Ramblings: Oilers Anti-Clutch? Hamilton’s Third-Quarter Tendencies, the 45/55 Theory and More (Feb 04)

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The Devils have returned Mackenzie Blackwood to the AHL, reinforcing the idea that fantasy owners should, indeed, follow the contract. Cory Schneider is back from his second conditioning stint and at $6 million per year for another three seasons after this one. Both of his AHL stints were underwhelming, as he posted a 2-4-0 record and a 0.881 SV%. But because of his contract, he will get two of the next four starts for sure. If Schneider is healthy next season but still doesn’t find his game, then the Devils will again be in playoff trouble. Because the team will keep throwing him out there at the expense of a better goaltender on the sidelines (Blackwood). But if he struggles with injuries again, Blackwood becomes the guy and the Devils will be in the playoff hunt. Yes, despite this being a billion dollar business, politics and optics matter. And that’s the balancing act that fantasy owners get to enjoy.

Blackwood went 6-4-0 with a SV% of 0.926. But he lost two of his last three games and four games ago he allowed five in a win. So sending him down could be great timing in terms of maintaining confidence.

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One of the main pieces in Ottawa’s Jason Spezza trade, Nick Paul, has been placed on waivers.

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Ian touched on Corey Perry’s return in Sunday’s Ramblings but I want to dig a little deeper due to Patrick Eaves returning as well. Here were the line combos for the Ducks on Saturday:

So Eaves is getting buried, making him useless, Perry is still riding the wave of his Hart trophy from a hundred years ago even though he’s now a second-liner at best, a third-liner most probably. And Randy Carlyle stubbornly stuck to his line combos despite his team getting their asses handed to them. Bottom line: I don’t have any interest in any skater on this team except Rakell. Even Getzlaf has just four points in his last 17 games.

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My reaction, as a Scheifele owner, to Saturday’s game in progress:

Winnipeg scores 9 goals. How much money, in thousands, do you bet on Scheifele getting at least 1 point?

— Dobber (@DobberHockey) February 3, 2019

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When the Oilers have a one- or two-goal lead heading into the third period, immediately scramble for your phone, jump online and throw everything you can on an Edmonton loss. Bank on it! The most un-clutch team in pro sports.

After blowing a two-goal lead on Saturday in front of Cam Talbot, the Oilers blew a one-goal lead to Montreal on Sunday in front of Mikko Koskinen. In both cases it went to overtime. Now, if games were 40 minutes long they’d be golden.

Darnell Nurse picked up two assists including another one on the power play, further solidifying his PP spot for when Oscar Klefbom returns. Klefbom will likely get a taste of the PP and cut into Nurse’s ice time, but the cream will rise to the top. Klefbom was a game time decision Saturday but didn’t end up playing either weekend games. Nurse has 20 points in his last 25 games, with seven of them coming on the power play – these are stats that Klefbom has never hit, and frankly I think Nurse is just getting started.

This just in, Ty Rattie was back on the Connor McDavid line. But then again, so was Milan Lucic. Rattie had four shots on goal but zero points, so back to the fourth line for Rattie I’m sure (knowing Ken Hitchcock).

Carey Price returned from his suspension to lock down his fifth consecutive win. I’m not really sure of the point in suspending a goalie for one game when the goalie’s team is about to play back-to-back days. The NHL needs to examine this, and if the goalie deserves one game and next up are back-to-backs…then they need to give him two games.

With two points Sunday, Max Domi has eight in his last seven games. That being said, it’s interesting to note that Domi has just one power-play point in his last 32 games. He’s doing it all at even strength.

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The Caps have lost eight of their last nine games. And I can’t help but think that a big part of that is Tom Wilson taking some of the edge off his game. Dialing it back so that he’s a little further behind the line instead of always pushing against it. He has five points in his last 15 games after starting with 19 in 18.

With the 1-0 win, Tuukka Rask became Boston's all-time wins leader. He passed Tiny Thompson with his 253 wins. Rask, by the way, is 7-0-2 in his last 10 appearances and has a 1.70 GAA, 0.942 SV% in that span.

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After five goals in his last four games, new Carolina forward Nino Niederreiter was held off the score sheet Sunday. His arrival and subsequent chemistry with Sebastian Aho has allowed Coach Rod Brind’Amour to separate Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. With the offense spread out the Canes seem to be playing better (3-2-1) thanks to secondary scoring. Micheal Ferland (two points Sunday) has stayed with Teravainen, and the domino effect of El Nino’s arrival is Lucas Wallmark becoming the third member of the trio. Now, as soon as Brind’Amour decides to put Andrei Svechnikov on the Aho-Nino line instead of Justin Williams, I think the Hurricanes would have a decent one-two punch.

That being said, without a solid goaltender, the players are still probably a pipe dream.

Dougie Hamilton, by quarter so far this year:

And now check out last year’s quarterly breakdown:

That pop last year in the third quarter is interesting. And with two points Sunday he has five in his last four games in this, his third, quarter. These quarterly charts are side-by-side in his Frozen Tools player profile (under the career tab). I find them very handy. It’s still hard to believe that so many DobberHockey readers have yet to check out these profiles.

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Elias Lindholm is on a 10-game points streak and has 12 points in that span.

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My theory on Erik Gustafsson’s odds of long-term success is something I’ll coin the 45/55 theory. It’s one I apply to a defenseman is lesser-touted and/or a late-bloomer enjoying really strong success for a team with a handful of high-quality offensive prospect defensemen on the way. Will Henri Jokiharju, Adam Boqvist, Ian Mitchell or Chad Krys steal the spotlight? Well, if he finishes the season with 45 points, I think he’s vulnerable. If he gets to 55, he’s bulletproof. There’s something prestigious about a defenseman hitting the 55-point mark that keeps him safe from reduced PP time and faltering coach confidence. Gustafsson’s current pace is 54, but that is with a slow start due to gaining coach’s confidence (and thus ice time) so I’d accept 54. If he reaches those lofty totals come April, then the next wave of highly-skilled kids will have to be the Ivan Provorov to Gustafsson’s Gostisbehere (say that three times fast). Or the Sam Girard to Gustafsson’s Tyson Barrie. And so on.

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Interesting stat from Elias Sports Bureau – the most 18-year-olds to reach 25 points (i.e. actually reaching the 25-point mark while still being 18 years old) in a season is five, done in 1981-82 (Dale Hawerchuk, Bobby Carpenter, Ron Francis, Jim Benning, Doug Smith) and 1983-84 (Steve Yzerman, Dan Quinn, Sylvain Turgeon Brian Lawton, Cam Neely). Yesterday Jesperi Kotkaniemi became the second one this season (Rasmus Dahlin the other).

If Carter Hart wins his next game he'll become the fourth goaltender to record a personal winning streak of seven games before his 21st birthday. Carey Price was the last to do it (in 2008).

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We now have all of our trade breakdowns from the last month, all the way up until the Trade Deadline, gathered together on one page for your convenience. We'll update it as trades happen. You can check it out here.

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See you next Monday.