Capped: Analyzing New Deals for Teravainen and Koskinen
The all-star break is here, and now it’s really getting down to crunch time in fantasy leagues. I’m going to start focusing on some trade deadline acquisitions for your fantasy leagues soon, but for now we’re going to look at two recently signed extensions: Teuvo Teravainen and Mikko Koskinen.
Teuvo Teravainen – Carolina Hurricanes
New Cap Hit: $2,860,000 (Two Years)
New Cap Hit: $5,400,000 (Seven Years)
Teravainen has been performing well ever since being paired with Sebastian Aho two years ago. Everyone was waiting for him to break out with Chicago, but he just didn’t get the opportunities. Here in Carolina he is a focal point of the offence, playing some of the highest offensive minutes on the team. On pace for his second 60-point season, he’s three points off of the pace from hitting 70 for the first time, perhaps not so coincidentally this is also his fourth season. All of his underlying statistics are also perfectly within the normal range. The breakout pace looks like it is here to stay.
Looking even further into some of the numbers, Teravainen’s numbers are extremely consistent. Since the beginning of last season, he has scored between 14-18 points every quarter. This has been achieved despite fluctuating power play deployment last season and seeing his average ice time in those quarters range anywhere from 15 to 18 minutes per game. The Hurricanes have developed some nice depth at forward, so they don’t have to rely on one line to play 20 minutes a night – a positive for the team, but a negative for the fantasy performances of those on the top line. Should head coach Rod Brind’Amour decide that he can throw his top line out for an extra minute or two per-game, we could see TT’s scoring jump into the 20-point range per quarter. The 80-point upside is still there, especially considering partner-in-crime Aho is still only in year three. Just wait for his big break out next year.
Using the CapFriendly contract compare tool, we can see that Teravainen fits in fairly well with the comparables. Of the group, only Mika Zibanejad is currently on pace to beat Teravainen’s scoring mark. Teuvo’s career high mark of 67-points is actually the highest of the group. It seems as though Carolina has managed to get themselves another solid contract, that should only look better as the years go on. Cap leaguers can count on the production from the Carolina winger for the extent of the deal. However, in leagues that count more than just scoring, the value takes quite a hit. He is actually a category killer in hits, and has yet to make it to 200 shots in a full season. Beware of your league categories before buying.
Mikko Koskinen – Edmonton Oilers
New Cap Hit: $2,500,000 (One Year)
New Cap Hit: $4,500,000 (Three Years)
Mikko Koskinen played four games in the NHL in 2010-2011, which did not go all that well. It took him seven years to come back, but he finally did this season, and has been the better of the two options in Edmonton. With Cam Talbot looking like he is on the way out the door as an unrestricted free-agent (or perhaps sooner with a trade), the majority of the starts for the Edmonton Oilers over the course of the next three and a half years appear to be Koskinen’s to lose.
If the Edmonton Oilers don’t fix the root of the problem, no matter what goalie comes along, it will be difficult to live up to the contract. With someone like Koskinen, who is struggling to keep up his consistency up even this season, this contract looks like trouble even before it is set to kick in. His save percentage is dropping in each quarter this season as well.
Meanwhile, the contract itself has a poor set of comparables. It’s too early to pass judgement on the Antti Raanta deal, but the other four in the top five have not exactly finished up as effective uses of cap space for those respective teams. If you check out the rest of the list, it doesn’t get any better. Additionally, Koskinen has never played more than 50 games in a season. Going into that uncharted territory for the first time as a 31-year old goaltender is surprisingly reminiscent of a few of the same comparable contracts below.
You should probably stay away if you’re in a fantasy league that rewards good goaltending.
That caps off this week’s record article, thanks for reading. As always, you can find me on twitter @alexdmaclean.
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