NHL Picks: Closing out the regular season with 63% success

Adam Mark

2018-04-07

Welcome back Dobberheads! It's the last Saturday of the regular season, and thus, my last column for the year. First off, thanks to all of you who have read/commented from week to week! Hopefully these picks and game notes have helped you in some shape or form throughout the season. For those of you that have been here since the beginning, you'll know what a journey it's been to get to 63%, and now I can rest easy in the offseason knowing that I can pretty much take my YOY average to the bank.

 

Fantasy wise, I had quite a disappointing end to my season. In my salary league, Braden Holtby pretty much singlehandedly dropped me from 1st to 4th. In my main keeper, I lost a tie breaker in the semi finals, and then lost by one point for the bronze due to a herculean three-point night from Jamie Benn. Better luck next year I guess…

 

One thing I'm often asked about throughout the year in regards to making picks is how to stay ahead in the bankroll department. For me, the system I've come to trust is 70% gut, 30% trends. I've tracked every bet I've made over the past 4 years and can safely say that it's worked out quite well for me. Trusting in the "system" and not getting crazy when I'm down for a week or two has seriously helped a lot. I know a lot of people who take a bad beat or two, try to double down, and blow their entire roll with no plan on how to come back.

 

To quote BCLC, know your limit and play within it. Don't ever bet more than you can afford to lose, and rather than trying to make a quick buck on a risky bet, bet multiple smaller smart bets. Hell, why not even just make picks for a year without putting any money on the line just to see how you fare? If you're above 60% then maybe think about tossing some action in here and there. If not, sports betting might not be in the cards for you.

 

While I'll be participating in the Dobber Experts Playoff Picks, I may as well give you a sneak peak on who I'm taking. While matchups have yet to be set in stone, I'm taking Nashville in the West and Boston in the East (with Nashville taking the cup). My dark horse picks? Anaheim & Philadelphia.

 

Anyways, best of luck to all of you in the playoffs and have a fantastic summer. We'll see you all next season!

 

Personal Record: 330-193 (63%)

Dobber Record: 90-54 (63%)

 

New York @ Philadelphia (3:00 PM EST)

Pick: Philadelphia – Home Team Victory – H

Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Ottawa @ Boston (7:00 PM EST)

Pick: Boston – Home Team Victory – H

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Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Montreal @ Toronto (7:00 PM EST)

Pick: Toronto– Home Team Victory – H

 

Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Buffalo @ Florida (7:00 PM EST)

Pick: Florida – Home Team Victory – H

Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Chicago @ Winnipeg (7:00 PM EST)

Pick: Winnipeg – Home Team Victory – H

Confidence Level: 5/5

 

Anaheim @ Arizona (9:00 PM EST)

Pick: Anaheim – Visitor Team Victory – V

Confidence Level: 5/5

 
 

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UPCOMING GAMES

Dec 23 - 13:12 N.J vs NYR
Dec 23 - 14:12 TOR vs WPG
Dec 23 - 19:12 DET vs STL
Dec 23 - 19:12 CBJ vs MTL
Dec 23 - 19:12 BOS vs WSH
Dec 23 - 19:12 FLA vs T.B
Dec 23 - 19:12 PIT vs PHI
Dec 23 - 19:12 NYI vs BUF
Dec 23 - 20:12 NSH vs CAR
Dec 23 - 20:12 MIN vs CHI
Dec 23 - 21:12 UTA vs DAL
Dec 23 - 21:12 VAN vs S.J
Dec 23 - 22:12 VGK vs ANA

Starting Goalies

Top Skater Views

  Players Team
JACKSON LACOMBE ANA
LANE HUTSON MTL
PATRIK LAINE MTL
SHANE PINTO OTT
JONATHAN HUBERDEAU CGY

Top Goalie Profile Views

  Players Team
MACKENZIE BLACKWOOD COL
SPENCER KNIGHT FLA
DAVID RITTICH L.A
LUKAS DOSTAL ANA
JACOB MARKSTROM N.J

LINE COMBOS

  Frequency DAL Players
20.6 SAM STEEL COLIN BLACKWELL OSKAR BACK
19.8 JASON ROBERTSON ROOPE HINTZ MAVRIK BOURQUE
13.8 LOGAN STANKOVEN WYATT JOHNSTON JAMIE BENN

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