In minor news, Tobias Enstrom has gone home. The long-time Thrashers/Jets’ defender has signed with his former Swedish club, MODO. He was immediately named team captain. MODO has fallen on hard times in recent years. Once an SHL powerhouse, the team was relegated to the Allsvenskan in 2016 and hasn’t made the playoffs in the second tier yet.

 

Enstrom apparently received NHL interest but not enough to stay in North America. Once upon a time, the puck-moving defender was a true fantasy asset, twice cracking the 50-point barrier. Ce la vie.

 

Enjoy Örnsköldsvik – home to Peter Forsberg, Markus Naslund, the Sedin Twins and Victor Hedman. Not bad for a city with the same population as Campbell River, BC. (35,000)

 

**

 

Bad luck is a thing. Over the long haul, bounces usually tend to even up. However, a player can go long stretches with the puck not going in and/or having a poor on-ice save percentage. This will result in a low PDO.

 

Some players who experience low PDO’s over the course of a full season are usually in line to trend closer to the 1000 mark – or even, the following year. Those players may also slip in drafts due to perceived deficits that can potentially be explained by that poor luck.

 

Sure, some of these guys are battling father time, others just aren’t that great any more or are stuck on trash teams. But some will be looking to rub the rabbit’s foot and see an uptick. Abysmal goaltending will be a factor once again for many, but perhaps they’ll be in line for a few more bounces in 2018-19.

 

A few fantasy-relevant, or potentially fantasy-relevant guys to keep an eye on and their 2017-18 PDOs:

 

Too Low PDO (I’m a poet…and I know it)

 

Joe Thornton 963

Max Pacioretty 967

Sidney Crosby 969

Duncan Keith 970

Jonathan Drouin 972

Matthew Tkachuk 975

Jake Guentzel 976

Kevin Shattenkirk 979

Patrick Kane 982

Leon Draisaitl 984

 

Conversely, here are a number of players who played a very fortunate PDO-pace in 2017-18.

 

Too High for These Guys

 

Auston Matthews 1069

William Nylander 1057

Yanni Gourde 1053

William Karlsson 1050 

Filip Forsberg 1044 

Jonathan Marchessault 1041 

Ty Rattie 1039 

Patrik Laine 1036

Claude Giroux 1035 

David Pastrnak 1035

Steven Stamkos 1033 (consistently high the last three years)

 

This isn’t to say that Matthews will take a big step back and Thornton will return to a point-per-game pace. But it is good knowledge to have when considering bounce-back candidates and those in line to regress.

 

Even though I don’t like where Chicago is going, I expect something of a bounce back from Duncan Keith and Patrick Kane. I use the word bounce back loosely as Kane's 76 points in 82 games last year aren’t anything to sneeze at. But with Nick Schmaltz's continued development, I’m looking at 80-85 for Kane once again.

 

Meanwhile, Keith had an abysmal season by his standards. Yet despite his advanced age, I feel that diminished product was something of a mirage. He remains the only true candidate to run the point on the top power-play unit and a return to the 40-plus point zone is quite doable.

 

Finally, people have almost forgotten about Kevin Shattenkirk. Injuries and adjustment derailed his first season in New York but he’s on track to be healthy for training camp and should provide a nice bump on the Rangers top power-play unit. He’ll inevitably miss some games as he always does. But 40-odd points in 60-odd games shouldn’t surprise anyone.

 

**

 

Over on DobberProspects, I released my Top 62 prospects for the 2019 NHL Entry Draft. This is shaping up to be a strong class. The cream will be fantasy-relevant in a hurry. No point waiting to learn more about these young guys.

Check it out here.

Cam Robinson's #2019NHLDraft Rankings – Preliminary Top 62 (August 2018) @DobberProspects https://t.co/LPYz8I7Cvw pic.twitter.com/PKf4g3GpR3 — /Cam Robinson/ (@Hockey_Robinson) August 24, 2018  

 

**

 

When exploring high-end defense options, the same 10 or so names always come up. Karlsson, Burns, Hedman, Ghost, Klingberg, Subban, Carlson, Barrie, Krug, Josi…

 

But there are a few blueliners that I feel could jump up into that conversation this year.

 

Matt Dumba

 

Here’s a guy who just posted one of the more underappreciated 50-point seasons by a 23-year-old in recent memory. He owns the pedigree and performance to leap into the next tier. The Wild blueliner has improved his point-per-game totals in each of his five NHL campaigns. He clicks on what appears to be a sustainable eight percent conversion rate and still hasn’t been given regular top power-play duties.  

 

That last part should change in 2018-19

 

Minnesota has employed balanced power play units for a couple of seasons now. Ryan Suter has led the blue line in power play time on ice for ages, but even his deployment dipped down to two minutes per game for the middle 40 games of the season. When Jared Spurgeon got hurt, Dumba was elevated to the top unit and unsurprisingly looked strong.

