Picks, I may as well give you a sneak peak on who I'm taking. While matchups have yet to be set in stone, I'm taking Nashville in the West and Boston in the East (with Nashville taking the cup). My dark horse picks? Anaheim & Philadelphia.

 

Anyways, best of luck to all of you in the playoffs and have a fantastic summer. We'll see you all next season!

 

Personal Record: 330-193 (63%)

Dobber Record: 90-54 (63%)

 

New York @ Philadelphia (3:00 PM EST)

Pick: Philadelphia – Home Team Victory – H

Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Ottawa @ Boston (7:00 PM EST)

Pick: Boston – Home Team Victory – H

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Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Montreal @ Toronto (7:00 PM EST)

Pick: Toronto– Home Team Victory – H

 

Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Buffalo @ Florida (7:00 PM EST)

Pick: Florida – Home Team Victory – H

Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Chicago @ Winnipeg (7:00 PM EST)

Pick: Winnipeg – Home Team Victory – H

Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Anaheim @ Arizona (9:00 PM EST)

Pick: Anaheim – Visitor Team Victory – V

Confidence Level: 5/5

 
 

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UPCOMING GAMES

Jan 22 - 19:01 N.J vs BOS
Jan 22 - 19:01 TOR vs CBJ
Jan 22 - 21:01 COL vs WPG
Jan 22 - 22:01 L.A vs FLA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
DARREN RADDYSH T.B
LANE HUTSON MTL
MIKE LUNDIN
KAAPO KAKKO SEA
PAVEL DOROFEYEV VGK

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
JAKE OETTINGER DAL
LOGAN THOMPSON WSH
LEEVI MERILAINEN OTT
IGOR SHESTERKIN NYR
SAM MONTEMBEAULT MTL

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency CGY Players
26.2 MATT CORONATO BLAKE COLEMAN MIKAEL BACKLUND
19.7 MARTIN POSPISIL NAZEM KADRI JONATHAN HUBERDEAU
15.8 YEGOR SHARANGOVICH ANDREI KUZMENKO RORY KERINS

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