 

He had never hit 40 points and had recorded a modest 12 power play points in three consecutive years. However, the difference last season was 37 even-strength points. That number represented the sixth most of any NHL defender. As mentioned, his metrics were steady and sustainable in all situations. If he can carve out that top unit role away from the 33-year-old, Suter (who is coming off a nasty broken ankle) then 50-points may be the floor for Dumba.

 

**

Morgan Rielly

 

Every year we’ve been waiting for Morgan Rielly to be the man in Toronto and start tossing around big point totals. And every year, it was Jake Gardiner who saw the better deployment. And to be honest, I didn’t blame Mike Babcock. Rielly was able to learn how to play in an all situations role. Gardiner was able to thrive in a sheltered role. He was maximizing his assets.

 

However, last season saw the two virtually split the top unit deployment and Rielly took that big step forward we’ve all been waiting for. Career highs in assists (46), points (52), shots (182), and PPPs (25). And maybe most importantly, his short-handed time-on-ice was nearly cut in half.

 

Now the Leafs welcome John Tavares onto their squad. No big deal, just adding one of the truly premier power play producers and high-end centres in the league. That will add a nice boost to Rielly’s production in all situations.

 

The 24-year-old will be looking to set a few more career-highs in 2018-19.

 

**

Ryan Ellis

 

The Predators are a scary team. They continue to add firepower up front and boast the best (and most cost-effective) defence corps in the league. And the least respected of the bunch is Ryan Ellis.

 

Eliis produced jaw-dropping junior numbers for Windsor and Team Canada as a junior player. But the Hockey World was all too quick to dismiss the vertically-challenged defender when his creative and exciting brand of hockey didn’t immediately translate. Hell, forget immediately, it took him until his age 25 season to break 30 points.

 

He was drafted in 2009 but it was 2017-18 that things really started cooking

 

Offseason knee surgery shelved the 27-year-old for the first 30-odd games. However, when he came back, he was one of the most effective even-strength producers in the league. His 0.613 five-on-five points-per-game sat second among all defenders behind Erik Karlsson.

 

That’s right. Second.

 

All-in, Ellis produced nine goals and 32 points in 44 games – 27 at five-on-five. He elevated his shots-per-game to a career-high 2.5 and tied a career-high with 2:12 on the PP. He’s recorded nine or more goals in each of the last four seasons.

 

That power play deployment will be the difference moving forward. He won’t be getting on the top unit unless PK Subban goes down to injury. However, the Preds’ second man-advantage unit isn’t looking too shabby these days. That unit should be home to Kyle Turris, Eeli Tolvanen and regular defence partner, Roman Josi.

 

The Preds were the 12^th ranked PP in the league last season. They’ve now added one of the deadliest young snipers to their lineup in Tolvanen. It’ll take some time for the young Fin to get running full tilt, but his power-play effectivenesses should come quicker. And Tolvanen’s shot will open up more lanes for Ellis as teams sag off the right-side defender.

 

While I wouldn’t expect Ellis to push for a 60-point pace, he does have the goods and opportunity to produce very strong even-strength numbers and is in line for a career-high in PPPs as well. That tasty little eight-year 50-million dollar extension he signed a couple weeks back won't hurt his value to the organization either. 

 

**

 

I took to Twitter to grab a few questions to fill the remainder of the Ramble. But we're already at 1400 words so I'll keep these brief. 

 

Kuznetzov. Became a force by end of season. Gets better or too much partying and self satisfaction after cup win? — Vikingstad (@HockeyRockBeer) August 24, 2018

 

While the Stanley Cup hangover is a thing, I don't expect the Caps' joyous tour through early July to impact them much. Kuznetsov is in his prime and is passing to the puck to the best goal-scorer in the world. The entire squad may get off to a sluggish start, but I expect Kuznetsov to be one of the top 10 point producers when it's all said and done.

 

Will Matt Murray bounce back, or is he the next Cam Ward — brian (@brimui) August 24, 2018

 

Bounce back. If he can stay healthy, 35 wins and a save percentage in the 0.915-.919 range is very much in reach. 

 

 

How points for Point, Patrick, Rantanen this year? — Mark Pomfret (@finleysp_mark) August 24, 2018

 

Point – 73

Patrick – 56

Rantanen – 79

 

 

Who is your 2018-19 Fantasy Hockey MVP? — Mike Meyer (@DangerPowers19) August 24, 2018

 

Points Only

MVP – Connor McDavid

Runner-Up – Nate MacKinnon 

Surprise Stud – Alexander Barkov

 

Multi-Cat

MVP – Connor McDavid

Runner-up – Alex Ovechkin

Surprise Stud – Seth Jones

 

**

 

Thanks for reading and feel free to follow me on Twitter @Hockey_Robinson